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Showing posts with label MPHB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MPHB. Show all posts

Saturday, October 13, 2012

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2012 Quarter 2

MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BERHAD


Company Description
MULTI-PURPOSE HOLDINGS BERHAD is engaged in the core businesses of financial services, stock broking and gaming. The principal activities consist of investment holding and trading, operation of general insurance business, provision of leasing, hire purchase, factoring and general loan financing services, operation and management of a licensed four digit numbers forecast betting game, operation of hotels and of a golf club, securities broking and dealing, designing and construction of railway and related activities, property development, provision of share registration and management services, printing activities, and provision of computer software and other related services. In March 2008, it incorporated a wholly owned offshore subsidiary, Multi Purpose International Limited. In June 2008, the Company acquired Caribbean Gateway Sdn Bhd.

Company Info 
Listing Date1981-01-11
Market Capital (Capital Size)5,247,782,587 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryGaming
Sub IndustryDiversified Business
Websitehttp://www.mphb.com.my

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(3.65-0.1)/0.2747 = 12.92 (Moderate)
Target Price3.71+0.1 = 3.81 (PE 13.5, EPS 0.2747, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 3.6 or wait rebound signal at price below 3.4
Comment
Revenue decreased 4.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.8%, eps increased 60.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 49.2%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 42.7% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross margin still not yet recover to above 20% but got slightly improved, current liquidity ratio indicate Group financial strength is very strong, lower gearing ratio which indicate Group cannot operating in high leverage to bring more income, all accounting of turnover and repayment period is good, Gaming division recorded significant lower profit
First Support Price3.5
Second Support Price3.25
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Jupiter Target Price3.5 (2012-06-06)
Alliance Target Price4.53 (2012-08-30)
RHB Target Price4.05 (2012-08-30)
AMMB Target Price4 (2012-10-10)
HwangDBS Target Price4.8 (2012-10-10)
Kenanga Target Price4.31 (2012-10-10)
Maybank Target Price3.77 (2012-10-10)
Public Target Price4.28 (2012-10-10)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity17.74%
Dividend Yield2.74%
Gross Profit Margin19.75%
Operating Profit Margin17.25%
Net Profit Margin14.85%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.5778
Net Asset Value Per Share2.36
Net Tangible Asset per share0.35
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share10.89
Cash Per Share0.47
Liquidity Current Ratio4.0679
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.7808
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.4914
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7958
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4406
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale39.6%
Days to sell the inventory77
Days to collect the receivables36
Days to pay the payables56

Technical Analysis 
SMA 103.587 (Uptrend)
SMA 203.578 (Uptrend 4 days)
SMA 503.627 (Uptrend)
SMA 1003.493 (Uptrend)
SMA 2003.103 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.00198 ( 0.005498 )
Signal (9)-0.01427 ( 0.003073 )
MACD Histogram0.012290 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band3.733
Bolinger Lower Band3.423

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher payout ratio in Gaming Division as well as lower brokerage, margin interest income and earning from proprietary trading in the Stockbroking Division. However, this is mitigated by improved performance in Financial Services Division as a result of higher underwriting income, gain on fair value adjustment and sale of shares in an associated company in Corporate and others Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 3409072*0.115/1427321 = 0.2747, estimate PE on current price 3.65 = 8.96(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 3318715*0.115/1427321 = 0.2674, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.17/11.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 3266898*0.12/1271485 = 0.3083, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.28/8.33 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.47/4.89 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

MPHB latest news (English)

