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Sunday, January 24, 2010

TCHONG / 4405 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 4.12
My TP: 2.53 + 0.1 = 2.63 (PE 12, EPS 0.2108, DPS 0.1)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.03% to 2.33% but lower than last year 4.47%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 6.84% to 745768 but profit also dropped 0.45% to 34432, mainly due to the currency volatility and global shortage of inventory accounted for much of the operating profit variance; As compare to last year revenue dropped 25.61% and profit also dropped 63.91%, mainly due to recession, Total Industry Volume(TIV) of new vehicles in Malaysia for the first nine months of 2009 fell by 7.5% to 397,619 units from 429,913
- Equity compare to last Q increased 0.54% to 1475408, assets increased 10.02% to 2203778 and liabilities also increased 35.98% to 728370; As compare to last year equity increased 5.16%, assets increased 7.16% and liabilities also increased 11.45%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 3.83% to 4070 and also higher than last year 22.15%
- Got FCF 211237 and NCF 48559
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.33% to 4.62% and also lower than last year 4.9%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.1287 to 0.4937 and compare to last year also increased 0.0279
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0527*4 = 0.2108, estimate PE on current price 3.31 = 15.23(DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-11-18 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-18 was 2.61 and lowest price on 2009-08-20 was 1.9. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0528*4 = 0.2112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.88/8.52 (DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 1.9 and lowest price on 2009-07-06 was 1.55. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0626*4 = 0.2504, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.19/5.79 (DPS 0.1)
- From date 2009-02-21 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 1.64 and lowest price on 2009-02-23 was 1.17. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0425*4 = 0.17, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.06/6.29 (DPS 0.1)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (declared 10% on Q2), 2008 = 0.1 (recommended 10% on Q4 and declared 10% on Q2), 2007 = 0.075 (recommended 10% on Q4 and declared 5% on Q2)


Friday, January 22, 2010

MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 6.48
My TP: 4.55 + 0.03 = 4.58 (PE 12, EPS 0.3792, DPS 0.031)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.5% to 9.26% and also higher than last year 6.49%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 9.51% to 200104 and profit also growth 33.39% to 35320, mainly due to increased level of activities; As compare to last year revenue growth 77.92% and profit also growth 336.75%, mainly due to increased level of activities
- Equity compare to last Q increased 11.72% to 381221, assets increased 18.23% to 628383 and liabilities also increased 29.9% to 247162; As compare to last year equity increased 30.49%, assets increased 63.87% and liabilities also increased 170.71%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 14.52% to 41596 and also higher than last year 37.5%
- Got FCF 80910 and NCF 80098
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.16% to 17.65% and also higher than last year 10.46%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0907 to 0.6483 and compare to last year also increased 0.3358
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate PE on current price 5.02 = 13.16(DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-11 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-11 was 4.1 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 3.28. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.42 (DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-05-14 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-14 was 3.51 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.46. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.07/9.48 (DPS 0.031)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-13 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-07 was 1.58 and lowest price on 2009-03-26 was 1.18. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.8/10.21 (DPS 0.045)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.016 (declared 5% on Q2 and 3% on Q1), 2008 = 0.045 (declared 7.5% on Q4, 5% on Q2 and 4% on Q1), 2007 = 0.08 (declared 8% on Q4, 4% on Q2 and 4% on Q2)


