KLCI Stock - GAB / 3255 - 2010 Quarter 3

GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD

Listing Date: 31.03.1965
Market: MAIN
Sector: CONSUMER
Par Value: 0.50
Major Industry: Food & Beverages
Sub Industry : Brewers
Market Cap : 302098000*7.16 = 2,163,021,680 (Small)
NTA per share : (465677-7064)/302098 = 1.52
P/BV : 7.16/1.52 = 4.7105 (High)
Forecast P/E now : (7.16-0.41)/0.517 = 13.06 (Moderate)
ROE : 31.32% (High)
DY : 0.41/7.16*100 = 5.73% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.9428+1.8532+1.7908)/3 = 1.8623 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 453826/185879 = 2.4415 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (262813+197447)/2/(1326194/365) = 63 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : 7.24+0.41 = 7.65 (PE 14, EPS 0.517, DPS 0.41)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 6.9)
My Comment : Revenue maintaining high, cash flow recover from preceding quarter, moderate debt, navps increased, better margin
Technical Support Price : 6.83, 6.6
Risk Rating : LOW
OSK Target Price : 7.35

GUINNESS ANCHOR BERHAD operates in the beer and stout market of the brewing industry, engaged in the production, Guinness Anchor Berhad operates in the brewing industry principally in Malaysia. The Company is principally engaged in the production, packaging, marketing and distribution of GUINNESS Stout, GUINNESS Draught, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong Beer, Tiger Beer, Heineken Beer, Kilkenny Draught, Anglia Shandy and Malta. The Company’s subsidiaries include Guinness Anchor Marketing Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in the marketing and promotion of GUINNESS Stout, GUINNESS Draught, Anchor Smooth, Anchor Strong Beer, Tiger Beer, Heineken Beer, Kilkenny Draught, Anglia Shandy and Malta in Malaysia, and Ramaha Corporation (M) Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in property holding and land development.

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue increased by 17.8% as compared to corresponding quarter last year mainly due to the later timing of the Chinese New Year celebrations
- Group profit before tax was higher by 43.3% due to consistent volume growth, benefiting from the brand investments made during the first half of the financial year
- Group revenue decreased by 1.9% as compared to preceding quarter due to higher sales in the preceding quarter as a result of pre-budget speculative purchases by the trade
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.517 (10% grow from 0.47), estimate PE on current price 7.16 = 13.06(DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.517, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.17/12.13 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/13.17 (DPS 0.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.47, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.47/12.9.6 (DPS 0.41)

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