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Friday, December 31, 2010

KLCI Stock - EPIC / 8265 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)408,503,194 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.41-0.06)/0.3 = 7.83 (Moderate)
Target Price2.55+0.06 = 2.61 (PE 8.5, EPS 0.3, DPS 0.06)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter increasing and highest since FY06Q4, eps decreased but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow and net cash flow increasing, profit margin maintaining high, high liquidity ratio, low gearing ratio, all accounting period are acceptable, oil & gas price increasing
First Support Price2.24
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price3.09 (2010-11-09)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.11%
Dividend Yield2.07%
Profit Margin28.61%
Tax Rate32.81%
Asset Turnover0.4962
Net Asset Value Per Share2.1
Net Tangible Asset per share2.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.11
Cash Per Share0.59
Liquidity Current Ratio3.8812
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.7333
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.099
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2751
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2066
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale59.1%
Days to sell the inventory15
Days to collect the receivables117
Days to pay the payables89

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group achieved revenue of RM72.85 million in the third quarter under review, an increase of RM29.10 million or 67% compared to RM43.75 million reported in the same quarter in the preceding year. The Group recorded profit before tax of RM20.84 million, an increase of 45% compared to RM14.36 million achieved in the same quarter in the preceding year

- For the nine months ended 30 September 2010, the Group generated revenue of RM181.83 million, an increase of RM47.91 million or 36% compared to RM133.92 million achieved in the same period in the preceding year. The Group recorded profit before tax of RM57.27 million, increase by 36% compared to RM42.19 million achieved in the same period in the preceding year

- The increase in revenue and profit before tax was mainly due to increase in port operations and oil and gas activities

- During the current quarter under review, the Group recorded profit before tax of RM20.84 million, a decrease of 3% as compared to RM21.49 million reported in the preceding quarter due to provisions made during the quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.075*4 = 0.3, estimate PE on current price 2.41 = 7.83(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2682*1.1 = 0.295(0.2682 is recent 4Q cum_eps and estimate 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.68/6.34 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2747(still within expectation), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.92/5.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2747(10% grow from 0.2497), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.01/5.39 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2327, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.68/5.82 (DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2221, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.18/6.33 (DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.94/6.48 (DPS 0.09)

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Thursday, December 30, 2010

KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,515,853,716 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.9-0.06)/0.16 = 17.75 (High)
Target Price1.44+0.06 = 1.50 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.16, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNOT BUY
Comment
Revenue largely decreased and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, cash largely decreasing, liquidity ratio decreasing at low level now, gearing ratio increasing at high level now, over inventory
First Support Price2.75
Second Support Price2.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price2.76 (2010-11-29)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity16.01%
Dividend Yield2.07%
Profit Margin5.16%
Tax Rate21.90%
Asset Turnover0.6824
Net Asset Value Per Share1.3
Net Tangible Asset per share1.29
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.22
Cash Per Share0.06
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0501
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.1681
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0316
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.462
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5903
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale4.1%
Days to sell the inventory291
Days to collect the receivables40
Days to pay the payables33

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- During the quarter under review, the Group recorded 13% lower revenue as compared to the corresponding quarter of the preceding year. The decline in revenue in current quarter was mainly due to lower export tonnages on the back of lackluster international market conditions

- The Group achieved a 72% lower profit before tax (“PBT”) for the current quarter than the corresponding quarter of the preceding year. The erosion of the Group’s profitability was mainly due to higher cost of sales arising from higher raw materials costs despite continuous improvement in operational efficiency during the period under review

- The Group recorded revenue for the current quarter was 44% lower than the preceding quarter. Correspondently, the Group registered a 83% lower PBT for the current quarter than the preceding quarter. The decrease in revenue and PBT was mainly attributed to lower export tonnages amidst the escalated production costs arising from higher input costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate PE on current price 2.9 = 17.75(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

