KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2012 Quarter 3

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD


Company Description

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD provides day-to-day management and administrative services to its subsidiaries, which are principally engaged in the manufacture, importation and sale of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars. The Company's portfolio includes brands, such as Dunhill, Kent, Pall Mall, Benson & Hedges and Perilly’s. Its subsidiaries include Commercial Importers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in investment holding; Commercial Marketers and Distributors Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the marketing and importation of cigarettes, pipe tobaccos and cigars; Rothmans Brands Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged holding trademarks; The Leaf Tobacco Development Corporation of Malaya Sdn. Bhd., which is engaged in the development and purchase of tobacco leaf; Tobacco Blenders and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which provides warehousing space, and Tobacco Importers and Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd., which manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco related products.

Company Info 

Listing Date	1961-10-27
Market Capital (Capital Size)	17,057,562,200 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Tobacco
Website	http://www.batmalaysia.com

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(59.74-2.6)/2.8613 = 19.97 (Moderate)
Target Price	58.94+2.6 = 61.54 (PE 20.6, EPS 2.8613, DPS 2.6)
Decision	Not interested unless Bolinger lower form an uptrend line or wait rebound at lower price
Comment	Revenue increased 8.6% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps decreased 15.9% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 91.6% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross margin in downtrend from 38% to 33%, low liquidity ratio indicate effectively operating but low cash may decrease the dividend, high gearing ratio indicate Group effectively operating, all accounting turnover period is good which can generate free cash flow for dividend, high inventory and higher revenue can indicate products demand still strong
First Support Price	56.48
Second Support Price	49.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Affin Target Price	56 (2012-10-22)
Alliance Target Price	49.6 (2012-10-24)
AMMB Target Price	56.6 (2012-10-24)
CIMB Target Price	64.7 (2012-10-24)
HwangDBS Target Price	60 (2012-10-24)
Kenanga Target Price	66.3 (2012-10-24)
Maybank Target Price	54 (2012-10-24)
MIDF Target Price	56.52 (2012-10-24)
OSK Target Price	56.22 (2012-10-24)
RHB Target Price	63.9 (2012-10-24)
TA Target Price	59.04 (2012-10-24)
HLG Target Price	52.42 (2012-11-09)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	176.04%
Dividend Yield	4.35%
Gross Profit Margin	33.70%
Operating Profit Margin	22.14%
Net Profit Margin	21.55%
Tax Rate	25.72%
Asset Turnover	2.968
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.66
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.22
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	295.45
Cash Per Share	0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9089
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.3948
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.04
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.0321
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6702
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-1.4%
Days to sell the inventory	44
Days to collect the receivables	19
Days to pay the payables	35

Technical Analysis 

SMA 10	59.4 (Downtrend)
SMA 20	61.469 (Downtrend 9 days)
SMA 50	61.381 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	59.833 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	55.68 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.903298 ( 0.07086 )
Signal (9)	-0.44883 ( 0.113617 )
MACD Histogram	0.454468 (Bearish trend 10 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	66.668
Bolinger Lower Band	56.27

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher contract manufacturing volume and the change from toll to full contract manufacturing

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 due to higher contract manufacturing and lower operating expenses. Permanent operating expense reductions of RM39mn are generated by the movement of distribution costs above gross revenue, absence of merchandising depreciation, and net impact of non-recurring items i.e. cost to migrate distribution model, charges relating to accounts-related matters and reforestation impairment. RM20mn improvement in the year on year operating expenses is attributed to semi variable items, management incentives, performance based sales and distribution incentives but offset by higher IT costs. Balance of RM8mn improvement is caused by timing of marketing expenditures

- Lower pbt than FY12Q2 mainly due to higher operating expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 0.6503*4*1.1 = 2.8613, estimate PE on current price 59.74 = 19.97(DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 473510*1.8/285530 = 2.985, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.9/18.29 (DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.7636, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/17.42 (DPS 2.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 438386*1.8/285530 = 2.5705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/19.02 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)


Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	c_asset	liab	c_liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-10-23	2012	3	N/A	N/A	0.65	43.01%	139.21%	1160055	3270804	249980	808263	185673	601031	0.6503	2.1050	1434678	588971	961512	647987	-	473166	425915	20330	686331	306647	405585	280746	25901	285530	285530	18559450	2012-09-30	33.70%	22.14%	21.55%	25.72%	2.968	-	1.66	0.22	295.45	0.09	0.9089	0.3948	0.04	2.0321	0.6702	-1.4%	44	19	35
2012-07-19	2012	2	65.0	57.2	0.65	51.15%	96.21%	1067987	2110749	296720	558283	220848	415358	0.7735	1.4547	1661516	816245	1188006	880603	-	473510	363181	7588	387769	306647	355593	32176	274471	285530	285530	16195261	2012-06-30	34.51%	28.42%	27.78%	25.57%	2.5293	-	1.66	0.22	257.82	0.96	0.9269	0.5436	0.3117	2.5089	0.715	-1.5%	46	18	50
2012-04-23	2012	1	57.88	51.0	0.65	45.05%	45.05%	1042762	1042762	261562	261562	194509	194509	0.6812	0.6812	1548105	697705	1109719	803630	-	438386	187041	932	202173	306647	186109	16064	290583	285530	285530	15846915	2012-03-31	35.22%	25.74%	25.08%	25.64%	2.6987	-	1.54	0.09	616.67	1.02	0.8682	0.5801	0.3616	2.5314	0.7168	-2.5%	32	15	44
2012-02-16	2011	4	56.84	51.64	0.66	36.83%	146.73%	987265	4127245	228832	956268	180648	719615	0.6327	2.5203	1567463	706531	1135728	831278	-	431735	807991	51174	806793	356623	756817	49976	306647	285530	285530	14933219	2011-12-31	38.13%	23.88%	23.18%	21.06%	2.6331	20.7517	1.51	0.07	747.14	1.07	0.8499	0.6178	0.3689	2.6306	0.7246	-3.0%	27	18	50
2011-10-20	2011	3	52.5	43.7	0.6	35.94%	109.90%	1104525	3139980	239310	727436	176269	538967	0.6173	1.8876	1542493	725374	1118558	821703	-	423935	597624	3315	632385	356623	594309	38076	318547	285530	285530	12449108	2011-09-30	35.07%	22.29%	21.67%	26.34%	2.6575	-	1.48	0.04	1090.0	1.12	0.8828	0.6421	0.3877	2.6385	0.7252	-2.3%	27	18	48
2011-07-21	2011	2	46.98	42.7	0.9	37.55%	73.96%	1043306	2035455	247798	488125	184140	362697	0.6449	1.2703	1644147	822517	1140771	445372	-	503376	415456	4649	362990	356623	420105	57115	413738	285530	285530	13191486	2011-06-30	35.68%	24.41%	23.75%	25.69%	2.4257	-	1.76	0.32	144.37	1.45	1.8468	1.3451	0.929	2.2662	0.6938	9.5%	32	17	49
2011-04-21	2011	1	48.5	45.42	0.6	36.41%	36.41%	992149	992149	240327	240327	178557	178557	0.6254	0.6254	1571014	742220	1079721	384684	-	491293	168716	1061	191669	356623	169777	21892	334731	285530	285530	13556964	2011-03-31	35.89%	24.90%	24.22%	25.70%	2.5072	-	1.72	0.28	169.57	1.17	1.9294	1.3528	0.8701	2.1977	0.6873	9.1%	33	17	44
2011-02-22	2010	4	49.44	44.82	0.63	41.60%	166.43%	959163	3965448	228426	959181	182721	731111	0.6399	2.5605	1569146	730572	1078720	382798	-	490426	875924	21741	709728	168686	897665	187937	356623	285530	285530	13225749	2010-12-31	36.51%	24.54%	23.82%	20.01%	2.5271	18.0899	1.72	0.28	165.43	1.25	1.9085	1.4028	0.9316	2.1996	0.6875	8.8%	29	17	47
2010-10-20	2010	3	48.66	44.0	0.64	38.85%	124.84%	993591	3006285	222578	730754	170654	548389	0.5977	1.9206	1558973	733674	1072103	365403	-	486870	694335	764	525096	168686	693571	168475	337161	285530	285530	13705440	2010-09-30	36.49%	23.10%	22.40%	23.33%	2.5833	-	1.71	0.26	184.62	1.18	2.0078	1.4599	0.9227	2.202	0.6877	9.1%	29	16	42
2010-07-22	2010	2	49.94	43.22	1.13	42.31%	85.99%	993874	2012694	250048	508176	185840	377735	0.6509	1.3229	1756556	894501	1119036	415173	-	637520	513498	8368	188772	168686	521866	333094	501780	285530	285530	12557609	2010-06-30	38.38%	25.85%	25.16%	25.68%	2.2503	-	2.23	0.79	55.67	1.76	2.1545	1.6301	1.2086	1.7553	0.6371	12.1%	33	16	44
2010-04-22	2010	1	45.0	42.02	-	43.68%	43.68%	1018820	1018820	258127	258127	191894	191894	0.6721	0.6721	1698880	818744	1070873	367545	-	628007	272829	3635	11743	168686	276464	264721	433407	285530	285530	12214973	2010-03-31	38.74%	26.00%	25.34%	25.66%	2.3172	-	2.2	0.76	56.29	1.52	2.2276	1.6547	1.1792	1.7052	0.6303	11.5%	32	16	43
2010-02-11	2009	4	45.7	41.42	0.62	42.53%	183.72%	1020950	3923421	227896	1005312	172865	746784	0.6054	2.6154	1442130	551944	1002845	300050	-	439285	924240	73635	741306	59387	850605	109299	168686	285530	285530	12020813	2009-12-31	38.20%	23.05%	22.32%	24.15%	2.7206	16.0968	1.54	0.1	421.0	0.59	1.8395	1.1254	0.5622	2.2829	0.6954	6.4%	33	15	34
2009-11-19	2009	3	46.1	41.5	0.61	41.02%	141.19%	919197	2902471	234502	777416	166734	573919	0.5839	2.0100	1602736	721144	1161635	463341	-	441101	689207	18384	413049	59387	670823	257774	317161	285530	285530	12871692	2009-09-30	40.55%	26.29%	25.51%	28.90%	2.4364	-	1.54	0.1	450.8	1.11	1.5564	1.0529	0.6845	2.6335	0.7248	6.6%	36	16	38
2009-07-23	2009	2	49.12	44.0	1.13	49.51%	100.17%	977648	1983274	270131	542914	201244	407185	0.7048	1.4261	1545738	686004	948722	499228	-	597016	520139	16604	330990	59387	536743	205753	265140	285530	285530	12777467	2009-06-30	38.56%	28.30%	27.63%	25.50%	2.6417	-	2.09	0.65	68.85	0.93	1.3741	0.9025	0.5311	1.5891	0.6138	4.6%	35	15	34
2009-04-23	2009	1	45.75	41.0	-	50.66%	50.66%	1005626	1005626	272783	272783	205941	205941	0.7213	0.7213	1706490	831014	1093745	644663	-	612745	233848	18554	8078	59387	252402	244324	303711	285530	285530	12848850	2009-03-31	40.24%	27.79%	27.13%	24.50%	2.414	-	2.15	0.7	64.29	1.06	1.2891	0.8418	0.4711	1.785	0.6409	4.5%	43	19	43
2009-02-19	2008	4	47.0	43.75	0.76	49.98%	234.65%	1002447	4135220	215796	1081166	172874	811683	0.6054	2.8427	1487312	596405	1080833	632249	-	406479	954750	86954	879075	70666	867796	11279	59387	285530	285530	12563320	2008-12-31	39.55%	22.27%	21.53%	19.89%	2.7803	15.4781	1.42	-0.02	-2200.0	0.21	0.9433	0.5875	0.0939	2.659	0.7267	-0.9%	33	23	42
2008-10-23	2008	3	46.0	40.5	0.76	67.13%	184.67%	1097716	3132773	315625	865370	232217	638809	0.8133	2.2373	1540030	667783	1089160	474319	-	450870	792725	49901	656139	70666	742824	86685	157351	285530	285530	11778112	2008-09-30	41.48%	29.37%	28.75%	26.43%	2.65	-	1.58	0.14	294.64	0.55	1.4079	0.8662	0.3317	2.4157	0.7072	4.7%	39	18	40
2008-07-17	2008	2	42.5	38.75	1.13	56.43%	117.54%	1013647	2035057	264603	549745	195188	406592	0.6836	1.4240	1667235	788854	1125963	511166	-	541272	532188	15091	325279	70666	517097	191818	262484	285530	285530	11778112	2008-06-30	40.20%	26.79%	26.10%	26.23%	2.3942	-	1.9	0.45	91.67	0.92	1.5432	1.0328	0.5135	2.0802	0.6753	7.0%	40	20	45
2008-04-22	2008	1	45.25	40.75	-	61.11%	61.11%	1021410	1021410	285142	285142	211404	211404	0.7404	0.7404	1613397	730621	1056051	341682	-	557346	288739	2465	108077	70666	286274	178197	248863	285530	285530	12420555	2008-03-31	40.18%	28.60%	27.92%	25.86%	2.4266	-	1.95	0.51	85.29	0.87	2.1383	1.45	0.7283	1.8948	0.6546	9.9%	37	19	38
2008-02-21	2007	4	44.0	41.0	0.74	27.50%	132.64%	948236	3830869	208127	1002901	151746	731931	0.5315	2.5634	1447008	548536	1101096	387529	-	345912	837331	17987	935967	187289	819344	116623	70666	285530	285530	12063642	2007-12-31	39.39%	23.07%	21.95%	27.09%	2.6474	16.4819	1.21	-0.23	-183.7	0.25	1.4155	0.7859	0.1824	3.1832	0.7609	4.2%	39	18	37
2007-10-24	2007	3	44.75	39.25	1.0	37.12%	105.14%	1008411	2882633	280607	794774	204843	580185	0.7174	2.0320	1864335	956660	1461766	750442	-	402569	640148	4842	353164	187289	644990	291826	479115	285530	285530	11349817	2007-09-30	40.42%	29.05%	27.83%	27.00%	1.9738	-	1.41	-0.03	-1325.0	1.68	1.2748	0.9365	0.6384	3.6311	0.7841	5.6%	43	17	34
2007-07-19	2007	2	N/A	N/A	1.5	32.34%	68.02%	937036	1874222	244487	514167	178476	375342	0.6251	1.3145	1614303	686178	1103952	790477	-	510351	422531	23789	440510	187289	446320	5810	193099	285530	285530	11563965	2007-06-30	42.07%	27.35%	26.09%	27.00%	1.6548	-	1.79	0.35	115.71	0.68	0.8681	0.5277	0.2443	2.1631	0.6839	-3.9%	63	27	53
2007-04-24	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	35.68%	35.68%	937186	937186	269680	269680	196866	196866	0.6895	0.6895	1845296	912299	1096576	785106	-	748720	209605	9216	N/A	187289	218821	218821	406110	285530	285530	13134380	2007-03-31	41.91%	30.03%	28.78%	27.00%	0.9399	-	2.62	1.18	38.98	1.42	1.162	0.8214	0.5173	1.4646	0.5943	7.3%	96	39	84
2007-02-15	2006	4	N/A	N/A	2.0	N/A	N/A	797145	3612482	170403	1001947	122630	719678	0.4295	2.5205	1620211	669175	1068387	757697	-	551824	835886	49279	833376	234058	786607	46769	187289	285530	285530	12349172	2006-12-31	41.10%	22.88%	21.38%	28.04%	0.492	17.1593	1.93	0.49	88.27	0.66	0.8832	0.5341	0.2472	1.9361	0.6594	-11.1%	206	75	170

