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Thursday, June 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - SAPCRES / 8575 - 2012 Quarter 1

SAPURACREST PETROLEUM BERHAD

Company Description
SAPURACREST PETROLEUM BERHAD is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services to its subsidiaries. It has four segments: installation of pipelines and facilities, which involves the installation of offshore platforms and marine pipelines; offshore oil and gas drilling, which involves drilling of offshore oilwells and chartering of rigs involved in drilling offshore oilwells; marine services, which involves provision of offshore geotechnical and geophysical services to the oil and gas industry, development of marine technology and marine chartering, specializing on remotely operated vehicle, and operations and maintenance, which involves repairs and refurbishment of industrial gas turbines, supply, installation, commissioning and maintenance of point-of-sale systems for petrol stations and asset management services for offshore installations. In July 2008, the Company acquired two shelf private limited companies, Aurabayu Sdn Bhd and Geomark Sdn Bhd.

Company Info
Listing Date1992-10-15
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,362,234,281 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.20
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryOil & Gas Drilling
Sub IndustryInstallation of Offshore Platform & Marine Pipelines
Websitehttp://www.crest.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(4.2-0.085)/0.1994 = 20.64 (High)
Target Price3.59+0.085 = 3.67 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.1994, DPS 0.085)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 9.7% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 17.8%, eps decreased 0.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 42.8%, cash generated from operating is enough to cover financing activities and partial of investing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio still slightly high, higher profit but revenue decreasing
First Support Price4.1
Second Support Price3.6
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price4.2 (2011-03-29)
MIDF Target Price4 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price4.61 (2011-04-26)
RHB Target Price4.61 (2011-04-28)
AMMB Target Price4.75 (2011-05-19)
CIMB Target Price5.12 (2011-06-02)
ECM Target Price4.2 (2011-06-02)
Kenanga Target Price4.49 (2011-06-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity17.38%
Dividend Yield2.02%
Profit Margin22.76%
Tax Rate12.02%
Asset Turnover0.8552
Net Asset Value Per Share0.91
Net Tangible Asset per share0.79
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share5.32
Cash Per Share0.59
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4105
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.372
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4859
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.7893
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5777
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale20.7%
Days to sell the inventory8
Days to collect the receivables162
Days to pay the payables178

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to lower activities in the operation and maintenance division

- Higher pbt than FY11Q4 due to higher contribution largely from drilling division

- Lower revenue than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower activities in the IPF, drilling and marine services divisions

- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 principally due to better performance in IPF, drilling and marine services divisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = (0.0567+0.043)*2 = 0.1994, estimate PE on current price 4.2 = 20.64(DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.62/18.55 (DPS 0.085)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.043*4*1.1 = 0.1892, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.24/14.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0417*4*1.05 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.22/12.79 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1345(maintain same eps as year 2010 due to revenue decreased but profit increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/15.54 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1345*0.95 = 0.1278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/14.08 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0422*4*0.8 = 0.135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/15.48 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0414*4*0.9 = 0.149, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.71/11.01 (DPS 0.06)

SAPCRES latest news (English)

