KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 4

UMW HOLDINGS BERHAD



Company Description

UMW HOLDINGS BERHAD is an international conglomerate that develops industries and manages partnerships. The Company is primarily engaged in the import, assembly and marketing of passenger and commercial vehicles, and related spares and manufacturing of original/replacement automotive parts; trading and manufacturing of a range of light and heavy equipment, including related spares for use in the industrial, construction, agricultural sectors, and manufacturing and trading of oil pipes and providing various oil and gas services, including drilling and pipe-coating. It also provides support services in the form of after-sales service, travel and insurance. Other activities include marketing of a range of established agency lines in the automotive field, and rebuilding and repair of heavy equipment and diesel engines. In November 2008, it acquired UMW Malaysian Ventures Sdn Bhd. In January 2009, the Company closed business operations of UMW Auto Parts (Thailand) Co, Ltd.

Company Info

Listing Date	1970-11-17
Market Capital (Capital Size)	9,147,741,487 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50
Board	Main
Sector	Consumer Products
Major Industry	Automotive Manufacturing & Distribution
Sub Industry	Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Website	http://www.umw.com.my

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(7.83-0.031)/0.5745 = 13.58 (Moderate)
Target Price	8.04+0.031 = 8.07 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5745, DPS 0.031)
Decision	BUY if stock price drop to below SMA20 and got strong buy volume than sell or wait until near to Bolinger lower band
Comment	Revenue decreased 5.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.1%, eps decreased 70% but higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 169.1%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 0.2% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at high level now, slightly lower debt ratio but still near to historical high, all repayment period is good, higher inventory can indicate still good prospect from Automotive segment, O&G segment growth and got turnaround from loss
First Support Price	7.45
Second Support Price	7.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
ECM Target Price	7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price	6.9 (2011-11-25)
Affin Target Price	7.25 (2012-01-12)
MIDF Target Price	7 (2012-02-27)
CIMB Target Price	7.2 (2012-03-05)
Kenanga Target Price	7.45 (2012-03-28)
HwangDBS Target Price	7.3 (2012-03-29)
AMMB Target Price	7.3 (2012-04-02)
HLG Target Price	8.25 (2012-04-02)
RHB Target Price	7.3 (2012-04-05)
OSK Target Price	8.38 (2012-04-16)
TA Target Price	8.54 (2012-04-18)
Maybank Target Price	8.35 (2012-04-23)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.01%
Dividend Yield	3.96%
Gross Profit Margin	0.00%
Operating Profit Margin	8.17%
Net Profit Margin	9.08%
Tax Rate	42.91%
Asset Turnover	1.294
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.65
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.01
Cash Per Share	2.23
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8463
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3329
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9054
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.1476
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.467
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	17.9%
Days to sell the inventory	44
Days to collect the receivables	33
Days to pay the payables	56

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	7.481 (Uptrend 44 days)
SMA 50	7.264 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.953 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	6.721 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	0.144091 ( 0.009925 )
Signal (9)	0.113676 ( 0.007604 )
MACD Histogram	0.030415 (Bullish trend 12 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 was from Equipment and O&G segment but higher pbt was from Automotive segment

- Lower revenue in Automotive segment due to disruptions in the supply of critical parts caused by the massive floods in Thailand. This had adversely affected the timely delivery of certain Toyota models to customers but got higher profit due to favorable exchange rates for USD, lower selling and distribution expenses for run-out models and increase in sales volume of Perodua vehicles

- Higher loss in Equipment segment due to substantial provision for a maintenance and repair contract of an overseas subsidiary

- O&G segment got turnaround from loss to profit but unfavorable movement in fair value of overseas quoted investments coupled with impairment of certain assets and investments results the loss

- Lower revenue in Manufacturing & Engineering segment than FY10Q4 mainly due to switching of the power steering system from hydraulic for certain new models that included the new Perodua Myvi. Sales of 4-wheeler absorbers also dropped with car assemblers expanding their sourcing to countries like Indonesia and Thailand but still higher profit due to in FY2010 got provision for incidental expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 5584182*0.12/1166472 = 0.5745, estimate PE on current price 7.83 = 13.58(DPS 0.31)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.58/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

UMW latest news (English)

