KLCI Stock - IJM / 3336 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	7,875,168,757 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(5.7-0.11)/0.33 = 16.94 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.27+0.11 = 6.38 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.33, DPS 0.11)
Decision	BUY if Bolinger upper band open and stock price uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 6.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.7%, eps decreased 35.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 36.5%, cash generated from operating not enough to fully cover financing expenses hence still generated cash from financing activities to cover other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, benefit from CPO price above 3.1k, high inventory and property development cost can indicate segment performance can maintain
First Support Price	5.4
Second Support Price	5.2
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	6.35 (2011-01-03)
MIDF Target Price	6.48 (2011-02-24)
Credit Suisse Target Price	8 (2011-03-29)
OSK Target Price	6.96 (2011-05-30)
CIMB Target Price	7.81 (2011-07-05)
UOB Target Price	6.3 (2011-08-15)
AMMB Target Price	7.71 (2011-09-12)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.7 (2011-09-14)
ECM Target Price	7.02 (2011-11-29)
HLG Target Price	5.76 (2011-11-29)
Maybank Target Price	6.2 (2011-11-29)
RHB Target Price	4.48 (2012-01-18)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	4.52%
Dividend Yield	1.93%
Profit Margin	14.71%
Tax Rate	31.13%
Asset Turnover	0.3047
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.71
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.65
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.53
Cash Per Share	1.63
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.6405
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.7359
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9272
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.2876
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.498
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	99.3%
Days to sell the inventory	240
Days to collect the receivables	170
Days to pay the payables	166

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	5.512 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 50	5.563 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	5.449 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	5.799 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.012606 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	0.002569 (Uptrend 1 day)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher revenue from plantation and property division

- Lower pbt due to unrealised foreign exchange losses on US Dollar denominated borrowings in Infrastructure division of RM32 million

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0825*4 = 0.33, estimate PE on current price 5.7 = 16.94(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0825*4*0.95 = 0.3135, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.3/11.96 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1819*2*1.1 = 0.4002, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.07/13.17 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/16.87 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0765*4*1.1 = 0.3366, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.93/15.92 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0662*4*1.05 = 0.278, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/17.3 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2484*0.9 = 0.2236 (10% drop, exclude foreign exchange gained), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.58/19.5 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0621*4 = 0.2484 (expecting revenue and profit recover hence no decrease on eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.53/17.43 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.13/16.55 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.271, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.13/15.68 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.3251, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.53/16.15 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.06/12.44 (DPS 0.25)

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