KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 3

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD



Company Description

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD is a Malaysia-based investment holding company. The Company operates through its subsidiaries, which are engaged in the dealership of ladies’ shoes and accessories, garments and ancillary products, children’s garments, maternity wear and accessories. It operates in two principal geographical areas: Malaysia and Hong Kong. Its major subsidiaries include Vincci Ladies’ Specialties Centre Sdn. Bhd., Padini Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Seed Corporation Sdn. Bhd., Yee Fong Hung (Malaysia) Sendirian Berhad, Mikihouse Children’s Wear Sdn. Bhd., Vincci Holdings Sdn. Bhd., Padini Dot Com Sdn. Bhd., The New World Garment Manufacturers Sdn. Bhd. and Padini International Limited.

Company Info 

Listing Date	1998-03-05
Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,125,025,245 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.10
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Garments
Sub Industry	Shoes & Accessories
Website	http://www.padini.com/

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.71-0.08)/0.1738 = 9.38 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.91+0.08 = 1.99 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.1738, DPS 0.08)
Decision	BUY if stock price sustain and uptrend above SMA20
Comment	Revenue decreased 13.1% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19%, eps decreased 15% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.5%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got borrowings to cover investing expenses, gross margin still very high, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio from moderate to below moderate level now, 18.8% lower debt ratio, inventory still high which can target higher revenue
First Support Price	1.65
Second Support Price	1.55
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)
Inter Pacific Target Price	1.21 (2011-05-31)
Maybank Target Price	1.7 (2012-03-13)
Jupiter Target Price	1.57 (2012-04-04)
Alliance Target Price	1.85 (2012-04-05)
AMMB Target Price	2.15 (2012-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price	2.1 (2012-05-31)
JF Apex Target Price	2 (2012-05-31)
OSK Target Price	2.22 (2012-05-31)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	35.93%
Dividend Yield	4.68%
Gross Profit Margin	51.75%
Operating Profit Margin	18.51%
Net Profit Margin	18.14%
Tax Rate	23.93%
Asset Turnover	1.39
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.5
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.6
Cash Per Share	0.22
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.8775
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3357
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.0627
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.4729
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3211
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.7%
Days to sell the inventory	227
Days to collect the receivables	20
Days to pay the payables	84

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.686 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 50	1.594 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.456 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.208 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.032547 ( 0.002323 )
Signal (9)	0.038967 ( 0.001605 )
MACD Histogram	0.006420 (Bearish trend 3 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	1.825
Bolinger Lower Band	1.547

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 due mainly to a net increase of about 98000 square feet in gross floor area under retail but lower pbt due to better than usual sell-through rates for merchandise offered for sales in previous year

- Lower revenue and pbt due to previous quarter got Chinese New Year shopping and longer period of subdued retail activity before promotional retail activities resumed in mid-March 2012

