KLCI Stock - PPB / 4065 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 1185499882*15.5 = 18,375,248,171 (Large)
NTA per share : (14147297-72444-1856-6493)/1185500 = 11.87
P/BV : 15.5/11.87 = 1.3058 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (15.5-0.73)/1.2395 = 11.92 (Undervalue)
ROE : 11.35% (Moderate)
DY : 0.73/15.5*100 = 4.71% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.1364+0.1506+0.2533)/3 = 0.1801 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 2181076/297039 = 7.3427 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (449086+426290)/2/(2013834/365) = 79 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 17.35+0.73 = 18.08 (PE 14, EPS 1.2395, DPS 0.73)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue remain low but maybe start to recover, good cash flow, low debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 15, 14.4
Risk Rating : LOW

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- Group revenue for the first quarter ended 31 March 2010 was marginally higher than the same period last year. The increase was mainly due to higher revenue recorded by the film exhibition and distribution division, off-set by lower revenue from the environment engineering, waste management and utilities division as no new contracts were secured during the quarter
- Group profit before tax represents an increase of about 14% over the corresponding period last year. Despite lower flour selling prices, the flour and feed milling division contributed higher profits due to lower raw material costs whilst film exhibition and distribution registered higher profits arising from higher admissions due to better movie titles released
- The completion of disposal of the Group's sugar-related assets in early January 2010 resulted in a gain of RM838 million recognised in the first quarter under review
- Group profit before tax for continuing operations was 6% lower compared with the preceding quarter. This was mainly due to lower profit contribution from Wilmar International Limited in the current quarter. However the grains trading, flour and feed milling and other divisions recorded higher profits; whilst the livestock farming division incurred a loss for the current financial period
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.2268+0.0127 = 1.2395 (adjustment from 0.242-0.2293, 0.242 represent eps excluded disposal of assets), estimate PE on current price 15.5 = 11.92(DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.2268 (10% drop from 1.3631), estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.4/12.48 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.2357, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.15/11.79 (DPS 0.73)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.2152, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.13/12.22 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 1.0309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.7/9.96 (DPS 0.23)

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