Market Cap : 248457614*3.87 = 961,530,966.18 (Medium)
NTA per share : 390942/248458 = 1.57
P/BV : 3.87/1.57 = 2.465
Forecast P/E now : (3.87-0.06)/0.2272 = 16.77 (High)
ROE : 19.21% (Moderate)
DY : 0.06/3.87*100 = 1.55% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (0.875+1.1121+0.6062)/3 = 0.8644
Liquidity Ratio : 330777/165744 = 1.9957 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (309952+162941)/2/(516490/365) = 167 days
My Target Price : 3.18 + 0.06 = 3.24 (PE 14, EPS 0.2272, DPS 0.06)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 3.3
My Comment : Revenue dropped, still negative net cash flow, low debt, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : -
Risk Rating : MODERATE
My notes based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):
- The Group’s revenue was 24% lower as compared to the corresponding quarter, due to projects being at various stages of completion, coupled with the weakening of the US Dollar, the currency in which a significant amount of the Group’s revenue is denominated. However, the lower revenue and reduced share of profit in associates was to a certain extent offset by decreased costs
- The profit before taxation was 11% lower as compared to the immediate preceding quarter results. Lower progress billings due to our projects being at various stages of completion, coupled with reduced share of profit in associates, contributed to the decline
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0631*4 = 0.2524*0.9 = 0.2272 (10% drop from 0.2524), estimate PE on current price 3.87 = 16.77(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0749*4 = 0.2996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.75/12.65 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.16 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.67/16.24 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.99/12.68 (DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/9.7 (DPS 0.055)
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