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 336396*0.34/657910 = 0.1738, estimate PE on current price 1.71 = 9.38(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 325811*0.34/657910 = 0.1684, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.51/7.42 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.19 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-05-30	2012	3	N/A	N/A	0.02	8.59%	28.22%	176006	556574	31928	107536	24287	79784	0.0369	0.1213	495469	159073	-	336396	51893	18058	27936	138812	33835	5899	144711	657910	657910	1184238	2012-03-31	51.75%	18.51%	18.14%	23.93%	1.39	-	0.51	0.5	3.6	0.22	2.8775	1.3357	1.0627	0.4729	0.3211	37.7%	227	20	84
2012-02-28	2012	2	1.85	1.33	0.02	10.10%	19.63%	202453	380568	38868	75608	28551	55497	0.0434	0.0844	539069	213258	-	325811	47223	12659	11809	139233	34564	22755	161988	657910	657910	875020	2011-12-31	48.97%	19.53%	19.20%	26.54%	1.2256	-	0.5	0.48	2.77	0.25	2.2969	1.108	0.8458	0.6545	0.3956	37.7%	262	27	151
2011-11-29	2012	1	1.4	1.05	0.02	9.53%	9.53%	178115	178115	36740	36740	26946	26946	0.0410	0.0410	481213	170775	-	310438	18150	7559	22236	139249	10591	11645	127604	657910	657910	690805	2011-09-30	49.38%	20.89%	20.63%	26.66%	1.2469	-	0.47	0.46	2.28	0.19	2.5823	1.1422	0.8617	0.5501	0.3549	39.2%	273	25	149
2011-08-26	2011	4	1.11	0.82	-	7.71%	32.13%	132146	558561	25363	104632	18076	75295	0.0275	0.1144	444339	161662	-	282677	29127	2041	22691	134227	27086	4395	138622	657910	657910	585539	2011-06-30	50.79%	19.52%	19.19%	28.73%	1.2571	7.7766	0.43	0.42	2.12	0.21	2.5354	1.2961	1.0074	0.5719	0.3638	37.9%	240	26	125
2011-05-30	2011	3	1.17	0.885	0.02	10.41%	24.42%	147960	426415	33354	79269	24386	57219	0.0371	0.0870	429576	152200	-	277376	36899	4126	27883	134238	32773	4890	139128	657910	657910	710542	2011-03-31	60.01%	22.76%	22.54%	26.89%	1.2589	-	0.42	0.41	2.63	0.23	2.5376	1.3756	1.1254	0.5487	0.3543	37.7%	225	22	132
2011-02-25	2011	2	1.2	1.0	-	6.18%	14.01%	141814	278455	20264	45915	14484	32833	0.0220	0.0499	434282	167856	-	266426	39465	3429	10721	134456	36036	25315	159771	657910	657910	703963	2010-12-31	49.36%	14.64%	14.29%	28.52%	1.2256	-	0.4	0.39	2.74	0.26	2.1363	1.352	1.0728	0.63	0.3865	33.8%	172	30	150
2010-11-29	2011	1	5.56	1.04	0.02	7.83%	7.83%	136641	136641	25651	25651	18349	18349	0.1394	0.1394	379439	127437	-	252002	23381	368	23255	134505	23749	494	134999	131582	131582	655278	2010-09-30	52.93%	18.96%	18.77%	28.47%	1.3674	-	1.92	1.86	2.68	1.1	2.4103	1.5792	1.2355	0.5057	0.3359	31.9%	140	28	117
2010-08-26	2010	4	5.52	4.2	0.075	5.79%	29.77%	114389	522949	18653	86116	11807	60740	0.0897	0.4616	356581	122250	-	234331	110181	26351	13584	64779	83830	70246	135025	131582	131582	536854	2010-06-30	51.90%	16.80%	16.31%	36.70%	1.4666	8.8386	1.78	1.73	2.36	1.18	2.3738	1.6863	1.3914	0.5217	0.3428	29.3%	107	23	77
2010-05-27	2010	3	4.16	3.6	-	8.46%	23.98%	139433	408560	23820	67463	17266	48933	0.1312	0.3719	343141	101005	-	242136	104031	14870	11457	64881	89161	77704	142585	131582	131582	473695	2010-03-31	48.37%	16.12%	17.08%	27.51%	1.4789	-	1.84	1.84	1.96	1.23	2.9041	2.1845	1.7983	0.4171	0.2944	33.9%	91	25	66
2010-02-25	2010	2	4.24	3.45	0.075	5.65%	15.52%	128395	269127	16613	43644	11521	31668	0.0876	0.2407	362863	137396	-	225467	80532	8011	3436	65328	72521	75957	141285	131582	131582	557907	2009-12-31	51.13%	15.12%	12.94%	30.65%	1.344	-	1.71	1.71	2.48	1.22	2.2557	1.5866	1.2809	0.6094	0.3786	32.3%	122	29	92
