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Wednesday, March 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - NOTION / 0083 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)323,033,280 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.09-0.045)/0.24 = 8.52 (Moderate)
Target Price2.40+0.045 = 2.44 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.24, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless earthquake impact is clearer
Comment
Revenue increased 13.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.5%, if exclude derivative gain still increased 42.8% from preceding quarter, eps increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, almost can generate cash from operating due to payables decreased, repayment of bank borrowings have to pay attention because is almost quarter of total cash, liquidity increased from low to moderate level, gearing ratio decreased at moderate level now, working capital per sales increased, all accounting periods are good now especially payables period decreased, affecting by weakening USD but got USD and EURO currency hedging to stabilize the effect of a strong ringgit, impacted by the Sendai earthquake
First Support Price1.7
Second Support Price1.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2.5 (2011-01-24)
RHB Target Price2.17 (2011-02-22)
ECM Target Price2.5 (2011-03-21)
OSK Target Price1.85 (2011-03-23)
Maybank Target Price2.4 (2011-03-24)
HLG Target Price2.69 (2011-03-28)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.78%
Dividend Yield2.15%
Profit Margin26.33%
Tax Rate14.83%
Asset Turnover0.5756
Net Asset Value Per Share1.57
Net Tangible Asset per share1.57
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.31
Cash Per Share0.24
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1738
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6405
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5452
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6696
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3998
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.8%
Days to sell the inventory68
Days to collect the receivables99
Days to pay the payables53

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- For 1Q of FY2011 the Group recorded revenue of RM60.0 million (4QFY2010 : RM53.0 million) and PAT of RM13.4 million (4QFY2010 : RM8.2 million) and earnings per share of 8.65 sen (4QFY2010 : 5.23 sen). The improvement in PAT of about RM5.3 million is mainly attributable to the higher revenue contributed from camera segment

- The Group recorded PBT of RM15.8 million as compared to the immediate preceding quarter of RM6.7 million, an increase of 136%

- For the current year todate, total revenue of RM60.0 million and PAT of RM13.4 million is 6.6% higher and 4.3% lower respectively compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year revenue of RM56.3 million and PAT of RM14.0 million

- n Q4FY2010, HDD parts revenue recorded RM20.8 million (Q4FY2010: RM18.3 million), camera parts recorded RM29.9 million (Q4FY2010: RM25.6 million) whilst the industrial/automotive revenue was at RM9.3 million (Q4FY2010: RM9.1 million). The product mix for Q1FY2011 was HDD:Camera:Industrial/Automotive of 35%:50%:15% compared to previous quarter's mix of 35%:48%:17%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.06*4 = 0.24, estimate PE on current price 2.09 = 8.52(DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0523*4*0.9 = 0.1883, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.44/8.2 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0192*3+0.0806 = 0.1382(It may take 3Q to apply corrective measures to control costs, minimise rejects and maximise its production capacity), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.16/10.67 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3788 (0.1804*2 = 0.3608, 5% grow from 0.3608), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.65/5.24 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3674, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/7.57 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0185*4 = 0.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.62/9.95 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0158*4 = 0.0632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.39/5.49 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0065*4 = 0.026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.23 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0103*4 = 0.0412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/3.64 (DPS 0.01)

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Monday, March 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - DAYA / 0091 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)257,406,465 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.23-0.0024)/0.0216 = 10.54 (High)
Target Price0.22+0.0024 = 0.22 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0216, DPS 0.0024)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 0.22
Comment
Revenue increased 3.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.7%, eps increased 19.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 81.5%, both negative free and net cash flow increasing, liquidity ratio increasing from low to moderate level, gearing ratio decreasing from above moderate to moderate level, receivables increased
First Support Price0.21
Second Support Price0.2
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.33%
Dividend Yield1.04%
Profit Margin13.48%
Tax Rate17.15%
Asset Turnover0.6116
Net Asset Value Per Share0.16
Net Tangible Asset per share0.08
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.06
Cash Per Share0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio2.0933
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8044
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.571
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6614
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3971
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale33.8%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables130
Days to pay the payables87

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group achieved lower revenue compared to preceding year corresponding quarter mainly due to the decrease in revenue from polymer and oil & gas segments. Nevertheless, the Group recorded higher profits contributed by the oil & gas segment especially with the acquisition of Daya OCI Sdn Bhd

- The Group achieved higher revenue compared to preceding quarter mainly attributed to the higher contribution from the technical service segment. Nevertheless, the Group recorded lower profit

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0049*4*1.1 = 0.0216, estimate PE on current price 0.23 = 10.54(DPS 0.0024)