KLCI Stock - KGB / 0151 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)50,429,250 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(0.675-0.03)/0.095 = 6.79 (Moderate)
Target Price0.76+0.03 = 0.79 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.095, DPS 0.03)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter increasing and is historical highest, eps second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, still no free cash flow and negative net cash flow, cash decreased but still strong, liquidity ratio decreased at moderate level now, gearing ratio increased at moderate level now, all accounting period are increased but still acceptable compared to historical quarter
First Support Price0.665
Second Support Price0.665
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Kenanga Target Price1.04 (2010-09-07)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity19.26%
Dividend Yield4.44%
Profit Margin10.83%
Tax Rate8.73%
Asset Turnover1.1667
Net Asset Value Per Share0.49
Net Tangible Asset per share0.49
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.43
Cash Per Share0.31
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2704
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.2387
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9417
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6893
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.408
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale42.4%
Days to sell the inventory4
Days to collect the receivables158
Days to pay the payables105

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a 29% higher revenue as compared to previous corresponding quarter in 2009 mainly due to the higher revenue contribution from Taiwan and China operations. However, the lower Gross Profit margin of the current quarter mainly due to projects with lower margins

- The Group recorded higher revenue and pbt as compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.095, estimate PE on current price 0.675 = 7.74(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.095, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.63/7.05 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/6.6 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.03*3+0.01 = 0.1, estimate PE on current price 0.77 = 7.4(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.7/6.65 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/5.8

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)154,867,013 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.21-0.1)/0.28 = 3.96 (Moderate)
Target Price2.24+0.1 = 2.34 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.28, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit slight decreased, also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increasing but net cash flow decreased , third consecutive quarter profit margin increasing, better liquidity ratio at moderate level now except cash very low, better gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all collection period are acceptable from historical comparison
First Support Price1.1
Second Support Price1.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity19.74%
Dividend Yield8.26%
Profit Margin26.59%
Tax Rate25.85%
Asset Turnover0.8148
Net Asset Value Per Share2.36
Net Tangible Asset per share2.34
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.49
Cash Per Share0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio2.3945
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7362
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0299
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6479
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3765
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale46.8%
Days to sell the inventory258
Days to collect the receivables86
Days to pay the payables88

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For this current quarter under review, the Group's revenue has increased by 7% as compared to a revenue in the preceding year corresponding quarter. The increase in revenue is mainly derived from Group's construction division

- Nevertheless, the Group has recorded lower profit before tax in the current quarter as compared to a profit in the preceding year corresponding quarter

- The Group generated lower revenue and profit before tax for the current quarter under review as compared to the preceding quarter due to lower revenue and profits recognition from Group's property development and manufacturing divisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate PE on current price 1.21 = 3.96(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.25/3 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

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Monday, December 27, 2010

KLCI Stock - PERISAI / 0047 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)364,320,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.55/0.0288 = 19.10 (High)
Target Price0.0288*8.0 = 0.23 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.0288)
DecisionNOT BUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive decreasing and lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit same with revenue, free cash flow increasing but still negative net cash flow, liquidity ratio decreasing at weak level now, gearing ratio at above moderate level now, receivables period still high, payables period decreasing
First Support Price0.5
Second Support Price0.49
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price0.7 (2010-11-10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For the financial period ended 30 September 2010, the Group generated total revenue from continuing operations of RM55.00 million and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent of RM3.32 million. This compares to revenue from continuing operations of RM87.71 million and profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent RM41.43 million for the preceding corresponding financial period ended 30 September 2009

- The decrease in revenue for the financial period ended 30 June 2010 was mainly due to the expiration of the Saturation Diving System contract and the revision of charter rates for the Derrick Lay Barge (“DLB”) from USD95,000 per day for 240 days per annum to a yearly fixed monthly rate of USD1,900,000 per month and USD20,000 for each working day for the 271st day and beyond in the calendar year

- The decrease in profit attributable to equity holders of the parent for the financial period ended 30 September 2010 was due to the decrease in revenue and in addition, the Group had during the financial quarter ended 30 September 2010, written off the development costs of RM8.44mil which was associated with the licensing fee for the Alpha Prime subsea module, allowance for doubtful debt amounting to RM2.90 million, provision for foreseeable loss amounting to RM3.76 million for the disposal of a an associate company and subsidiaries and the impairment of goodwill of RM1.34 million. The above exercise with respect to the development expenditure write off, allowance for doubtful debt, provision for foreseeable loss and impairment of goodwill is non recurrent in nature and is reflected under the operating expenses in the income statement

- The non recurrent transactions as mentioned above had substantially reduced the profit from continuing operations of the Group which otherwise would have achieved profit from continuing operations of RM19.76 million for the financial period ended 30 September 2010