Thursday, January 21, 2010

PBBANK / 1295 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 10.71 + 0.55 = 11.26 (PE 13.62, EPS 0.786, DPS 0.55)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.02% to 5.79% but lower than last year 0.6%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 2.36% to 2495452 and profit also growth 6.13% to 678231, mainly due to a strong growth of net interest and financing income by 7.3% or RM86.8 million,
partially offset by higher other operating expenses by RM26.6 million; As compare to last year revenue drop 2.43% but profit growth 3.71%, due to a one-off goodwill income of RM200 million received from ING in respect of a regional strategic alliance on bancassurance distribution included in the previous year which is non-recurring in the current year
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 6.44% to 11715324, assets increased 3.87% to 217136154 and liabilities increased 3.73% to 205420830; As compare to last year equity increased 14.53%, assets increased 10.69% and liabilities also increased 10.48%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 2.27% to 692118 but higher than last year 0.01%
- Got FCF 7246168 and NCF 6950986
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.97% to 27.18% and also higher than last year 1.61%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.4591 to 17.5344 and compare to last year also decreased 0.6433
- 30 sen dividend declared
- Distribution of share dividend 68:1
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1965*4 = 0.786, estimate PE on current price 12(DPS 0.55) = 14.57
- From date 2009-10-16 to 2010-01-20 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2010-01-20 was 12.08 and lowest price on 2009-10-19 was 10.64. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.56/13.62 (DPS 0.55)
- From date 2009-07-21 to 2009-10-15 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-15 was 10.62 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 9.88. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.177*4 = 0.708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.22/13.18 (DPS 0.55)
- From date 2009-04-15 to 2009-07-20 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-20 was 10.3 and lowest price on 2009-04-22 was 8.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1744*4 = 0.6976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.05/11.18 (DPS 0.5)
- From date 2009-01-21 to 2009-04-14 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-02-19 was 9.15 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 7.05. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1949*4 = 0.7796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.1/8.4 (DPS 0.5)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.55 (declared 25% on Q4 and 30% on Q2), 2008 = 0.55 (declared 25% on Q4 and 30% on Q2), 2007 = 0.75 (declared 50% on Q4 and 25% on Q2)

Lesson learned
- EPS increased but highest price not increase, signal of over bought?


Tuesday, January 19, 2010

TOPGLOV / 7113 - 2010 Q1

My TP: 9.22 (PE 10.37, EPS 0.868, DPS 0.22)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.43% to 7.15% and also higher than last year 2.45%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 10.52% to 472300 and profit also growth 14.74% to 65208, mainly due to good cost control, management efficiency, glove quality improvement and also stronger demand due to the higher healthcare standards; As compare to last year revenue growth 23.33% and profit also growth 90.9%, mainly due to efficient and had adapted well to the challenging business environment resulting from cost saving measures implemented at all factories, improvements in product quality, productivity, as well as aggressive marketing strategies to sustain its world market leader position
- Equity compare to last Q increased 7.74% to 911454, assets increased 5.74% to 1197392 but liabilities decreased 0.17% to 285938; As compare to last year equity increased 25.4%, assets increased 7.74% but liabilities decreased 25.63%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 5.59% to 22663 and compare to last year also increased 11.74%
- Got FCF 70461, NCF 51211
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.51% to 13.81% and also higher than last year 4.96%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0249 to 0.3137 and compare to last year also decreased 0.2152
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.217*4 = 0.868, estimate PE on current price 11.42 = 12.9(DPS 0.22)
- From date 2009-10-09 to 2009-12-16 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-12-15 was 9.53 and lowest price on 2009-10-29 was 8.14. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.191*4 = 0.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/10.37 (DPS 0.22)
- From date 2009-06-24 to 2009-10-08 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-08 was 8.15 and lowest price on 2009-07-03 was 6.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1424*4 = 0.5696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/10.8 (DPS 0.15)
- From date 2009-04-08 to 2009-06-23 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-23 was 6.5 and lowest price on 2009-04-08 was 5.1. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1221*4 = 0.4884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13/10.14 (DPS 0.15)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.22(proposed 30% on Q4 and 7 sen on Q3), 2008 = 0.11 (proposed 12% on Q4 and 10% on Q3), 2007 = 0.1 (proposed 12% on Q4 and 8% on Q3)

Lesson learned
- TP should use highest PE estimated
- Can saw strong growth in revenue


Monday, January 18, 2010

NAIM / 5073 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 4.12
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: 4th quarter low result