2009-11-25	2010	1	4.3	3.02	-	9.87%	9.87%	140732	140732	27031	27031	20147	20147	0.1531	0.1531	321140	97126	-	224014	45223	3948	4452	65485	41275	36823	102308	131582	131582	403956	2009-09-30	48.60%	20.19%	19.21%	25.47%	1.522	-	1.7	1.7	1.81	0.92	2.5568	1.7194	1.2887	0.4336	0.3024	30.0%	114	30	66
2009-08-27	2009	4	3.14	2.69	0.075	3.32%	29.23%	98918	477059	6572	67610	5633	49533	0.0428	0.3764	290720	86677	-	204043	62953	19442	290	22400	43511	43221	65621	131582	131582	355271	2009-06-30	46.89%	7.74%	6.64%	14.29%	1.641	7.1724	1.55	1.55	1.74	0.64	2.5159	1.4126	1.0155	0.4248	0.2981	26.5%	137	25	54
2009-05-28	2009	3	2.75	2.39	-	6.50%	25.90%	119638	378141	15453	61038	11022	43900	0.0838	0.3336	293175	86438	-	206737	44317	16680	6190	42569	27637	21447	64016	131582	131582	335534	2009-03-31	47.21%	11.00%	12.92%	28.67%	1.5779	-	1.57	1.57	1.62	0.63	2.5338	1.3708	0.9877	0.4181	0.2948	27.8%	150	25	56
2009-02-26	2009	2	2.68	2.23	0.06	8.71%	19.40%	129479	258503	20881	45585	14768	32878	0.1122	0.2499	319534	124415	-	195119	52292	16392	196	22275	35900	36096	58371	131582	131582	305270	2008-12-31	49.96%	17.96%	16.13%	29.28%	1.3958	-	1.48	1.48	1.57	0.59	1.9181	0.9404	0.6314	0.6376	0.3894	25.1%	195	31	104
2008-11-26	2009	1	2.55	1.97	-	10.69%	10.69%	129024	129024	24704	24704	18110	18110	0.1376	0.1376	295589	107462	-	188127	24416	6541	1864	22184	17875	16011	38195	131582	131582	257900	2008-09-30	50.63%	20.01%	19.15%	26.69%	1.418	-	1.43	1.43	1.37	0.43	2.0851	0.9409	0.5419	0.5712	0.3636	27.0%	209	35	107
2008-08-28	2008	4	2.57	1.7	0.08	1.18%	29.24%	84471	383306	3309	57659	1684	41715	0.0128	0.3170	264314	94836	-	169478	5166	34710	19555	51653	29544	9989	41664	131582	131582	331586	2008-06-30	45.99%	4.91%	3.92%	49.11%	1.4502	7.9489	1.29	1.29	1.95	0.32	2.0723	0.805	0.4547	0.5596	0.3588	25.6%	220	29	97
2008-05-29	2008	3	3.16	2.52	-	9.68%	28.06%	103027	298835	18978	54350	13814	40031	0.1050	0.3044	249790	72339	-	177451	22092	25451	1498	51576	3359	1861	49715	131582	131495	415799	2008-03-31	51.64%	17.02%	18.42%	27.15%	1.5016	-	1.35	1.35	2.34	0.38	2.6007	1.0445	0.7207	0.4077	0.2896	29.4%	209	21	94
2008-02-27	2008	2	3.44	3.12	0.1	10.28%	18.38%	102619	195808	19947	35372	14673	26217	0.1115	0.1994	263783	94687	328	169096	21887	18678	9034	51746	3209	12243	63989	131582	131495	457905	2007-12-31	52.15%	20.55%	19.44%	26.37%	1.3529	-	1.28	1.28	2.72	0.49	2.1518	1.05	0.7031	0.561	0.359	29.4%	202	32	134
2007-11-29	2008	1	3.58	2.82	-	8.09%	8.09%	93189	93189	15425	15425	11544	11544	0.0878	0.0878	227518	72818	337	154700	8124	3611	2848	52050	4513	7361	59411	131408	131408	366628	2007-09-30	48.70%	17.18%	16.55%	25.09%	1.4875	-	1.17	1.17	2.38	0.45	2.4993	1.3261	0.8633	0.4717	0.3201	30.5%	170	34	114
2007-08-30	2007	4	2.9	2.74	0.05	N/A	N/A	76260	317173	9254	44007	6064	31403	0.0924	0.4788	195734	53067	326	142667	43410	20324	15074	44086	23086	8012	52098	65644	65590	157545	2007-06-30	46.16%	10.72%	12.13%	34.36%	1.2529	5.0128	2.17	2.17	1.11	0.79	2.9172	1.6027	1.0694	0.3728	0.2711	38.1%	186	39	114
2007-05-30	2007	3	N/A	N/A	0.1	N/A	N/A	84814	240913	13510	34753	10013	25340	0.1529	0.3868	189997	48835	315	141162	26722	13457	7005	44095	13265	6260	50355	65505	65505	320974	2007-03-31	49.56%	16.41%	15.93%	25.81%	0.8894	-	2.15	2.15	2.28	0.77	3.1807	1.7565	1.1398	0.3467	0.257	57.0%	272	59	132
