KLCI Stock - GENTING / 3182 - 2011 Quarter 3

GENTING BERHAD
Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	40,800,315,954 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(10.98-0.08)/0.5792 = 18.82 (Moderate)
Target Price	11.58+0.08 = 11.66 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.5792, DPS 0.08)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling or Bolinger upper band open higher
Comment	Revenue increased 15.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.6%, eps decreased 11% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 22%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence still increased borrowings and spent 4.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from high to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are acceptable, CPO price uptrend
First Support Price	10.56
Second Support Price	10.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

Credit Suisse Target Price	13.5 (2011-01-13)
TA Target Price	13.26 (2011-02-18)
HwangDBS Target Price	14.3 (2011-02-24)
Macquarie Target Price	11.6 (2011-04-06)
CIMB Target Price	15.4 (2011-05-27)
UOB Target Price	13.63 (2011-06-13)
RHB Target Price	13.3 (2011-07-07)
AMMB Target Price	11.85 (2011-10-21)
ECM Target Price	9.83 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price	10.14 (2011-11-25)
HLG Target Price	11.19 (2012-01-12)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.12%
Dividend Yield	0.73%
Profit Margin	27.79%
Tax Rate	24.15%
Asset Turnover	0.3496
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.56
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.2
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.21
Cash Per Share	4.43
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.8679
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.7932
Liquidity Cash Ratio	2.3015
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2584
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	71.6%
Days to sell the inventory	16
Days to collect the receivables	67
Days to pay the payables	124

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	10.963 (Uptrend 7 days)
SMA 50	10.744 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	10.183 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	10.528 (Same)
MACD	0.178081 (Downtrend 9 days)
MACD Histogram	-0.022628 (Downtrend 6 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q3 due to:
1. Higher hold percentage in the premium players business in leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia
2. Construction revenue and profit from the progressive development of the facility at Resorts World Casino New York City
3. Higher dispatch from the Meizhou Wan power plant and compensation from the Fujian provincial government in respect of an increase in tariff rate
4. Higher palm products prices and higher FFB production
5. Gain on disposal of available-for-sale financial assets of RM221.6 million

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to a softening of palm products prices during the period as market sentiment was affected by global economic uncertainties and concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis and lower gain on disposal of available-for-sale financial assets

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1609*0.9*4 = 0.5792, estimate PE on current price 10.98 = 18.82(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1713*0.9*4 = 0.6167(exclude RM116.7 million one time gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/13.44 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7531*1.1 = 0.8284, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.67/11.25 (DPS 0.078)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.14*4*1.05 = 0.588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/16.59 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0945*4 = 0.3781, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.49/26.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1985*4 = 0.794, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.53/11.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2813*1.15 = 0.3235(15% increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.54/2 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0661*4 = 0.2644, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.77/23.18 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/15.62 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.23/27.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.88/23 (DPS 0.07)

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