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Thursday, March 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)8,434,745,932 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(7.25-0.3)/0.4935 = 14.08 (Moderate)
Target Price7.40+0.3 = 7.70 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.4935, DPS 0.3)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue increased 11.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.9%, eps decreased 87.6% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year coorresponding quarter 83.8%, both positive free and net cash flow increased, affecting by strengthening of JPY currency, oil & gas expect to profit in coming quarter, at least 50% profit for dividend
First Support Price7.1
Second Support Price7.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price8.11 (2011-01-13)
ECM Target Price8.16 (2011-02-25)
HwangDBS Target Price8.9 (2011-02-25)
AMMB Target Price7.4 (2011-03-17)
Maybank Target Price7.2 (2011-03-18)
OSK Target Price8.92 (2011-03-18)
RHB Target Price7.85 (2011-03-18)
TA Target Price6.72 (2011-03-18)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.74%
Dividend Yield4.14%
Profit Margin6.53%
Tax Rate44.82%
Asset Turnover1.2847
Net Asset Value Per Share3.52
Net Tangible Asset per share3.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.17
Cash Per Share1.9
Liquidity Current Ratio1.8053
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.2701
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8339
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1777
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4736
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale16.4%
Days to sell the inventory43
Days to collect the receivables32
Days to pay the payables50

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue of RM3438.1 million for the third quarter ended 31st December 2010 exceeded that of the preceding year's corresponding quarter of RM2992.3 million by RM445.8 million or 14.9%. Improved sales registered by all business segments of the Group resulted in the revenue growth

- Group profit before taxation for the fourth quarter ended 31st December 2010 of RM224.7 million was, however lower than the RM249.1 million registered in the same quarter of 2009 by 9.8%, a decrease of RM24.4 million. while improved automotive sales generated higher profits, impairment losses provided on some of our assets and investments resulted in the lower profit before taxation

- Consequently, net profit attributable to the owners of the Company for the fourth quarter of 2010 decreased from RM111.1 million registered in the same quarter of 2009 to RM18.5 million, a reduction of RM92.6 million or 83.3%

- Group revenue of RM12840.6 million for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 surpassed the RM10720.9 million recorded in the same period of 2009 by RM2119.7 million or 19.8%. Generally, strong economic recovery and improved consumer confidence resulted in high demand for our products and services in the Automotive, Equipment and Manufacturing & Engineering segments. However, demand for our oil and gas products and services continued to be adversely affected by the slower recovery in the Oil & Gas industry

- Group profit before taxation for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 0f RM1312.9 million improved over the RM846.5 million achieved in 2009 by 55.1%, an increase of RM466.4 million. Higher revenue from three of our four core business segments, improved margins from favourable foreign exchange rates and model mix contributed to the higher profit. However, the anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed by the United States of America on Oil Country Tubular Goods ('OCTG') pipes imported from China continued to adversely affect the performance of our overseas associate, WSP Holdings Limited ('WSP'). In addition, pre-operating expenses incurred by our jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3 also contributed to the loss registered by the Oil & Gas segment

- Net profit attributable to the owners of the Company of RM512.4 million for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 improved over the RM382.4 million achieved in the same period of 2009 by RM130 million or 34%

- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicles sales of 281958 units represented 46.6% of the Total Industry Volume ('TIV') of 605156 units reported by the Malaysian Automotive Association for the financial year ended 31st December 2010

- Group revenue of RM3438.1 million for the fourth quarter ended 31st Decemeber 2010 was higher than the RM3087.3 million registered in the third quarter of 2010 by RM350.8 million or 11.4%. Higher sales registered by all four core business segments contributed to the improved revenue

- However, Group profit before taxation of RM224.7 million for the fourth quarter ended 31st December 2010 was RM116.2 million or 34.1% lower than the RM340.9 million recorded in the third quarter of 2010. The reduction in profit was mainly due to provision for impairment loss on some of our assets and investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate PE on current price 7.25 = 14.08(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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Tuesday, March 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - LATEXX / 7064 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)614,022,299 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.77-0.075)/0.2613 = 10.31 (Moderate)
Target Price2.87+0.075 = 2.95 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.2613, DPS 0.075)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 17.8% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.8%, eps decreased 41.4% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 38.2%, both positive free and net cash flow increasing, low liquidity ratio but compared to historical still consider better, better gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, benefit from latex price starting to drop, profit continue affecting by weakening of USD, privatisation on RM3.1 proposal
First Support Price2.65
Second Support Price2.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity29.38%
Dividend Yield2.71%
Profit Margin16.18%
Tax Rate39.49%
Asset Turnover1.2388
Net Asset Value Per Share0.94
Net Tangible Asset per share0.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.26
Cash Per Share0.23
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5521
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1059
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.5704
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6768
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4036
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale11.8%
Days to sell the inventory42
Days to collect the receivables42
Days to pay the payables69

