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Thursday, September 30, 2010

KLCI Stock - NESTLE / 4707 - 2010 Quarter 2

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 234500000*42.02 = 9,853,690,000 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (578415-61024)/234500 = 2.21
P/BV : 42.02/2.21 = 19.01
Forecast P/E now : (42.02-1.5)/2.038 = 19.88 (High)
ROE : 69.86%
DY : 1.5/42.02*100 = 3.57% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (2.1335+2.2302+1.9924)/3 = 2.1187 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 890648/812088 = 1.0967 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (404320+389398)/2/(3908794/365) = 37 days (Good)
My Target Price : 41.34+1.5 = 42.84 (PE 22, EPS 1.8792, DPS 1.5)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 41.2
My Comment : Revenue growing, good cash flow, high debt, navps increased, strong Ringgit, cocoa powder and skimmed milk powder price increasing
Technical Support Price : 39
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 38.53 (27 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Group registered 13.9% higher turnover than the same period last year. Domestic and exports, both performed well and contributed to the encouraging second quarter performance

- Locally, the quarter saw many marketing activities and new product launches leveraging on improved economy and consumer sentiment. Overall, the businesses performed well in this quarter with a special mention of Nestle Liquid Drinks and Chilled Dairy which achieved strong growth

- Another positive note is the robust double digit growth which was registered by the Exports business. The significant investment in production lines over the last 3 years have made additional capacity readily available to cater to the higher external demand, regionally as well as globally. The strong economic performance by the neighbouring countries, in particular Indonesia and Philippines also contributed to the higher exports for the quarter

- The operating profit increased at the same rate. The profit margin before tax declined by 10bps, slightly affected by higher financing costs stemming from an increase in local interest rates. Due to a lower effective tax rate driven by substantial investments made in the last 3 years which qualify for Halal tax incentives, profit margin after tax improved by 20bps

- For the half year ended 30 June 2010, the Group posted 8.6% higher turnover than the same period last year. Domestic sales, leveraging on improved local economy and increased consumer confidence, showed a good improvement over last year. From an exports perpective, the Group took advantage of the improving world economy by making great strides to attain a robust double digit growth for the first half of the year. This good achievement was also contributed by the higher demand from the Asean neighbouring countries which experienced strong economic growth. New coffee creamer and coffee production lines commissioned in the past 2 years have been well leveraged to meet the increased export demand

- While some commodity prices increased sharply during the half year, eg. Cocoa powder more than doubled compared to last year's first half average price and Skimmed Milk Powder escalated by more than 30%, the stronger Ringgit against US dollar helped cushion partially these increases.
Additionally. manufacturing efficiencies driven by internal improvement programmes as well as by higher export volumes helped absorb factory fixed costs. As a result, the gross profit margin ended at 33.3%, an improvement of 10bps compared to last year

- In the second quarter, the Group further intensified its marketing and promotional activities. Several new products were launched namely, Canned Nescafe Ipoh White Coffee and MAGGI Atta Whole Wheat Noodles with fibre, lower fat and no added MSG. The quarter also saw a MILO campaign with focus on PROTOMALT, a proprietary malt extract which is one of the key ingredients in MILO

- Profit before tax for the first half improved by 160 bps against same period last year was mainly driven by timing of overhead cost and the favourable leverage of the fixed cost structure. The Halal tax incentives related to the substantial capital investments made in the last three years, helped reduce the effective tax rate. As a result, the profit after tax at improved by 180bps vs previous year

- Against the last quarter, the turnover increased by 3.0%. The higher operating expenses was mainly attributed to the anticipated stronger marketing and promotional activities executed in the second quarter. As such, the profit before and after tax dropped accordingly

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4271*4*1.1 = 1.8792, estimate PE on current price 42.02 = 21.56(DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.56+0.1491+0.0357 = 1.7448(0.1491 from adjustment between 2009 Q1 eps and 2010 Q1 eps, 0.0357 from QbQ improvement adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.21/18.52 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.56(around 4% from 1.5002), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.12/20.54 (DPS 1.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.06/21.12 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.4537, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.65/21.78 (DPS 1.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.5264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.42/17.82 (DPS 1.3)

NESTLE latest news (English)


Tuesday, September 28, 2010

KLCI Stock - MYEG / 0138 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 601051000*0.8 = 480,840,800 (Small)
NTA per share : (84443-12016)/601051 = 0.12
P/BV : 0.8/0.12 = 6.6667
Forecast P/E now : (0.81-0.005)/0.0427 = 18.62 (High)
ROE : 24.69% (High)
DY : 0.005/0.8*100 = 0.625% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.6495+0.6504+0.7553+0.6602)/4 = 0.6789 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 33481/6976 = 4.7995 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (17117+11769)/2/(62094/365) = 84 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 0.854+0.005 = 0.86 (EPS 0.0427, PE 20, DPS 0.005)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 0.75
My Comment : Revenue and profit increasing, cash decreased to below 9 million, low debt and slightly decreased, navps same
Technical Support Price : 0.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):

- The Group posted 24.1% higher revenue and 41.6% higher profit after taxation (“PAT”) for the fourth financial quarter (“Q4 FY2010”) as compared to the corresponding quarter (“Q4 FY2009”)

- For the financial year ended 30 June 2010 (“FY2010”), the Group recorded 18.3% higher revenue and 21.5% higher PAT as compared to the corresponding period (“FY2009”)

- The increase in revenue and PAT are primarily attributable to:-
i) an overall increase in volume from all segment of services due to the ongoing marketing
campaign which has enhanced MYEG’s brand name, and
ii) the launch of the new online maid permit renewal services with the Immigration Department

- However, this was offset by the increase in marketing expenses as well as an increase in personnel related costs

- For the Quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue of RM17.10 million, an increase of RM0.54 million as compared to Q3 FY2010 revenue. PAT is consistent as compared to Q3 FY2010 mainly due to increased expenses from the marketing campaign to enhance MYEG’s brand name