SAPCRES latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-06-3020121N/AN/A-4.77%4.77%55081655081612538212538272345723450.05670.056735944762076597357339151787910748617160950247563999032646987517011276722127672253622322011-04-3022.76%12.02%0.8552-0.910.795.320.591.41051.3720.48591.78930.577720.7%8162178
2011-03-28201144.353.580.0555.11%16.28%6099473193564112522424062726752314480.05690.1813363959222181823256181421410435382441927498968269836545564417705421276722127672245323632011-01-3118.45%13.41%0.877519.58260.860.744.80.61.23261.20230.42532.02430.609513.2%7160177
2010-12-10201133.92.84-3.78%10.95%10151452583617100072311540548371587730.04300.1244392917324793634035421449810178995207998122916843061290031519196911421276722127672236386572010-10-319.86%7.89%0.7808-0.820.74.070.541.25041.21580.32822.36970.63117.2%10222243
2010-09-29201122.912.310.033.72%7.27%8981161568472112811211468532461039360.04170.0814359043521602093836221430226143645180177118319859328365321548517044771276722127672230130632010-07-3112.56%12.16%0.8572-0.820.73.370.551.31631.27840.3982.0640.601718.2%9185209
2010-06-24201112.462.16-3.62%3.62%670356670356986579865750690506900.03970.0397334562919442563520981401373880143615927368647071444952372316274761276722127672228470902010-04-3014.72%11.60%0.9598-0.820.73.190.491.35371.31430.40671.8530.581117.0%8159169
2010-03-24201042.511.870.042.78%11.78%484476325704372456363999405711720350.03210.13593349261188894139710314603208051502289452764365754825762052997698752511265730126573029871222010-01-3114.96%-0.972517.36350.840.723.280.691.42061.38380.59411.77660.56419.0%7130146
2009-12-29201032.582.15-3.81%9.36%10248112772567115548291543534421314640.04220.10393945384254110838057614042765108402142581267085842612965821698747541351265730126573032022962009-10-3111.28%14.38%0.91-0.810.693.670.61.29311.26570.35722.48230.644117.2%7195194
2009-09-10201022.551.70.033.54%5.28%1031573174775610787417599552362780220.04140.061739917572512792424516147896547291498265145555847723746493600949448661265140126514021507382009-07-3110.46%13.28%0.9048-0.830.722.360.751.35721.32960.45552.3830.629520.5%7183183
2009-06-17201011.761.3-1.79%1.79%716183716183681216812125660256600.02030.02033636242219981442360014364285856130651189785865862791089325955181263650126365018954752009-04-309.51%11.13%0.958-0.80.682.210.471.41721.38330.34322.1720.60520.9%7190152
2009-03-12200941.660.620.031.99%8.75%817697345170272189281560263931157740.02080.091335313822207795401197132358744230583108127535358722359197231662590384126856812685687801692009-01-318.83%10.85%0.97746.73870.730.611.010.471.35351.32490.34022.39360.625217.9%6182148
2008-12-10200930.9250.610.022.98%7.20%104642626340058945820937136926893810.02870.069635275642286596344880124096830921711732012529835958819189766599426187128465012846509442172008-10-318.55%12.72%0.9165-0.70.581.270.331.29991.26860.23512.55180.648216.9%7213162
2008-09-16200921.320.52-2.70%4.42%90313315875797473411991332100524550.02480.040632729652084928325761118803726360441976510323572652216281705965278611292774129277415642562008-07-318.27%10.94%0.8571-0.670.552.20.411.32611.28820.32782.41790.63718.7%9201155
2008-06-24200911.451.17-1.79%1.79%684446684446451794517920355203550.01580.01583077920194173230471511361881469535541403963530391414121010164540551286496128649618139592008-04-306.60%9.75%0.8033-0.650.532.660.351.33411.29040.31432.33530.630919.6%11209150
2008-03-26200841.681.120.023.11%7.32%59909822619056501317139333277782640.02800.0659297823219095942721651068638131194285618214811293822154424603873542091186782118678213291952008-01-3110.85%13.15%0.759516.98350.670.552.040.31.30141.25990.25612.39760.641218.4%10224152
2007-12-13200831.960.98-2.25%4.33%61860216628074965310638023329449870.01970.03803178239214041127608610378283692242783276624292931239091375333304641184981118498118485702007-10-318.03%8.81%0.6627-0.640.523.00.281.30251.27170.22042.80990.673521.5%9273185
2007-09-20200821.891.35-1.11%2.15%5704861044205332055672711211216580.00960.018528931431886900252526100624339355152034124297292643112679116183042611171393117139322139322007-07-315.82%16.61%0.5141-0.640.523.630.261.40391.36710.24832.50350.652233.7%12341235
2007-06-2120081N/AN/A-1.83%1.83%473719473719266732667313598135980.01120.011226921011948529236798743572654179142684529218072601657562264241215507121550723580832007-04-305.63%7.21%0.3406-0.420.36.470.191.44911.41380.2073.8450.723853.8%17527363
2007-03-2720074N/AN/A0.021.13%2.71%443262176611819837411757378176910.00830.020025539621899969216806653993105394537411304736511134835782122868998860048860046379222007-01-314.48%-0.1736-0.490.332.180.331.52471.48150.29244.34590.7439118.1%40975670