2007-02-27	2007	2	N/A	N/A	0.05	N/A	N/A	84166	156099	15717	21243	11604	15326	0.1781	0.2352	193527	60655	324	132872	22607	9938	2160	44249	12669	10509	54758	65164	65164	306270	2006-12-31	50.48%	19.37%	18.67%	26.09%	N/A	-	2.03	2.03	2.32	0.84	2.6339	1.4465	0.9839	0.4576	0.3134	N/A	-	N/A	N/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Available-for-sale investment (A-0)	Club membership (A-0)	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Intangible assets (A-0)	Investment properties (A-0)	Prepaid lease payments (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Current tax assets (A-1)	Financial assets at fair value through profit and loss (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Other receivables (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Dividend payable (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)	Provision for liabilities (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2012	3	560	124	1852	8258	2252	-	84220	144711	-	444	2356	213354	22459	14879	1388	19299	14367	-	39338	11170	5746	67765	-
2012	2	560	124	1721	8484	2331	-	85011	161988	-	563	351	228175	20317	29444	1392	19936	14024	-	41668	21596	5211	109431	-
2012	1	560	124	1741	6406	2333	-	86596	127604	-	479	347	213845	20270	20908	1724	20561	8886	-	17460	12044	5286	104814	-
2011	4	560	124	1545	6523	2212	-	83621	138622	-	402	342	170955	20582	18851	1564	22151	5901	13158	24948	13516	4490	75934	-
2011	3	560	124	2889	6648	1737	-	80735	139128	-	620	10272	154261	18417	14185	1121	18324	10606	-	23511	9602	8042	80994	-
2011	2	560	124	1979	6766	1771	-	84662	159771	-	519	10171	124245	18515	25199	635	8806	8741	-	37034	18422	4405	89813	-
2011	1	560	124	2085	6982	1778	-	85093	134999	-	417	9974	97525	22250	17652	1102	8999	7418	-	23736	11887	4832	69463	-
2010	4	560	124	1959	6991	1870	-	80753	135025	-	270	19914	76554	16442	16119	774	10125	6865	19738	26128	9965	3682	44973	-
2010	3	684	-	2500	-	1577	812	75521	142585	-	1	19683	64932	23959	10887	194	10576	12108	-	27805	7221	3444	39657	-
2010	2	684	-	2928	-	1652	856	73693	141285	-	-	19449	83958	21881	16477	194	11721	15682	9869	31685	13961	5156	49128	-
2010	1	684	-	2290	-	1677	875	74506	102308	-	-	19215	78972	22580	18033	194	2632	13125	-	32657	7098	2604	38816	-
2009	4	684	-	2047	-	1700	894	75887	65621	-	-	18945	91878	21757	11307	194	3210	8740	7895	28636	7880	1637	28485	-
2009	3	836	-	476	-	1842	931	76528	64016	-	2	18846	97561	19190	12947	21	2525	9104	-	37607	7569	870	28742	-
2009	2	836	-	1048	-	1766	891	80722	58371	-	41	18740	119416	20154	17549	20	2260	10598	7895	36089	17486	3523	46544	-
2009	1	836	-	618	-	1772	887	74264	38195	1147	219	18260	119195	19979	20217	20	3270	7970	-	33294	15182	1648	46078	-
2008	4	697	-	473	-	1681	845	70748	21796	1716	178	19868	116113	17880	12319	19	3195	4796	9737	25002	12970	1067	38050	-
2008	3	697	-	859	122	1713	-	66995	18574	-	278	31141	107353	13693	8365	41	3315	9351	-	10758	7828	593	40453	-
2008	2	697	-	1236	-	1722	-	64286	33237	-	215	30752	100279	15131	16228	38	3637	9255	-	13276	16388	2226	49867	328
2008	1	697	-	988	-	1731	-	52113	28923	-	35	30488	80736	13800	18007	37	3966	6449	-	7040	6685	1282	47359	337
2007	4	697	-	859	-	1740	-	50317	21866	-	33	30232	64041	12734	13215	39	4310	4753	-	3847	7406	828	31884	326
2007	3	697	-	1460	-	-	-	47327	20735	-	14	29620	62916	12974	14254	8	4650	4460	2391	4583	4794	2161	25788	315
2007	2	697	-	1362	-	-	-	44885	25517	-	14	29241	66081	12475	13255	8	4995	3997	4778	4587	5413	2920	33957	324