- For the financial quarter ended 30 June 2010, the Group generated total revenue from continuing operations of RM17.70 million and loss attributable to equity holders of the parent of RM8.63 million. This compares to revenue from continuing operations of RM20.75 million and profit attributable to the equity holders of the parent RM8.27 million for the preceding corresponding financial quarter ended 30 September 2009

- The decrease in revenue and profit attributable to equity holders of the parent for the financial quarter ended 30 September 2010 was mainly due to reasons as mentioned above

- For the financial quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group recorded a loss before tax from continuing operations of approximately RM8.53 million as compared to a profit before taxation of RM5.79 million for the preceding financial quarter ended 30 June 2010

- The loss before tax from continuing operations in the current quarter was mainly due to the write off of the development cost, allowance for doubtful debt, provision for foreseeable loss and the impairment of goodwill as mentioned above, which otherwise the Group would have achieved a profit before tax from continuing operations of RM7.91 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.008*4*0.9 = 0.0288 (10% drop), estimate PE on current price 0.55 = 19.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0087*4*0.9 = 0.0313 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.49/15.5
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0093*4*0.9 = 0.0335 (10% drop), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.76/14.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0589*0.85 = 0.0501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.77/8.38
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0125*4 = 0.05, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12/9.4

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Sunday, December 26, 2010

KLCI Stock - TGOFFS / 7228 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)472,658,716 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.62-0.01)/0.077 = 20.91 (High)
Target Price1.08+0.01 = 1.09 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.077, DPS 0.01)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 1
Comment
Revenue second consecutive slowly increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit second consecutive decreasing but recovered from loss in preceding year corresponding quarter, Free cash flow and net cash flow also increasing, cash increasing, liquidity ratio increased but still at low level, gearing ratio decreasing but still at high level, receivables and payables period increasing, oil and gas price increasing
First Support Price1.34
Second Support Price1.2
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price1.6 (2010-11-25)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity2.66%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin0.91%
Tax Rate19.54%
Asset Turnover0.485
Net Asset Value Per Share1.31
Net Tangible Asset per share1.28
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.16
Cash Per Share0.26
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4754
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4344
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.346
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.0116
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6645
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale19.6%
Days to sell the inventory7
Days to collect the receivables163
Days to pay the payables118

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group recorded a decrease of 11.38% in consolidated revenue as compared to the corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009. The net profit after tax recorded for the current quarter ended 30 September 2010 of RM1.0 million is 100% higher than a net loss of RM10.28 million recorded in the corresponding quarter ended 30 September 2009

- During the quarter under review, the Group recorded lower revenue as compared to the preceding year quarter due to the completion of engineering equipment contracts in the first half of 2010. Further thereto, MV Tanjung Gelang and MV Tanjung Pinang 3 have completed the respective long term charters. The management of Tanjung is in the midst of procuring new long term charters for the aforesaid vessels in the near term

- The Group’s total revenue for the current quarter of RM137.25 million is similar to the revenue levels recorded in the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010 of RM137.15 million. The Group’s consolidated net profits registered in the current quarter represents a decrease of 72% as compared to the net profits registered in the preceding quarter ended 30 June 2010. The reduction in the net profit in the current quarter is due to the reduction in the profit from associate company, Hercules Tanjung Asia Sdn Bhd

- EPS improvement from FYQ32009 of 0.0094 to FYQ32010 of 0.0254 is 170.2%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.035*1.1*2 = 0.077(use 100% improvement forecast), estimate PE on current price 1.62 = 20.91(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0124*4*1.1*2 = 0.1091, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.78/13.84 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0119*4*1.1*2 = 0.1048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.18/10.11 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0096*4*2 = 0.0768, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.01/9.4 (DPS 0.01)

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Saturday, December 25, 2010

KLCI Stock - FAVCO / 7229 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)187,536,281 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.06-0.04)/0.1362 = 7.49 (Moderate)
Target Price1.09+0.04 = 1.13 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.1362, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 1
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit second consecutive quarter increasing, higher than preceding year corresponding quarter also, free cash flow increasing, strong cash, outstanding order book decreased compared to year 2008 and 2009, profit margin increasing, liquidity ratio maintained at low level, gearing ratio decreasing but still at high level
First Support Price0.98
Second Support Price0.8
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.93%
Dividend Yield3.77%
Profit Margin10.49%
Tax Rate25.61%
Asset Turnover0.7712
Net Asset Value Per Share1.06
Net Tangible Asset per share1.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.97
Cash Per Share0.56
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2017
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5843
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2499
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.2394
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6913
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.5%
Days to sell the inventory217
Days to collect the receivables106
Days to pay the payables140