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAmount due from jointly controlled entities (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20121-6095154205240473-1011613--751701-2275595781368536134581194514908-98166352175391319047357339
20114-9093154688229493-1019148--768381-98554787140301767582322402252-524412354144191385952325618
20113-12541149163229443-904565--691142-54572862186891281573197361855-582817002529011845725403542
20112-12788149213177602-921058--704477-36667173155775873794574378337-540919221978631564725383622
20111-14196149263188837-904656--627476--60783140041871314672389546-673915402158031318825352098
20104-14675149314192107-900456--875251--54276116318210509-405311-5284-2975971170240397103
20103-8748149364154522-902956--754135--57846191781311320-418794-20807-3878091702378380576
20102-8915149414143298-874475--944866--57273181351611290-426951-14790-4506691609092424516
20101-7971149465104581-905298--597975--5904218119109746-447952-11902-4389851291229423600
20094-11001149515105508-903559--593538--5002317182388583-454307-14485-4777251252695401197
20093-1932149588125046-880474--428640--5715818847267868-455167-18072-5317621273727344880
20092-2152149773131695-854067--527861--6112615462919423-465364-14302-5379631057876325761
20091-23671465524821494122852045--455747--6337314155009222-482423-10234-536199903654304715
20084-1358145994154279-876294--354209--5737313887259368-516868-9384-540038833936272165
200839101317211460561131424705949350-7598330704--4608615696929091-63102238537421-537247951777276086
200827087717641461051014131645891278-8740308024--4566913789008796-637768484711565-364362859562252526
20081-18061461549376341978431656424170052275682054-3874913177868493-84060783118947-275517806654236798
20074-1287146202914091374784645-60592917942101-4317311781878153-894050470210307-268803713954216806

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesAfter tax effect
20121550816150751256266134305703796211085-
201146099471509412377104455202772475324784-
2011310151457899966649179612773733650953-
2011289811613722767220457929474584313269-
2011167035611446850252035796883652111288-
2010448447697791089872484354544166427084-
201031024811166181118986089219624548815280-
20102103157314321117906534920122411911679-
201017161837585113091030640519348762736-
2009481769778291496336477151953796718997-
20093104642611383136792807940067411496029-
2009290313381741426647318085423446010322-
200916844464404148762071616714204209748-
200845990988552228053188511970231842498-
200836186024374205934450547669219505137-
200825704865517155272302522025164772031-
2008147371919221869016104273291115357883151
200744432621010348616851391615134693800-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtInstallation of Pipelines and FacilitiesDrillingMarine ServicesOperations and Maintenance
20121272796178725895219774
201142867061864027467362166
20113720732203330831887895
2011254639521981411927412633
201113556241948381118528042
2010417867218710310361515295
201036248541967621937119484
2010261485921820618158216926
2010129590424221516719810866
2009438358726272319052012988
200936626932291721474087153
200924976542219871741759317
200913485761916791359408251
2008428290719549410819212545
2008331189719130410225213149
2008223697516589715537412240
200811929991539111180738736
2007417486812198013226914145