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0097*4*1.1 = 0.0427, estimate PE on current price 0.81 = 18.62(DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0088*4 = 0.0352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.57/14.91 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.57/12.66 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0074*4 = 0.0296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.44/13.88 (DPS 0.0092)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.63/14.37 (DPS 0.01835)

MYEG latest news (English)


Saturday, September 25, 2010

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2010 Quarter 2

MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BERHAD

Listing Date: 11.01.1982
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value: 1.00
Major Industry: Recreation
Sub Industry : Miscellaneous Recreation
Market Cap : 1077748654*2.17 = 2,338,714,579.18 (Large)
NTA per share : (2237915-2892231)/1068625 = Negative
P/BV : Not Applicable
Forecast P/E now : (2.17-0.05)/0.2139 = 9.91 (Moderate)
ROE : 11.08% (Moderate)
DY : 0.05/2.17*100 = 2.3% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.5976+0.5526+0.545)/3 = 0.565 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 1701090/712982 = 2.3859 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (415128+347035)/2/(3552183/365) = 39 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 2.14+0.05 = 2.19 (EPS 0.2139, PE 10, DPS 0.05)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 2
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased compared to last year, strong cash, high debt but got slightly decreased, navps increased, possible of new income stream from property division, stockbroking division expect downstream
Technical Support Price : 2.1
Risk Rating : MODERATE


MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BERHAD is engaged in the core businesses of financial services, stock broking and gaming. The principal activities consist of investment holding and trading, operation of general insurance business, provision of leasing, hire purchase, factoring and general loan financing services, operation and management of a licensed four digit numbers forecast betting game, operation of hotels and of a golf club, securities broking and dealing, designing and construction of railway and related activities, property development, provision of share registration and management services, printing activities, and provision of computer software and other related services. In March 2008, it incorporated a wholly owned offshore subsidiary, Multi Purpose International Limited. In June 2008, the Company acquired Caribbean Gateway Sdn Bhd.

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The PBT for the current quarter was 33% lower than the previous corresponding quarter. The difference was mainly due to the exceptional gains from the disposal of quoted investments and dividend income totaling RM74.6 million received in the previous corresponding quarter

- The PBT of the Gaming Division achieved in the current quarter has dropped slightly(8.6%) when compared to the previous corresponding period. After discounting the exceptional items in the previous corresponding quarter, coupled with lower finance costs this quarter and additional contribution from the 4D Jackpot game which was introduced in September 2009, the Gaming Division has performed better in this quarter

- The Financial Services Division achieved 42.6% higher PBT compared to the previous corresponding financial quarter. The favourable result was mainly due to the improved underwriting performance due to tightening of underwriting especially in non-performing classes and greater emphasis on risk management and selection

- Lower brokerage income and provision for doubtful debts had affected the performance of the Stockbroking Division. As a result, the Division registered a loss before taxation of RM3.5 million as compared to the PBT of RM10.2 million achieved in the previous corresponding financial quarter

- The Group's PBT has dropped by 10% from the previous corresponding financial period

- The Group recorded a 12.9% lower PBT as compared to the immediate preceding quarter. The reduction in PBT is mainly due to the recognition of losses on the fair value of the derivative liability and quoted investments within the Group

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate PE on current price 2.17 = 9.91(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

MPHB latest news (English)

MPHB latest news (Chinese)

a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharemarketdateprof_mpedenavpsvat
2010-08-2620102N/AN/A-0.02210.04718713601863980122930261934601371283300.05630.1201594425432203654859742723889304199-251959-12723680541552240-749967304191068625106862522868572010-06-300.1411-1.18232.090.2193
2010-05-21201012.261.9-0.02590.025999262099262013900413900468193681930.06330.063359053433276166454887262917740337-38483-451937579091854-433397145701076718107671821319012010-03-310.14-1.24612.020.2404
2010-02-25200942.481.870.050.04380.129587495933234171365864866571142303373870.10860.3207582650832210504393662605458624210-156742-1781444689404674682893247582641052079105207920305122009-12-310.15616.01831.23632.060.1623
2009-11-25200931.961.75-0.01990.0876813244244845864556350071507272231570.04990.2195580571232584684736802547244462533-170190-1415154689402923431508286197681016649101664919316332009-09-300.0794-1.27922.040.2011
2009-08-26200922.161.80.040.04970.067380401316352141823202855151274061724300.12550.1698582971932670124794662562707447449-111902-1318614689403355472036866726261015399101539921018752009-06-300.2268-1.27482.050.0482
2009-05-26200912.11.32-0.01800.018083120183120110319510319545024450240.04640.0464577695632766165473202500340149392-91057577624689405833511609758503797020997020913388882009-03-310.1242-1.31052.010.2743
2009-02-20200841.491.020.050.00830.0666827066313724472561262864197721586180.01730.1389564583932632975180252382542522494-315915-178237440598206579283424689401141937114193711990332008-12-310.08777.55931.36971.630.0633
2008-11-19200831.211.0-0.01500.0521759149231082039057195962410251423000.03580.1241569813929678088654412730331292343583082985440598650641480495886471146994114699412043432008-09-300.0514-1.0871.630.0877
2008-08-27200821.460.960.040.01040.0203753961155102973886154700520361012750.04530.08815762907772733856558499017468525783681823154405981468933292087698061149899114989916213572008-06-300.098-0.15493.590.4081
2008-05-28200811.821.360.050.01810.0181797068797068808148081449239492390.04270.042736540439340158397612720028988193721135644059819253306094712071153866115386621000362008-03-310.1014-0.34341.630.3145
2008-02-29200742.051.560.060.01780.1476783240320604672723684184469983893500.04070.3375376648711292828078052637205-424030442252-43579285816818222-4175704405981153706115370623766342007-12-310.09286.10410.42821.590.0421
2007-11-16200732.591.88-0.01930.13458063652422806105151611461490833423520.04250.2968372106411751738473442545891119920253071-847222858168372991-4742313839371153652115365229764222007-09-300.1304-0.46161.470.2823
2007-08-21200722.582.14-0.04470.109979161416164411606995063101191962932690.10330.25424202463153479510137452667668261845478616-62782185816874046111264097080811535481153548N/A2007-06-300.203-0.57531.430.1638
2007-05-2120071N/AN/A0.050.05880.05888248278248273456113456111740731740730.15090.1509485546618968391386388295862785239398769-7498085816848400840902812671961153230115323026754932007-03-310.419-0.64111.360.1414
2007-02-1520064N/AN/A-0.02100.061129115345162783175199750568071649320.04920.14294168686146787313021912700813625272-2260673019441570193992057011498581681153867115386715231042006-12-310.28579.23470.54351.210.2423

