KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2010 Quarter 1

Par Value: 1.00
Market Cap : 380000000*1.85 = 703,000,000 (Small)
NTA per share : 809059/373200 = 2.17 (Increased)
P/BV : 1.85/2.17 = 0.8525 (Undervalue)
Forecast P/E now : (1.85-0.2)/0.2936 = 5.62 (Low)
ROE : 14.67% (Moderate)
DY : 0.2/1.85*100 = 10.81% (High)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0895+1.5355+1.5253)/3 = 1.3834 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 569149/44709 = 12.73 (Very Strong)
Receivables Collection Period : (139631+107894)/2/(978371/365) = 46 days (Good)
My Target Price : 2.35+0.2 = 2.55 (PE 8, EPS 0.2936, DPS 0.2)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : World steel price increasing, bad cash flow, low debt, strong cash, navps increasing, lower margin
Technical Support Price : 1.75, 1.65
Risk Rating : LOW

My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The Group achieved 63% higher in revenue than that of its corresponding quarter, due to the significantly higher sales volume and favourable selling prices of our steel products
- Compared to preceding quarter, the Group's revenue has increased by 2.9% primarily due to higher selling prices of our steel products
- Despite the higher revenue, profit before tax reduced by 8.9%. This is mainly due to the lower selling prices of our steel products
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate PE on current price 1.85 = 5.62(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

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