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtInstallation of Pipelines and FacilitiesDrillingMarine ServicesOperations and Maintenance
2012164766792141247550
201146568546752131567397
20113829387924339242684
20112372779967044201319
2011146002762918138958
201045356383499437103400
20103575099453620766536
2010235342877454743258
20101122427134711522110
200941306969464147135123
20093248507928569541286
20092232776571862692647
200911736139333124762191
200841098843944257951010
200831799441606104042813
20082621231141125612972
2008177752304063301924
20074163223031241352193


Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables






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CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
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KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.18/0.0066 = 27.27 (High)
Target Price0.0066*6.0 = 0.04 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0066)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue decreased 22.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.1%, eps reduced 80.8% loss but compared to preceding year corresponding quarter still largely increased loss, no cash generated from operating, mainly depend on bank borrowing to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from latex price decreasing, benefit from strengthening of USD against Ringgit
First Support Price0.175
Second Support Price0.16
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-41.84%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-23.40%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.638
Net Asset Value Per Share0.22
Net Tangible Asset per share0.22
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.82
Cash Per Share0.14
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5523
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.0814
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7667
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9863
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4965
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.2%
Days to sell the inventory79
Days to collect the receivables73
Days to pay the payables32

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The decline in the Group's result were mainly due to record high latex prices that caused the sharp drop in sales of natural latex gloves and the continuous weakening of US Dollar which had significantly eroded the Group's profit margin

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate PE on current price 0.18 = 27.27
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 40.15/23.48
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.28/2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)297,932,251 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.95-0.07)/0.156 = 12.05 (High)
Target Price1.56+0.07 = 1.63 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.156, DPS 0.07)
DecisionNot interested due to high PE compare to it market capital
Comment
Revenue decreased 1.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.6%, eps increased 13.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.9%, no cash generated from operating and cash generated from financing also not enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from USD currency slowly recover, benefit from latex price slowly decrease
First Support Price1.85
Second Support Price1.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price3.04 (2011-04-01)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.92%
Dividend Yield3.59%
Profit Margin2.99%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8851
Net Asset Value Per Share1.49
Net Tangible Asset per share1.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.33
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio1.069
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6283
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1644
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9264
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.48
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.1%
Days to sell the inventory76
Days to collect the receivables76
Days to pay the payables45

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt due to high material cost in latex push manufacturing cost up faster than the Group can pass on to the market

- Latex price in the quarter averaged RM10.31/kg against RM9.28/kg in Q1 2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.03*4*1.3 = 0.156, estimate PE on current price 1.95 = 12.05(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0265*4*1.3 = 0.1378(slowly recover), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.91/13.5 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/12.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/8.71 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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KLCI Stock - KFC / 3492 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,054,072,036 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.85-0.155)/0.2336 = 15.82 (Moderate)
Target Price3.74+0.155 = 3.89 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2336, DPS 0.155)
DecisionNot buy unless price below 3.7
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.2%, eps decreased 25.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.6%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but remaining not enough for investing expenses, null
First Support Price3.85
Second Support Price3.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BIMB Target Price4.3 (2011-02-22)
Maybank Target Price3.97 (2011-02-22)
AMMB Target Price4.15 (2011-03-03)
RHB Target Price3.74 (2011-04-27)
OSK Target Price4.15 (2011-05-25)
MIDF Target Price4.12 (2011-06-14)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.96%
Dividend Yield4.03%
Profit Margin8.17%
Tax Rate30.01%
Asset Turnover1.5956
Net Asset Value Per Share1.24
Net Tangible Asset per share1.15
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.35
Cash Per Share0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1433
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6231
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2218
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6006
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3715
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale2.4%
Days to sell the inventory34
Days to collect the receivables24
Days to pay the payables59

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group’s revenue for the period under review improved primarily from its continuing strategy of network expansion and its effective KFC marketing programs. The growth in the integrated poultry segment was attributed to better sales to the restaurants and retail outlets and the continuing improvement in its local open market sales and export sales