yearqrtAssets held for sale (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Intellectual property (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Land held for property development (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Securities Held-to-Maturity (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Loans to customers (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Provision for retirement benefits (L-0)Redeemable convertible unsecured loan stocks (L-0)Reserves for unexpired risks (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Exchangeable bonds (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201021599171155852892231-106519642660-9836338801851763383350005143372593981237413831775309--415128-199132897719119346434601168580023757--1722687503485974
20101132221147362891551657106743638967-297182389519040033833-1042341567301117017075195180--528793-198253444619499816444711958466216696--2536696181454887
20094-1205332891863-106343640750-271955390619436433833-51699-1038359588475344--443236-22498-1991299659482274815727254--314635180439366
20093-1200612891094-10607854527622178269668391920000036738-119020234873996988356745682--315753-20379-1988715674493018802712843-43876241661940473680
20092-1268502890884-10529353999522178197201393020969436593-137548237623763758925495971--347035-20379-204918665450376480507662-64544645600761479466
20091-1254852890884-10437254012118372126138394320443339966-122933241337624398607715797--429965-20379-209812265351418572507431-140087138549193547320
20084-1363322890463-104509541074-127876395520116439966-59013242332721287621646297--458566-24468-209538165352460772452315-668228136510603518025
20083-84392947615-1231155924572000098796100818069339864-11212938992540631742567520399451-296246-12006-22000002682-742437255-1182314641548750865441
20082-84392916077-12238841496312832275760469018497639864-21397540492510807814990710693359-322266-11996--2540-745827656-1182314536553192856558
20081-9182755914-130551519962131921484777100726422739864-130735-13953629447870718382910959339008-13627--2649-687406890121520-269767450822839761
20074-13621800439-1308616227322000053028158527475739864-50831-314727186889000188565-334791-18075-1028611616-6512911346260500-156172513583807805
20073--759245-1327735252857700452625546572211711--24991436000214714006369568387347-2751226216115958-1067521217-6125630300260500-173991525199847344
20072--746455-1321176078052435648043843808173307--86697136000175734006618328331599-2692476379816150-1450001167-5968228461260500-3069967168391013745
20071--819543-13071559267620000409667-208291--114820136000172613856507934763608-2471786874215951-363974--6143232017265500-2501699077961386388
20064--547639-1327815350762000066458844191220114--615172429331934610248428257332520-2974561742616064-3566121753-5361313100300000-2971184296131302191

yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther income/expensesAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationAfter tax effect of interest on exercise of warrants
20102871360-26953-672826-36464-25096-16552-358406511857-
20101992620-33415-792278-22823-22053-17612-373961150--
20094874959-22167-676797-4077629221-17757-1891545-33809-
20093813244-12982-685523-34274-18127-8866-847785-2683-
20092804013-8779-631345-4541073505-19529-46135821265-
20091831201-28303-645780-42580-17762-19536-29868-137-2211-
20084827066-4594-642494-52067-20665-38231-48195-10480-
20083759149-3425-619802-38515-49389-1470353931209-1108
20082753961-30151-613071-1424-17423-170638301392-326341148
20081797068-25418-651999-45029616-19741-6157184-510101198
20074783240-3063-605958-7568-60458-38741-226621080-1128
20073806365-29687-636406-9806-40445-17050-263811366-1127
20072791614-26319-689980-1406590614-19948-151841393-1071
20071824827-48871-616482-14226169865-19791-122667234-1184
20064291153-20150-208615-9954-8695-25442-621843475-1253






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Thursday, September 23, 2010

KLCI Stock - BJTOTO / 1562 - 2011 Quarter 1

BERJAYA SPORTS TOTO BERHAD

Listing Date: 04.05.1972
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value: 0.10
Major Industry: Recreation
Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Recreation
Market Cap : 1351030072*4.13 = 5,579,754,197.36 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (402632-643323)/1337500 = Negative
P/BV : Not applicable
Forecast P/E now : (4.13-0.16)/0.2311 = 17.18 (High)
ROE : 50.98% (High)
DY : 0.16/4.13*100 = 3.87% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (2.6466+3.2895+3.2188)/3 = 3.0516 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 437254/361999 = 1.2079 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (117053+37395)/2/(3401553/365) = 8 days (Good)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, good cash flow, high debt and increased, navps decreased, NFO tax increased, competitive from Magnum
Technical Support Price : 4.1
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.5 (21 Sep 10)


Berjaya Sports Toto Berhad (BToto) is principally engaged in investment holding and provision of management services to its subsidiary companies. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is principally engaged in the operations of Toto betting; leasing of online lottery equipment; manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems; property investment and development, and investment holding. The Company operates in two segments: toto betting and leasing of lottery equipment, and others, which includes property investment and development, investment holding, and manufacture and distribution of computerized lottery and voting systems. On September 5, 2008, the Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, Berjaya-ILTS Limited. In May 2009, the Company, through its subsidiary Berjaya Sports Toto (Cayman) Limited (BSTC), acquired 6.81% interest in Prime Gaming Philippines, Inc.

