KLCI Stock - PPB / 4065 - 2009 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 1185499882*17.82 = 21,125,607,897.24 (Large)
NTA per share : (14086542-72444-1969-6334)/1185500 = 11.81
P/BV : 17.82/11.81 = 1.5089 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (17.82-0.73)/1.2268 = 13.93 (High due to low ROE)
ROE : 11.33% (Moderate)
DY : 0.73/17.82*100 = 4.1% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.1331+0.1883+0.2495+0.3554)/4 = 0.2316 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 1364482/386987 = 3.5259 (Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (352338+445282)/2/(2005429/365) = 72 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 17.18+0.73 = 17.91 (PE 14, EPS 1.2268, DPS 0.73)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless revenue recover or price below 16.3)
My Comment : Revenue dropping, margin increased due to wheat price decreasing, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 17.5, 16
Risk Rating : LOW

My notes based on 2009 quarter 4 report (number in '000):
- Group revenue for continuing operations was 19% lower than last year. The decrease was mainly due to lower revenue registered by the flour and feed milling in line with the lower prices of soft commodities, environmental engineering, chemicals trading and manufacturing divisions
- Group profit before tax for continuing operations recorded an increase of about 19% from last year. The increase was mainly due to higher contribution from Wilmar International Limited (“Wilmar”), an associate of the Group. The flour and feed milling division however registered lower profits despite higher sales volume due to reduced selling prices of flour, whilst the Group’s shipping operation was affected by low global charter hire rates
- Net profit after tax from discontinued operations was higher when compared with last year due mainly to increase in sugar sales volume and better operating margins
- Group profit before tax for continuing operations for the quarter under review was 36% lower compared with the preceding quarter. This was mainly due to lower profit contribution from Wilmar in the current quarter. The grains trading, flour and feed milling divisions also recorded lower profits as a result of lower selling prices
- Net profit after tax from discontinued operations was higher when compared with the preceding quarter due mainly to increase in sugar sales volume
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate PE on current price 17.82 = 13.93(DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)

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