- Malaysia KFC restaurants revenue and profit growth were due to :-
i) continuing network expansion where 8 new KFC restaurants were opened during the period under review
ii) introduction of innovative new products and promotions such as the 500th restaurant celebration Combo, KFC Fish Donut and KFC Lunch Treats

- Foreign KFC restaurants lower profitability attributed to :-
i) Singapore operations introduction of new products such as the Fortune Feast, KFC Mandarin Orange egg tarts during the festive season and value products such as KFC Snacker and Hearty Deal drove sales and transactions at the restaurants. However its profitability was dampened by the increased operating costs
ii) India outlets registered encouraging sales but its profitability was hampered by initial start-up costs

- Integrated Poultry division registered improved sales to the KFC restaurants and better sales of its Ayamas products to the local open market and export market, its profitability was negatively affected by its Rasamas restaurants performance

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.061+0.0452)*2*1.1 = 0.2336, estimate PE on current price 3.85 = 15.82(DPS 0.155)

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KLCI Stock - INGRESS / 7112 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)59,904,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.78/0.1209 = 6.45 (High)
Target Price0.1209*5.0 = 0.60 (PE 5.0, EPS 0.1209)
DecisionNot interested unless PEP division recover from loss
Comment
Revenue decreased 7.6% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3%, eps increased 229.9% and is second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 33.7%, no cash generated from operating after deduct operating expenses however cash generated from financing almost enough to cover financing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, automotive division revenue decreasing, power and engineering projects remaining loss
First Support Price0.755
Second Support Price0.7
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.05%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin6.04%
Tax Rate1.59%
Asset Turnover1.3049
Net Asset Value Per Share2.12
Net Tangible Asset per share2.08
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.37
Cash Per Share0.84
Liquidity Current Ratio1.2107
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9739
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2852
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.1217
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5958
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale6.3%
Days to sell the inventory27
Days to collect the receivables74
Days to pay the payables56

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Automotive Division recorded higher profit before tax was mainly attributed to better product sales mix for the quarter

- Power Engineering and Projects Division previous financial year corresponding quarter profit before tax includes a one time gain on disposal of 19% shares in an associate company, amounted to RM7.6 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1151*1.05 = 0.1209(exclude RM4.7 million other income), estimate PE on current price 0.78 = 6.45
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0274*4*1.05 = 0.1151, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.86/6.47
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0272*4*1.05 = 0.1142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.36/5.95
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1288*1.05 = 0.1352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0322*4 = 0.1288(0.0322 is eps after exclude 8 million from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.41/4.81
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0346*4 = 0.1384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.99/3.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4 = 0.1428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.023*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.24/3.53

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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - AIRASIA / 5099 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)9,355,303,934 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.37-0.03)/0.3189 = 10.47 (Moderate)
Target Price4.46+0.03 = 4.49 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.3189, DPS 0.03)
DecisionWatching, buy when sell volume lower
Comment
Revenue decreased 11.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.4%, eps decreased 45.9% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 32.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses but still increased borrowing, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio but still at very high level now, all accounting ratio also improved, oil price decreasing
First Support Price2.95
Second Support Price2.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2 (2011-05-05)
RHB Target Price2.66 (2011-05-16)
AMMB Target Price3.6 (2011-05-24)
ECM Target Price3.56 (2011-05-25)
HLG Target Price3.4 (2011-05-25)
OSK Target Price3.89 (2011-05-25)
Golman Sachs Target Price3.2 (2011-06-02)
CIMB Target Price4.2 (2011-06-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price4.8 (2011-06-27)
MIDF Target Price3.43 (2011-06-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity29.76%
Dividend Yield0.89%
Profit Margin19.36%
Tax Rate15.25%
Asset Turnover0.3148
Net Asset Value Per Share1.37
Net Tangible Asset per share1.37
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.23
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio1.653
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6422
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2027
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4645
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7114
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale26.6%
Days to sell the inventory3
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables169