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.27% to 3.29% but higher than last year 0.77%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.53% to 144460 but profit dropped 5.55% to 21396; As compare to last year revenue growth 10.84% and profit also growth 43.76%, mainly due to efforts in controlling costs and its associate, Dayang Enterprise Holdings Berhad, contributed 20% to the earnings of the Group
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.24% to 650695, assets increased 1.92% to 979075 and liabilities also increased 1.29% to 328380; As compare to last year equity increased 10.26%, assets decreased 5.96% but liabilities decreased 1.63%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 0.12% to 23374 and compare to last year also decreased 3.49%
- Got FCF -13763, NCF -2611
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 2.05% to 14.81% but higher than last year 3.39%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0047 to 0.5047 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0609
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3, estimate PE on current price 3.43 = 6.13(DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-17 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 3.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 2.65.
- From date 2009-05-27 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 2.85 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 1.84.
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-26 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-06 was 1.95 and lowest price on 2009-03-19 was 1.1.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03(declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.13 (declared 5 sen on Q4 and 8 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.15 (declared 8% on Q3 and 7% on Q1)


Friday, January 15, 2010

LEADER / 4529 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 1.16
My TP: 1.05 (PE 7, EPS 0.1452, DPS 0.03)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.24% to 2.49% but lower than last year 0.7%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.54% to 509775 and profit also growth 13.52% to 15831; As compare to last year revenue dropped 27.49% and profit also dropped 15.59%, mainly due to a 24% decline in revenue from the cable & wire business due to a steep decline in commodity metal prices
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.77% to 636412, assets increased 4.31% to 1216777 and liabilities also increased 6.05% to 580365; As compare to last year equity increased 8.12%, assets decreased 12% and liabilities also decreased 26.92%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 3% to 101325 and compare to last year also increased 4.33%
- Got FCF 199762, NCF 9846
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.17% to 3.11% and also higher than last year 0.44%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0282 to 0.9119 but compare to last year decreased 0.4373
- 1.5 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate PE on current price 0.92 = 6.13(DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-08-22 to 2009-11-30 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-09 was 0.825 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 0.725. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.21/5.43 (DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-21 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 0.85 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 0.64. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.3/5.43 (DPS 0.03)
- From date 2009-02-21 to 2009-05-29 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-13 was 0.71 and lowest price on 2009-03-16 was 0.4. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.88/3.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03(declared1.5 sen on Q3 and 1.5 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.03 (declared 1.5% on Q3 and 1.5% after 2007 Q4), 2007 = 0.03 (declared 1.5 sen on Q3 and 1.5 sen on Q1)


Thursday, January 14, 2010

HUAAN / 2739 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.66 (PE 10, EPS 0.066)
OSK TP: 0.87
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, metallurgical coke price at uptrend, low coal price

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 4.27% to 2.47% and also higher than last year 1.09%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 15.93% to 349834 and profit also growth 239.09% to 18470, primarily attributed to higher average price of coke; As compare to last year revenue dropped 29.6% because 37.9% reduction in the average price of coke but profit growth 57.7%, mainly attributed to the spread between the prices of metallurgical coke and that of coking coal that have widened adequately coupled with the gradually improving prices of the by-products
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.21% to 746322, assets decreased 0.96% to 852842 and liabilities also decreased 13.87% to 106520; As compare to last year equity decreased 11.84%, assets decreased 15.56% and liabilities also decreased 34.85%
- Got FCF 5300, NCF 5300
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 9.68% to 5.28% and also higher than last year 2.92%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.025 to 0.1427 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0504
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0165*4 = 0.066, estimate PE on current price 0.55 = 8.33
- From date 2009-08-18 to 2009-11-13 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-18 was 0.57 and lowest price on 2009-11-02 was 0.47
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-17 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.57 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 0.435
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 0.475 and lowest price on 2009-03-17 was 0.175
- http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html