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Selling and distribution costs	Discontinued operation	Effects of FRS
2012	3	176006	7641	84924	649	1056	13237	-	46324	-	-
2012	2	202453	10317	103319	668	1675	11780	-	49493	-	-
2012	1	178115	9794	90163	472	1872	8114	-	44498	-	-
2011	4	132146	7287	65027	428	1269	7555	-	35042	-	-
2011	3	147960	8968	59174	321	1882	6288	-	50705	-	-
2011	2	141814	5780	71817	499	2113	18719	-	32628	-	-
2011	1	136641	7302	64311	254	1085	7818	-	39692	-	-
2010	4	114389	6846	55023	296	446	6277	-	34319	-	267
2010	3	139433	6554	71988	228	962	7742	-	38183	-	1566
2010	2	128395	5092	62745	290	1067	6885	-	40419	-	2510
2010	1	140732	6884	72332	315	1307	6516	-	34778	-	1067
2009	4	98918	939	52536	245	2569	7052	-	34244	-	838
2009	3	119638	4431	63162	397	1155	7592	-	36882	2	2695
2009	2	129479	6113	64788	484	1961	6770	-	36627	-	1890
2009	1	129024	6594	63698	399	1027	7128	-	31348	3	723
2008	4	84471	1625	45619	262	1492	11612	0	24584	4	581
2008	3	103027	5153	49822	228	1456	6261	11	30865	1	1670
2008	2	102619	5261	49104	154	878	6859	13	26448	2	983
2008	1	93189	3870	47808	125	530	6308	11	23589	2	462
2007	4	76260	3180	41060	187	1114	6898	10	21238	1	1264
2007	3	84814	3487	42779	36	1655	7545	10	22229	0	370
2007	2	84166	4100	41680	68	1150	5596	13	21737	6	512