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The revenue growth was supported by 17% growth in passenger volume offset by an average fare that was 5% lower at RM164 as compared to RM173 achieved in 1Q10. Ancillary income per passenger year-on-year rose by 31% to RM50 from RM38. Seat load factor was 6 percentage points higher at 80% compared to 74% in the same period last year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0618*1.2)+(0.0618*1.2*1.1*3) = 0.3189, estimate PE on current price 3.37 = 10.47(DPS 0.03)

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Saturday, June 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - KENCANA / 5122 - 2011 Quarter 3

KENCANA PETROLEUM BERHAD

Company Description
KENCANA PETROLEUM BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company is engaged in providing engineering and fabrication services, as well as marine engineering and operations services businesses. Through marine engineering, it is involved in building, refurbishing, repairing and converting marine vessels. The Company provides offshore drilling services, as well as charter of vessels and rigs, through its operations service business. Its subsidiaries include Kencana HL Sdn. Bhd., Kencana Marine Sdn. Bhd., Kencana Metering Sdn. Bhd., Kencana Infrastructure Sdn. Bhd. and Kencana Steelworks Sdn. Bhd., among others. The principal activities of the subsidiaries include integrated engineering and fabrication of oil and gas production facilities and drilling rigs; operation and management of fabrication yard; metering works, process skid systems and pipeline construction, and property investment. On September 5, 2007, the Company acquired Kencana Petroleum Ventures Sdn. Bhd.

Company Info
Listing Date2006-12-15
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,127,405,081 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryOil & Gas Services
Sub IndustryOffshore Drilling & Marine Services
Websitehttp://www.kencanapetroleum.com.my/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.79-0.0050)/0.1109 = 25.11 (High)
Target Price2.33+0.0050 = 2.33 (PE 21.0, EPS 0.1109, DPS 0.0050)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 7.2% and is highest since FY08Q3(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 34.8%), eps decreased 8.7% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover investing expenses hence generated more cash from financing activities, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, lower gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio improved, more work from Petronas
First Support Price2.6
Second Support Price2.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price3.1 (2011-01-06)
Affin Target Price3.21 (2011-01-27)
TA Target Price3.7 (2011-03-18)
CIMB Target Price3.4 (2011-03-30)
RHB Target Price3.5 (2011-03-30)
AMMB Target Price3.4 (2011-04-27)
OSK Target Price3.17 (2011-05-16)
UOB Target Price2.44 (2011-06-07)
MIDF Target Price3.16 (2011-06-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity17.78%
Dividend Yield0.18%
Profit Margin18.47%
Tax Rate19.13%
Asset Turnover0.565
Net Asset Value Per Share0.6
Net Tangible Asset per share0.59
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share4.73
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio1.649
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6224
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1543
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.8378
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4555
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale33.8%
Days to sell the inventory6
Days to collect the receivables89
Days to pay the payables149

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than corresponding quarter mainly due to higher progress achieved for contracts in hand on the back of bigger order book and better management of relevant costs as well as contribution from drilling services

- Higher pbt than preceding quarter mainly due to better management of relevant costs (but lower diluted eps due to more share going to increase)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0252*4*1.1 = 0.1109, estimate PE on current price 2.79 = 25.11(DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0314+0.0276)*2*1.1 = 0.1298, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.46/19.53 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0563*2*1.1 = 0.1239, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.85/17.39 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0249*4*1.1 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.39/14.92 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.19/18.26 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.02*4 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.94/15.69 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0339*4 = 0.1356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.47/9.92 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1307, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/16.03 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0324*4 = 0.1296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.32/12.77 (DPS 0.005)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0301*4 = 0.1204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/9.34 (DPS 0.005)