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For the current period ended 30 September 2010("Q3 2010"), the Group recorded revenue of RM284.8 million with profit before tax of RM22.5 million as compared with revenue of RM359.9 million with profit before tax of RM23.1 million in the preceding period ended 30 September 2009("Q3 2009"), the decrease was mainly due to decrease in sales resulted from slow order intake in Year 2009 attributed to global slowdown

- The Group recorded a profit before tax of RM12.2 million for the current quarter as compared to the profit before tax of RM6.4 million in the preceding quarter. The increase was mainly due to increase in sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1362, estimate PE on current price 1.02 = 7.2(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1602*0.85 = 0.1362(450 million equal to 15% decrease from 2009 Q4 cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.37/5.58 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1442*0.7 = 0.1009 (30% drop from 0.1442, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.42/7.04 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1442(10% drop from 0.1602, revenue drop and margin expect will not increase much), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.93/4.92 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.76/4.99 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.45/5.49 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1442, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.11/5.72 (DPS 0.025)

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Friday, December 24, 2010

KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2010 Quarter 3

MUDAJAYA GROUP BERHAD

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,768,325,550 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.3-0.045)/0.4093 = 10.40 (Moderate)
Target Price4.91+0.045 = 4.96 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.4093, DPS 0.045)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter decreasing, also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit decreased but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, no free cash flow, net cash flow decreasing, largely investment in associates, liquidity ratio decreased but still at moderate level, gearing ratio at below moderate level, receivables collection period getting longer, company share buy back at price below RM4, shortlisted for the LRT extension project, more opportunity from power plant project in India, opportunity of Hydroelectric Power Project from Lao
First Support Price3.75
Second Support Price3.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
osk Target Price6.83 (2010-11-24)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity30.27%
Dividend Yield1.05%
Profit Margin32.27%
Tax Rate17.26%
Asset Turnover0.8327
Net Asset Value Per Share1.62
Net Tangible Asset per share1.62
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.49
Cash Per Share0.46
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1998
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.9293
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6535
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4301
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2794
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale40.2%
Days to sell the inventory48
Days to collect the receivables156
Days to pay the payables160

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The growth in revenue and profit before taxation of 45.4% and 166.7% respectively were mainly attributable to the increased level of activities during the current quarter as compared to the previous corresponding quarter

- Both revenue and profit before taxation decreased by 12.8% and 4.9% during the current quarter as compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate PE on current price 4.3 = 10.4(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

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Thursday, December 23, 2010

KLCI Stock - NOTION / 0083 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)258,117,501 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.67-0.045)/0.2092 = 7.77 (Moderate)
Target Price1.67+0.045 = 1.72 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.2092, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 1.6
Comment
Revenue decreased, also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, profit increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, cash from profit before taxation not enough to repay the expenses but still strong cash, liquidity decreasing at around moderate level, gearing ratio increasing at moderate level, working capital per sales decreasing, payables period increasing, USD against MYR slowly strengthening
First Support Price1.6
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
osk Target Price1.45 (2010-12-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.00%
Dividend Yield2.69%
Profit Margin12.65%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.5883
Net Asset Value Per Share1.55
Net Tangible Asset per share1.55
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.05
Cash Per Share0.24
Liquidity Current Ratio1.9132
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4167
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5281
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6512
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3932
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.2%
Days to sell the inventory68
Days to collect the receivables100
Days to pay the payables86

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue and profit after taxation ("PAT") of approximately RM53.0 million and RM8.2 million respectively for the quarter ended 30 September 2010. Refer Notes B2. and B3.
below for a detailed review of the Group's performance

- For 4Q of FY2010 the Group recorded revenue of RM53.0 million (3QFY2010 : RM60.8 million) and PAT of RM8.2 million (3QFY2010 : RM3.1 million) and earnings per share of 5.23 sen
(3QFY2010 : 1.92 sen). The lower revenue is mainly attributable to decrease in sales from HDD segment and the lower USD foreign exchange rate versus the Malaysian Ringgit. The
improvement in PAT of about RM5.1 million is mainly attributable to lower R&D cost, improved material yield, less incidence of rework and quality issue, foreign exchange gain from hedging
contracts and reinvestment allowances resulting in lower taxation