UMW latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-02-24	2011	4	N/A	N/A	0.075	0.91%	9.01%	3477333	13556405	315568	1381241	50807	502986	0.0436	0.4312	10476742	4892560	1320918	5584182	1317601	550433	770573	2143253	767168	3405	2139848	1166472	1166472	8141974	2011-12-31	-	8.17%	9.08%	42.91%	1.294	16.1873	3.65	3.48	2.01	2.23	1.8463	1.3329	0.9054	1.1476	0.467	17.9%	44	33	56
2011-11-24	2011	3	7.11	6.38	0.135	3.07%	8.20%	3691437	10079072	414154	1065673	169169	452179	0.1451	0.3879	10568696	5052559	1204949	5516137	1156915	422681	660821	2138474	734234	73413	2211887	1165858	1165858	7869541	2011-09-30	-	10.60%	11.22%	27.47%	1.279	-	3.7	3.48	1.94	2.28	1.7738	1.2879	0.8831	1.172	0.4781	17.2%	43	32	60
2011-08-19	2011	2	9.0	6.14	0.1	2.37%	5.11%	3166475	6387635	311981	651519	131178	283010	0.1126	0.2430	10190901	4653159	1259705	5537742	747943	68757	439655	2130257	679186	239531	2369788	1164620	1164620	8408556	2011-06-30	-	9.32%	9.85%	28.60%	1.2671	-	3.67	3.45	2.09	2.21	1.9271	1.434	0.9896	1.0877	0.4566	18.7%	40	32	55
2011-05-25	2011	1	7.55	6.75	-	2.72%	2.72%	3221160	3221160	339538	339538	151832	151832	0.1306	0.1306	10033589	4443296	1356464	5590293	258839	97746	259242	2129907	356585	97343	2227250	1162358	1162358	8310859	2011-03-31	-	9.62%	10.54%	23.47%	1.2985	-	3.64	3.42	2.09	2.0	2.0035	1.4149	0.9616	1.0495	0.4428	18.6%	44	30	51
2011-02-24	2010	4	7.43	6.95	0.065	0.35%	9.73%	3438131	12840639	224656	1312938	18451	512398	0.0162	0.4486	10041117	4774106	1239918	5267011	1001795	717262	174109	1672119	284533	458642	2130761	1142286	1142286	8110230	2010-12-31	-	6.50%	6.53%	44.82%	1.2788	15.828	3.53	3.3	2.15	2.12	1.7739	1.2728	0.8705	1.1855	0.4755	16.8%	44	32	50
2010-11-22	2010	3	7.72	6.74	0.135	2.83%	9.36%	3087276	9402508	340922	1088282	149394	493947	0.1311	0.4336	9630868	4353161	1150902	5277707	745534	555735	132108	1675854	189799	57691	1733545	1139185	1139185	7746458	2010-09-30	-	9.62%	11.04%	23.09%	1.287	-	3.62	3.37	2.02	1.6	1.7844	1.1918	0.7586	1.0549	0.452	15.2%	47	30	53
2010-08-20	2010	2	7.03	6.41	0.1	3.96%	6.44%	3282075	6315232	442266	747360	211697	344553	0.1862	0.3031	9715760	4363227	1233092	5352533	582156	386197	78581	1697557	195959	274540	1972097	1136858	1136858	7309996	2010-06-30	-	12.11%	13.48%	22.45%	1.2459	-	3.62	3.37	1.91	1.8	1.8813	1.3094	0.8769	1.0592	0.4491	17.0%	45	30	53
2010-05-20	2010	1	6.45	6.09	-	2.55%	2.55%	3033157	3033157	305094	305094	132856	132856	0.1172	0.1172	9169023	3961109	1236022	5207914	203519	142763	67470	1696520	60756	128226	1824746	1133984	1133984	7019360	2010-03-31	-	9.14%	10.06%	23.87%	1.2438	-	3.5	3.27	1.89	1.65	2.092	1.433	0.9511	0.9973	0.432	18.8%	45	30	52
2010-02-23	2009	4	6.69	6.11	0.09	2.26%	7.77%	2992338	10720861	249125	846504	111068	382395	0.0998	0.3436	8825696	3905928	1145909	4919768	770356	803414	220797	1511281	33058	187739	1699020	1112928	1112928	6877895	2009-12-31	-	8.87%	8.33%	27.49%	1.2147	17.9864	3.39	3.17	1.95	1.56	2.0011	1.3386	0.8809	1.035	0.4426	18.4%	48	31	54
2009-11-20	2009	3	6.51	5.9	0.05	2.64%	5.68%	2797651	7728523	288174	597379	125938	271327	0.1135	0.2446	8623000	3846980	1079726	4776020	581299	555287	343294	1530218	26012	369306	1899524	1109415	1109415	7000408	2009-09-30	-	8.59%	10.30%	21.92%	1.2314	-	3.33	3.11	2.03	1.74	1.916	1.3203	0.8826	1.0408	0.4461	18.9%	48	33	60