MPHB latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-08-2920122N/AN/A-4.12%6.68%87220917849631294812509971346242183480.09430.1530609436426852923489634090722215093269963145010357231888104426405930831427321142732154380932012-06-3019.75%17.25%14.85%-0.5778-2.360.3510.890.474.06792.78081.49140.79580.440639.6%773656
2012-05-25201213.893.110.052.56%2.56%91275491275412151612151683724837240.05870.05876126945280823039259331871586342398525221251035723464904756355600881427321142732145531532012-03-3119.70%15.87%13.31%29.82%0.5736-2.30.2911.00.463.60092.541.37060.85630.458335.6%684561
2012-02-24201143.272.670.058.90%16.48%91391335358632767276757122601374820260.20460.37916600732333383437706326689873039649217121599658094123822545422110351621271485127148535601582011-12-3123.07%33.39%30.28%5.68%0.53747.38582.540.299.660.893.72012.86081.92621.03240.505145.0%674469
2011-11-23201132.962.56-2.16%7.59%822281262195099447398985632412218890.05190.18207277223408476130326731924626630178573624180215809411943452236768046171218969121896931936982011-09-3021.67%16.46%12.09%35.18%0.4848-2.37N/AN/A0.732.50491.91311.07891.41380.561335.2%654397
2011-08-24201122.82.140.052.38%5.40%8655721810948132935300016696941577880.06320.14317228378403849630273631898824354408235875222315809413881471340847150251102638110263830322542011-06-3023.37%19.07%15.36%23.14%0.492-2.62N/AN/A0.742.51711.82071.10121.39880.558731.5%684387
2011-05-25201113.22.51-3.01%3.01%94537694537616708116708188094880940.08250.0825633828432766116033623061673227283648143500580941226635831356640761067321106732133407142011-03-3123.93%20.88%17.67%18.97%0.562-2.3-0.41-7.630.73.00172.15071.23811.33290.51734.1%684576
2011-02-23201043.272.430.053.27%11.52%8944553594662146530545022852103000380.07920.27896307795338371255662829240835564603416333668047329182148271519775809411075633107563328074022010-12-3121.02%19.25%16.38%19.94%0.57229.35682.2-0.49-5.330.623.12922.20791.16141.42930.536433.7%684470
2010-11-23201032.772.12-3.32%8.25%8507032714683138064399998864982148280.08050.1998601841832058725259502812546422808290636226871757909132172946996632101074980107498022789572010-09-3022.47%20.06%16.23%8.38%0.5964-2.13-0.56-3.790.712.42261.76510.99621.4020.532730.4%664496
2010-08-26201022.32.050.052.31%4.93%8713601863980122930261934601371283300.05630.120159442543220365485974272388924518725195912723680541567721340086714071068625106862522868572010-06-3022.78%18.00%14.11%21.93%0.5976-2.09-0.61-3.510.842.52382.01461.25881.4390.541830.6%474389
2010-05-21201012.261.9-2.62%2.62%99262099262013900413900468193681930.06330.06335905343327616645488726291774033738483451937579091854433397145701076718107671821319012010-03-3120.18%16.19%14.00%24.04%0.5901-2.02-0.67-2.960.752.67172.02991.13471.50680.554834.3%605591
2010-02-25200942.481.870.054.79%14.16%87495933234171365864866571142303373870.10860.32075826508322105043936626054586796561906212252514688844890352637847326681052079105207920305122009-12-3122.65%23.96%15.61%16.23%0.57046.01832.06-0.69-2.80.772.70582.10471.25361.4870.552833.0%534988
2009-11-25200931.961.75-2.13%9.37%813244244845864556350071507272231570.04990.21955805712325846847368025472444625331701901415154689402923431508286197681016649101664919316332009-09-3015.71%12.39%7.94%20.11%0.5642-2.04-0.8-2.370.942.7842.02861.41351.57140.561336.8%713593
2009-08-26200922.161.80.045.35%7.24%80401316352141823202855151274061724300.12550.16985829719326701247946625627074474491119021318614689403355472036866726261015399101539921018752009-06-3021.48%28.19%22.68%4.82%0.5526-2.05-0.8-2.591.013.09262.3731.68171.56820.560439.8%633986
2009-05-26200912.11.32-1.89%1.89%83120183120110319510319545024450240.04640.046457769563276616547320250034014939291057577624689405833511609758503797020997020913388882009-03-3122.31%17.82%12.42%27.43%0.549-2.01-0.97-1.421.013.24012.58621.72351.67770.567240.3%544980
2009-02-20200841.491.020.050.75%6.01%827066313724472561262864197721586180.01730.1389564583932632975180252382542522494315915178237440598206579283424689401141937114193711990332008-12-3122.32%15.20%8.77%6.33%0.55577.55931.63-0.9-1.170.723.16712.47721.50471.75020.57837.7%545374
2008-11-19200831.211.0-1.56%5.40%759149231082039057195962410251423000.03580.1241569813929678088654412730331292343583082985440598650641480495886471146994114699412043432008-09-3018.36%9.91%5.14%8.77%0.5429-1.63-0.94-1.120.752.62931.90171.2591.59140.520835.8%724780
2008-08-27200821.460.960.041.97%3.84%753961155102973886154700520361012750.04530.08815762907772733856558499017468525783681823154405981468933292087698061149899114989916213572008-06-3018.69%14.11%9.80%40.81%0.545-3.591.061.330.892.84252.1291.50520.18690.134140.1%714881
2008-05-28200811.821.360.051.87%1.87%797068797068808148081449239492390.04270.042736540439340158397612720028988193721135644059819253306094712071153866115386621000362008-03-3118.20%16.93%10.14%31.45%0.8698-1.630.971.880.662.12181.52760.89540.49670.255630.0%716064
2008-02-29200742.051.560.061.74%14.42%783240320604672723684184469983893500.04070.3375376648711292828078052637205424030442252435792858168182224175704405981153706115370623766342007-12-3122.63%9.97%9.28%4.21%0.85126.10411.590.892.310.671.97921.40650.81720.61730.299828.8%776074
2007-11-16200732.591.88-1.82%12.68%8063652422806105151611461490833423520.04250.29683721064117517384734425458911199202530718472228581683729914742313839371153652115365229764222007-09-3021.08%13.95%13.04%28.23%0.7294-1.470.813.190.561.98841.41080.65710.69190.315836.1%979789
2007-08-21200722.582.14-4.41%10.86%79161416164411606995063101191962932690.10330.2542420246315347951013745266766826184547861662782185816874046111264097080811535481153548N/A2007-06-3012.84%21.77%20.30%16.38%0.4539-1.430.79N/A1.11.8851.48530.96560.9280.365260.9%126127173
2007-05-2120071N/AN/A0.056.45%6.45%8248278248273456113456111740731740730.15090.15094855466189683913863882958627852393987697498085816848400840902812671961153230115323026754932007-03-3125.26%43.45%41.90%14.14%0.2298-1.360.653.571.332.11911.80741.05381.20650.3907145.9%201353402
2007-02-1520064N/AN/A-N/AN/A29115345162783175199750568071649320.04920.142941686861467873130219127008136252722260673019441570193992057011498581681153867115386715231042006-12-3128.35%16.62%28.57%24.23%0.06989.23471.210.741.780.942.56671.6861.04471.04950.3521559.5%1602812752