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- As compared to the corresponding quarter ended 31 July 2009, the Group recorded an increase in revenue of 1.1% but recorded a decrease in pre-tax profit of 30.6%, mainly due to the results of Sports Toto Malaysia Sdn Bhd ("Sports Toto") as explained in the ensuing paragraph coupled with higher finance cost incurred in the current quarter under review as well as lower revenue and pre-tax profit reported by Berjaya Philippines Inc

- Sports Toto, the principal subsidiary, registered an increase in revenue of 1.0% but recorded a decrease in pre-tax profit of 23.6% as compared to previous year corresponding quarter mainly due to the increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 coupled with the relatively higher prize payout in the current quarter under review

- As compared to the preceding quarter ended 30 April 2010, the Group registered a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 2.7% and 16.0% respectively. The decrease in revenue was mainly due to lower revenue recorded by Sports Toto and Berjaya Philippines Inc.. The decrease in pre-tax profit was mainly due to the operating performance of Sports Toto as explained in the ensuing paragraph coupled with higher finance cost incurred

- Sports Toto recorded a decrease in revenue and pre-tax profit of 1.9% and 6.3% respectively mainly due to the preceding quarter recording seasonally higher sales during the Chinese Lunar New Year festive season during the month of February 2010 and the recent increase in Pool Betting Duty from 6% to 8% with effect from 1 June 2010 respectively despite a lower prize payout in the current quarter under review

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2889*0.8 = 0.2311, estimate PE on current price 4.13 = 17.18(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2889*0.9 = 0.26(10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.58 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.09/13.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.65/12.53 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.21/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)

BJTOTO latest news (English)

BJTOTO latest news (Chinese)

a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharemarketdateprof_mpedenavpsvat
2010-09-2020111N/AN/A0.080.15280.1528835395835395985989859863956639560.04780.0478128523186670815891418523112932-5633-64610257150107299426892998391337500133750054971252010-07-310.118-2.07090.30.3382
2010-06-18201044.484.060.080.17410.82178582943392323117321546155808953817420.06120.2889123158476703315074464551451028-107657-312732226572343371306392572111321318132131858534382010-04-300.136715.33351.65110.340.2918
2010-03-15201034.674.16-0.25510.78458507592534029139259428834978513008470.07290.2286124922386571412521383509346970-89077-235881229447257893220122514591341727131610058633462010-01-310.1637-2.25730.280.2915
2009-12-10201024.454.11-0.32460.642685710516832701474372895751025442029960.07620.1558119781288189710624315915223356-31112-154263228830192244379812668111345698130328656519312009-10-310.172-2.79160.230.2995
2009-09-09201014.54.140.190.46470.46478261658261651421381421381004521004520.07970.079711235669073849784216182120824-32677-9239623026388147-42492260141260875126087554469802009-07-310.172-4.19730.160.2867
2009-06-15200945.354.240.110.21500.822887033336956861508135853281072494104930.08540.3268111447461556815959498906490282-35660-354700130553454622999222304751256000125600062297602009-04-300.173315.17631.23380.380.2718
2009-03-16200935.054.560.050.21550.673010576632825353141420434515971123032440.07730.2414112577667520315790450573382341-21706-278059133212360635825762157881256000125600058780802009-01-300.1337-1.49850.350.3038
2008-12-12200924.824.50.070.27290.494594178817676901623962930951137422061320.09060.1641105856764170116525416866304050-9470-243277129626294580513031809291256000125600057022402008-10-310.1724-1.53930.320.2857
2008-09-08200914.84.040.060.25860.258682590282590213069913069992390923900.07360.0736103972968249820368357231100836-5147-6982512612295689258641519861256000125600057524802008-07-310.1583-1.91050.270.281
2008-06-18200844.944.40.090.17170.9851866831327779793929502627607623486630.04830.276010241886702682324435392034489872806-537956246720417704-1202521264681256858126343861837412008-04-300.108417.73561.89380.260.2989
2008-03-05200835.34.660.080.25700.75378614772410946148054408698981582879010.07790.227510787176967451983438197229816081549-447246248307379709-675371807701260824126558461780372008-01-310.1719-1.82410.290.3216
2007-12-07200825.54.80.080.24280.51507924711549469119206260644894701897430.07090.149610894607210151479236844518273783354-330427247483266091-643361831471261574126796463709482007-10-310.1504-1.95690.280.2372
2007-09-10200815.154.80.10.26500.25777569987569981414381414381031291002730.08090.078712411208520021246738911814682883695-1115572475742305231189663665401274380127438063464122007-07-310.1868-2.18960.30.2596
2007-06-2820074N/AN/A0.0750.21490.87688293613035288149001545332920943756870.07190.2905121323578477110179428464464836459781-1336640658883924617-4120232468601280530129314057367742007-04-300.179715.27011.83160.330.3799
2007-03-0720073N/AN/A0.1250.21980.532777098122049951520393966601173382843520.09060.2196134206180827513124533786352463467225-1119363659826819688-2996753601511294730129473059816522007-01-310.1972-1.51420.40.2248

yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred liabilities (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Other long-term provisions (L-0)Retirement benefits obligations (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201111033164332332847423123112-93696-29983911005998-8480478411705339-21295000001052-1489-35084--32680311215891
20104967464398635717423123119-96701-25746211005999-84765566101699--21293050001111-1402-34227-14500027803013415074
2010388136449071717360620088267793227-251459-6005-75614155136554-368821710305000--1399-46338-2150002593067912521
2010265026441701647360616214268692881-266811-14775-8241-71762-368911710305000--1426-60239-24750022901511610624
2010165236450561647316616033269696545-226014-8445-8394313537395-377721710359247--1388-44714-2257532366771239784
2009452146183581647316613204270598362-230475-8443-7471642950483-371471710124247--1308-36159-1384392764837515959
2009342366199551657355212986271598604-215788-12440-7525139076420-351481917140000--1216-50940659401300002499489415790
200927866183411657355210751272493528-180929-18920-7873135049648-350182991172500--1094-41015-12750026138819516525
200918476182221657355213956273493971-151986-18878-9267123754914-351322991205000--1047-25855-125000286178129520368
200848586184251657120514993274394910---166271261737832179468463-349922473262686--1004-25674-97314244785134023244
2008317796205181656834416104279095031---1418218077010896-68138-506881717270000-1020--47307-12000020561839519834
2008214056192501656834418127-92744---1435918314711914-80005-473501717300000-920--66456-11750018685521714792
2008114026191621656834417316-93227---777936654010634128455267-474823400330000-864-13463809-11500029070760612467
2007414686178101656803113231-9213275056-10621044424686010284881167881-466393400360000-774-60554673-11250020534883210179
200734076080871676792714282-922179392422318-7910337833107611689869330-463915069390000-2700-4720424-110000233644-13124

yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesInvestment gain/loss
20111835395-33341-13449-724749-1301-2881689
20104858294-34238-6711-737271-2188-123021
20103850759-40597-7296-705422-811-1218
20102857105-44151-7926-703227-742-1485
20101826165-40754-3455-684315-932-3743
20094870333-40995-3440-715546-2569-1-533
200931057663-42960-3861-915659-1348-3277
20092941788-46393-4211-773362-2261--1819
20091825902-36720-4599-693108-1589-2504
20084866831-28079-5052-768056-5088-206
20083861477-47608-5570-707562-2288--291
20082792471-28281-6089-670490-1455-3314
20081756998-36720-5719-616575-1589-6734
20074829361-56601-6711-676648-30602999
20073770981-34185-6790-618466-516-6314






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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

KLCI Stock - MRCB / 1651 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 1375083194*2 = 2,750,166,388 (Large)
NTA per share : 1207647/1373959 = 0.88
P/BV : 2/0.88 = 2.2727
Forecast P/E now : (2-0.01)/0.0927 = 21.47 (High)
ROE : 5.08% (Low)
DY : 0.01/2*100 = 0.5% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.2499+0.2625+0.3362)/3 = 0.2829 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2295829/716072 = 3.2061 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (1022401+590336)/2/(902329/365) = 326 days
My Target Price : 2.13+0.01 = 2.14 (EPS 0.0927, PE 23, DPS 0.01)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Receivables increasing, profit margin getting better, strong cash, high debt but decreasing, navps decreased due to number of share increased, construction and property division largely improved
Technical Support Price : -
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 1.8 (25 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group recorded 5% lower revenue for the cumulative 2nd quarter ended 30 June 2010 as compared to the preceding cumulative 2nd quarter ended 30 June 2009. Lower revenue was recorded in the current period partly contributed by larger inter-group revenue elimination for its construction works. Despite lower revenue, the Group recorded a higher profit before taxation of RM33.3 million for the current period ended 30 June 2010 compared to RM11.1 million achieved in the preceding corresponding period ended 30 June 2009. The improved profit was mainly due to recognition of progress profit of its ongoing property development driven by its Kuala Lumpur Sentral projects

- Despite achieving lower revenue in the current quarter, the Group recorded a higher profit before taxation of RM18.3 million compared to RM9.1 million recorded in the preceding corresponding 2nd quarter ended 30 June 2009. Higher profit for the current quarter was mainly contributed by improved operational margins from its construction activities and recognition of progress profit of its ongoing property development derived mainly from the Kuala Lumpur Sentral projects

- Over the next 3 years will see the progressive completion of the on-going construction works and property development within KL Sentral such as the KL Sentral Park, the Shell headquarters and NU Sentral Retail Mall and the Eastern Dispersal Link expressway concession project

- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate PE on current price 2 = 21.47(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)

MRCB latest news (English)


Tuesday, September 21, 2010

KLCI Stock - MMCCORP / 2194 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 3045058552*2.77 = 8,434,812,189.04 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (6755766-8173923)/3045100 = Negative
P/BV : Not applicable
Forecast P/E now : (2.77.0.03)/0.0884 = 31.34 (High)
ROE : 3.21% (Low)
DY : 0.03/2.77*100 = 1.08% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.2376+0.2334+0.223)/3 = 0.2313 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 7443488/6116686 = 1.2169 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (2277096+2055368)/2/(8741394/365) = 90 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increased but profit remain low, strong cash, high debt but decreasing, navps same
Technical Support Price : 2.5
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 2.59 (25 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- The Group's profit before tax for the six-month financial period ended 30 June 2010 was higher by 13% compared to the corresponding financial period ended 30 June 2009

- Lower losses recorded from Engineering & Construction division by 31.1% mainly attributed to additional contract revenue recognised from SMART. This was mitigated by higher share of losses from an associate, Zelan Berhad attributed to the recognition of losses on contracts for projects in Middle East and Indonesia coupled with impairment loss on goodwill for its engineering and construction division

- Lower losses recorded from Corporate & Others division by 16.3% mainly driven by the gain on disposal of investment in Integrated Rubber Corporation Berhad. This was offset by higher finance costs at MMC Company level

- The Group recorded a profit before tax of RM175.2 million in the current quarter as compared to RM210.4 million in the preceding quarter. This was mainly due to lower contribution from the transport and logistics division and the absence of gain on disposal of investment in Integrated Rubber Corporation Berhad as in preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0402*2*1.1 = 0.0884, estimate PE on current price 2.77 = 31(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0777*1.1 = 0.0855, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.23/25.73 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0777*1.1 = 0.0855, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.82/25.38 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0297*4*0.9 = 0.1069, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.43/20.63 (DPS 0.025)