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded revenue of RM106.79 million for 4Q10, a 3.8% growth from the same quarter a year ago. For the current quarter the Group achieved profit before tax of RM17.29 million, an increase of 2% from RM16.95 million in the same quarter last year. Profit after tax came in at RM10.46 million compare to RM16.49 million in the same quarter last year

- For the current year to date, the Group’s revenue increased 51.4% to RM497.32 million from RM328.47 million in the corresponding period last year. Profit before tax and profit after tax comparing to the same period last year has increased by 37.1 % and 63.8% respectively to RM84.82 million and RM70.35 million

- The increase in the Group’s revenue and improvement in the net profit of the current year was mainly due to the increase in overall sales volume, driven by the strong demand of gloves and the Group’s expanded capacity from 6 billion pieces per annum to 7 billion pieces per annum. The stronger performance was also attributed by measures taken to improve the effectiveness and efficiency in operation control; as well as intensified and aggressive marketing strategy

- For the current quarter, the Group’s revenue registered was RM106.79 million, 17.8% lower compare with RM129.88 million in the preceding quarter. Profit before tax was 14.3% lower at RM17.29 million compared to RM20.17 million recorded in the preceding quarter. Apart from the persistently high latex prices and weakening of US dollar that affected the Group’s profit margin, the decline in the Group’s revenue and profit were also due to lower sales of NR gloves and higher sales of nitrile gloves. EBITDA of the current quarter has increased 1.5%, i.e. 20.4% compare to 18.9% of the preceding quarter, attributed by higher sales of nitrile gloves. Profit after tax was 40.7% lower at RM10.46 million compared to RM17.63 million in the preceding quarter due to higher effective income tax rate of the current quarter compared to the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2751*0.95 = 0.2613, estimate PE on current price 2.77 = 10.31(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3043*0.95 = 0.289, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.91/8.15 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0824*4 = 0.3296+0.012(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3416, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.47/6.72 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0792*4 = 0.3168+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3368, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.46/9.62 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0675*4 = 0.27+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.29, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.62/12.14 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0566*4 = 0.2264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.78/10.42 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/7.81 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.047*4 = 0.188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/4.2 (DPS 0.02)

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Daily Latex Price


Monday, March 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - JOBST / 0058 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)896,783,998 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.82-0.06)/0.1441 = 19.15 (Moderate)
Target Price2.88+0.06 = 2.94 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.1441, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 26.8%, eps increased 18.5% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 76.9%, both positive free and net cash flow decreased, liquidity ratio decreased at moderate level now, below moderate gearing ratio, high payables period but is as usual
First Support Price2.8
Second Support Price2.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price3.3 (2010-12-27)
OSK Target Price2.32 (2011-01-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity24.33%
Dividend Yield1.95%
Profit Margin40.71%
Tax Rate0.13%
Asset Turnover0.5717
Net Asset Value Per Share0.52
Net Tangible Asset per share0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.59
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1168
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.1168
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.7218
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2187
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1784
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.5%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables45
Days to pay the payables178

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- For the quarter ended 31 December 2010, consolidated revenue amounted to RM29.4 million, approximately RM6.2 million or 26.8% higher than the RM23.2 million revenue for the corresponding quarter in the preceding financial year. The increase was mainly attributed to higher revenues from JobStreet ESSENTIAL (online job posting service) and JobStreet IMPACT (career website management service) by 27.1% and 31.3% respectively

- Results from operating activities rose 11.3% as a result of higher revenues from JobStreet ESSENTIAL and JobStreet IMPACT which also led to a higher gross profit margin. Operating expenses increased by 36.4% mainly due to higher staff costs and marketing expenses. On a pre-tax basis, the Group’s profit before taxation (“PBT”) recorded growth of 12.6% to RM11.9 million compared with RM10.6 million reported in the corresponding quarter in the preceding financial year. During the current quarter, the Group’s share of profit in associates and a jointly-controlled entity amounted to RM1.1 million which positively impacted profitability. In the corresponding quarter in 2009, there was a net write-back of RM1.1 million arising from the reversal of diminution in value of the Group’s investments in quoted securities and additional impairment losses on an associate

- The Group’s profit after taxation (“PAT”) increased by 53.7% to RM11.9 million compared with the RM7.8 million reported in the corresponding quarter in 2009. The higher rate of growth in PAT compared with PBT was due to lower tax expense of a subsidiary arising from the recognition of deferred tax asset during the current quarter