Wednesday, January 13, 2010

OSK / 5053 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 2.15 (PE 10, EPS 0.21, DPS 0.05)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.19% to 2.34% and also higher than last year 1.17%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 2.11% to 227662 but profit dropped 6.56% to 34554; As compare to last year revenue dropped 8.29% and profit also dropped 36.75
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 14.35% to 1475564, assets increased 16.57% to 11028542 and liabilities also increased 23.45% to 9552978; As compare to last year equity decreased 11.87%, assets increased 40.97% and liabilities also increased 55.36%
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 28.62% to 217192 and compare to last year also decreased 32.54%
- Got FCF 150338, NCF 229209
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 1.41% to 15.18% but higher than last year 5.37%
- DE compare to last Q increased 1.9822 to 6.4741 and compare to last year also increased 2.8016
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0525*4 = 0.21, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 8.1(DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 1.56 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 1.38. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0570*4 = 0.228, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.83 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 1.56 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 1.29.
- From date 2009-02-27 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-11 was 1.45 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 0.83. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0240*4 = 0.096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.32/7.86 (DPS 0.075)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.025 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.075 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q4 and 5 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.1 (recommend 10 sen on Q4)


Tuesday, January 12, 2010

MMCCORP / 2194 - 2009 Q3

OSK TP: 2.95 (19 Jan 10)
My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.86% to 0.94% but lower than last year 0.34%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 0.68% to 2167473 and profit largely improved to 90534, mainly due to improvement in results from Zelan Berhad and better share of profit from Double Track project due to no adjustment for additional cost made but offset by lower performance in energy and utilities division due to lower capacity factor in Malakoff‟s power plants and write back of provision for doubtful debts in Aliran Ihsan Resources Berhad; As compare to last year revenue dropped 4.84% and profit also dropped 20.02%, the performance affected by lower contribution from the transportation and logistics division due to the impact of the economic downturn, share of losses absorbed from Zelan Berhad, had an exceptional gain due to the disposal of a subsidiary and impact on the overall margin for Double Track Project
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.55% to 9680548, assets increased 1.21% to 38134346 and liabilities also increased 0.76% to 28453798; As compare to last year equity increased 6.61%, assets increased 12.24% and liabilities also increased 14.29%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 2.77% to 3486246 and compare to last year also increased 13.62%
- Got FCF 321066, NCF 735577
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.85% to 4.18% but lower than last year 0.92%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0521 to 2.9393 but compare to last year increased 0.1977
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.035*4 = 0.14, estimate PE on current price 2.44 = 17.25(DPS 0.025)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-24 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-16 was 2.62 and lowest price on 2009-08-26 was 2.29.
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 2.73 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 1.77.
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.95 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 1.35.
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.025 (recommend 2.5 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.05 (recommend 5 sen on Q4)


Monday, January 11, 2010

KNM / 7164 - 2009 Q3

My decison: Not BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 2.07% to 1.61% and also lower than last year 4.17%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 4.35% to 458348 but profit dropped 55.3% to 31923, mainly due to higher operating costs; As compare to last year revenue dropped 38.58% and profit also dropped 69.13%, mainly due to the reflective of global economy slowdown and the full effect of intangible asset amortization arising from Borsig acquisition
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.5% to 1988575, assets decreased 0.24% to 4241256 and liabilities also decreased 2.53% to 2252681; As compare to last year equity increased 11.18%, assets increased 9.36% and liabilities also increased 7.8%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 82.14% to 8732 and compare to last year also increased 252.52%
- Got FCF 248752, NCF 20209
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 9.3% to 6.96% and also lower than last year 6.9%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0584 to 1.1328 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0355
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate PE on current price 0.8 = 24.23(DPS 0.015)
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-11-26 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-19 was 0.86 and lowest price on 2009-09-14 was 0.695. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-05 was 1.06 and lowest price on 2009-07-13 was 0.715. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-13 was 0.845 and lowest price on 2009-03-12 was 0.32. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.015 (approved 1.5 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.04 (approved 4 sen on Q4), 2006 = 0.05 (declared 5 sen after 2007 Q1)


Friday, January 8, 2010

KURASIA / 5097 - 2009 Q5

JF APEX Securities TP: 0.83OSK TP: 1.01
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue, high DE, bad cash flow