- The Group recorded an increase of 68.7% PBT as compared to the immediate preceding quarter

- For the current year todate, total revenue was RM226.8 million and PAT was RM37.5 million compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year of RM172.7 million and RM35.9 million
respectively. Yoy the revenue and profit after tax was 31.3% and 4% higher respectively

- In Q4FY2010, HDD parts revenue recorded RM18.3 million (Q3FY2010: RM27.9 million), camera parts recorded RM25.6 million (Q3FY2010: RM23.3 million) whilst the industrial/automotive
revenue was at RM9.1 million (Q3FY2010: RM9.6 million). The product mix for Q4FY2010 was HDD:Camera:Industrial/Automotive of 35%:48%:17% compared to previous quarter's mix of
46%:38%:16%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0523*4*0.9 = 0.1883, estimate PE on current price 1.63 = 8.42(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0192*3+0.0806 = 0.1382(It may take 3Q to apply corrective measures to control costs, minimise rejects and maximise its production capacity), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.16/10.67 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3788 (0.1804*2 = 0.3608, 5% grow from 0.3608), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.65/5.24 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3674, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/7.57 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0185*4 = 0.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.62/9.95 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0158*4 = 0.0632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.39/5.49 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0065*4 = 0.026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.23 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0103*4 = 0.0412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/3.64 (DPS 0.01)

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Wednesday, December 22, 2010

KLCI Stock - CIMB / 1023 - 2010 Quarter 3


Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)63,773,206,462 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(8.58-0.18)/0.4916 = 17.09 (High)
Target Price7.87+0.18 = 8.05 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.4916, DPS 0.18)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 7.9
Comment
Revenue slow down but profit still increasing, import & export increased on October, consumer price index increasing
First Support Price8.1
Second Support Price7.7
Risk RatingLOW

Research House
OSK Target Price9.77 (2010-11-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity14.79%
Dividend Yield4.26%
Profit Margin40.71%
Tax Rate19.87%
Asset Turnover0.0442
Net Asset Value Per Share3.24
Net Tangible Asset per share1.81
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.65
Cash Per Share4.85
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1072
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8994
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1562
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio10.2101
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.906
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale208.3%
Days to sell the inventory2680
Days to collect the receivables4863
Days to pay the payables12128

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For 3Q10, the Group‟s net profit was 3.0% higher than 2Q10, and 26.0% above its 3Q09 net profit

- The Group‟s 3Q10 revenues were 4.1% lower versus 2Q10, but net profits were 3.0% higher on a Q-o-Q basis

- The Group‟s Malaysian Consumer Banking division PBT fell by 13.9% Q-o-Q due to lower recoveries at GSAM and higher provisions for business banking accounts. Corporate and Investment Banking declined by 6.8% but Treasury and Investments surged 32.0%. CIMB Niaga‟s PBT contribution was 13.6% lower Q-o-Q due to the higher gains from legacy bond sales in 2Q10. GAM and Insurance PBT contributions declined 7.1% to RM26 million. CIMB Thai‟s PBT contribution (after GAAP adjustments) jumped by 75.0% Q-o-Q to RM35 million versus RM20 million in 2Q10

- On 29 October 2010, CIMB Niaga reported the 3Q10 net profit of IDR666 billion was 10.1% higher than 2Q10 primarily due to stronger revenue and lower provisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1267*4*0.97 = 0.4916, estimate PE on current price 8.31 = 16.54(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.125*4*1.1 = 0.55, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.42/13.78 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2366*4*1.1 = 1.041(10% increase quarter-by-quarter), after bonus estimate eps = 1.041/2 = 0.5205, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/12.46 (DPS 0.185/2 = 0.0925)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2268*4*1.1 = 0.9979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.67/12.5 (DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2058*4*1.1 = 0.9055, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.72/13.04 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1879*4*1.1 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.59/11.73 (DPS 0.25)