- For the year ended 31 December 2010, the Group’s revenue and PBT amounted to RM117.1 million and RM55.2 million respectively, or an increase of 26.9% and 50.7% respectively compared with the preceding financial year. Overall, the growth during the year was mainly attributed to the positive impact of the economic recovery on the Group’s operations in its core markets of Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines. In addition, the Group’s share of profits in 104 Corp further contributed to the Group’s consolidated earnings in 2010

- For the current quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue of RM29.4 million representing a 3.5% decrease compared with RM30.4 million recorded in the preceding quarter. This decrease was mainly due to lower sales from JobStreet ESSENTIAL due to seasonality factors and timing of dividends received from the Group’s quoted investment in Hong Kong

- In terms of profitability, PBT in the current quarter declined by 19.6% mainly due to the impact of lower sales from JobStreet ESSENTIAL, higher operating expenses, lower share of profits from associated companies and impairment of intangible assets

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0343*4*1.05 = 0.1441, estimate PE on current price 2.82 = 19.19(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0343*4*1.05 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.51/18.42 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0343*4*1.05 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.78/13.98 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0991 (5% grow from 0.0944), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.66/18.54 (DPS 0.0425)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0895 (around 5% grow from 0.085), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.8/16.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.49/15.02 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.49/13.63 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0899, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.07/11.4 (DPS 0.035)

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Sunday, March 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - TSH / 9059 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,119,231,710 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.7-0.05)/0.2482 = 10.68 (Moderate)
Target Price2.73+0.05 = 2.78 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.2482, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless CPO price increase
Comment
Revenue increased 15.5% and is second consecutive quarter increasing but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 15.3%, eps increased 142.1% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 98%, negative free cash flow decreased and net cash flow turn into positive, liquidity ratio decreasing at weak level now, gearing ratio increasing at very high level now, all accounting periods still good, monthly production decreasing, CPO price decreasing, continue affecting by weakeaning of EUR & USD currency
First Support Price2.3
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price3.4 (2011-01-13)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.05%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin17.77%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4859
Net Asset Value Per Share1.83
Net Tangible Asset per share1.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.62
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio0.6865
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3761
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1237
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3607
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5479
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-22.3%
Days to sell the inventory88
Days to collect the receivables59
Days to pay the payables65

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- For the current quarter, the Group recorded an decrease of 12.8% in revenue to RM247.4 million as compared to RM283.9 million in the previous corresponding quarter. For the year ended 31 December 2010, Group revenue was at RM909.7 million compared with RM980.3 million recorded in preceding year corresponding period

- The Group posted a higher profit before taxation of RM44.0 million as compared to RM23.8 million in the previous corresponding quarter. For the year ended 31 December 2010, profit before taxation was RM106.7 million compared with RM85.9 million registered last year

- Overall, the Palm and Bio-Integration business segment’s performance improved as a result of higher CPO prices and crop production arises mainly from higher hectarage of mature plantation field in Indonesia. The Cocoa Manufacturing segment also reported a better result due to improved margin. However, the Wood Products segment continues to be affected by its competitive and difficult operating environment especially in Europe and US where consumer sentiments and spending trends remains relatively subdued. The bulk of its sales are export orientated and its
results were also affected by the adverse currency movement notably the strength of the Ringgit Malaysia against the Euro and US

- The Group’s revenue of RM247.4 million for the quarter under review was 15.4% higher than the immediate preceding quarter of RM214.3 million. The Group posted a profit before taxation of RM44.0 million as compared to RM27.1 million in the immediate preceding quarter

- The improvement in the results was attributed mainly from the Palm and Bio-Integration segment owing to higher CPO prices and crop production. Cocoa Manufacturing segment also improved with higher revenue. The Wood Products segment recorded lower revenue due to lower business activities during the traditional year end holiday break in Europe

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.2 = 0.2482, estimate PE on current price 2.7 = 10.68
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0444*4*1.1 = 0.1954, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.84/11.41 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.033*4 = 0.132, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.21/13.94 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1938*0.95 = 0.1841, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.59/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1802*1.1 = 0.1982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.65/8.78 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0568*4*0.95 = 0.2158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/7.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.055*4*0.8 = 0.176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.97/8.35 (DPS 0.05)