My study based on 2009 Q5 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 5.86% to 14.76% but compare to last year was rebound from loss
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 3.66% to 254966 and profit also drop 24.48% to 32215 mainly due to positive income tax at last Q, profit before tax is higher than last Q because stronger investment performance; As compare to last year revenue drop 16.27% but profit rebounded from loss, significant improvement was mainly driven by a very strong turnaround performance on the Group’s investment portfolio
- Equity compare to last Q increased 5.49% to 218260, assets increased 0.09% to 2299048 but liabilities decreased 0.44% to 2080788; As compare to last year equity increased 55.71%, assets decreased 4.92% and liabilities also decreased 8.66%
- FCF -3665, NCF -7594
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 3.48% to 12.64% but compare to last year was rebounded from negative
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.5677 to 9.5335 and compare to last year also decreased 6.7176
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q5 result announced = 0.0216*4 = 0.0864, estimate PE on current price 0.69 = 7.99
- From date 2009-08-28 to 2009-10-29 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-28 was 0.77 and lowest price on 2009-09-01 was 0.535.
- From date 2009-05-08 to 2009-08-27 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-27 was 0.58 and lowest price on 2009-07-08 was 0.35.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-07 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-06 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-04-03 was 0.24.
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.01826 (proposed 1.826 sen after Q1)


Wednesday, January 6, 2010

PELIKAN / 5231 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.65 (PE 10, EPS 0.063, DPS 0.02)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Risk for 4th Q

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 2.95% to 1.52% and also lower than last year 1.37%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 8.93% to 312567 and profit also drop 65.17% to 9340 because affected by seasonality which experience stronger sales in mid year resulting from the “back to school” season in Europe; As compare to last year revenue drop 8.1% and profit also drop 44.68% because lower sales due to declined consumer spending in Europe
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.5% to 614952, assets decreased 0.86% to 1570109 and liabilities also increased 2.91% to 955157; As compare to last year equity increased 17.18%, assets decreased 1.9% and liabilities also decreased 6.08%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 0.97% to 26979 but compare to last year decreased 4.77%
- Got FCF 20042, NCF 10099
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 4.82% to 2.99% and also lower than last year 1.97%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0865 to 1.5532 and compare to last year also decreased 0.1896
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate 2010 eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.156, estimate PE on current price 1.37 = 8.65(DPS 0.02)
- My estimate 2009 Q4 eps = -0.1344/2 = -0.0672, hence 2009 eps = 0.1302-0.0672 = 0.063, estimate PE on current price 1.37 = 21.43(DPS 0.02)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-11-26 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-07 was 1.64 and lowest price on 2009-11-05 was 1.34.
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 1.72 and lowest price on 2009-05-28 was 0.97.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-08 was 1.01 and lowest price on 2009-03-16 was 0.595.
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.02 (proposed 2 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.11 (proposed 6 sen on Q4, 3 sen on Q2 and 2 sen on Q1), 2006 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on 2007 Q1)


Tuesday, January 5, 2010

KURNIA / 5193 - 2009 Q3

KURNIA SETIA BERHAD

Listing Date: 06.11.1991
Market: MAIN
Sector: PLANTATION
Par Value: 1.00
Major Industry: Food & Beverages
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Food


Kurnia Setia Berhad (KSB) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in the cultivation of oil palms, sale of fresh fruit bunches and other related products. The Company is organized into three major business segments. The Plantation segment is engaged in the cultivation of oil palms, and sale of fresh fruit bunches and other related products. The Construction and Property Development segment is involved in building construction, general construction and property development. The Trading segment is engaged in general trading activities. On January 8, 2008, the Company acquired Kurnia Setia Land Sdn. Bhd. (formerly known as Inland Residences Sdn. Bhd.). On January 16, 2008, the Company had acquired Alur Cemerlang Sdn. Bhd. (formerly known as Puncak Pengkalan Sdn. Bhd.).