2009-08-21	2009	2	6.5	6.0	0.06	1.71%	3.13%	2581069	4930872	185468	309205	79431	145389	0.0719	0.1315	7928328	3289767	1055663	4638561	328877	436079	86196	1525264	107202	193398	1331866	1105336	1105336	6797816	2009-06-30	-	7.03%	7.19%	22.70%	1.406	-	3.24	3.05	2.02	1.22	1.5743	1.0121	0.5876	0.9182	0.4149	11.9%	46	32	55
2009-05-20	2009	1	6.3	5.4	-	1.39%	1.39%	2349803	2349803	123737	123737	65958	65958	0.0598	0.0598	7811745	3076878	1123183	4734867	52698	134270	3089	1528205	81572	84661	1443544	1102765	1102765	6396037	2009-03-31	-	3.86%	5.27%	20.65%	1.5533	-	3.28	3.07	1.89	1.34	1.6622	1.0692	0.6417	0.8519	0.3939	12.5%	44	29	51
2009-02-25	2008	4	5.95	4.98	0.12	2.60%	12.29%	2890116	12769581	275008	1276685	119688	565838	0.1087	0.5141	7828041	3222621	1083167	4605420	597289	728099	89192	1561317	130810	41618	1519699	1100610	1100610	5998324	2008-12-31	-	8.09%	9.52%	23.58%	1.6313	10.6008	3.2	3.08	1.77	1.4	1.6099	1.0148	0.6295	0.9149	0.4117	11.7%	45	27	52
2008-11-24	2008	3	5.7	4.82	0.1	3.47%	10.13%	3326175	9879465	353781	1001677	152656	446150	0.1403	0.4101	7573806	3170246	993374	4403560	490595	546146	61443	1557570	55551	5892	1563462	1087895	1087895	5874633	2008-09-30	-	8.88%	10.64%	26.36%	1.6596	-	3.13	3.01	1.79	1.45	1.5674	1.0248	0.6287	0.9296	0.4186	11.3%	43	29	51
2008-08-20	2008	2	6.2	5.2	0.15	3.45%	6.68%	3568164	6553290	354998	647896	151724	293494	0.1393	0.2695	7430018	3033768	1056876	4396250	214837	277622	133350	1564740	62785	70565	1635305	1089192	1089192	6371773	2008-06-30	-	8.60%	9.95%	27.15%	1.6168	-	3.07	3.0	1.95	1.51	1.622	1.0695	0.6578	0.9085	0.4083	13.0%	46	31	55
2008-05-23	2008	1	6.85	5.5	-	3.34%	3.34%	2985126	2985126	292898	292898	141770	141770	0.1300	0.1300	6781517	2534424	967399	4247093	77574	84837	57357	1566066	162411	219768	1346298	1090917	1090917	7254598	2008-03-31	-	7.96%	9.81%	22.66%	1.6146	-	3.01	2.94	2.26	1.23	1.7469	1.1254	0.6355	0.7728	0.3737	14.5%	47	34	56
2008-02-28	2007	4	7.0	5.7	0.14	3.57%	11.70%	2689765	9976151	315566	856276	142968	469147	0.2684	0.8809	6491145	2482601	878459	4008544	926996	594818	91924	1143121	332178	424102	1567223	532598	532598	3621666	2007-12-31	-	9.97%	11.73%	26.88%	1.5369	7.7197	5.88	5.77	1.18	2.95	1.7021	1.1766	0.7594	0.7931	0.3825	14.6%	43	31	58
2007-11-15	2007	3	15.6	6.8	0.12	3.70%	8.67%	2769714	7286386	232618	540710	139119	326179	0.2630	0.6166	6068081	2305033	857149	3763048	662984	570474	237995	1140252	92510	330505	1470757	528987	528987	7934805	2007-09-30	-	5.76%	8.40%	17.38%	1.6264	-	5.49	5.43	2.76	2.79	1.8946	1.3964	0.8217	0.7932	0.3799	16.3%	35	37	51
2007-08-17	2007	2	15.0	14.3	0.2	2.95%	5.16%	2504658	4516672	167826	308092	106752	187060	0.2025	0.3548	5849076	2224424	851603	3624652	320890	329586	224279	1141747	8696	215583	1357330	527217	527217	3479632	2007-06-30	-	4.01%	6.70%	13.15%	1.2138	-	5.26	5.2	1.27	2.59	2.0136	1.3846	0.8069	0.8022	0.3803	24.2%	58	49	70
2007-05-16	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	2.28%	2.28%	2012014	2012014	140266	140266	80308	80308	0.1535	0.1535	5595233	2066534	855078	3528699	233183	284463	330840	1141663	51280	279560	1421223	523237	523237	2825479	2007-03-31	-	5.07%	6.97%	21.13%	0.8212	-	5.11	5.05	1.07	2.73	2.236	1.5702	0.9862	0.7729	0.3693	39.0%	82	66	91
2007-02-27	2006	4	N/A	N/A	0.135	2.71%	9.03%	2582897	9950488	197990	754281	91847	305904	0.1797	0.5986	5102524	1715666	826796	3386858	76653	568395	69643	1699125	491742	561385	1137740	511004	511004	1967365	2006-12-31	-	6.67%	7.67%	23.82%	0.5062	6.4313	5.01	4.97	0.77	2.25	2.269	1.569	0.8768	0.6702	0.3362	64.4%	139	126	158

