KLCI Stock - LATEXX / 7064 - 2010 Quarter 1

Market Cap : 206420113*3.85 = 794,717,435.05 (Small)
NTA per share : (193919-20358)/261593 = 0.6635 (Increased)
P/BV : 3.85/0.6635 = 5.8026 (High, dropped)
Forecast P/E now : (3.85-0.01)/0.3368 = 11.4 (Moderate)
ROE : 34.33% (High, increased)
DY : 0.01/3.85*100 = 0.26% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.0748+0.999+0.8929)/3 = 0.989 (Moderate, increased)
Liquidity Ratio : 154970/111919 = 1.3847 (Low, increased)
Receivables Collection Period : (77056+39296)/2/(384280/365) = 55 days (Acceptable, shorter)
My Target Price : 4.38+0.01 = 4.39 (PE 13, EPS 0.3368, DPS 0.01)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue growing, good cash flow, high debt, navps increasing, increase in raw material, weakening of US dollar
Technical Support Price : 3.7, 3.55
Risk Rating : MODERATE

My study based on 2010 Quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in Group revenue and profit were mainly driven by recent capacity expansion coupled with aggressive marketing strategy and as well as overall cost savings
- Despite the increase in raw material prices and the weakening of US dollar, the increase in Group profit was due principally to increased sales volume and improved overall efficiency achieved giving rise to lower overheads, operational and supervision costs
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0792*4 = 0.3168+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3368, estimate PE on current price 3.85 = 11.4(DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0675*4 = 0.27+0.02(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.29, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.62/12.14 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0566*4 = 0.2264, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.78/10.42 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0586*4 = 0.2344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.99/7.81 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.047*4 = 0.188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/4.2 (DPS 0.01)

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