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Computer software (A-0)	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)	Investment properties (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Derivative financial assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Other receivables (A-1)	Deferred income (L-0)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Post-employment benefit obligations (L-0)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Deferred income (L-1)	Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)
2012	3	3960	20102	411618	138	409889	25901	-	-	2567	333158	227345	9628	48483	250000	5414	81796	3304	3706	300000	259181
2012	2	3979	20102	411618	138	409434	274471	-	-	292	337537	203945	6635	45747	250000	5021	110952	2095	-	400000	367556
2012	1	4548	20102	411618	138	413994	290583	-	-	467	231486	175169	7159	44121	250000	4809	81741	2095	-	400000	319794
2011	4	4742	20102	411618	138	424332	306647	-	-	-	192959	206925	7683	42256	250000	4511	67566	2095	322	400000	361295
2011	3	2394	5529	411618	1636	395942	318547	888	-	1796	197759	206384	-	41764	250000	5091	74304	-	-	400000	347399
2011	2	2667	15158	411618	1636	390551	413738	888	-	109	223447	184335	-	40630	650000	4769	106393	-	-	-	338979
2011	1	3354	15158	411618	1631	397033	334731	888	-	1093	221816	183692	-	40876	650000	4161	83647	-	-	-	301037
2010	4	4336	15158	411618	1636	405826	356623	888	-	-	193572	179489	-	41805	650000	4117	66758	-	1832	-	314208
2010	3	3222	19701	411618	1654	389104	337161	21386	-	-	200228	174899	-	49729	650000	6971	75806	-	1622	-	287975
2010	2	3718	20139	411618	1654	424926	501779	887	-	-	217714	174121	-	47201	650000	6662	123212	-	3375	-	288586
2010	1	5501	20362	411618	1654	441001	433407	2837	-	-	210583	171917	-	46976	650000	6352	87677	-	4269	-	275599
2009	4	6550	19295	411618	1654	451069	168686	4288	-	-	214258	164712	-	46752	650000	6043	80962	-	-	-	219088
2009	3	8932	4978	411618	-	456064	317161	1950	-	-	233279	168754	-	42630	650000	5664	66092	-	-	150000	247249
2009	2	11259	4978	411618	-	431879	265140	1950	19982	-	235459	163473	-	44056	400000	5438	122722	-	-	150000	226506
2009	1	13203	4978	411618	-	445677	303711	-	19982	-	288341	218980	-	44041	400000	5041	103453	-	-	250000	291210
2008	4	15232	4978	411618	-	459079	59387	20638	33604	-	224958	257818	-	43287	400000	5297	96512	-	-	250000	285737
2008	3	16976	4978	411618	-	438675	157351	21190	26754	-	256922	205566	-	59048	550000	5793	107253	-	-	100000	267066
2008	2	18505	4978	411618	-	443280	262484	20638	26754	-	260915	218063	-	59274	550000	5523	116514	-	-	100000	294652
2008	1	20163	4978	411618	-	446017	248863	20638	26754	-	235198	199168	-	59117	650000	5252	96624	-	-	-	245058
2007	4	21091	4978	411618	-	460785	70666	20638	26754	-	243988	186490	-	58585	650000	4982	56493	-	-	100000	231036
2007	3	10873	2957	411618	-	482227	479115	22055	27715	-	253874	173901	-	55960	650000	5364	101173	-	-	450000	199269
2007	2	14232	2957	411618	19851	479467	193099	1962	27715	-	269038	194364	-	58382	250000	5093	116213	-	-	450000	224264
2007	1	14226	4020	411618	19957	483176	406110	25479	27715	-	267392	185603	-	56647	250000	4823	101873	-	-	450000	233233
2006	4	14100	4020	411618	20010	501288	187289	25579	27715	-	264507	164085	-	56138	250000	4552	88819	-	-	450000	218878