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Investment securities (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Reinsurance assets (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Investment securities (A-1)Loans to customers (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Insurance contract liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Provision for retirement benefits (L-0)RCULS (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Liabilities directly associated with assets classified as held for sale (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20122379128788651781660565224936111593-363706945411179511220515833943731581319-34614026724-68528415175651154-165632134-1129542457334896
201214010286079467203705107224821151768246843585975766039305844136007934192505489-43810921488429867309316278201104-15668--747445728539259
20114444728604981124027038232011831550102468435705465010365688095510645774083499884-43055437222-65722720518581088-193387246-5230450755137706
2011397530289238510613650635310762531630791496635433376257173757978758137344140484033-416392171658667644768219001666339861436379--58446730043303267
2011296167289230510551364746410809521919891496633964913806815001109756753664835509582-419047173238255622579224015664641084926500--54916657272302736
20111104659289235210760864358820561119258414966354376135025-1173456166945162511532-4367821718811615636228157826764342550124182--9019573968603362
20104111683289296410662164309120557519548914966352148121339-1646035412565189520446-4324252296216885619948171545367943727622349--5773542387556628
20103111237289222910570664530018557418461333833-111743-1539176530725419499331-436444191042329592373185402966844865821022--6302740421525950
20102115585289223110651964266016491718905633833-514337-1237413831775309357761-415128199132897785800191193464346011623757--1722687503485974
2010111473628915511067436396241322219429533833-104234-1117017075195180453912-528793198253444684662194998164447119516696--2536696181454887
2009412053328918631063436407509579419827033833-51699-1038357540305344380978-44323622498-8157219912996594822747254--314635180439366
200931200612891094106078567454-20391936738-119020-996988356745682504541-31575320379-8027119887156744930182843-43876241661940473680
200921268502890884105293562173-21362436593-137548-763758925495971434824-34703520379-805072049186654503764662-64544645600761479466
200911254852890884104372558493-20837639966-122933-624398607715797367475-42996520379-725072098122653514185431-140087138549193547320
200841363322890463104509541074-20511939966-59013-721287621646297370208-45856624468-724522095381653524607315-668228136510603518025
2008384392947615123115612457-18170139864-112129-4063174256752034887219945129624612006-7424322000002682-7255-1182314641548750865441
2008284392916077122388543285-18966639864-213975-1080781499071064806859335932226611996-74582-2540-7656-1182314536553192856558
200819182755914130551651883-26523439864-130735-13953629447870749573618382933900813627-68740-2649-6890-121520269767450822839761
2007413621800439130861642732-27534239864-50831-31472718688900053028118856533479118075-651291028611616-11346-260500156172513583807805
20073-759245132773602289-258283--249914-21471400636956856225538734733728315958-612561067521217-30300-260500173991525199847344
20072-746455132117632161-217115--866971-17573400661832851643833159933304516150-596821450001167-28461-2605003069967168391013745
20071-819543130715612676-208291--1148201-17261385650793444566776360831592015951-61432363974--32017-2655002501699077961386388
20064-547639132781555076-264305--61517-193461024842825790752133252031488216064-536133566121753-13100-3000002971184296131302191