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Saturday, March 19, 2011

KLCI Stock - IOICORP / 1961 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)37,067,725,485 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(5.78-0.18)/0.2944 = 19.02 (High)
Target Price4.71+0.18 = 4.89 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2944, DPS 0.18)
DecisionNot interested unless all segments profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 12.8% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 29.7%, eps increased 20.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.3%, free cash flow turn into positive but negative net cash flow increased, liquidity ratio increased from high to strong level, moderate gearing ratio, all accounting periods are good, CPO price decreasing, higher RM60 million from property investment which usually not happen, property development profit decreasing
First Support Price5.55
Second Support Price5.35
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price6.62 (2011-01-18)
ECM Target Price5.94 (2011-02-17)
Maybank Target Price6.35 (2011-02-17)
MIDF Target Price6.81 (2011-02-17)
OSK Target Price4.41 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price6.72 (2011-02-17)
RHB Target Price6.15 (2011-03-11)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity17.74%
Dividend Yield3.11%
Profit Margin17.53%
Tax Rate19.48%
Asset Turnover0.7509
Net Asset Value Per Share1.69
Net Tangible Asset per share1.61
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.55
Cash Per Share0.56
Liquidity Current Ratio4.0902
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.7981
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.8845
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6188
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3759
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale44.0%
Days to sell the inventory83
Days to collect the receivables40
Days to pay the payables43

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The Group reported a pre-tax profit of RM689.3 million for Q2 FY2011, which is 15% higher than RM598.2 million reported for Q2 FY2010. The higher profit is due mainly to higher profit contribution from the plantation and property segment

- The plantation segment reported a 14% increase in operating profit to RM363.7 million for Q2 FY2011 as compared to RM319.9 million for Q2 FY2010. The higher profit is mainly due to higher CPO and PK prices realised. Average CPO price realised for Q2 FY2011 is RM2,800/MT compared to RM2,225/MT for Q2 FY2010, while average PK price realised for Q2 FY2011 is RM1,979/MT compared to RM1,089/MT for Q2 FY2010

- The higher operating profit for property development and investment is mainly due to gains recognised on disposal of investment properties amounting to approximately RM61 million during Q2 FY2011

- Despite the higher profits achieved in refining activities, the resource-based manufacturing segment recorded lower profits mainly due to fair value losses on the adoption of FRS 139. During Q2 FY2011, the total fair value losses on derivative contracts recognised is approximately RM73 million

- In the opinion of the Directors, the results for the financial period under review have not been affected by any transaction or event of a material or unusual nature which may have arisen between 31 December 2010 and the date of this announcement

- The Group reported a pre-tax profit of RM689.3 million for Q2 FY2011, which is 4% higher than the profit reported for Q1 FY2011 of RM661.7 million. Total segment results of the Group for Q2
FY2011 is RM664.6 million, 18% higher than the segment results reported for Q1 FY2011 of RM565.6 million

- The plantation segment reported a 5% increase in operating profit to RM363.7 million for Q2 FY2011 as compared to RM345.3 million for Q1 FY2011. Despite the lower FFB production, the plantation segment recorded higher profits mainly due to an increase in average CPO and PK prices realised

- Operating profit from the property segment for Q2 FY2011 is higher than the preceding quarter by 20%, mainly due to gains on disposal of investment properties of approximately RM61 million

- The resource-based manufacturing segment reported a profit of RM94.8 million in Q2 FY2011, 135% higher than Q1 FY2011 due mainly to higher profit achieved in refining activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1472*2 = 0.2944, estimate PE on current price 5.78 = 19.02(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.09*4 = 0.36, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.64/14.64 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0828*4*1.05 = 0.3478, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.79/14.32 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0692*1.1*4 = 0.3045, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/15.04 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0729*4 = 0.2916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/17.46 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0737*4 = 0.2948, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.86/16.72 (DPS 0.07)

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Friday, March 18, 2011

KLCI Stock - BPURI / 5932 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)133,868,044 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.24-0.04)/0.1176 = 10.20 (High)
Target Price1.18+0.04 = 1.22 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1176, DPS 0.04)
DecisionNOT BUY unless price below 1.1
Comment
Revenue increased 26% and is consecutive second quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.6%, eps decreased 10.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.9%, negative free cash flow decreasing and net cash flow turn into positive but cash at year end still negative, low liquidity ratio, gearing ratio increased at very high level now, receivables and payables periods as usual is high
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.1
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Kenanga Target Price1.6 (2011-03-01)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.14%
Dividend Yield3.23%
Profit Margin0.90%
Tax Rate8.81%
Asset Turnover1.5847
Net Asset Value Per Share1.04
Net Tangible Asset per share1.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.26
Cash Per Share0.68
Liquidity Current Ratio1.0269
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0191
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1108
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio5.989
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.8436
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale1.4%
Days to sell the inventory2
Days to collect the receivables174
Days to pay the payables114

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- For the year ended 31 December 2010, the Group achieved a revenue of RM1.2 billion and profit before tax of RM14.59 illion as compared to the previous corresponding year of RM788.05million and RM11.50 million respectively