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses
2012	3	1160055	64307	769169	6819	1305	135392
2012	2	1067987	75872	699397	6831	7415	72454
2012	1	1042762	67053	675466	6831	2617	101520
2011	4	987265	48184	610821	6906	5716	146422
2011	3	1104525	63041	717145	6907	2634	143797
2011	2	1043306	63658	671101	6831	2778	120354
2011	1	992149	61770	636037	6756	3115	112144
2010	4	959163	45705	609001	6906	20113	134943
2010	3	993591	51924	631013	6907	2822	135915
2010	2	993874	64208	612461	6831	3589	128123
2010	1	1018820	66233	624168	6756	1596	131365
2009	4	1020950	55031	630898	7479	1545	156222
2009	3	919197	67768	546471	7181	1764	132807
2009	2	977648	68887	600675	6524	1416	101734
2009	1	1005626	66842	600990	6639	1014	126228
2008	4	1002447	42922	605933	7432	3841	177127
2008	3	1097716	83408	642362	6728	3954	136955
2008	2	1013647	69415	606168	6994	1839	137721
2008	1	1021410	73738	611009	6977	3281	121563
2007	4	948236	56381	574748	10656	2886	157591
2007	3	1008411	75764	600761	12320	1391	116114
2007	2	937036	66011	542841	11818	3451	141341
2007	1	937186	72814	544431	11721	3038	114392
2006	4	797145	47773	469496	12013	1131	146364

