KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 131581900*3.88 = 510,537,772 (Small)
NTA per share : 225467/131528 = 1.71
P/BV : 3.88/1.71 = 2.269
Forecast P/E now : (3.88-0.075)/0.4074 = 9.34 (Moderate)
ROE : 22.14% (High)
DY : 0.075/3.88*100 = 1.93% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.344+1.3958+1.3529)/3 = 1.3642 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 283050/125481 = 2.2557 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (38358+37703)/2/(487683/365) = 28 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.07+0.075 = 4.15 (PE 10, EPS 0.4074, DPS 0.075)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 3.8)
My Comment : Revenue growing but ratio slow down, good cash flow, high debt and increasing, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.77, 3.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.25 (01 Mar 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- Revenues for the quarter under review declined year-on-year by 0.8%. Gross margins however rose by nearly 1.2% to 51.1% over the same quarters, causing absolute gross profits to improve by about 1.5%. With Chinese New Year in 2010 falling late in February, retail buying in December of 2009 had been fairly sluggish as most consumers deferred their spending in preference for newer merchandise that would be offered during the Jan / Feb months of the new year. It is noted that though total revenues fell, the fall was caused actually by a drop in the value of exports, from about RM12.2 million in the same quarter last year to RM8.55 million this year. If the fall in exports was taken out, it can be seen that domestic sales had actually risen by about RM2.6 million year-on-year
- Profit before taxation for the current quarter on the other hand fell about 20.4% year-on-year and this reduction was caused primarily by operating expenses for the current quarter rising by 9.3% from those incurred in the previous year’s same quarter. The bulk of this increase arose from increased spending for advertising & promotion, rentals, depreciation, yearly bonuses, and for the increased provisions made for loyalty points to be awarded to our card members
- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had declined by 8.8%. This decline can be attributed to firstly the current quarter being affected by the longer Chinese New Year season occurring in 2010, and secondly to the exceptionally robust sales that had resulted from the Merdeka mega sales and the Hari Raya festive shopping which fell within the previous quarter. Despite the higher gross margins earned during the quarter reviewed, its profit before taxation fell by 38.5% when compared to the same made in the previous quarter. This decline is primarily attributed to the reduced gross profits earned, as well as to an increase in operating expenses and provisions made for loyalty points
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate PE on current price 3.88 = 9.34(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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