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationAfter tax effect of interest on exercise of warrantsOther expenses
20122872209174069992723189439612094634032241--44868
201219127543623973291424446268671972815531090--42107
2011491391315720703046396212114312393087098551376-93251
201138222813499064407639290748317061121616231750-33263
2011286557230765663274335941721019437324761505--35047
2011194537631689719184317622523818855472981487--35219
201048944552921370645726988305201684632107141573-29496
20103850703115666595263388531919160064000012940-36435
2010287136026953672826364642509616552358406511857--
2010199262033415792278228232205317612373961150---
2009487495922167676797407762922117757189154533809--
2009381324412982685523342741812788668477852683--
20092804013877963134545410735051952946135821265--
2009183120128303645780425801776219536298681372211--
2008482706645946424945206720665382314819510480--
20083759149342561980238515493891470353931209-1108-
2008275396130151613071142417423170638301392326341148-
200817970682541865199945029616197416157184510101198-
20074783240306360595875686045838741226621080-1128-
200738063652968763640698064044517050263811366-1127-
2007279161426319689980140659061419948151841393-1071-
20071824827488716164821422616986519791122667234-1184-
20064291153201502086159954869525442621843475-1253-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentFinancial ServicesCorporate & OthersGamingStockbroking
201221843262550644497586355007
20121136256557107688399266865
20114311862788475888004166239
20113173660289129777442486503
201123574759136514387830177728
20111131458582162298635838296
20104216361653101148165368315
20103258256191180337723256736
20102185655953153517952166696
2010199951474150929191487905
20094393849280408597797587709
2009381948274154037415708816
200922784604870929061873245410692
20091141844414148997679305376
20084175345607270107482827920
2008374244316132326954486895
20082495642276137346949717936
2008178336879173667337459861
2007459375410796657972154113416
20073-3036064657773015616613
2007278337637568573474414331
2007170634606580376658218542
20064531533744930223797515447