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Tuesday, December 21, 2010

KLCI Stock - PHARMA / 7081 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)586,238,278 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.48-0.27)/0.4068 = 12.81 (High)
Target Price4.07+0.27 = 4.34 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4068, DPS 0.27)
DecisionNOT BUY less price below 4.3 (due to high PE)
Comment
Revenue and profit decreased but still higher than preceding year, bad cash flow, low cash, lower profit margin, slightly better liquidity ratio but still at low level, better gearing ratio but still at above moderate level, inventory, receivables and payables ratio are acceptable, health index still high
First Support Price5.4
Second Support Price5.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.31%
Dividend Yield8.58%
Profit Margin4.25%
Tax Rate40.62%
Asset Turnover1.6228
Net Asset Value Per Share3.97
Net Tangible Asset per share3.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.46
Cash Per Share0.27
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3418
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.7184
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0783
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8897
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.462
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale9.6%
Days to sell the inventory68
Days to collect the receivables63
Days to pay the payables93

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- In the current quarter under review, the Group's revenue was 1.3% higher from the same quarter last year, mainly due to higher sales to government sector

- The Group‟s profit before tax also increased by 63.8% from the same quarter last year. This was mainly due to higher gross profit margin as a result of the improvement in the production throughput during the current quarter

- The Group‟s revenue for the current quarter decreased by 4.6% from the immediate preceding quarter to the current quarter. The contraction in Group's revenue was mainly attributable to lower sales to government sector

- In line with the lower revenue in the current quarter, the Group's profit before tax registered a decrease of 24.1% from the immediate preceding quarter to current quarter. The decrease was further contributed by lower gross profit from private sector

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1017*4 = 0.4068, estimate PE on current price 5.48 = 12.81(DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1124*4 = 0.4496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/11.41 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.5139*0.9 = 0.4625, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/10.34 (DPS 0.27)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.5626, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.85/6.99 (DPS 0.37)

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Monday, December 20, 2010

KLCI Stock - JOBST / 0058 - 2010 Quarter 3

JOBSTREET CORPORATION BERHAD

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)890,423,828 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.8-0.055)/0.1441 = 19.05 (Moderate)
Target Price2.88+0.055 = 2.94 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.1441, DPS 0.055)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 2.6 (due to high PE)
Comment
Revenue increasing, profit decreased but still high, good cash flow, strong cash, better liquidity ratio at moderate level, low gearing ratio, good receivables collection period and pay the payables period, consumer price index still high
First Support Price2.2
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price2.32 (2010-11-18)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.47%
Dividend Yield1.96%
Profit Margin48.86%
Tax Rate30.83%
Asset Turnover0.5876
Net Asset Value Per Share0.47
Net Tangible Asset per share0.46
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.3
Cash Per Share0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4139
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.4139
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.9925
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2255
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1824
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale43.3%
Days to sell the inventoryN/A
Days to collect the receivables47
Days to pay the payables165

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- For the quarter ended 30 September 2010, consolidated revenue is 24.0% higher than the corresponding quarter in the preceding financial year. The increase was led by strong sales of JobStreet ESSENTIAL (online job posting service) which grew 41.1% year on year driven by the momentum of economic recovery in the core markets that the Group operates in. Sales in JobStreet IMPACT (career website management service) also increased 82.0% year on year. However, the current quarter saw a decrease in revenue from JobStreet RESOURCE (provision of contract staffing services) by 12.1% and lower dividend income amounting to RM0.4 million after the elimination of dividends from associate, 104 Corporation (Taiwan)(“104 Corp”) amounting to RM3.07 million. During the corresponding quarter in 2009, dividend income including those from 104 Corp which was not an associate then, amounted to RM1.5 million

- Results from operating activities rose 26.8% as a result of higher revenues from JobStreet
ESSENTIAL and JobStreet IMPACT. Operating profit margins had also improved. Operating
expenses increased by 20.6% mainly due to higher staff costs and marketing expenses. On a
pre-tax basis, the Group’s profit before taxation (“PBT”) recorded growth of 42.3% compared with corresponding quarter in the preceding financial year. During the current quarter, the Group’s share of profit in associates and a jointly-controlled entity amounted to RM1.4 million which positively impacted profitability

- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded a 2.3% increase revenue compared with preceding quarter. This increase was mainly due to higher sales from JobStreet IMPACT and JobStreet SELECT (technology assisted executive search services). JobStreet ESSENTIAL revenue had increased marginally quarter-on-quarter in view of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri holidays which fell in the third quarter of this year and negatively impacted sales during this period

