KLCI Stock - DAYANG / 5141 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	990,000,000 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.8-0.1)/0.187 = 9.09 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.24+0.1 = 2.34 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.187, DPS 0.1)
Decision	BUY if MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 2.5% and was seventh consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.6%), eps increased 24.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.2%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated cash from disposal and financing activities to cover, weaker liquidity ratio at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable but pay attention to higher payables, high profit division still growth
First Support Price	1.8
Second Support Price	1.7
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.7 (2011-10-05)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.7 (2011-11-16)
ECM Target Price	2.27 (2011-11-23)
RHB Target Price	1.73 (2011-11-23)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	18.83%
Dividend Yield	5.56%
Profit Margin	37.88%
Tax Rate	20.80%
Asset Turnover	0.5435
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.97
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.97
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.87
Cash Per Share	0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.0511
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.0404
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.6335
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3254
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2455
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	67.4%
Days to sell the inventory	2
Days to collect the receivables	168
Days to pay the payables	140

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.826 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 50	1.815 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.755 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	1.854 (Same)
MACD	0.013949 (Downtrend 13 days)
MACD Histogram	-0.006396 (Downtrend 10 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to higher value of work orders received and performed and slightly higher profit margin contribution

- The Group has on-going contracts exceeding RM1.5 billion to last at least until 2016

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.187, estimate PE on current price 1.8 = 9.09(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0442+0.0354)*2*1.1 = 0.1751, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.57/7.48 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0354*4*1.2 = 0.1699, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/9.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0326(17927/550000)*4*1.1 = 0.1434, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.06/12.9 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0526*4*1.1 = 0.2314, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.22/12.14 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1239*1.1 = 0.1363 (0.1239 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.94/14.16 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.129/4(average eps from recent 4Q)*0.9 = 0.1161 (10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.67/12.79 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1237*0.9 = 0.1113(10% drop year-to-year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.14/14.82 (DPS 0.05, correction to last Q estimated)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1246, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.21/9.71 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1548, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.98/6.91 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1338, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/3.73 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.15, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.87/ (DPS 0.14)

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