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Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-06-2420113N/AN/A-4.35%12.29%377828106728169773199856564241593880.02520.074223812601084677186312965833811995595267676771789501783275893507683002236424214771862396222011-04-3018.47%19.13%0.565-0.60.594.730.361.6491.62241.15430.83780.455533.8%689149
2011-03-17201122.922.54-5.87%11.95%35249468945361989130083506071029640.02760.056217848469230461863861800353067448368198738188186953011034372916231833285183111046565432011-01-3117.59%18.36%0.6992-0.470.455.640.170.91740.88230.43721.07340.5172-4.8%993171
2010-12-13201112.962.16-6.47%6.47%336959336959680946809452357523570.03140.03141612290803225186380906531068841274487891194686102056141651805211666752166675236501862010-10-3120.21%23.11%0.7106-0.480.464.760.140.71460.67930.30620.99510.4982-18.3%1085171
2010-09-29201042.241.640.00505.49%17.97%278184108969851235171340414771357760.02490.10621375096619711189575538557476294977223190229521237501143112152101665306127796327644072010-07-3118.42%18.86%0.792515.62440.590.562.960.131.44761.3980.40420.82250.450722.6%11180146
2010-06-28201031.71.4-4.39%13.29%2803738115143653212010631177943000.01910.08221208871499237-130070963499292157437201491229521581451433463728671630501114685923968362010-04-3013.03%14.66%0.8848-0.620.592.490.251.57041.50090.94390.70220.41322.6%1278100
2010-03-25201021.681.26-4.86%9.72%250138531141424718654433039660930.01990.03991334953654991-130067996216700570253223543229521967523202955498161657596165560026355772010-01-3116.98%22.21%0.8086-0.410.394.080.351.78911.72481.18450.96140.490635.7%1389152
2009-12-21201012.511.35-6.67%6.67%281003281003418454184530826308260.03390.03391104271642035-130046223610160556764775832295214484112242435194590909990907720454722009-10-3114.89%26.56%0.9992-0.510.474.790.421.36231.30270.80571.38510.581415.6%1178126
2009-09-30200942.52.10.00507.05%27.56%258091114084338913152805302501182020.03340.1307944941516024-42891713128688155856822664055687288122952190516390470519189452009-07-3115.08%22.26%1.207316.22620.470.434.930.281.62091.53650.75751.20310.546118.2%1183103
2009-06-22200932.251.66-6.96%22.14%2901708827523505411389227640879520.03050.0972873139475915-397224530157375049042226640207352830725494790475390475315742702009-04-3012.08%21.15%1.3634-0.440.44.350.321.19441.19290.73511.19810.54516.4%-5587
2009-03-24200921.941.13-7.29%16.13%274090592582349497883827250603120.03010.0665857795483851-373944433386814713510226640248091129921534190668390668310880192009-01-3112.75%22.03%1.397-0.410.373.240.271.1331.1310.60381.29390.56414.5%-65103
2008-12-15200911.510.97-9.60%9.60%318492318492438894388933062330620.03650.0365870952526630-3443221528827913574226640126251319921344190668390668311968212008-10-3113.78%24.67%1.4647-0.380.343.880.281.14321.14160.57071.52950.60475.0%-73111
2008-09-23200841.611.050.00507.51%27.34%30765014521623121212112523389851100.02580.0945870632559372-31126017851211536936611126886631439975422664090668390104413146902008-07-3110.15%25.14%1.667915.35090.350.314.680.291.11771.1160.54441.79710.64253.9%-68106
2008-06-25200831.971.22-7.67%21.49%2981211144512299648991322024617210.02430.06868015195142912428722813032410268146865101886276437450817639490668389976216501632008-04-3010.05%26.55%1.8243-0.320.267.00.261.15261.15060.53071.79070.64164.6%-6893
2008-03-24200822.161.47-8.17%14.97%351408846391326055994921676396970.02430.0445795805530585402652201299379719851986101886327398472518661189184289167114001912008-01-319.28%33.52%1.751-0.30.246.540.271.07591.07390.54312.00080.66672.5%-63101
2007-12-18200812.561.2-7.57%7.57%494983494983273442734418021180210.02000.0200684163445996-2381675226741693825712688648098984113672789969789969721052902008-10-315.52%34.10%1.8231-0.260.249.750.211.24481.24480.49561.87260.65197.5%-84115
2007-09-27200742.722.26-8.62%25.99%317722824283280997791818968571600.02110.0681582824362888-2199368851016837946260011053479588510188689923783914526167792007-07-318.84%32.50%1.290842.72060.260.2312.650.181.27251.27250.55341.650.622610.7%-103136
2007-06-2520073N/AN/A-8.91%19.00%229327506561238374981917912381920.01990.0470512925311957-200968378063353590026600142719429710029889825081336719222552007-04-3010.39%24.86%0.8472-0.250.258.560.151.40811.40810.53241.55230.608223.4%-183181
2007-03-2620072N/AN/A-8.28%11.04%205247277234191952598215222202800.01890.0268542401358671-1837304238523638124614600166023585916459280505275532311512242007-01-319.35%20.70%N/A-0.240.245.960.111.27711.27710.28761.95220.6613N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Preference shares (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20113743823520282113521183151809504-550186553277083020935320338632540084433941863
20112743823520762113521078609316641-3107254253193242735917136086142402064755071863
201114537335196211135210463442250643773499125965265457267204145688102877184385211863
201047437335538574113524858912223903773576327311537345264144303347361828433626851895
20103-365165652361-450877399694-792629400227928254885031259761721312453301300
20102-3955657285-20-365317577833-800313682627742541214175651321033843793071300
20101-3955656248-20-362671381911-485282662351142500514300542901456093241261300
20094-3616656222-68-309171253893-12542829325987424847155988224756780276162-
20093-3616658163-67-308854289180--58618012323856586471258147136245018-
20092-3616661775-67-302808243526--81021264323174573477157102346293827-
20091-3616645638-67-281580253339--7102534522276059955470697367341842-
20084-3616628394-68-273233259523-6288172718032279359904253190977383167-
20083-514221455-20-245657231596--856270513171326078189408609034134824
20082-5124718549-20-241486244555--909239039166406363437259110035548640
20081-242391297---183823189036-84-285684147424982827520887360264-
20074-242391236---181390163503-753-211703146075283372740447254274-
20073-7701119-55-160761132423---21779782775496966155793192257-
20072-7701073-55-15248587383---30063583034653089888812214128-