My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Privatisation at RM2.7

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.92% to 3.15% but lower than last year 1.58%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 24.37% to 33113 and profit also growth 43.51% to 9094 because the production of FFB is 65,106 metric ton in the current quarter, compared to 46,247 metric ton in preceding quarter; As compare to last year revenue drop 21.78% and profit also drop 29.72%, mainly due to the decrease in Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, which averaged at RM3,243 per metric ton in the previous year’s financial period, to RM2,243 per metric ton and dropped of FFB from 160498 metric ton to 153644 metric ton
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.82% to 288806, assets increased 1.73% to 365367 and liabilities also increased 1.37% to 76561; As compare to last year equity increased 5.58%, assets increased 7.16% and liabilities also increased 13.61%
- Got FCF 4605, NCF -3023
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.66% to 27.46% but lower than last year 3.11%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0012 to 0.2651 but compare to last year increased 0.0187
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0826*4 = 0.3304, estimate PE on current price 2.6 = 7.72 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-24 was 2.64 and lowest price on 2009-11-13 was 2.58. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/10.79 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-10 was 2.68 and lowest price on 2009-05-28 was 2.18. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0596*4 = 0.2384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.03/8.72 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 2.19 and lowest price on 2009-03-16 was 1.84. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0277*4 = 0.1108, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.15 (proposed 5 sen after Q4 and 10 sen after Q2), 2007 = 0.125 (proposed 7.5 sen after Q4 and 5 sen after Q2), 2006 = 0.06 (proposed 6 sen after Q4)

year qrt RM roe c_roe rev c_rev prof c_prof eps c_eps asset liab mino equi cfo cfi cff cash fcf net final share c_share market date prof_m pe de aps vat
2009 3 2.62 0.0315 0.0751 33113 77699 9094 21700 0.0826 0.1971 365367 76561 2526 288806 15946 -11341 -7628 95951 4605 -3023 92928 110096 110096 288451 2009-09-30 0.2746 0.0 0.2651 3.3186 0.3739
2009 2 2.66 0.0223 0.0444 26624 44586 6337 12606 0.0586 0.1167 359156 75524 1953 283632 2587 -5430 -1589 95951 -2843 -4432 91519 108061 108061 287442 2009-06-30 0.238 0.0 0.2663 3.3236 0.2553
2009 1 1.86 0.0227 0.0227 17962 17962 6269 6269 0.0596 0.0596 347238 71270 1801 275968 55 -1339 -1524 95951 -1284 -2808 93143 105193 105193 195658 2009-03-31 0.349 0.0 0.2583 3.301 0.2382
2008 4 1.5 0.0097 0.1771 23383 145141 2627 47734 0.0277 0.5026 344387 74847 1643 269540 48414 -6527 26903 27143 41887 68790 95933 94970 94970 142455 2008-12-31 0.1123 2.9844 0.2777 3.6263 0.0245
2008 3 1.8 0.0473 0.1649 42331 121758 12939 45107 0.1358 0.4733 340944 67391 1484 273553 41853 -2222 26221 27143 39631 65852 92995 95294 95303 171529 2008-09-30 0.3057 0.0 0.2464 3.5778 0.3429
2008 2 2.48 0.0613 0.1206 43842 79427 16341 32168 0.1714 0.3374 351258 84568 1990 266690 31626 -1023 34338 27143 30603 64941 92084 95336 95336 236433 2008-06-30 0.3727 0.0 0.3171 3.6844 0.2829
2008 1 2.18 0.0746 0.0746 35585 35585 15827 15827 0.2091 0.2091 291008 78743 1183 212265 12044 -213 -1166 27143 11831 10665 37808 75682 75682 164986 2008-03-31 0.4448 0.0 0.371 3.8451 0.2646
2007 4 2.72 0.0500 0.1634 32851 103318 9780 31938 0.1330 0.4343 263777 68279 561 195498 13401 -1072 1532 13282 12329 13861 27143 73541 73541 200031 2007-12-31 0.2977 6.2631 0.3493 3.5868 0.2901
2007 3 2.72 0.0708 0.1185 35721 70467 13243 22158 0.1804 0.3018 261107 74164 70 186943 14312 -1360 5816 13282 12952 18768 32050 73409 73419 199672 2007-09-30 0.3707 0.0 0.3967 3.5569 0.3068
2007 2 2.55 0.0406 0.0504 22157 34746 7176 8915 0.0977 0.1214 248077 71243 0 176834 -2381 -663 11535 13282 -3044 8491 21773 73426 73426 187236 2007-06-30 0.3239 0.0 0.4029 3.3786 0.248
2007 1 2.28 0.0112 0.0112 12589 12589 1739 1739 0.0254 0.0254 228852 73549 0 155303 -2381 -663 11535 13282 -3044 8491 21773 68515 68515 156214 2007-03-31 0.1381 0.0 0.4736 3.3402 0.2501
2006 4 1.91 0.0093 0.0581 16482 56692 1428 8902 0.0208 0.1295 224381 71095 0 153286 16969 -2631 -5679 4623 14338 8659 13282 68739 68739 131291 2006-12-31 0.0866 14.7485 0.4638 3.2642 0.4771