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	17,634,332,800 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(61.76-2.6)/2.985 = 19.82 (Moderate)
Target Price	59.70+2.6 = 62.30 (PE 20.0, EPS 2.985, DPS 2.6)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price go through some correction and still sustain long term uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 2.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.4%, eps increased 13.5% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 10.5% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross margin in decreasing trend, still effectively operate in a low liquidity ratio environment, gearing ratio still show weaker financial leverage compared to recent year, all collection/repayment period was good, higher inventory and higher revenue can indicate products demand still strong, cash decreasing
First Support Price	59.0
Second Support Price	55.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	47.45 (2012-02-17)
RHB Target Price	55.2 (2012-04-24)
Alliance Target Price	49.6 (2012-07-20)
AMMB Target Price	49.1 (2012-07-20)
CIMB Target Price	58.5 (2012-07-20)
HLG Target Price	53.1 (2012-07-20)
HwangDBS Target Price	57.4 (2012-07-20)
Kenanga Target Price	58.7 (2012-07-20)
Maybank Target Price	55 (2012-07-20)
OSK Target Price	54.22 (2012-07-20)
TA Target Price	55.61 (2012-07-20)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	168.98%
Dividend Yield	4.21%
Gross Profit Margin	34.51%
Operating Profit Margin	28.42%
Net Profit Margin	27.78%
Tax Rate	25.57%
Asset Turnover	2.5293
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.66
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.22
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	257.82
Cash Per Share	0.96
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9269
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.5436
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3117
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.5089
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.715
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-1.5%
Days to sell the inventory	46
Days to collect the receivables	18
Days to pay the payables	50