- The construction division recorded a revenue of RM1.16 billion and profit before tax of RM11.85 million as compared to the previous corresponding year of RM699.55 million and RM9.06 million respectively. The improved performance of this division was mainly attributable to progressive profit recognised from the projects in progress

- The quarry and ready mix concrete division recorded a revenue of RM81.69 million and profit before tax of RM2.32 million as compared to the previous corresponding year of RM65.57 million and RM2.22 million respectively. The performance of this division remains satisfactory

- The polyol division recorded a revenue of RM15.16 million and profit before tax of RM41,000 as compared to the previous corresponding year of RM15.43 million and RM170,000 respectively. The performance of the division was affected by lack of export market, higher cost of raw materials and intense competition in the local market

- The operation of the power plants in the 2nd half of the year had contributed RM86,000 to the Group earnings

- During the quarter under review, the Group achieved a revenue of RM371.3 million as compared to the immediate preceding quarter of RM294.8 million

- The Group’s recorded a profit before tax of RM3.36 million for the 4th quarter ended 31 December 2010 as compared to the preceding quarter of RM4.2 million

- The current value of contract work in progress is approximately RM2.5 billion

- Launching development projects in Klang Valley, Johor Bahru and Kota Kinabalu with gross development value of RM800 million

- The construction of the 33km Kuala Lumpur – Kuala Selangor Expressway (KLS) dual carriageway linking the coastal area of North-West Selangor with Kuala Lumpur is on target to be fully operational by the 2nd quarter of 2011. The Group is optimistic that KLS will contribute positively to the Group’s future earnings

- The Group has ventured into power supply to the Perbandaran Letrik Negara, Indonesia (equivalent to Tenaga Nasional Bhd in Malaysia). The operation of the power plants will contribute positively to the Group’s earnings in the future

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.028*4*1.05 = 0.1176, estimate PE on current price 1.24 = 10.2(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.1/11.9 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0463*2 = 0.0926, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.15/11.23 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0828(10% grow from 0.0753, added adjustment from last quarter estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.12/11.59 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0781(10% grow from 0.071), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.26/9.8 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.078, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.9/8.91 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.17/11.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.39/15.08 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.78/14.19 (DPS 0.04)

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Thursday, March 17, 2011

KLCI Stock - AMWAY / 6351 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,397,277,982 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(8.5-0.66)/0.5142 = 15.25 (Moderate)
Target Price8.23+0.66 = 8.89 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.5142, DPS 0.66)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 3.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.1%, eps decreased 14.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.8%, positive free cash flow decreased but net cash flow turn into negative, liquidity ratio decreasing from moderate to low level, moderate gearing ratio, all accounting periods are good, working capital getting lesser, continue to benefit from weak USD
First Support Price8.1
Second Support Price7.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price11.05 (2011-02-17)
RHB Target Price10.23 (2011-02-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity37.13%
Dividend Yield7.76%
Profit Margin15.22%
Tax Rate34.65%
Asset Turnover2.2392
Net Asset Value Per Share1.28
Net Tangible Asset per share1.25
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share6.64
Cash Per Share0.83
Liquidity Current Ratio1.991
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4718
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2385
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5239
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3438
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale15.2%
Days to sell the inventory36
Days to collect the receivables13
Days to pay the payables68

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s sales revenue recorded an increase of 7.1% for the quarter under review and 8.4% for the year ended 31 December 2010 as compared to the corresponding periods in the preceding year. The growth in sales revenue was mainly attributable to increase in distributors’ productivity driven by sales and marketing program implemented in the periods under review, the effort index adjustment and the distributor price increase implemented in first half of the year

- The Group’s profit before tax increased by 25.4% for the quarter under review and 10.4% for the year ended 31 December 2010 as compared to the corresponding periods in the preceding year mainly due to the increase in sales revenue

- The Group’s sales revenue decreased by 3.9% as compared to the preceding quarter mainly due to enhanced sales and marketing program implemented in the preceding quarter

- The Group’s profit before tax decreased by 2.7% as compared to the preceding quarter in line with lower sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4761*1.08 = 0.5142, estimate PE on current price 8.5 = 15.25(DPS 0.66)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.21/13.46 (DPS 0.64)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3335+(0.1246*1.2) = 0.5497, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/13.43 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3261+(0.099*1.1) = 0.4676(Correction to preceding Q estimated), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.3/14.71 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.62/16.99 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246*4 = 0.4984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/13.46 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.099*4 = 0.396, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/16.92 (DPS 0.5)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.118*4 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.79/13.73 (DPS 0.52)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.1332*4 = 0.5328, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.06/11.75 (DPS 0.54)