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Deferred tax assets (A-0)	Derivative assets (A-0)	Intangible assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Investment properties (A-0)	Leased assets (A-0)	Leasehold land use rights (A-0)	Other investments (A-0)	Property, plant and equipment (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Derivative assets (A-1)	Inventories (A-1)	Land lease payment (A-1)	Other investments (A-1)	Other receivables (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Derivative liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Other long-term provisions (L-0)	Bank overdraf (L-1)	Current tax liabilities (L-1)	Derivative liabilities (L-1)	Dividend payable (L-1)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)	Provision for liabilities (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2011	4	53214	62261	199415	1414565	79506	226981	4771	55297	3078809	2208535	-	5171	1474299	-	391271	329178	893469	31998	14211	1910418	64347	68687	94042	6671	157720	589548	949935	67503	937480	1320918
2011	3	56062	57132	255570	1471547	80002	210967	4811	57777	3032010	2280976	-	34469	1463643	-	379049	349333	835348	31557	20301	1924293	64317	69089	134732	42358	116829	559546	951024	68788	1069725	1204949
2011	2	54011	63747	255573	1456015	80497	199366	4851	92636	2966027	2436916	2042	6973	1283923	-	140000	333164	815160	31556	21032	1931701	64851	67128	121718	4920	75939	511684	902214	50319	870097	1259705
2011	1	54091	74773	258480	1489765	80993	195969	4890	131570	2910664	2308347	6839	3785	1419627	-	11071	370528	712197	32099	18408	1915941	64862	81097	92632	7359	-	536065	781708	50235	862890	1356464
2010	4	58585	63746	258489	1453059	81488	193998	4931	132463	2852305	2195051	6839	4897	1396135	-	229963	359480	749688	43727	21255	1858199	65016	64189	107553	4883	156647	761046	771455	81294	838842	1239918
2010	3	29667	49158	288883	1559957	1655	180355	17688	415860	2799760	1822946	3535	6403	1424064	-	-	307025	723912	19578	24973	1846161	59520	89401	171606	12263	114771	361720	712791	39811	900566	1150902
2010	2	27192	36066	286407	1533463	1666	172844	18927	324905	2923323	2046585	3535	4351	1334953	-	-	263878	737665	19710	23268	1926755	59532	74488	151512	3977	102356	383769	757622	40630	819608	1233092
2010	1	31328	25081	268733	1503513	1710	167113	20164	181052	2855183	1870944	3535	14332	1296294	-	-	272167	657874	23085	16993	1894412	59544	46198	89951	22478	-	288524	700565	40332	779027	1236022
2009	4	26733	-	241498	1453676	1714	169940	20333	193580	2780553	1733290	3535	-	1303573	-	-	255390	641881	22107	-	1850598	65488	34270	71732	-	56204	259874	719874	64183	761598	1145909
2009	3	26035	-	242899	1473182	14078	149673	218452	225881	2085633	1928852	3535	-	1301805	-	-	289306	663669	21263	-	1597353	42986	29328	98456	-	66510	315611	888400	59057	728016	1079726
2009	2	24988	-	211893	1494709	14180	149198	219522	208401	1978044	1353857	3535	-	1295479	-	-	293129	681393	15680	-	926993	42986	21991	77599	-	123484	406385	836360	106047	732242	1055663
2009	1	19886	-	226968	1526218	14282	148826	207761	22280	1825932	1474526	3535	-	1362700	-	-	289648	689183	23713	-	733491	21742	30982	62469	-	-	536548	814256	109138	744539	1123183
2008	4	21331	-	132906	1468121	14384	157899	221660	86293	1792362	1537802	3535	-	1453830	-	-	254611	683307	16027	-	719517	43995	18103	115931	-	82063	509851	920324	66620	730190	1083167
2008	3	22802	-	139420	1412903	13881	148680	209899	123095	1580594	1573364	2791	-	1357956	-	-	235439	752982	19792	-	625988	21971	9902	208612	-	120813	457540	843675	99050	762903	993374
2008	2	23258	-	69746	1278350	13983	137791	210969	135589	1494731	1648884	9112	-	1384991	-	-	288503	734111	21037	-	484247	21972	13579	190565	-	112082	418848	809750	100361	861327	1056876
2008	1	15835	-	74281	1215902	14081	124590	212038	114171	1307310	1347177	10364	-	1317572	-	-	245465	782731	13588	-	378905	21972	879	128032	-	-	340407	654539	96528	899574	967399
2007	4	22139	-	58923	1164154	14178	137099	213107	76171	1278355	1573587	10364	-	1088941	-	-	221520	632607	13435	-	354163	42857	6364	104359	-	47811	375672	658924	49909	829107	878459
2007	3	27112	-	33931	1014091	14425	121798	186845	69022	1198931	1475533	14989	-	894592	4872	-	373431	638509	35786	-	451464	22178	4776	53762	-	77791	283737	630514	65816	679209	857149
2007	2	23354	-	33765	945474	14477	112074	188063	25627	1097155	1366162	14989	-	1064941	4872	-	307896	650227	35787	-	472679	22899	8832	60720	-	51895	218868	653009	69681	630054	851603
2007	1	22674	-	33612	900197	14529	111921	192935	25436	1052102	1429798	14989	-	965256	1218	-	293973	536593	36154	-	558324	22197	8575	60505	-	37988	197249	523010	68832	553700	855078
2006	4	26724	-	21582	822692	14581	119060	195371	25436	904208	1148784	14989	-	917234	-	-	368431	523432	36442	-	342412	26626	7118	56079	-	-	145555	697693	55744	347997	826796

