Market Cap : 271405232*6.8 = 1,845,555,577.60 (Medium)
NTA per share : (633702-28716)/271405 = 2.23 (Better than preceding quarter)
P/BV : 6.8/2.23 = 3.0493 (Cheaper than preceding quarter)
Forecast P/E now : (6.8-0.11)/0.6829 = 9.8 (Low)
ROE : 26.85% (High)
DY : 0.11/6.8*100 = 1.62% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(4 year) : (0.8723+0.8575+0.6612+0.7455)/4 = 0.7841 (Moderate)
Liquidity Ratio : 425313/196880 = 2.1603 (Better than preceding quarter)
Receivables Collection Period : (205939+183183)/2/(843116/365) = 84 days (Same as preceding quarter)
My Target Price : 8.19+0.11 = 8.3 (PE 12, EPS 0.6829, DPS 0.11), around 23% price increased from 6.75
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue growth compared to previous year corresponding period but not exceed max revenue on 2009 Q3, operating expenses continue low, debt reducing, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 6.6, 6.2
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 10 (22 Feb 2010)
My notes based on 2010 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue rose by 14.2% on the back of strong global demand for rubber gloves. The strong demand coupled with the limited capacity expansion by the major glove players over the last 2 years have resulted in a supply demand imbalance which has driven glove prices up.
- The improvement of profitability is attributed to the strong revenue growth as well as cost savings from higher efficiency and productivity from improved processes and refurbished lines
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate PE on current price 6.8 = 9.8(DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)
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Related companies: TOPGLOV, ADVENTA, HARTA
Risk and Ruin
2 days ago
4 comments:
bro,
can pls explain :
"Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate PE on current price 6.8 = 9.8(DPS 0.11)" where does the 0.0253 come from?
and how come you don't use the 18.97eps*4 after Q12010 results announced?
do you think the strong ringgit will bit into the profit much? thanks.
0.0253 is some adjustment from 0.1897-0.1644, this help me adjust my buy/sell price.
"Ringgit appreciating strongly against the USD, ......, thus allowing glove manufacturers to pass on the cost increases to the consumers by adjusting average selling prices."
And
Management expenses reducing quite a lot also, then revenue also increased.
Bit into profit should be got but also confident to management effort to offset the impact. The risk is there, buy cheap or expensive only, long term is good.
thank you for comments, cwyeoh.
Hello, I do not agree with the previous commentator - not so simple
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