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

---

●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

---

●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

---

●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 2

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to Christmas and Chinese New Year and additional contributions from the 4 new stores opened

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 325811*0.34/657910 = 0.1684, estimate PE on current price 1.39 = 7.78(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.19 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	842,124,160 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.28-0.04)/0.1258 = 9.86 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.26+0.04 = 1.30 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1258, DPS 0.04)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 34.8% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.4%), eps increased 49.1% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 47%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence spent 8.4% of Group cash for other expenses all together, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, largely increasing inventory can target to get higher sales
First Support Price	1.2
Second Support Price	1.1
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)
OSK Target Price	1.14 (2011-02-28)
Inter Pacific Target Price	1.21 (2011-05-31)
HwangDBS Target Price	1.4 (2011-11-04)
Maybank Target Price	1.16 (2011-11-30)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	29.30%
Dividend Yield	3.12%
Profit Margin	20.63%
Tax Rate	26.66%
Asset Turnover	1.2469
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.47
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.46
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.28
Cash Per Share	0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5823
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.1422
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8617
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5501
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3549
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	39.2%
Days to sell the inventory	239
Days to collect the receivables	25
Days to pay the payables	130

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.195 (Uptrend 45 days)
SMA 50	1.118 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	1.026 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	1.03 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.067194 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram	0.016652 (Uptrend 77 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 due mainly to the large increase in Revenues and to a relatively lower increase in operating expenses. The increase in Revenues had come from an expansion in our gross floor area under retail; in the period 01 October 2010 to 30 September 2011, 4 Brands Outlet stores and 2 Padini Concept Stores have been opened. The impact from the Brands Outlet revenues was particularly significant as sales of our own merchandise during the quarter under review rose 85.7% year-on-year. While the sales of our own products from the Brands Outlet stores made up about 11% of the total revenues of Q1 of the previous financial year, this figure had increased to more than 15% for Q1 this year however got drop in gross margins was primarily a consequence of the high cotton prices experienced since the start of the 2010 calendar year and this had the effect of driving up the costs of our merchandise. With our retail prices remaining more or less stable, our gross margins had declined

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 were primarily the result of the Hari Raya Aidilfitri and Merdeka Day sales promotions and events

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate PE on current price 1.28 = 9.86(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	690,804,975 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.05-0.04)/0.1258 = 8.03 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.26+0.04 = 1.30 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1258, DPS 0.04)
Decision	BUY if stock price next uptrend start above 0.97
Comment	Revenue increased 4.3% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.1%, eps increased 68.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.6%, cash generated from operating is around for financing expenses only hence increased loan for other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, largely increasing inventory can indicate target to get higher sales
First Support Price	1.0
Second Support Price	0.93
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)
OSK Target Price	1.14 (2011-02-28)
Inter Pacific Target Price	1.21 (2011-05-31)
Maybank Target Price	1.3 (2011-07-14)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	26.67%
Dividend Yield	3.81%
Profit Margin	19.19%
Tax Rate	28.73%
Asset Turnover	1.2554
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.43
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.42
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.12
Cash Per Share	0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.4009
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2286
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9487
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5762
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3655
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	36.6%
Days to sell the inventory	208
Days to collect the receivables	26
Days to pay the payables	110

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 due to an increased amount of promotional sales events but gross margins earned during the quarter under review have however declined by about 3%

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to previous quarter had been substantially boosted by the Chinese New Year festive shopping

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate PE on current price 1.05 = 8.03(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	723,700,450 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.1-0.04)/0.1241 = 8.54 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.37+0.04 = 1.41 (PE 11.0, EPS 0.1241, DPS 0.04)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 4.3% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.1%, eps increased 68.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.6%, cash generated from operating is around for financing expenses only hence increased loan for other expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, inventory and payables ratio still high
First Support Price	1.08
Second Support Price	1.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	0.95 (2010-11-30)
ECM Target Price	1.07 (2010-12-28)
BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	25.67%
Dividend Yield	10.45%
Profit Margin	22.54%
Tax Rate	26.89%
Asset Turnover	1.2589
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.42
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.41
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.63
Cash Per Share	0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.5376
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2983
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.048
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5487
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3543
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	37.7%
Days to sell the inventory	207
Days to collect the receivables	22
Days to pay the payables	114

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Increase in revenues was driven primarily by our Brands Outlet operations, the much improved Profit before Taxation was the result of a substantial rise in the gross profit margins earned. This improvement in the gross margins earned was mainly attributable to the higher overall sell-through rates achieved by most of the merchandise sold during the quarter concerned