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates	Investment gain/loss
2011	4	3477333	135425	24635	51362	3244525	129336	47812	8221
2011	3	3691437	113750	20355	19098	3319385	131235	21056	22303
2011	2	3166475	89234	21261	16856	2888336	91569	19827	18420
2011	1	3221160	79692	20780	36740	2948076	108014	36961	13533
2010	4	3438131	100680	22302	25085	3239840	105525	10897	12685
2010	3	3087276	78723	10050	47987	2838411	112805	40927	13193
2010	2	3282075	99272	14846	25250	2909800	131297	49066	10521
2010	1	3033157	72826	11356	93301	2849116	99412	30522	8586
2009	4	2992338	68476	5869	42061	2768910	69581	19361	8866
2009	3	2797651	63157	2770	25422	2582758	99079	43010	7619
2009	2	2581069	42104	16017	25425	2425014	63933	12623	7382
2009	1	2349803	25555	10143	20958	2280144	32224	34366	8897
2008	4	2890116	64853	19574	50182	2706613	90467	48253	12644
2008	3	3326175	93274	9868	27911	3058706	107851	54256	14013
2008	2	3568164	96372	9973	30561	3291897	106902	45566	12577
2008	1	2985126	66373	8724	20094	2767462	84755	51747	12117
2007	4	2689765	84825	5858	31363	2452900	87773	37959	15237
2007	3	2769714	40439	9750	24178	2634261	53060	68680	14057
2007	2	2504658	22070	9846	21875	2426144	39004	63398	13885
2007	1	2012014	29632	9851	16478	1926472	30326	37469	10628
2006	4	2582897	47164	4457	19337	2429991	58979	21897	8307