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDepreciation & amortisationAfter tax effect of interest savingsShare of net profit of jointly controlled entity
201133778281334928709060171147022246-24921316533-0
20112352494113822714854759639115443-908736045-1
20111336959157372426783954583323431-651465237-3
20104278184966520715019018111398393116110104875-2
201032803735355224658381943891673501638214633-2
2010225013894321948553163430611867013372464413742-
20101281003111122237782592216211624931017614282--
2009425809186632006723740188013309-9921454184--
200932901707414245587229047818870-944964190--
2009227409076992227022287100912305-1121954072--
200913184921082726366021257147214-1015853418--
200843076507847264020224838972802416551515085--
200832981217956259637208836848519161198432838--
200823514081092931033116519126711-1423672512--
20081494983932345901312464076116-816612548--
200743177229131289639153787306762-1430861931--
20073229327592519675516636256113-111371732--
20072205247397317838213675825384-49861636--

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holdingEPCIC, marine engineering, design engineering & project managementOffshore drilling & provision of marine transportation & support services including hook-up & commissioningDevelopment and production of petroleum resources
2011357229262535536477068-
2011286781262533987096780-
2011150214262529142793121-

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holdingEPCIC, marine engineering, design engineering & project managementOffshore drilling & provision of marine transportation & support services including hook-up & commissioningDevelopment and production of petroleum resources
201131515687416811699954
2011238129453568118252-
20111111416823595416971-


Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables






CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING




1-Year Historical Daily Chart


5-Year Historical Weekly Chart