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KLCI Stock - AHEALTH / 7090 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)253,035,562 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.7-0.13)/0.336 = 7.65 (Moderate)
Target Price2.69+0.13 = 2.82 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.336, DPS 0.13)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.5%, eps increased 82.9% to highest record (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21%), positive free cash flow increasing but positive net cash flow decreased, liquidity ratio increased at moderate level now, gearing ratio decreased at below moderate level now, all accounting periods are good, expecting new income from JB new retail
First Support Price2.6
Second Support Price2.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.61%
Dividend Yield4.81%
Profit Margin24.95%
Tax Rate8.46%
Asset Turnover1.1794
Net Asset Value Per Share1.95
Net Tangible Asset per share1.94
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.38
Cash Per Share0.25
Liquidity Current Ratio2.513
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8033
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.424
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.3696
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2543
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale26.4%
Days to sell the inventory58
Days to collect the receivables88
Days to pay the payables76

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group's revenue for the final quarter of 2010 was RM77.5 million and its profit before tax was RM19.4 million. For the 12 months to December 2010, the Group achieved record revenues of RM313.7 million and profit before tax of RM45.1 million, representing increases of 11% and 50% respectively over the result for the previous financial year. After adjusting for non-recurring income, Group pre-tax profit for 2010 is RM 35.0 million, an increase of 31% over that achieved in 2009

- Xepa-Soul Pattinson(Malaysia) Sdn Bhd's(Xepa) full year performance exceeded budget with revenue growth of 14% over 2009, driven by continued strong sales in domestic markets, improved exports and contract manufacturing. During the quarter, Xepa entered into a licensing, manufacturing and supply agreement with GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals Sdn Bhd in respect of six products for the treatment of cardiovascular and metabolic conditions. Additional production capacity for solid pharmaceutical products and a new Knowledge Centre was commissioned as interim upgrading works were completed

- In the same period, Apex Pharmacy Marketing Sdn Bhd('Apex') secured ISO 9001 certification for its distribution operations in Subang Jaya. Wholesale and Distribution performed well, with improved gross margins. This is attributed to a greater proportion of own brand products in the sales mix and better purchasing. New own brand products launched in the quarter by the Group include Avegesic(meloxicam 15mg) for pain management under the AVEX brand and the AvoMeter range of blood glucose monitoring meters

- Based on unaudited management accounts of the Group's associated company, Xiamen Maidiken Science & Technology Co Ltd('MDK'), China, total profit contribution rose 125% to RM15.9 million for year 2010, which includes a non-recurring component of RM10.1m. This non-recurring component is attributable to the issuance of shares at a premium to new investors by MDK's intermediate holding company for its retail and distribution operations, Luyan(Fujian) Pharma Co., Ltd. MDK's core business operations grew strongly, driven by strong domestic demand and sound business planning and execution, of which the Group‟s share is RM 5.8 million

- Profit before tax for the current quarter is RM19.3 million, an increase of 113% compared to RM9.1 million in the previous quarter. This is attributed mainly to the Group's recognition of non-recurring income of RM 10.1 million from its investment in MDK

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.08*4*1.05 = 0.336(exclude non-recurring income RM10.1 million), estimate PE on current price 2.7 = 7.65(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0771*4*1.05 = 0.3238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7.38 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1334*2*1.1 = 0.2935 (0.1334 is recent 2Q cum_eps, 10% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.7/7.85 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.32 (add 5% adjustment from 0.3048 due to profit boosted), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.48/8.41 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3048 (10% grow from 0.2771(after deducted 3.4 mil)), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/6.18 (DPS 0.1975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.82/7.26 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2365, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.83/6.44 (DPS 0.0975)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2312, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.64/5.47 (DPS 0.095)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.11/4.59 (DPS 0.095)

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Wednesday, March 16, 2011

KLCI Stock - AIRPORT / 5014 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)6,655,000,000 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.05-0.08)/0.3362 = 17.76 (High)
Target Price5.38+0.08 = 5.46 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.3362, DPS 0.08)
DecisionNOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue largely increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps largely increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow more negative but positive net cash flow largely increasing, passenger traffic increasing, cargo volume decreased, KLIA2 target completed by April 2012
First Support Price6.0
Second Support Price5.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HLG Target Price6.58 (2010-12-28)
Macquarie Target Price7.5 (2011-01-14)
OSK Target Price8.47 (2011-02-11)
Maybank Target Price7.12 (2011-02-14)
Kenanga Target Price6.64 (2011-02-17)
MIDF Target Price7.2 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price6.6 (2011-02-17)
RHB Target Price7.67 (2011-03-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.93%
Dividend Yield1.32%
Profit Margin31.06%
Tax Rate34.46%
Asset Turnover0.2559
Net Asset Value Per Share2.99
Net Tangible Asset per share2.99
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.07
Cash Per Share1.46
Liquidity Current Ratio3.244
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.1642
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.1025
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1555
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5357
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale94.5%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables163
Days to pay the payables437