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue

year	qrt	Others	Elimination/Adjustment	Automotive	Equipment	Oil & Gas	Manufacturing & Engineering
2011	4	15869	11862	2418267	531468	351240	172351
2011	3	21333	36170	2616123	631416	295067	163668
2011	2	26982	25879	2232586	472465	286017	174304
2011	1	16705	21781	2433914	437750	194005	160567
2010	4	19374	22719	2610685	422936	223538	184317
2010	3	15785	16529	2368797	409454	162310	147459
2010	2	19889	23372	2563756	406810	151059	163933
2010	1	18240	21663	2398305	350361	142390	145524
2009	4	11178	19361	2373085	295256	156051	153222
2009	3	9604	15134	2232076	297328	144416	129361
2009	2	13388	20135	2023888	282071	170303	111554
2009	1	15880	19961	1721254	300796	217101	114733
2008	4	16924	21862	2177232	343760	269810	132489
2008	3	19951	29841	2588042	422494	196615	128914
2008	2	27315	34436	2870748	427677	156864	119996
2008	1	14971	27397	2395985	345678	147268	108621
2007	4	29284	21616	2237575	308095	23394	101691
2007	3	8692	17480	2141251	372564	159424	105263
2007	2	19842	26416	1860233	384796	170930	95273
2007	1	9427	24966	1499961	306017	85199	136376
2006	4	8143	12471	1874489	262312	342625	96198

Financial Quarter Segments Profit

year	qrt	Others	Automotive	Equipment	Oil & Gas	Manufacturing & Engineering
2011	4	66130	480093	44717	189857	3919
2011	3	28784	437131	35579	22220	7552
2011	2	10500	303874	38233	23304	3678
2011	1	30265	330200	34120	534	4949
2010	4	37639	329580	1667	129075	3633
2010	3	24720	329134	35734	12803	13577
2010	2	1677	400200	42516	19316	17189
2010	1	34059	319105	27316	19234	11966
2009	4	11017	236102	21669	14454	7275
2009	3	17250	213294	22264	24849	4229
2009	2	14928	127826	22627	19035	3670
2009	1	7748	73338	22772	5036	2839
2008	4	4684	238474	36966	4705	16710
2008	3	29048	265387	39256	11053	631
2008	2	12515	291292	39331	3098	1485
2008	1	9154	208195	38558	2837	8339
2007	4	10005	224203	5570	45439	12455
2007	3	2180	124968	11276	23513	7216
2007	2	8297	64072	9428	56504	839
2007	1	1941	65188	31323	2374	9019
2006	4	11	87122	31214	81474	15385

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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ARCHIVES

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KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,294,886,917 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(7.1-0.165)/0.5412 = 12.81 (Moderate)
Target Price	7.58+0.165 = 7.74 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5412, DPS 0.165)
Decision	BUY if Bolinger upper band open or stock price near to SMA20 and buying volume stronger than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 16.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.6%, eps increased 28.9% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 10.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, Automotive and Equipment division largely growth
First Support Price	6.8
Second Support Price	6.3
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
CIMB Target Price	8 (2011-07-19)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.55 (2011-07-19)
AMMB Target Price	6.5 (2011-07-29)
Kenanga Target Price	7.06 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price	6.36 (2011-08-22)
MIDF Target Price	7 (2011-09-09)
OSK Target Price	6.29 (2011-10-12)
ECM Target Price	7 (2011-11-25)
UOB Target Price	6.9 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price	6.1 (2011-12-23)
Affin Target Price	7.25 (2012-01-12)
RHB Target Price	6.2 (2012-01-18)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	8.55%
Dividend Yield	4.23%
Profit Margin	11.22%
Tax Rate	27.47%
Asset Turnover	1.279
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.7
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.48
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.94
Cash Per Share	2.28
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.7738
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2879
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8831
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.172
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4781
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	17.2%
Days to sell the inventory	43
Days to collect the receivables	23
Days to pay the payables	60