MMCCORP latest news (English)


Monday, September 20, 2010

KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 4463793103*9 = 40,174,137,927 (Very Large)
NTA per share : (23427824-938901)/4460794 = 5.04
P/BV : 9/5.04 = 1.7857
Forecast P/E now : (9-0.35)/0.168 = 51.49 (Very High)
ROE : 3.91% (Low)
DY : 0.35/9*100 = 3.89% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 years) : (0.3228+0.4315+0.4412)/3 = 0.3985 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 9993465/5313855 = 1.8806 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (1579168+2787683)/2/(13152152/365) = 60 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue slightly slow down, profit still low if exclude major other income, strong cash, above moderate debt and slightly increase, navps decreased due to share increased
Technical Support Price : 8.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 10 (23 Aug 2010)

My study based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-

- The Group profit before taxation was 72.3% higher than the corresponding quarter's profit. The increase was mainly from improved performance in the restructured Liner business and increased profitability in Heavy Engineering business

- The Group profit before taxation was 68.9% higher than (excluding gain on disposal of ships totalling RM7.1 million) preceding quarter. The higher profit achieved in this quarter arose mainly from improved performance in the restructured Liner business

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.04(exclude 257 million from other income)*4*1.05 = 0.168, estimate PE on current price 9 = 51.49(DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42.98/37.77 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

MISC latest news (English)


Sunday, September 19, 2010

KLCI Stock - FAVCO / 7229 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 176885020*0.825 = 145,930,141.50 (Small)
NTA per share : (178887-9506)/173890 = 0.97 (Decreased)
P/BV : 0.825/0.97 = 0.8505
Forecast P/E now : (0.825-0.04)/0.1362 = 5.76 (High)
ROE : 15.08% (Moderate)
DY : 0.04/0.825*100 = 4.85% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.8258+0.8267+0.8968)/3 = 0.8498 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 496113/407486 = 1.2175 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (144587+166112)/2/(495097/365) = 114 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless order book increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Outstanding order book decreased compared to year 2008 and 2009, strong cash, very high debt but decreasing, navps slightly increased, O&G sector recovery
Technical Support Price : 0.76
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- For the current period ended 30 June 2010("Q2 2010"), the Group recorded 19.5% lower revenue with 25% lower profit before tax as compared to the preceding period ended 30 June 2009("Q2 2009"), the decrease was mainly due to decrease in sales resulted from slow order intake in Year 2009 attributed to global slowdown

- The Group recorded a 68.4% higher profit before tax for the current quarter as compared to the preceding quarter. The increase was mainly due to increase in sales

- As at 19 August 2010, outstanding order book of the Group is RM450 million of which majority is from oil and gas cranes for the offshore oil and gas exploration and production activities. Remaining are from the shipyard, construction and wind turbine industry

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1602*0.85 = 0.1362(450 million equal to 15% decrease from 2009 Q4 cum_eps), estimate PE on current price 0.825 = 5.76(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1442*0.7 = 0.1009 (30% drop from 0.1442, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.42/7.04 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1442(10% drop from 0.1602, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.93/4.92 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.76/4.99 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.45/5.49 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.11/5.72 (DPS 0.025)

FAVCO latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - HOMERIZ / 5160 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 200000000*0.445 = 89,000,000 (Very Small)
NTA per share : 53107/200000 = 0.27
P/BV : 0.445/0.27 = 1.6481
Forecast P/E now : (0.445-0.04)/0.092 = 4.4
ROE : 29.97% (3 quarter only)
DY : 0.04/0.445*100 = 8.99% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : Not available
Liquidity Ratio : 41785/10756 = 3.8848 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : Not available
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit decreasing, acceptable cash flow, below moderate debt and decreasing, navps same, inventory increased but receivables decreasing, weakening USD, new manufacturing factory in Vietnam will begin operations by the second half of this year, still poor economic in Europe
Technical Support Price : 0.44
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-

- The Group revenue for the current quarter under review decreased by 14.4% from preceding quarter. The Group profit before tax decrease by 8.9% as compared to the preceding quarter. The Group’s lower profit in the current quarter under review was mainly due to lower revenue

- The decrease in revenue was mainly due to the lower customer order received as a result of higher ocean freight rates and the weakening of euro against US dollar. The weakening of euro was brought about by the economic uncertainties in Europe arising from the recent economic crisis

- Nevertheless, the Group managed to sustain its profitability in the quarter under review due to tighter cost control measures and lower of administrative and selling and distribution expenses during the quarter under review. This was evidenced by the lower rate of decline in profit before tax (8.9%) as compared to the 14.4% drop in sales

- In FY2009, revenue recorded RM108.4 million and profit RM22.7 million
- In FY2008, revenue recorded RM92.6 million and profit RM12.4 million
- In FY2007, revenue recorded RM73.8 million and profit RM10.5 million

- Revenue regions percentage: Europe-60%, Australasia-26%, North & South America-8%, Others-6%

- Revenue products percentage: Upholstered Sofas-55%, Upholstered Dining Chairs-30%, Upholstered Bed Frames-13%, Others-2%

- Dividend policy envisage not less than 40% of net profit, intends to recommend and distribute at least 50% of net profits

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0242*4*0.95 = 0.092, estimate PE on current price 0.445 = 4.4(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0268*4*0.95 = 0.1018, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.04/4.91 (DPS 0.04)

HOMERIZ latest news (English)


KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2011 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 164213000*0.99 = 162,570,870 (Small)
NTA per share : (352273-26763)/164213 = 1.98
P/BV : 0.99/1.98 = 0.5
Forecast P/E now : (0.99.0.05)/0.2365 = 4.19 (Low)
ROE : 9.52% (Low)
DY : 0.05/0.94*100 = 5.32% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.6417+0.5467+0.7983)/3 = 0.6622 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 241942/79116 = 3.0581 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (30474+79173)/2/(291048/365) = 68 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 1.18+0.05 = 1.23 (PE 5, EPS 0.2365, DPS 0.05)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue recovering from year 2009, average eps of recent 4Q eps was above 0.05, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing, property division going to receive progress billing
Technical Support Price : 0.86
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):

