KLCI Stock - MISC / 3816 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 4463793103*8.82 = 39,370,655,168.46 (Large)
NTA per share : (23661972-963298)/4463793 = 5.09 (Increased)
P/BV : 8.82/5.09 = 1.7328 (Moderate)
Forecast P/E now : (8.82-0.35)/0.2036 = 41.6 (High)
ROE : 2.84% (Low)
DY : 0.35/8.82*100 = 3.97% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.3355+0.4305+0.4463+0.4006)/4 = 0.4032 (Low)
Liquidity Ratio : 10226244/7614312 = 1.343 (Weak)
Receivables Collection Period : (1676326+2844201)/2/(13775074/365) = 59 days (Acceptable)
My Target Price : Not interested
My Decision : NOT BUY
My Comment : Revenue growth, bad cash flow, high debt, navps increased
Technical Support Price : 8.15, 7.8
Risk Rating : HIGH
OSK Target Price : 10 (25 Feb 2010)

My study based on 2010 Quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- The Group recorded a PBT of RM279.1 million (excluding gain on disposal of ships) in the fourth quarter, which was 49.3% higher than the corresponding quarter’s PBT of RM186.9 million. The increase was mainly due to higher profits in LNG and Offshore businesses. The Group's cost reduction efforts have led to lower operating costs thereby improving results as compared to the corresponding quarter
- The Group profit before taxation of RM279.1 million (excluding gain on disposal of ships) was 45.7% higher than the RM191.6 million profit recorded in the preceding quarter. The higher profit recorded arose mainly from increased profit in Offshore and Heavy Engineering businesses
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0509*4 = 0.2036, estimate PE on current price 8.82 = 41.6(DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 48.03/40.65 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0457*4 = 0.1828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 47.37/40.59 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0544*4 = 0.2176, estimate highest/lowest PE = 42/37.91 (DPS 0.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.058*4 = 0.232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 37.07/33.62 (DPS 0.35)

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