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate PE on current price 1.1 = 8.54(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	736,858,640 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.12-0.03)/0.0851 = 12.81 (High)
Target Price	0.85+0.03 = 0.88 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0851, DPS 0.03)
Decision	NOT BUY unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter, eps same with revenue, got free and positive net cash flow, moderate liquidity ratio, moderate gearing ratio, inventory and payables period increased, number of stores increasing, raw material like cotton rising
First Support Price	1.1
Second Support Price	0.98
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	0.95 (2010-11-30)
ECM Target Price	1.07 (2010-12-28)
BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	24.56%
Dividend Yield	15.18%
Profit Margin	18.77%
Tax Rate	28.47%
Asset Turnover	1.3674
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.92
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.68
Cash Per Share	1.1
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.4103
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.5792
Liquidity Cash Ratio	1.2355
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5057
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3359
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	31.9%
Days to sell the inventory	126
Days to collect the receivables	28
Days to pay the payables	105

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Revenues for the quarter under review were RM136.6 million and Profit before Taxation was RM25.6 million. These were respectively 3% and 5% less than the same achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter

- The reduction in Revenues could be attributed to the shorter Hari Raya Aidilfitri shopping season of 2010. In 2009, Ramadan ended on 19th September, whereas in 2010, the month ended on 9th September. The relatively larger decline in Profit before Taxation however had resulted from increased expenses arising out of an expanded distribution network. In the 12 months ended 30th September 2010, the Group had opened 7 new outlets, closed 2, and added nearly 62,000 square feet to the gross floor area for retailing in Malaysia. As awareness for the new stores improves, we expect sales revenues to rise and contribute to future profitability

- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had increased by RM22.2 million or 19%. The increase was due to the month long carnival sales season that accompanied the Merdeka and Hari Raya festive celebrations occurring during the quarter under review. Profit before Taxation for the quarter considered also increased by nearly RM7million (37%). Profit before Taxation had risen quite substantially quarter-on-quarter because of the smaller percentage increase (11%) in operating expenses over the same periods considered

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate PE on current price 1.12 = 12.81(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

PADINI latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2010 Quarter 4

Market Cap : 131581900*4.8 = 631,593,120 (Medium)
NTA per share : (243974-6992)/131582 = 1.8
P/BV : 4.8/1.8 = 2.6667
Forecast P/E now : (4.8-0.15)/0.4639 = 10.02 (High)
ROE : 24.9% (High)
DY : 0.15/4.8*100 = 3.13% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.5109+1.641+1.4502+1.6204)/4 = 1.5556 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 253850/91622 = 2.7706 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (31952+33064)/2/(522949/365) = 22 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.64+0.15 = 4.79 (PE 10, EPS 0.4639, DPS 0.15)
My Decision : NOT BUY unless price below 4.5
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, strong cash, below moderate debt, navps slightly increasing, number of stores increasing
Technical Support Price : 4.4
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.65 (07 Oct 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):

- Revenues for the quarter under review were up 15.6% from the amounts achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter. Gross margins earned during the quarter were also higher at 51.9% (against 46.9% in the same quarter last year), and coupled with the increased revenues. Profit before taxation also rose in tandem, a hefty year-on-year increase of 183.8%

- On a 12-month basis, the Group had managed to achieve an overall increase of 9.6% in revenues, and a 27.4% increase in Profit Before Taxation when compared to those of the previous financial year. The bigger relative increase in the Profit Before Taxation had come about because during the current year, operating expenses had grown less quickly than revenues; the healthy gross margin of 50% also contributed to the robust growth in the bottom line

- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had declined by 18%. This large decline was expected considering that the previous quarter had been strongly boosted by an extended Chinese New Year season. The large reduction in revenues experienced in the quarter under review had also caused a reduced gross profit amount, which subsequently resulted in the Profit Before Taxation for the quarter considered being 21.7% less than that earned in the previous quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate PE on current price 4.8 = 10.02(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news (English)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2010 Quarter 3

