KLCI Stock - PETDAG / 5681 - 2011 Quarter 6

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	16,988,063,400 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(17.1-0.8)/0.8712 = 18.71 (Moderate)
Target Price	16.55+0.8 = 17.35 (PE 19.0, EPS 0.8712, DPS 0.8)
Decision	BUY if MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment	Revenue decreased 3.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 32.9%, eps increased 7.3% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9%, no cash generated from operating and got generated cash from financing activities and still used 35.3% of Group cash to cover others expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, benefit from crude oil price increasing
First Support Price	16.8
Second Support Price	16.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price	14.4 (2011-02-17)
HwangDBS Target Price	12.75 (2011-05-25)
CIMB Target Price	21.6 (2011-08-11)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.19%
Dividend Yield	3.80%
Profit Margin	4.11%
Tax Rate	24.86%
Asset Turnover	3.0837
Net Asset Value Per Share	4.7
Net Tangible Asset per share	4.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.48
Cash Per Share	0.67
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.263
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.0269
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1724
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.878
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4655
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	3.7%
Days to sell the inventory	13
Days to collect the receivables	44
Days to pay the payables	47

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	17.208 (Uptrend 2 days)
SMA 50	16.613 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	16.599 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	16 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.271052 (Downtrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram	0.027988 (Uptrend 39 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 6 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q2 resulted from higher average product selling prices and higher sales volume

- Lower revenue than FY11Q5 was due to lower average product selling prices and lower sales volume

- Higher pbt mainly due to higher gross profit

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q6 result announced = 0.4356*2 = 0.8712, estimate PE on current price 17.1 = 18.71(DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q5 result announced = (0.2101+0.23)*2 = 0.8802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.94/16.64 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.23*4*1.05 = 0.966, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.69/15.06 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.2068*4*1.03 = 0.852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.79/11.98 (DPS 0.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7579*1.05 = 0.7958, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.2/11.96 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.7579*0.95 = 0.72(5% drop due to lower gross profit compared to the preceding quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.81/11.26 (DPS 0.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1885*4 = 0.754, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.63/10.84 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.66/10.06 (DPS 0.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)

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