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	59.148 (Uptrend 47 days)
SMA 50	56.58 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	54.882 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	50.764 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	1.357581 ( 0.047508 )
Signal (9)	1.257092 ( 0.025122 )
MACD Histogram	0.100489 (Bullish trend 16 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	63.938
Bolinger Lower Band	54.358

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to higher domestic volume and higher contract manufacturing revenue(due to higher volume and higher margin following the change from toll to full contract manufacturing model)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 473510*1.8/285530 = 2.985, estimate PE on current price 52.02 = 19.51(DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.7636, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/17.42 (DPS 2.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 438386*1.8/285530 = 2.5705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/19.02 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2012 Quarter 1

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (M) BERHAD

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenue grew by 5.1% compared to same period last year in line with higher domestic volume as well as higher sub-contract manufacturing revenue. Gross profit however only increased by 3.1% mainly due to reversal of 14s machine impairment in Q1’ 2011 (RM11.6 million) and higher variable costs in 2012 coupled with higher distributor margin quantum this quarter following the change in the Group’s distribution model in Q3’ 2011. With the change from Company-owned to exclusive third party distributorship, the Group incurs a higher distributor margin to third party (hence lower gross profit) but this is mostly offset in lower own distribution costs

- Profit before tax increased by 8.8% than FY11Q1, higher than the increase in gross profit, mainly due to lower spend in marketing and distribution costs as explained above, as well as timing of brand related activities

- While the Group’s volume grew by 6.9% as compared to the previous quarter, profit before tax increased by 14.3% mainly due to absence of the one-off impact on merchandising assets from change in accounting policy in Q4’ 2011 (RM15 million), as well as lower marketing expenses due to timing of brand activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.7636, estimate PE on current price 55.4 = 19.02(DPS 2.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 438386*1.8/285530 = 2.5705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/19.02 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	14,853,270,600 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(52.02-2.76)/2.5705 = 19.16 (High)
Target Price	46.27+2.76 = 49.03 (PE 18.0, EPS 2.5705, DPS 2.76)
Decision	Not interested unless MACD start move back to bullish trend
Comment	Revenue decreased 10.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.9%, eps increased 2.5% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but spent 14% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, debt ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate decline in consumption
First Support Price	51.5
Second Support Price	48.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Kenanga Target Price	42.2 (2011-07-22)
TA Target Price	48.3 (2011-07-22)
RHB Target Price	42.4 (2011-10-19)
AMMB Target Price	45.9 (2011-10-21)
CIMB Target Price	44.9 (2011-10-21)
ECM Target Price	43.8 (2011-10-21)
HwangDBS Target Price	46.6 (2012-02-17)
Maybank Target Price	50.4 (2012-02-17)
MIDF Target Price	47.45 (2012-02-17)
OSK Target Price	52.47 (2012-02-17)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	166.68%
Dividend Yield	5.31%
Profit Margin	23.18%
Tax Rate	21.06%
Asset Turnover	2.6331
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.07
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	747.14
Cash Per Share	1.07
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.8499
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.6178
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3689
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.6306
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7246
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-3.0%
Days to sell the inventory	22
Days to collect the receivables	18
Days to pay the payables	42