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The consolidated revenue of the Group for the current quarter under review was 3.7% higher than the corresponding period in the previous year

- The improved revenue in the current quarter was mainly attributed to stronger results from the Group’s airport operations, driven by strong recovery in air travel demand. Passenger movements for the current quarter were 6.5% higher than the corresponding period in the previous year, in which the international and domestic passenger movements increased by 12.0% and 1.8% respectively

- The positive variance in revenue was also contributed by growth in the Group’s retail business as well as higher rental revenue derived from additional commercial spaces

- The consolidated revenue of the Group for the current quarter under review improved by 10.8% as compared with the immediate preceding quarter, which was mainly contributed by higher revenue from retail, project & repair maintenance and aeronautical revenue. Aeronautical and retail revenue improved in tandem with stronger passenger numbers, with total passenger movements for the current quarter being 6.5% higher than the immediate preceding quarter, in which international and domestic passenger movements improved by 5.5% and 7.6% respectively

- Profit before tax and zakat for the current quarter under review was higher than the immediate preceding quarter by 68.1%, mainly due to a huge increase in revenue contrasted by a marginal increase in total costs. Total costs increased by 6.5% arising mainly from utilities, staff costs and cost of direct materials incurred by the retail segment. The higher direct material was in line with the higher retail revenue. Provision for doubtful debt was, however, reduced in the current quarter as a result of settlements made by debtors. In addition, the positive variance was also contributed by lower share of loss recorded by an associate company

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0764*4*1.1 = 0.3362(deduct 16 million other income for adjustment), estimate PE on current price 6.05 = 17.76(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.06*4*1.1 = 0.264(associates increasing loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.49/21.41 (DPS 0.149)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3233*0.95 = 0.3071, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.12/16.55 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3429*0.9 = 0.3086 (10% drop from 0.3429), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.24/14.81 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.086*4 = 0.344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.97/12.89 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0758*4 = 0.3032, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.72/11.36 (DPS 0.233)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.068*4 = 0.272, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/11.6 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0695*4 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.07/10.27 (DPS 0.1855)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.37/7.63 (DPS 0.1855)

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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

KLCI Stock - WCT / 9679 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,385,186,423 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.02-0.1)/0.1699 = 17.19 (High)
Target Price2.55+0.1 = 2.65 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.1699, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 22.5% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 63.8%, eps increased 36.7% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.1%, negative free cash flow decreased and net cash flow turn into positive, liquidity ratio increasing but still at low level now, gearing ratio increased and still at very high level now, receivables and payables period increased to very high but offset by working capital also increased 4 times, high material cost may impact property development and civil engineering & construction segments, new warrants which is going to dilute the earning per share
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.8
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price4.15 (2011-01-11)
Maybank Target Price3.75 (2011-02-11)
HLG Target Price3.85 (2011-03-01)
OSK Target Price3.75 (2011-03-10)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.24%
Dividend Yield3.31%
Profit Margin20.96%
Tax Rate12.43%
Asset Turnover0.3718
Net Asset Value Per Share1.57
Net Tangible Asset per share1.57
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.84
Cash Per Share1.46
Liquidity Current Ratio1.6905
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4914
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7533
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4528
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6676
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale62.4%
Days to sell the inventory77
Days to collect the receivables243
Days to pay the payables261

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- For the quarter under review, the Group achieved revenue of RM438 million as compared with RM1208 million of the corresponding quarter. Net profit after taxation and minority interest of the Group was RM42 million as compared with RM33 million of the corresponding quarter

- For the current financial year to date, the Group achieved revenue of RM1709 million and net profit after taxation and minority interest of RM141 million against revenue of RM4.7 billion and net profit after taxation and minority interest of RM147 million respectively recorded in the previous financial year

- For the quarter under review, the Group recorded revenue and net profit after taxation and minority interest of RM438 million and RM42 million as compared to revenue and profit after taxation and minority interest of RM357 million and RM31 million reported in the immediate preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699(offset higher profit from property investment due to profit from this segment usually not maintaining), estimate PE on current price 3.02 = 17.19(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0809*2*1.05 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.78/16.24 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1703*1.1 = 0.1873, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.14/14.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0441*4*0.9 = 0.1588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.51/14.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.88/15.13 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/13.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0535*4 = 0.214, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.85/11.07 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/8.48 (DPS 0.095, economy crisis)

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