Company Info
My Analysis
Research House
Accounting Ratio
Technical Analysis
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due mainly to higher flour revenue and an increase in grains trading volume recorded by the grains trading, flour and feed milling division. The environmental engineering, film exhibition and distribution, chemicals trading and manufacturing, livestock farming as well as consumer product divisions also contributed higher revenue
- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 due to larger gain of RM94.3 million in property investment last year and the fair value loss of RM9.6 million in investments in equities this year as compared with a gain of RM18.2 million for the same period last year
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower contribution from Wilmar in the third quarter, despite better performance by the grains trading, flour and feed milling division
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1935*4 = 0.774, estimate PE on current price 17.16 = 21.81(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2332*4*0.95 = 0.8862, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/16.79 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2237*4*0.95 = 0.8501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.88/18.88 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2429*4*1.05 = 1.0202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.25/15.57 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.268*4*1.1 = 1.1792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.73/12.56 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.2268+0.0127 = 1.2395 (adjustment from 0.242-0.2293, 0.242 represent eps excluded disposal of assets), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.61/11.54 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.4/12.48 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)
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| Market Capital (Capital Size) | 20,343,177,975 (Very Large) |
| Par Value | RM 1.00 |
My Analysis
| Forecast P/E now | (17.16-0.28)/0.774 = 21.81 (High) |
| Target Price | 13.93+0.28 = 14.21 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.774, DPS 0.28) |
| Decision | Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 a lot (BUY for short term) |
| Comment | Revenue increased 5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 23.6%, eps decreased 17% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 20.3%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing and investing is more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at very low level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate demand of Group products still good |
| First Support Price | 16.7 |
| Second Support Price | 16.0 |
| Risk Rating | MODERATE |
Research House
| HwangDBS Target Price | 15 (2011-03-04) |
| AMMB Target Price | 17.45 (2011-11-23) |
| WILSON & YORK Target Price | 19.08 (2011-11-23) |
Accounting Ratio
| Return on Equity | 6.48% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.63% |
| Profit Margin | 35.53% |
| Tax Rate | 5.00% |
| Asset Turnover | 0.1714 |
| Net Asset Value Per Share | 11.79 |
| Net Tangible Asset per share | 11.73 |
| Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share | 1.37 |
| Cash Per Share | 0.92 |
| Liquidity Current Ratio | 3.9554 |
| Liquidity Quick Ratio | 2.9498 |
| Liquidity Cash Ratio | 1.9769 |
| Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio | 0.0466 |
| Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio | 0.0432 |
| Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale | 62.9% |
| Days to sell the inventory | 85 |
| Days to collect the receivables | 66 |
| Days to pay the payables | 49 |
Technical Analysis
| SMA 20 | 16.639 (Uptrend 10 days) |
| SMA 50 | 16.602 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 100 | 16.584 (Uptrend) |
| SMA 200 | 16.736 (Uptrend) |
| MACD | 0.106236 (Uptrend 12 days) |
| MACD Histogram | 0.105339 (Uptrend 10 days) |
My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due mainly to higher flour revenue and an increase in grains trading volume recorded by the grains trading, flour and feed milling division. The environmental engineering, film exhibition and distribution, chemicals trading and manufacturing, livestock farming as well as consumer product divisions also contributed higher revenue
- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 due to larger gain of RM94.3 million in property investment last year and the fair value loss of RM9.6 million in investments in equities this year as compared with a gain of RM18.2 million for the same period last year
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower contribution from Wilmar in the third quarter, despite better performance by the grains trading, flour and feed milling division
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1935*4 = 0.774, estimate PE on current price 17.16 = 21.81(DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2332*4*0.95 = 0.8862, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/16.79 (DPS 0.28)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2237*4*0.95 = 0.8501, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.88/18.88 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.2429*4*1.05 = 1.0202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.25/15.57 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.268*4*1.1 = 1.1792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.73/12.56 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.2268+0.0127 = 1.2395 (adjustment from 0.242-0.2293, 0.242 represent eps excluded disposal of assets), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.61/11.54 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.4/12.48 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)
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