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	6.834 (Uptrend 6 days)
SMA 50	6.443 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.418 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	6.512 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.095778 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram	0.053385 (Uptrend 18 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to swift production of Automotive and Equipment segments recovery from the impact of the Japan tsunami, premium jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3, coupled with the higher day-rate from Naga 1, a semi-submersible rig, contributed to the higher revenue in the oil & gas segment

- Higher pbt due to higher sales of both Toyota and Perodua vehicles and favourable exchange rate for the USD

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.1126+0.1451)*2*1.05 = 0.5412, estimate PE on current price 7.1 = 12.81(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.16/12.28 (DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,400,033,371 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(7.19-0.165)/0.4864 = 14.44 (High)
Target Price	6.81+0.165 = 6.97 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4864, DPS 0.165)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 7.4
Comment	Revenue decreased 1.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.5%, eps decreased 13.8% and also lower than preceding year coorresponding quarter 39.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, profit from automotive division dropped 10% and O&G still loss
First Support Price	7.1
Second Support Price	6.75
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
OSK Target Price	6.6 (2011-06-16)
CIMB Target Price	8 (2011-07-19)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.55 (2011-07-19)
Maybank Target Price	7.2 (2011-07-19)
AMMB Target Price	6.5 (2011-07-29)
ECM Target Price	8.16 (2011-08-22)
Kenanga Target Price	7.06 (2011-08-22)
TA Target Price	6.36 (2011-08-22)
MIDF Target Price	7 (2011-08-23)
RHB Target Price	7.35 (2011-09-07)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.29%
Dividend Yield	4.17%
Profit Margin	9.85%
Tax Rate	28.60%
Asset Turnover	1.2671
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.67
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.09
Cash Per Share	2.21
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.9271
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.434
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9896
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0877
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4566
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.7%
Days to sell the inventory	39
Days to collect the receivables	32
Days to pay the payables	54

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue due to disruptions in Toyota vehicle production following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and lower sales of Perodua. Longer lead time in new vehicle registration arising from the amendments to the Hire Purchase Act

- Lower pbt due to lower sales and unfavourable movements in fair value of hedging instruments and a quoted investment also contributed to the profit shortfall

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1126+0.1306)*2 = 0.4864, estimate PE on current price 7.19 = 14.44(DPS 0.165)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.62/11.23 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,411,716,310 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(7.2-0.3)/0.5746 = 12.01 (Moderate)
Target Price	8.04+0.3 = 8.34 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.5746, DPS 0.3)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue decreased 6.3% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.2%, eps increased 706.2% and also higher than preceding year coorresponding quarter 11.4%, total cash generated is enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, oil & gas division recovering
First Support Price	7.0
Second Support Price	6.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.9 (2011-02-25)
Maybank Target Price	7.2 (2011-03-18)
TA Target Price	6.72 (2011-03-18)
Kenanga Target Price	8.16 (2011-04-12)
CIMB Target Price	8 (2011-04-18)
RHB Target Price	7.5 (2011-04-25)
AMMB Target Price	8.16 (2011-05-26)
ECM Target Price	8.16 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price	7 (2011-05-26)
OSK Target Price	6.41 (2011-05-26)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.86%
Dividend Yield	4.17%
Profit Margin	10.54%
Tax Rate	23.47%
Asset Turnover	1.2985
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.64
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.42
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.09
Cash Per Share	2.0
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.0035
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.4149
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9616
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.0495
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4428
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	18.6%
Days to sell the inventory	43
Days to collect the receivables	30
Days to pay the payables	50

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Improved sales registered by all business segments of the Group, particularly the Equipment segment, resulted in the revenue growth

- Higher revenue coupled with favourable foreign exchange rates mainly contributed to the higher pbt

- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicle sales of 73466 units represented 46.4% of the total industry volume of 158433 units