- In terms of profitability, PBT in the current quarter declined by 5.5% mainly due to higher
marketing expenses. In addition, PBT in the previous quarter was higher due to the grant
income received amounting to RM0.6 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0343*4*1.05 = 0.1441, estimate PE on current price 2.8 = 19.05(DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0343*4*1.05 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.78/13.98 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991 (5% grow from 0.0944), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.66/18.54 (DPS 0.0425)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0895 (around 5% grow from 0.085), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.49/15.02 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.49/13.63 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0899, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.07/11.4 (DPS 0.035)

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Sunday, December 19, 2010

KLCI Stock - BHIC / 8133 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)993,830,456 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.0-0.06)/0.3718 = 10.60 (Moderate)
Target Price5.21+0.06 = 5.27 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3718, DPS 0.06)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue and profit largely increased, still negative net cash flow, cash decreased, lower liquidity ratio at low level, higher gearing ratio at high level, receivables collection period and payables period also taking longer, contract received increasing, Patrol Vessels job from government
First Support Price4.0
Second Support Price3.7
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity18.52%
Dividend Yield1.48%
Profit Margin16.26%
Tax Rate18.07%
Asset Turnover0.6548
Net Asset Value Per Share1.69
Net Tangible Asset per share1.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.52
Cash Per Share0.1
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4554
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.3898
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.0621
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0419
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4891
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale32.5%
Days to sell the inventory20
Days to collect the receivables345
Days to pay the payables170

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the period ended 30 September 2010 has increased 11% compared to the previous year corresponding period. To-date profit after taxation was higher by 6%, from the
preceding year’s corresponding period

- The improved result was mainly due to the revenue from the provision of services for the maintenance of naval vessels. However its contribution to the Group’s earnings was, to some extent, offset by cost escalations from delays in completing certain shipbuilding projects, coupled with a reduced contribution from associates

- For the third quarter, the Group’s revenue stood at RM227.7 million, significantly higher compared to the RM104.5 million achieved in the immediate preceding quarter, while profit before taxation was RM37.0 million compared to RM18.5 million achieved in the second quarter. The increase was mainly due to the revenue for accumulation of work done on naval vessels maintenance

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3098*1.2 = 0.3718, estimate PE on current price 4 = 10.6(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0636*1.1*4 = 0.2798 (10% increase due to many new contract received), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.69/14.44 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.13/15.58 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)

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Saturday, December 18, 2010

KLCI Stock - PARKSON / 5657 - 2011 Quarter 1


Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,211,873,780 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.68-0.2)/0.3015 = 18.18 (Moderate)
Target Price5.73+0.2 = 5.93 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.3015, DPS 0.2)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 5.6
Comment
Revenue and profit higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, good cash flow, better liquidity ratio but still low, better gearing ratio but still high, opening a new mall which going to bring in rental income, RMB against MYR strengthening since Sept 2010
First Support Price5.5
Second Support Price5.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price6.67 (2010-12-02)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.57%
Dividend Yield2.82%
Profit Margin25.89%
Tax Rate22.37%
Asset Turnover0.3968
Net Asset Value Per Share1.97
Net Tangible Asset per share0.85
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.78
Cash Per Share2.29
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5783
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4619
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.26
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7738
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5468
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale41.5%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables53
Days to pay the payables295

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For the first quarter ended 30 September 2010, the Group achieved healthy same store sales growth (Malaysia: 9%, China: 11% and Vietnam: 20%) and better operating efficiency in the three countries in which it operates. Despite better performance registered in the current quarter under review, the significant weakening of the Chinese Renminbi and Vietnamese Dong against Ringgit Malaysia has resulted in lower results being consolidated into the Group. Hence, revenue was only marginally higher at RM656 million with profit before taxation reported at RM168 million

- Excluding the impact of the currency translation, on a comparable basis, the Group's revenue increased by 11% to RM710 million as compared to the preceding year corresponding period. Accordingly, profit before taxation increased by 20% to RM184 million

- Encouraging same store sales growth coupled with higher spending during the Hari Raya (Muslim festival) in September 2010 has enabled the Group to record favourable performance. Revenue was higher at RM656 million with profit before taxation increasing by 12% to RM168 million compared with the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3015, estimate PE on current price 5.9 = 18.91(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.17/17.74 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2741*1.1 = 0.3015, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.91/16.42 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2676*1.1 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.48/17.15 (DPS 0.05)

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