KLCI Stock - MPHB / 3859 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	3,982,563,771 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.77-0.1)/0.298 = 8.96 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.98+0.1 = 3.08 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.298, DPS 0.1)
Decision	BUY if stock price below or near to SMA20
Comment	Revenue decreased 5% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.8%, eps decreased 18.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 35.5%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover dividend payout however still increased borrowing so that can cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, most division recorded lower result
First Support Price	2.7
Second Support Price	2.55
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

AMMB Target Price	3.7 (2011-07-11)
HwangDBS Target Price	3.5 (2011-11-10)
Maybank Target Price	3.64 (2011-11-24)
RHB Target Price	3.1 (2011-12-07)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.98%
Dividend Yield	3.61%
Profit Margin	12.09%
Tax Rate	35.18%
Asset Turnover	0.4858
Net Asset Value Per Share	2.37
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.0
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.0
Cash Per Share	0.73
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5049
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.9131
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0789
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.4138
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.5613
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	35.1%
Days to sell the inventory	60
Days to collect the receivables	43
Days to pay the payables	90

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	2.686 (Uptrend 13 days)
SMA 50	2.646 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	2.594 (Same)
SMA 200	2.731 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.032803 (Uptrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram	0.007926 (Uptrend 57 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to less draws and higher payout ratio

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0745*4 = 0.298(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate PE on current price 2.77 = 8.96(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0949*4*1.1 = 0.4176(eps after acquire 47% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.47/4.89 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.164*4 = 0.656(eps after acquire 49% remaining Magnum), estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.73/3.67 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.282, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.24/8.26 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1368*2 = 0.2736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.38 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0563*4*0.95 = 0.2139, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.35 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.22*1.05 = 0.231 (5% grow adjustment from 0.22 due to positive result), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/7.84 (DPS 0.09)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4 = 0.2*1.1 = 0.22 (10% grow from 0.2, due to 4D Jackpot game and current economic environment, result exclude other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.05/8.27 (DPS 0.1, correction to last quarter estimated)

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