- Higher pbt than fourth quarter of 2010 because the fourth quarter results had reflected impairment losses provided on some of our assets and investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1306*4*1.1 = 0.5746, estimate PE on current price 7.2 = 12.01(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.45/13.48 (DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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KLCI Stock - UMW / 4588 - 2010 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	8,434,745,932 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(7.25-0.3)/0.4935 = 14.08 (Moderate)
Target Price	7.40+0.3 = 7.70 (PE 15.0, EPS 0.4935, DPS 0.3)
Decision	BUY
Comment	Revenue increased 11.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.9%, eps decreased 87.6% and is second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year coorresponding quarter 83.8%, both positive free and net cash flow increased, affecting by strengthening of JPY currency, oil & gas expect to profit in coming quarter, at least 50% profit for dividend
First Support Price	7.1
Second Support Price	7.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	8.11 (2011-01-13)
ECM Target Price	8.16 (2011-02-25)
HwangDBS Target Price	8.9 (2011-02-25)
AMMB Target Price	7.4 (2011-03-17)
Maybank Target Price	7.2 (2011-03-18)
OSK Target Price	8.92 (2011-03-18)
RHB Target Price	7.85 (2011-03-18)
TA Target Price	6.72 (2011-03-18)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.74%
Dividend Yield	4.14%
Profit Margin	6.53%
Tax Rate	44.82%
Asset Turnover	1.2847
Net Asset Value Per Share	3.52
Net Tangible Asset per share	3.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.17
Cash Per Share	1.9
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.8053
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2701
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.8339
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	1.1777
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4736
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	16.4%
Days to sell the inventory	43
Days to collect the receivables	32
Days to pay the payables	50

My notes based on 2010 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Group revenue of RM3438.1 million for the third quarter ended 31st December 2010 exceeded that of the preceding year's corresponding quarter of RM2992.3 million by RM445.8 million or 14.9%. Improved sales registered by all business segments of the Group resulted in the revenue growth

- Group profit before taxation for the fourth quarter ended 31st December 2010 of RM224.7 million was, however lower than the RM249.1 million registered in the same quarter of 2009 by 9.8%, a decrease of RM24.4 million. while improved automotive sales generated higher profits, impairment losses provided on some of our assets and investments resulted in the lower profit before taxation

- Consequently, net profit attributable to the owners of the Company for the fourth quarter of 2010 decreased from RM111.1 million registered in the same quarter of 2009 to RM18.5 million, a reduction of RM92.6 million or 83.3%

- Group revenue of RM12840.6 million for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 surpassed the RM10720.9 million recorded in the same period of 2009 by RM2119.7 million or 19.8%. Generally, strong economic recovery and improved consumer confidence resulted in high demand for our products and services in the Automotive, Equipment and Manufacturing & Engineering segments. However, demand for our oil and gas products and services continued to be adversely affected by the slower recovery in the Oil & Gas industry

- Group profit before taxation for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 0f RM1312.9 million improved over the RM846.5 million achieved in 2009 by 55.1%, an increase of RM466.4 million. Higher revenue from three of our four core business segments, improved margins from favourable foreign exchange rates and model mix contributed to the higher profit. However, the anti-dumping and countervailing duties imposed by the United States of America on Oil Country Tubular Goods ('OCTG') pipes imported from China continued to adversely affect the performance of our overseas associate, WSP Holdings Limited ('WSP'). In addition, pre-operating expenses incurred by our jack-up rigs, Naga 2 and Naga 3 also contributed to the loss registered by the Oil & Gas segment

- Net profit attributable to the owners of the Company of RM512.4 million for the financial year ended 31st December 2010 improved over the RM382.4 million achieved in the same period of 2009 by RM130 million or 34%

- Total Toyota and Perodua vehicles sales of 281958 units represented 46.6% of the Total Industry Volume ('TIV') of 605156 units reported by the Malaysian Automotive Association for the financial year ended 31st December 2010

- Group revenue of RM3438.1 million for the fourth quarter ended 31st Decemeber 2010 was higher than the RM3087.3 million registered in the third quarter of 2010 by RM350.8 million or 11.4%. Higher sales registered by all four core business segments contributed to the improved revenue

- However, Group profit before taxation of RM224.7 million for the fourth quarter ended 31st December 2010 was RM116.2 million or 34.1% lower than the RM340.9 million recorded in the third quarter of 2010. The reduction in profit was mainly due to provision for impairment loss on some of our assets and investments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4486*1.1 = 0.4935, estimate PE on current price 7.25 = 14.08(DPS 0.3)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1311*4*0.9 = 0.472, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.65/13.57 (DPS 0.335)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1517*4*0.9 = 0.5461(0.1517 is average of recent 2Q eps, deduct 10% risk adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.43/11.3 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1034*4 = 0.4136(0.1034 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/14.24 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1016*4 = 0.4064(0.1016 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.97/14.54 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0927*4 = 0.3708(0.0927 is average of recent 2Q eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.94/15.29 (DPS 0.23)

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