Market Cap : 131581900*3.67 = 482,905,573 (Small)
NTA per share : 242136/131582 = 1.84
P/BV : 3.67/1.84 = 1.9946
Forecast P/E now : (3.67-0.15)/0.4074 = 8.64 (Moderate)
ROE : 22.97% (High)
DY : 0.15/3.67*100 = 4.09% (Moderate)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.4789+1.5779+1.5016)/3 = 1.5195 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 262047/90235 = 2.9041 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (34846+32137)/2/(507478/365) = 24 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.07+0.075 = 4.15 (PE 10, EPS 0.4074, DPS 0.15)
My Decision : BUY
My Comment : Revenue and profit increased, good cash flow, debt decreased, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.45, 3
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.65 (31 May 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 3 report (number in '000):
- Revenues for the quarter under review up 16.5% from the amounts achieved in the previous year’s corresponding quarter. Gross margins earned during the quarter were also marginally higher at 48.4%, and coupled with the increased revenues, caused gross profits for the quarter reviewed to rise by nearly RM11 million year-on-year. Profit before taxation also rose in tandem of 54.1%. The greatly improved performance was attributed mainly to the extended Chinese New Year shopping season available in 2010. With the Chinese New Year Day falling on the 14th of February in 2010 as opposed to 26th January in 2009, the additional 3 weeks of festive shopping contributed significantly to higher revenues
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate PE on current price 3.67 = 8.64(DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate PE on current price 3.88 = 9.34(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news from The Edge (English)

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2010 Quarter 2

Market Cap : 131581900*3.88 = 510,537,772 (Small)
NTA per share : 225467/131528 = 1.71
P/BV : 3.88/1.71 = 2.269
Forecast P/E now : (3.88-0.075)/0.4074 = 9.34 (Moderate)
ROE : 22.14% (High)
DY : 0.075/3.88*100 = 1.93% (Low)
Fixed Asset Turnover(3 year) : (1.344+1.3958+1.3529)/3 = 1.3642 (High)
Liquidity Ratio : 283050/125481 = 2.2557 (Moderate)
Receivables Collection Period : (38358+37703)/2/(487683/365) = 28 days (Good)
My Target Price : 4.07+0.075 = 4.15 (PE 10, EPS 0.4074, DPS 0.075)
My Decision : NOT BUY (unless price below 3.8)
My Comment : Revenue growing but ratio slow down, good cash flow, high debt and increasing, navps increasing
Technical Support Price : 3.77, 3.7
Risk Rating : MODERATE
OSK Target Price : 4.25 (01 Mar 10)

My notes based on 2010 quarter 2 report (number in '000):
- Revenues for the quarter under review declined year-on-year by 0.8%. Gross margins however rose by nearly 1.2% to 51.1% over the same quarters, causing absolute gross profits to improve by about 1.5%. With Chinese New Year in 2010 falling late in February, retail buying in December of 2009 had been fairly sluggish as most consumers deferred their spending in preference for newer merchandise that would be offered during the Jan / Feb months of the new year. It is noted that though total revenues fell, the fall was caused actually by a drop in the value of exports, from about RM12.2 million in the same quarter last year to RM8.55 million this year. If the fall in exports was taken out, it can be seen that domestic sales had actually risen by about RM2.6 million year-on-year
- Profit before taxation for the current quarter on the other hand fell about 20.4% year-on-year and this reduction was caused primarily by operating expenses for the current quarter rising by 9.3% from those incurred in the previous year’s same quarter. The bulk of this increase arose from increased spending for advertising & promotion, rentals, depreciation, yearly bonuses, and for the increased provisions made for loyalty points to be awarded to our card members
- Compared to the previous quarter, revenue for the quarter under review had declined by 8.8%. This decline can be attributed to firstly the current quarter being affected by the longer Chinese New Year season occurring in 2010, and secondly to the exceptionally robust sales that had resulted from the Merdeka mega sales and the Hari Raya festive shopping which fell within the previous quarter. Despite the higher gross margins earned during the quarter reviewed, its profit before taxation fell by 38.5% when compared to the same made in the previous quarter. This decline is primarily attributed to the reduced gross profits earned, as well as to an increase in operating expenses and provisions made for loyalty points
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate PE on current price 3.88 = 9.34(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

PADINI latest news from The Edge (English)