yearqrt Biological assets (A-0) Land held for property development (A-0) Other investments (A-0) Prepaid lease payments (A-0) Property, plant and equipment (A-0) Quoted investment (A-0) Cash and cash equivalents (A-1) Inventories (A-1) Marketable securities (A-1) Property development costs (A-1) Trade and other receivables (A-1) Deferred tax liabilities (L-0) Employee benefits (L-0) Loans & borrowings (L-0) Current tax liabilities (L-1) Loans & borrowings (L-1) Trade and other payables (L-1) Minority interest (M-1)
2009 3 57204 30641 5 106089 23140 642 92928 4638 1937 32539 15604 35362 1857 16203 447 5388 17304 2526
2009 2 54930 30641 5 105106 22571 863 91519 4220 1937 27644 19720 34990 1857 17599 187 5265 15626 1953
2009 1 53552 30641 5 105695 21725 - 93143 2731 1937 22750 15059 34821 1857 18718 134 5077 10663 1801
2008 4 52729 30641 5 106054 20998 - 95951 1727 1937 20812 13533 34879 1911 19954 102 4953 13048 1643
2008 3 51180 - 5 135745 21143 - 92995 3046 4693 17425 14712 39511 1651 8241 2469 5014 10505 1484
2008 2 50834 - 5 136227 20241 - 92726 3345 6693 10553 30634 39655 1759 8647 7212 4909 22386 1990
2008 1 50803 - 5 136712 20068 - 37808 2553 14693 6090 22276 39813 1759 8964 5016 4331 18860 1183
2007 4 51711 - 5 137215 19523 - 27143 434 14693 4745 8308 40005 1759 9984 1591 4320 10620 561
2007 3 51036 - 5 137692 11593 - 32755 1325 277 2207 24217 40588 1440 10580 4775 5373 11408 70
2007 2 51842 - 5 138169 12093 - 22472 931 277 1467 20821 40725 1440 12449 2022 5367 9240
2007 1 52112 - 5 138677 12179 - 16081 1528 277 1031 6962 40889 1594 13401 428 5907 11330
2006 4 52515 - 5 139160 12431 - 13282 868 277 1031 4812 41067 1650 14539 606 4740 8493

yearqrt Revenue/Interest income Income tax expense Cost of sales/Interest expense Finance costs/income Minority interest
2009 3 33113 -5430 -17730 -286 -573
2009 2 26624 -2173 -17646 -316 -152
2009 1 17962 -1960 -9226 -349 -158
2008 4 23383 -66 -20828 297 -159
2008 3 42331 -6751 -20883 -1248 -510
2008 2 43842 -6446 -19102 -1146 -807
2008 1 35585 -5696 -12966 -474 -622
2007 4 32851 -3997 -18143 -440 -491
2007 3 35721 -5861 -15910 -637 -70
2007 2 22157 -2367 -12143 -471
2007 1 12589 -580 -9797 -473
2006 4 16482 -1303 -13316 -435