- The timber division recorded a 20.6% higher turnover and 175% higher profit after taxation for the quarter under review compared to the corresponding period of the previous financial year. The higher turnover and profit after tax is due to higher plywood sales volume

- The property division got no recognition of revenue for the period under review as construction work had just started in May 2010. The division recorded a loss after tax if RM1.3 million for the quarter under review. In the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year, the division recorded a loss of RM2.4 million. The loss for both periods comprise mainly of management and marketing expenses

- Profit after taxation for the quarter under review is RM8.7 million while the profit after taxation for the immediate preceding quarter was RM13.5 million. Included in the immediate
preceding quarter’s profit after taxation is an income amounting to RM9.9 million arising from an adjustment to development cost recognised upon the acquisition of the Company’s subsidiary Russella Teguh Sdn Bhd

- The timber division’s turnover for the quarter under review recorded 2.1% lower and 94.1% higher profit after taxation compared to the immediate preceding quarter

- The property division’s loss after taxation for the period under review is RM1.3 million. In the immediate preceding quarter, the division’s loss after taxation was RM1.2 million

- During the quarter under review construction work commenced for several shop office blocks. The first progress billings for the division were made in July 2010

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0563*4*1.05 = 0.2365, estimate PE on current price 0.99 = 4.19(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

EKSONS latest news (English)


Saturday, September 18, 2010

KLCI Stock - HUAAN / 2739 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 1122307817*0.35 = 392,807,735.95 (Small)
NTA per share : 705904/1122308 = 0.63
P/BV : 0.35/0.63 = 0.5556
Forecast P/E now : Not available
ROE : 0.33%
DY : Not Applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.7192+1.5592+1.3978)/3 = 1.5587 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 222791/98914 = 2.2524 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (43439+68412)/2/(1383680/365) = 14 days (Good)
My Target Price : Not interested unless receivables increase more or price moving show more clear uptrend
My Decision : PAY ATTENTION
My Comment : Revenue decreased but profit increased, good cash flow, low debt, inventory remain high, receivables increased, closing down the 192 small and inefficient coke factories in China, price moving chart showing slightly positive uptrend
Technical Support Price : 0.33
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 0.47 (25 Aug 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The increase in the consolidated revenue of approximately 14% registered in the current quarter under review can be attributed to the favorable upward trend in the pricing of metallurgical coke and majority of the by-products in the current quarter experienced by the Group. The average prices of metallurgical coke, crude benzene, tar oil, coal slime and middlings during the current quarter under review have increased by approximately 35%, 49%, 34%, 51%, and 14% respectively compared with those of the preceding year corresponding quarter. However, the price of ammonium sulphate has dropped by approximately 16% and the price of coal gas remained fairly constant in the current quarter compared to the same quarter last year

- Despite the seemingly favourable pricing of metallurgical coke and the majority of the byproducts as mentioned above, the cost of sales had also increased in tandem by approximately 8% in the current quarter compared to the preceding year corresponding quarter. This was primarily attributed to the increase in the average price of raw material (i.e. coking coal) by approximately 30% in the current quarter compared to the average price registered in the preceding year corresponding quarter

- Given the continuing recovering trend in the coking and steel industry, albeit a gradual one, the Group has managed to record a gross profit of approximately RM10.9 million in the current quarter under review compared to a gross loss of approximately RM4.8 million recorded in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The Group has turned around to register a profit for the period of approximately RM4.8 million for the current quarter under review compared to the loss for the period of RM13.3 million registered in the preceding year corresponding quarter, after two consecutive loss making quarters since the third quarter of 2009

- The Group’s consolidated revenue registered during the current quarter represents a reduction of approximately 8% in the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2010. The reduction in revenue was primarily attributed to the unfavorable pricing of some of its by-products in comparison with the prices registered in the preceding quarter. The average prices for ammonium sulphate, crude benzene and middlings (which contributed to approximately 5% of total revenue) during the current quarter under review were reduced by 16%, 8% and 2% respectively, the effects of which more than negate the price increase seen in tar oil and coal slime of 13% and 4% respectively compared to the average prices registered in the preceding quarter. Besides, the average metallurgical coke price has only increased by a meager 0.4% in the current quarter under review compared to that of recorded in the preceding quarter (first quarter 2010)

- Cost of sales in the current quarter has correspondingly reduced 9.9% in the current quarter under review compared to the preceding quarter ended 31 March 2010. This was attributed to lower sales volume as well as reduction of approximately 2% of the average coking coal price compared to that of the preceding quarter

- The reduction in the average coking coal price on the back of a slight increase in the metallurgical coke price bodes well for the Group resulting in it recording a profit for the period of approximately RM4.8 million in the current quarter under review compared to a loss for the period of approximately RM2.5 million in the preceding first quarter 2010

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Friday, September 17, 2010

KLCI Stock - A&M / 5959 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 362907400*0.49 = 177,824,626 (Small)
NTA per share : (457809-19719)/362908 = 1.2
P/BV : 0.49/1.2 = 0.4083
Forecast P/E now : 0.49/0.0459 = 10.68 (High)
ROE : 3.25% (Low)
DY : Not applicable
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.2341+0.1812+0.1812)/3 = 0.1988 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 421707/119915 = 3.5167 (High)
Receivables Collection Period : (63945+49794)/2/(150246/365) = 138 days
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit uncertain and low, good cash flow, below moderate debt but slightly increasing, navps increasing, strong cash, directors acquired shares @ ~RM0.46 and ~RM0.6
Technical Support Price : 0.46
Risk Rating : HIGH