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	51.876 (Uptrend 23 days)
SMA 50	50.081 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	46.913 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	44.436 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.682851 ( 0.055786 )
Signal (9)	0.769156 ( 0.021576 )
MACD Histogram	0.086305 (Bearish trend 2 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 due to Dunhill performed extremely well and sub-contract manufacturing cigarette volume increased but pbt was broadly flat due to impact of lower margins as a result of the ban on pack sizes below 20 in June 2010 and the effect of the operating factors. Pat declined due to the higher tax effective rate in 2011 (25%) as compared with 2010 (24%) which included a 2009 tax credit realised in 2010

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 due to lower volumes as a result of trade speculation by retailers and distributors at the end of Quarter 3, 2011 anticipating an excise increase to be announced during the 2012 Government Budget exercise but pat improved due to deferred tax assets from temporary timing difference of the tax base of assets and its carrying value in the financial statements

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.5705, estimate PE on current price 52.02 = 19.51(DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	13,162,933,000 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(46.1-2.73)/2.6506 = 16.36 (Moderate)
Target Price	45.06+2.73 = 47.79 (PE 17.0, EPS 2.6506, DPS 2.73)
Decision	BUY if for dividend keep
Comment	Revenue increased 5.9% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 11.2%, eps decreased 4.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.3%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 10.7% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from low to weak level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate slow down of sales
First Support Price	45.0
Second Support Price	43.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	44.84 (2011-04-22)
Kenanga Target Price	42.2 (2011-07-22)
TA Target Price	48.3 (2011-07-22)
OSK Target Price	43.41 (2011-09-15)
RHB Target Price	42.4 (2011-10-19)
AMMB Target Price	45.9 (2011-10-21)
CIMB Target Price	44.9 (2011-10-21)
ECM Target Price	43.8 (2011-10-21)
Maybank Target Price	45.1 (2011-10-21)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	164.39%
Dividend Yield	5.92%
Profit Margin	21.67%
Tax Rate	26.34%
Asset Turnover	2.6575
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.48
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1090.0
Cash Per Share	1.12
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.8828
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.6421
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3877
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.6385
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7252
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-2.3%
Days to sell the inventory	23
Days to collect the receivables	18
Days to pay the payables	40

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pat than FY11Q2 due to increase in operating expenses from one off costs for change in distribution model and higher effective tax rate

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate PE on current price 46.1 = 16.36(DPS 2.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	13,277,145,000 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(46.5-2.7)/2.5406 = 17.24 (High)
Target Price	43.19+2.7 = 45.89 (PE 17.0, EPS 2.5406, DPS 2.7)
Decision	Not interested unless price below 45
Comment	Revenue increased 5.2% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5%, eps increased 3.1% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.9%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	45.66
Second Support Price	44.4
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	45.9 (2011-02-23)
ECM Target Price	43.8 (2011-02-23)
Maybank Target Price	42.5 (2011-02-23)
Kenanga Target Price	42.2 (2011-04-22)
MIDF Target Price	44.84 (2011-04-22)
RHB Target Price	43.15 (2011-04-22)
CIMB Target Price	42 (2011-07-22)
OSK Target Price	43.41 (2011-07-22)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	144.36%
Dividend Yield	5.96%
Profit Margin	23.75%
Tax Rate	25.69%
Asset Turnover	2.4257
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.76
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.32
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	144.37
Cash Per Share	1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8468
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3451
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.929
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.2662
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.6938
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	9.5%
Days to sell the inventory	27
Days to collect the receivables	17
Days to pay the payables	41

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q2 due to the ban of packs less than 20 sticks in June last year, down trading pressure from excise led price increase in October 2010, and from certain sub-value for money brands selling below the mandatory minimum price

- Stronger enforcement efforts by the authorities and heightened public awareness have helped reduce the illegal sale of cigarettes below minimum price

- Lower pbt than FY10Q2 due to lower volumes and loss of 14’s pack size margin, partially offset by higher net pricing and productivity savings

- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 due to the strong performance of Dunhill through its new product launches, Dunhill Boost and Switch and enforcement efforts by the authorities in penalising errant traders selling below minimum price

- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 due to higher volumes, partially offset by increased operating expenses from timing of overhead spend

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate PE on current price 46.5 = 17.24(DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

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