KLCI Stock - MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	477,609,502 (Small)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.17-0.035)/0.1496 = 7.59 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.50+0.035 = 1.53 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1496, DPS 0.035)
Decision	BUY if stock price got strong buying volume than selling while stock price still above SMA20
Comment	Revenue increased 2.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 81.1%, eps increased 20.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 87.9%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at weak level now, lower gearing ratio at very high level now, receivables and payables ratio improving, cranes and marine division got higher than usual profit, higher inventory can indicate works amount still at satisfactory level
First Support Price	1.13
Second Support Price	1.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

CIMB Target Price	1.83 (2011-08-10)
Kencana Target Price	1.5 (2011-10-03)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	9.56%
Dividend Yield	2.99%
Profit Margin	6.35%
Tax Rate	31.30%
Asset Turnover	0.6793
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.22
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.18
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.91
Cash Per Share	0.66
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9847
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.8801
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1533
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	4.2166
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.7739
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-1.5%
Days to sell the inventory	38
Days to collect the receivables	256
Days to pay the payables	236

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.129 (Uptrend 15 days)
SMA 50	1.116 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.109 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.286 (Downtrend)
MACD	0.013998 (Uptrend 18 days)
MACD Histogram	0.016512 (Uptrend 14 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt is derived from the cranes and shipyard divisions which generated higher revenue with better profit margins

- As at 18 November 2011, the total outstanding secured order book in hand of the Group is RM2.79 billion, comprises of RM1.98 billion from Infrastructure Construction Division, RM609 million from Cranes Division and RM200 million from Shipyard Division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1425*1.05 = 0.1496, estimate PE on current price 1.17 = 7.59(DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4*0.85 = 0.1142(~8% ROE), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.06/8 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0438+0.0226)*2*1.05 = 0.1394, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.45/6.85 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0843*1.1 = 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/13.65 (DPS 0.035)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0481*2 = 0.0962(although revenue decrease but offset by high tax rate), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.06/12.79
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0266*4 = 0.1064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/7.99
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0135*4 = 0.054, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/15.74
- No estimate for 2009 Q4 result
- No estimate for 2009 Q3 result
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0362*4 = 0.1448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.29/6.94 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.039*4 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.17/4.04 (DPS 0.025)

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