KLCI Stock - MUDAJYA / 5085 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,200,834,960 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.20

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.19-0.075)/0.3815 = 5.54 (Moderate)
Target Price	4.58+0.075 = 4.65 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.3815, DPS 0.075)
Decision	BUY if buying volume largely stronger than selling volume
Comment	Revenue decreased 5.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 76.4%, eps decreased 6.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.9%, cash generated from operating enough for financing expenses but spent 21.7% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at below moderate level now, receivables and payables ratio still acceptable, manufacturing division slow down
First Support Price	2.15
Second Support Price	2.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.96 (2011-10-14)
CIMB Target Price	4 (2011-11-23)
HLG Target Price	4.61 (2011-12-15)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	24.70%
Dividend Yield	3.88%
Profit Margin	23.84%
Tax Rate	5.84%
Asset Turnover	0.9326
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.95
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.95
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.1
Cash Per Share	0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.869
Liquidity Quick Ratio	2.6242
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.7318
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.3074
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.2221
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	44.5%
Days to sell the inventory	28
Days to collect the receivables	164
Days to pay the payables	110

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	2.199 (Downtrend 5 days)
SMA 50	2.239 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	2.325 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	2.872 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.047484 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram	0.009836 (Uptrend 57 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 mainly attributable to the increased level of activities

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 was affected by the stronger Ringgit Malaysia (RM) against US Dollar (USD) and the lower contribution from some of the activities

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 63001*4*0.83/548326 = 0.3815, estimate PE on current price 2.19 = 5.54(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1477+0.1011)*2*0.75 = 0.3732, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.18/4.53 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.2407*2 = 0.4814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.74/6.54 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.5096*1.05 = 0.5351, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.62/8.16 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1137*0.9*4 = 0.4093, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.18/9.05 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1235*0.9*4 = 0.4446(based on preceding quarter eps to minus 10% adjustment due to revenue dropped 12%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.34/8.54 (DPS 0.045)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1235*4 = 0.494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.27/7.51 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1102*4 = 0.4408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.51/10.81 (DPS 0.036)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4 = 0.3792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.76/10.68 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0711*4 = 0.2844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.31/11.25 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0377*4 = 0.1508, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.6/9.08 (DPS 0.031)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.98/9.58 (DPS 0.045)

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