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentFinancial ServicesCorporate & OthersGamingStockbroking
2012248073205818803268514427
2012132413227749026990793547
201141822312475192981840704048
20113201741765212670855641985
20112515571451766320999283727
201111739418498330461261007280
20104138791805347408900175004
20103174331772842423891116236
20102165491536333221925583520
20101-792633288934924298
2009419543616857294173457633702
2009371451804938960127724603
200922623661079732211910129210213
20091213179332873707032623
20084405492297568546685781039
20083-37799589343662227
20082-229458717426771684
20081-53093771086717890
20074-34060282617716411368
20073-110088837983814061
20072-10265566747672815961
20071-65923038329280514647
20064-973559212445110533

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


ARCHIVES


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING



Thursday, January 5, 2012

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,982,563,771 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.77-0.1)/0.298 = 8.96 (Moderate)
Target Price2.98+0.1 = 3.08 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.298, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY if stock price below or near to SMA20
Comment
Revenue decreased 5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.8%, eps decreased 18.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.5%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover dividend payout however still increased borrowing so that can cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, most division recorded lower result
First Support Price2.7
Second Support Price2.55
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price3.7 (2011-07-11)
HwangDBS Target Price3.5 (2011-11-10)
Maybank Target Price3.64 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price3.1 (2011-12-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.98%
Dividend Yield3.61%
Profit Margin12.09%
Tax Rate35.18%
Asset Turnover0.4858
Net Asset Value Per Share2.37
Net Tangible Asset per share0.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.0
Cash Per Share0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5049
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.9131
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.0789
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.4138
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5613
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale35.1%
Days to sell the inventory60
Days to collect the receivables43
Days to pay the payables90

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.686 (Uptrend 13 days)
SMA 502.646 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.594 (Same)
SMA 2002.731 (Uptrend)
MACD0.032803 (Uptrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram0.007926 (Uptrend 57 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to less draws and higher payout ratio

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 2.77 = 8.96(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.47/4.89 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,709,391,527 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.58-0.1)/0.4176 = 5.94 (Moderate)
Target Price4.18+0.1 = 4.28 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.4176, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 2.75
Comment
Revenue decreased 8.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.7%, eps decreased 23.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover dividend however increased borrowing so that can cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price2.55
Second Support Price2.4
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
AMMB Target Price3.7 (2011-07-11)
Maybank Target Price3.6 (2011-08-16)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.08%
Dividend Yield3.88%
Profit Margin15.41%
Tax Rate23.07%
Asset Turnover0.493
Net Asset Value Per Share2.62
Net Tangible Asset per share0.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.0
Cash Per Share0.74
Liquidity Current Ratio2.5171
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.8207
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1012
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3988
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5587
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.4%
Days to sell the inventory63
Days to collect the receivables43
Days to pay the payables81

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt than FY10Q2 mainly contributed by better results from the Gaming and Stockbroking divisions because lower prizes payout ratio and finance cost and higher revenue from non-margin accounts and fair value gain on investments

- Lower pbt in than FY10Q2 Financial Services Division due to higher fair value loss on quoted investments

- Lower pbt than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower sales and higher payout ratio in the Gaming Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 2.58 = 5.94(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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Monday, June 13, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)4,327,623,448 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.01-0.1)/0.656 = 4.44 (Moderate)
Target Price6.56+0.1 = 6.66 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.656, DPS 0.1)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue increased 4.8% and is second consecutive quarter increasing and but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 4.8%, eps increased 1% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, lower gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting periods are good, acquiring 49% remaining shares
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.75
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity11.21%
Dividend Yield3.32%
Profit Margin17.72%
Tax Rate18.92%
Asset Turnover0.5631
Net Asset Value Per Share2.3
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.41
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-7.63
Cash Per Share0.7
Liquidity Current Ratio3.0017
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.1507
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2381
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3329
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.517
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.1%
Days to sell the inventory64
Days to collect the receivables45
Days to pay the payables71

