KLCI Stock - NOTION / 0083 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 154561378*3.21 = 496,142,023.38 (Small)
NTA per share : 224121/151946 = 1.48
P/BV : 3.21/1.48 = 2.1689 (Moderate due to high PE)
Forecast P/E now : (3.21-0.025)/0.3788 = 8.41 (Moderate)
ROE : 26.76% (High)
DY : 0.025/3.21*100 = 0.78% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.6055+0.6738+0.5842)/3 = 0.6212 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 152309/65895 = 2.3114 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (56781+27260)/2/(212086/365) = 72 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 3.79+0.025 = 3.82 (PE 10, EPS 0.3788, DPS 0.025)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue growing, cash flow from operating still not enough to cover investing, moderate debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 3, 2.74
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 3.55 (30 Apr 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- The Group recorded a decrease of 14.3% as compared to previous year corresponding period. The lower earnings is mainly attributable to initial start up cost of new projects such as the Thailand operations and base plate projects of which the earnings will only come on stream in the following quarters
- Yoy the revenue and profit after tax was 54% and 122% higher respectively. The strong growth in revenue and PAT is mainly attributable to the recovery in all the business segments
- The product mix for the Q2FY2010 was HDD:Camera:Industrial/Automotive of 48%:36%:16% compared to previous quarter's mix of 34%:47%:19%. The HDD revenue increased by 40% whilst the camera sector was lower by 24% compared to Q1FY2010
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3788 (0.1804*2 = 0.3608, 5% grow from 0.3608), estimate PE on current price 3.21 = 8.41(DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.3674, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/7.57 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0185*4 = 0.074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.62/9.95 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0158*4 = 0.0632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.39/5.49 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0065*4 = 0.026, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.46/9.23 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0103*4 = 0.0412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/3.64 (DPS 0.01)

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