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Monday, January 4, 2010

3A / 0012 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.76 (PE 10, EPS 0.0764)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.03% to 6.55% and also higher than last year 2.65%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 0.09% to 45136 but profit growth 7.47% to 5898, the result is not materially different; As compare to last year revenue growth 17.45% and profit also growth 96.8%, mainly due to better demand for the Group's products and improvement in products margin
- Equity compare to last Q increased 7.01% to 90086, assets increased 4.45% to 147135 and liabilities also increased 0.64% to 57049; As compare to last year equity increased 17.18%, assets increased 6.61% but liabilities decreased 6.69%
- Got FCF 4769, NCF 4659
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.92% to 13.07% and also higher than last year 5.27%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.04 to 0.6333 and compare to last year also decreased 0.1619
- No dividend recommended
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate PE on current price 1.55 = 20.08 (DPS 0.016)
- From date 2009-08-14 to 2009-10-22 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-15 was 1.58 and lowest price on 2009-08-25 was 0.52. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.97/7.08 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-13 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.6 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 0.345. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.38/12.14 (DPS 0.01)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-12 was 0.365 and lowest price on 2009-03-30 was 0.305. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.23/9.34 (DPS 0.01)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.016 (recommended 8% after Q3), 2008 = 0.01 (recommended 5% after Q3), 2007 = 0.012 (recommended 6% after Q3)


Sunday, January 3, 2010

A&M / 5959 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 0.78 (PE 12, EPS 0.0652)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.03% to 1.63% and also higher than last year 1.06%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 4.85% to 44360 and profit also growth 177.65% to 7530, mainly due to the launch of Amverton Park @ Bukit Kemuning Golf & Country Club project; As compare to last year revenue growth 43.04% and profit also growth 199.52%, mainly due to the launch of Amverton Park @ Bukit Kemuning Golf & Country Club project
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.71% to 461936, assets decreased 1.89% to 684336 and liabilities decreased 8.6% to 222400; As compare to last year equity increased 4.54%, assets increased 14.1% and liabilities increased 40.82%
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 1.98% to 12190 but compared to last year decreased 31.04%
- Got FCF 19769, NCF 20053
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 10.56% to 16.97% and also higher than last year 8.86%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0543 to 0.4815 but compare to last year increased 0.1241
- No dividend recommended
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.015 (proposed 1.5 sen on 2008 Q1), 2006 = 0.015 (declared 1.5 sen on 2007 Q1)


GENM / 4715 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 3.52+0.07 = 3.59 (PE 14, EPS 0.2516, DPS 0.07)
My stock cost: 2.89
My decison: Hold
Reason: Undervalue
Risk: 4th quarter result maybe is not good as quarter 3

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.04% to 3.67% but lower than last year 0.55%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 11.12% to 1335901 and profit also growth 8.77% to 359456, mainly due to better underlying performance in the leisure and hospitality segment arising from improved luck factor in the premium players business; As compare to last year revenue growth 9.06% and profit also growth 5.54%, mainly due to higher volume of business but offset by impairment loss of RM48.6 million arising from long term investment and lower interest income
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 7.83% to 9806039, assets increased 6.3% to 11073197 and liabilities decreased 4.19% to 1267158; As compare to last year equity increased 21.46%, assets decreased 18.96% and liabilities increased 2.63%
- Got FCF 945360, NCF 699820
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.58% to 26.91% and also lower than last year 0.9%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0162 to 0.1292 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0237
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate PE on current price 2.74 = 10.89 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-08 was 2.92 and lowest price on 2009-10-05 was 2.71. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-28 was 3 and lowest price on 2009-06-23 was 2.53. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-25 was 2.79 and lowest price on 2009-03-20 was 1.9.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03 (declared 3 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.07 (declared 4 sen on Q4 and 3 sen on Q2), 2007 = 0.0648 (declared 3.6 sen on Q4 and 2.88 sen on Q2), 2006 = 0.15 (declared 3 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2)