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly due to the better performance of the Gaming and Stockbroking Division

- Higher pbt from Gaming Division mainly due to lower payout ratio, increase in the number of draws and reduced finance cost

- Higher pbt from Financial Services Division mainly due to the better underwriting results, higher interest income from loan financing activities as well as fair value gain on assets

- Higher pbt from Stockbroking Division mainly due to the recovery of bad debts and the write back of specific provision for doubtful debts of the margin accounts

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 3.01 = 4.44(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,427,240,719 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.18-0.1)/0.282 = 10.92 (High)
Target Price2.82+0.1 = 2.92 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.282, DPS 0.1)
DecisionNot interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment
Revenue increased 6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.1%, eps increased 2.1% and is second consecutive quarter increasing but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 24.3%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing activities but not for investing activities, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, better gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting periods are good, 100% Magnum
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.75
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.36%
Dividend Yield3.14%
Profit Margin16.27%
Tax Rate17.63%
Asset Turnover0.6073
Net Asset Value Per Share2.2
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-5.44
Cash Per Share0.85
Liquidity Current Ratio2.379
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.372
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.231
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.2771
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5084
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.4%
Days to sell the inventory1
Days to collect the receivables42
Days to pay the payables90

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher gaming sales, lower payout ratio and lower finance cost have contributed primarily to the increase in the results

- Financial Services Division increased pretax mainly due to improved underwriting performance as a result of tightening of underwriting especially in the non-performing classes and greater emphasis on risk management of the insurance business

- Higher pbt in Stockbroking Division mainly due to increase in proprietary trading income and gain on fair value adjustment on investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate PE on current price 3.18 = 10.92(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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Friday, January 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2010 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,543,486,823 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.36-0.05)/0.2736 = 8.44 (Moderate)
Target Price2.74+0.05 = 2.79 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.2736, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps increased and higher than preceding year corresponding quarter, free cash flow increasing but still negative net cash flow, moderate liquidity ratio, very high gearing ratio, all accounting period as usual, possible of joint development of lands
First Support Price2.1
Second Support Price2.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity12.02%
Dividend Yield2.12%
Profit Margin16.23%
Tax Rate8.38%
Asset Turnover0.5964
Net Asset Value Per Share2.13
Net Tangible Asset per share-0.56
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share-3.79
Cash Per Share0.92
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4226
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.4155
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.2943
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.402
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5327
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale30.4%
Days to sell the inventory1
Days to collect the receivables44
Days to pay the payables94

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- The pbt and minority interests from the continuing operations at RM138.1 million for the current quarter was 105.5% higher than the pbt and minority interests of RM67.2 million achieved in the previous corresponding financial quarter due to improved performances in the Gaming, Stockbroking and Corporate & Other Divisions

- The pbt of Gaming Division at RM89.1 million achieved in the current quarter is higher by RM76.3 million compared to the pbt of RM12.8 million recorded in the previous corresponding period. 4D Jackpot sales which was launched in September last year, lower prizes payout ratio as well as reduced finance costs have contributed to the substantial increase in the profit

- Finance Services Division's pretax profit in the current quarter dropped slightly to RM17.7 million from the pretax profit of RM18 million recorded in the previous corresponding period. This is mainly due to write back of provision for impairment of investments in the previous corresponding period

- Recovery of debts and higher net gain from proprietary trading in the Stockbroking Division have resulted in a pbt of RM6.2 million which is 34.8% higher than RM4.6 million reported in the previous corresponding financial quarter

- The Group recorded a pbt of RM138.1 million for the current quarter which is RM17 million higher than RM121.1 million achieved in the immediate preceding quarter. The improvement is mainly due to higher contribution from Stockbroking and Corporate & Others Divisions

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate PE on current price 2.36 = 8.44(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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