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group achieved RM71.257 million revenue and RM6.987 million profit before taxation and minority interest for the current financial period ended 30 June 2010 as compared to RM63.276 million revenue and RM4.388 million profit before taxation and minority interests for the corresponding financial year of the preceding year. This represented an increase of revenue and profit before taxation and minority interest of 13% and 59% respectively of same period last financial year

- The Group reported RM3.277 million profit before taxation and minority interest for the current quarter as compared to RM3.71 million profit before taxation and minority interest of the preceding quarter. The difference was mainly due to the completion of certain development projects in the preceding quarter


KLCI Stock - TONGHER / 5010 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 127430000*1.79 = 228,099,700 (Small)
NTA per share : 283535/127406 = 2.23
P/BV : 1.79/2.23 = 0.8027
Forecast P/E now : (1.79-0.05)/0.1694 = 10.27 (High)
ROE : 6.29% (Low)
DY : 0.05/1.79*100 = 2.79% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.6105+0.9038+1.1082)/3 = 0.8742 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 208607/49940 = 4.1772 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (26408+15855)/2/(224826/365) = 34 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, cash reduced around 42%, low debt but slightly increased, navps remain same
Technical Support Price : 1.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE (due to result not that good but PE consider high; healthy financial)

My notes based on 2010 Quarter 2 report (number in '000):

- The Group reported higher profit before taxation in this reporting quarter as compared to the corresponding quarter in the previous year is due to lower cost of raw materials and higher selling price for products produced

- The higher profit before taxation in the current reporting quarter as compared to the preceding quarter is due to lower cost of raw materials and a result of cost containment measures undertaken

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.154*1.1 = 0.1694(0.154 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 10.27(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0347(average of recent 3Q)*4 = 0.1388, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.53 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0469*4 = 0.1876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.39 (DPS 0.05)

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

KLCI Stock - MBMR / 5983 - 2010 Quarter 2

MBM RESOURCES BERHAD

Listing Date: 16.02.1994
Market: MAIN
Sector: TRADING/SERVICES
Par Value: 1.00
Major Industry: Miscellaneous
Sub Industry: Wholesalers
Market Cap : 242476667*3.19 = 773,500,567.73 (Medium)
NTA per share : (965896-11435)/245444 = 3.89
P/BV : 3.19/3.89 = 0.8201
Forecast P/E now : (3.19-0.08)/0.4544 = 6.84
ROE : 11.52% (Moderate)
DY : 0.08/3.19*100 = 2.51% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.135+1.0298+1.1134)/3 = 1.0927 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 446520/108349 = 4.1211 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (105918+101367)/2/(1397478/365) = 27 days (Good)
My Target Price : 3.64+0.08 = 3.72 (EPS 0.4544, PE 8, DPS 0.06)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit tandem increase, good cash flow, low debt and decrease, navps increasing, interest rate increased, fuel price hike, strong Ringgit, TIV grew, dealership network expanding
Technical Support Price : 3.2, 2.95
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.63 (18 Aug 10)


MBM RESOURCES BERHAD is an investment holding company. The Company’s operating businesses are organized into three business segments: investment holding; marketing and distribution of motor vehicles and other related activities, and manufacturing of automotive parts, trucks and vehicles body building and other related activities. It operates through several subsidiaries. Its subsidiaries include Daihatsu (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd (DMSB), which is engaged in the marketing and distribution of motor vehicles, spare parts and provision of related motor repair services; Summit Vehicles Body Works Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in trucks and vehicles body building and general engineering works, and Galaxy Waves Sdn. Bhd. whichis engaged in investment holding. On March 31, 2007, it acquired a 16.35% interest in Federal Auto Holdings Berhad (FAHB), which increased its interest in FAHB to 86%. In August 2008, it disposed Auto Style Enterprise Limited and Sun Motors Limited to Med-Bumikar Mara Sdn. Bhd.

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-

- The Malaysian motor total industry volume (TIV) of sales by registration improved in the second quarter of 2010 by 16.1% compared against the same period of 2009 and similarly improved by 4.2% over the preceding quarter

- New Volkswagen, Mitsubishi and Hino dealership operations contributed further to revenue growth

- Favourable Ringgit/Yen currency rates ensured improved margins

- The Group's financial position continued to improve with net cash position of RM168.9 mil and net assets at RM3.99 per share being attained at the end of reporting period

- Disposal of WSA Capital Corporation Sdn. Bhd. was completed during the quarter

- Group revenue improved by 52.8%. Profit from operations improved by 112.3%, whilst share of results of associate companies improved by 210.7%. Net profit attributable to owners of the Company improved by 176.8%

- Group revenue improved by 11.3%. Profit from operations improved by 11.2%, whilst share of results of associate companies improved by 12.7%. Net profit attributable to owners of the company declined marginally by 3.5%

- The Group continued to deliver on the back of strong orders for all models. The new dealership operations under Federal Auto Group, namely Volkswagen and Mitsubishi, commanded vehicle sales expansion of 84.3% and 35.6% respectively over preceding quarter. This brings the Group's mid‐size to luxury passenger segment's sales to more than double what was sold in the same period of 2009. The Perodua dealership under the Group's subsidiary DMM Sales Sdn. Bhd. also recorded an increase in share of total Perodua national sales to 9.1% compared to 7.7% in the same period of 2009

- The Group's expansion in its dealership network for its various brands namely Hino, Volkswagen and Mitsubishi, and additional investments in upgrading its existing network into 3S (sales, service and spare parts) Centres

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.5049*0.9 = 0.4544, estimate PE on current price 3.19 = 6.84(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4772 (base on year 2008 eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.53 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0931*4 = 0.3724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.4/6.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0916*4 = 0.3664, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.21/6.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0568*4 = 0.2272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.98 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0381*4 = 0.1524, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.37/12.6 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0672*4 = 0.2688, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.59/6.58 (DPS 0.18)

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