KLCI Stock - LEADER / 4529 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 436458652*0.805 = 351,349,214.86 (Small)
NTA per share : 538768/436459 = 1.23
P/BV : 0.805/1.23 = 0.6545
Forecast P/E now : (0.805-0.03)/0.1041 = 7.44 (Moderate)
ROE : 7.53% (Low)
DY : 0.03/0.805*100 = 3.73% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.6746+1.9234+2.1569)/3 = 1.9183 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 745038/447725 = 1.6641 (Low)
Receivables Collection Period : (327504+337059)/2/(2050956/365) = 59 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested unless operating expenses improved
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue increased but cost increased more, bad cash flow, high debt, navps decreased
Technical Support Price : 0.78, 0.75
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 1.05 (24 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group registered a 22.7% increase of revenue as compared to the corresponding quarter ended 31 March 2009. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in metal prices in current quarter
- The Group recorded a 21% dropped of profit before tax as compared to the corresponding quarter ended 31 March 2009 as a result of the higher operating expenses in current quarter
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1041, estimate PE on current price 0.805 = 7.44(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0261*4 = 0.1044, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.77/7.71 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0363*4 = 0.1452, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.44/4.92 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.032*4 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.29/5.35 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0281*4 = 0.1124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/5.2 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0289*4 = 0.1156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.97/3.16 (DPS 0.03)

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