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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

KLCI Stock - CSCSTEL / 5094 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)459,800,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.21-0.07)/0.1241 = 9.19 (Moderate)
Target Price> SMA 200
DecisionNot interested unless stock price very firm support by strong buy volume @ 1.2 or below
Comment
Revenue increased 27.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.8%, eps increased 91.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 68.2%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover little financing expenses but still spent 0.6% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, margin slightly recovered, liquidity and gearing ratio also indicate very firm financial health but too much resources not utilize to gain more value, all accounting of collection or repayment period is good
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.15
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price1.16 (2012-08-22)
RHB Target Price1.66 (2012-08-22)
HLG Target Price1.49 (2012-08-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity1.99%
Dividend Yield5.79%
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin4.09%
Net Profit Margin4.66%
Tax Rate25.75%
Asset Turnover1.3073
Net Asset Value Per Share2.04
Net Tangible Asset per share2.04
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.59
Cash Per Share0.62
Liquidity Current Ratio7.316
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.8813
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.9105
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1529
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1326
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale43.8%
Days to sell the inventory62
Days to collect the receivables50
Days to pay the payables25

Technical Analysis
SMA 101.192 (Uptrend)
SMA 201.196 (Uptrend 4 days)
SMA 501.231 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.261 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.287 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.005859 ( 0.001333 )
Signal (9)-0.011453 ( 0.001399 )
MACD Histogram0.005594 (Bullish trend 6 days)
Bolinger Upper Band1.255
Bolinger Lower Band1.137

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The increase in revenue and profit before tax were due to the increase in sale volume of all our steel products albeit at lower average selling prices

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 761877*0.05/373200 = 0.1021, estimate PE on current price 1.21 = 9.19(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 771767*0.06/373200 = 0.1241(exclude RM6.4 million inventories write-down, ROE 6%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.12/10.23 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1186*0.9 = 0.1067, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.31/11.43 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1483*0.8 = 0.1186, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.89/8.68 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.13/8.56 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1854*0.8 = 0.1483, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.4/10.32 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.18*0.9 = 0.162, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/9.57 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2936*0.9 = 0.2642 (10% decrease due to global steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.55/5.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.2936 (maintained forecast eps due to lower margin), estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.99/4.67 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2936 (20% growth from 0.2442, world steel price increasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.13/4.6 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.24, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.42/4.92 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.83/9.88 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0612, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/15.44

CSCSTEL latest news (English)

CSCSTEL latest news (Chinese)

World Steel News


Monday, August 27, 2012

KLCI Stock - RSAWIT / 5113 - 2012 Quarter 2

RIMBUNAN SAWIT BERHAD


Company Description
RIMBUNAN SAWIT BERHAD is a Malaysia-based Company. The principal activities of the Company are investment holding and provision of management services. The Company’s wholly owned subsidiaries are R.H. Plantation Sdn Bhd engaged in cultivation of oil palm; Timrest Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in cultivation of oil palm; Rimbunan Sawit Holdings Berhad, engaged in investment holding; Baram Trading Sdn Bhd, which is engaged in cultivation of oil palm, and Nescaya Palma Sdn Bhd, engaged in cultivation of oil palm.

Company Info 
Listing Date2006-06-28
IPO Price1.0
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,360,845,141 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50
BoardMain
SectorPlantation
Major IndustryOil Palm & Others Crop
Websitehttp://www.rsb.com.my/

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.04-0.015)/0.0323 = 31.73 (High)
Target Price1.16
DecisionNot interested unless SMA5 cross SMA10 and continue show strong sustain above SMA200
Comment
Revenue increased 21% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.3%, eps was same but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 87.2%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence spent 67.4% to cover all other expenses, gross margin decreasing, liquidity ratio still indicate very weak financial ratio, lower gearing ratio indicate financially healthy, payables repayment period improving, all accounting of collection or repayment period is good
First Support Price1.01
Second Support Price0.945
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Jupiter Target Price1.16 (2012-07-05)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity34.53%
Dividend Yield1.44%
Gross Profit Margin15.43%
Operating Profit Margin8.88%
Net Profit Margin5.76%
Tax Rate29.01%
Asset Turnover0.2276
Net Asset Value Per Share0.44
Net Tangible Asset per share0.4
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.6
Cash Per Share0.04
Liquidity Current Ratio0.7687
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.6317
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4371
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6341
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3678
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-12.9%
Days to sell the inventory37
Days to collect the receivables36
Days to pay the payables144

Technical Analysis 
SMA 101.047 (Downtrend)
SMA 201.06 (Downtrend 14 days)
SMA 501.067 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.053 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.005 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.010283 ( 0.000132 )
Signal (9)-0.006741 ( 0.000885 )
MACD Histogram0.003542 (Bearish trend 22 days)
Bolinger Upper Band1.115
Bolinger Lower Band1.005

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly due to the decrease in average selling prices and sales volume for crude palm oil and palm kernel. Average selling prices of CPO and PK fell by 5.7% and 26.4% respectively for the current quarter as compared to the preceding corresponding quarter. The weakening of CPO and PK prices was attributable to the lower global market prices for oil palm products. Sales volume for CPO and PK decreased by 9.4% and 0.5% respectively for the current quarter as compared to the preceding corresponding quarter, due to the lower fresh fruit bunches (“FFB”) production from estates. Lower pbt in line with the decrease in revenue and the increase in cost of sales

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0323, estimate PE on current price 1.03 = 31.73(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 65975/2041722 = 0.0323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 35.45/30.5 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 65975*1.1/2041722 = 0.0355, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.25/27.46 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 17855/1308505*4*1.1 = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.08/16.25 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.113/4*2*1.1 = 0.0622, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.4/7.15 (DPS 0.02)

RSAWIT latest news (English)

RSAWIT latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-08-1720122N/AN/A-0.49%0.98%87324159489502611332472794850.00230.004615395975663368019697326114565608728594319635246307132250641022041722204172221233902012-06-3015.43%8.88%5.76%29.01%0.2276-0.440.42.60.040.76870.63170.43710.63410.3678-12.9%3736144
2012-05-29201211.161.0-0.49%0.49%721657216563066306475947590.00230.00231551683581990813549696936120276786899619635233798102794935582041722204172221233902012-03-3119.23%13.61%8.74%22.63%0.2303-0.440.42.60.060.84870.72260.57410.65510.3751-9.1%4130150
2012-02-28201141.160.990.01510.71%84.39%9237335957814728936688373659750.00630.071016124086468798123496552987038281098291981191231940609792178798131999892969314783972011-12-3128.93%23.76%15.94%39.45%0.22315.78260.950.871.290.161.0570.95520.84210.73150.40123.9%4127192
2011-11-21201131.220.83-22.84%73.68%98613267205234537894017855576020.04990.1629128500171858985797566412725851020083298919124294233566155583575363536673039052011-09-3031.04%27.08%23.78%23.16%0.2423-1.361.140.750.010.21030.14960.01121.49510.5592-100.9%4665304
2011-08-26201122.330.74-30.79%50.84%94196168592328315548724073397460.06820.11301375894796283113150579611604645785166201912426134007231313528933517327446042011-06-3045.13%38.84%34.85%22.24%0.185-1.331.111.90.010.16950.10920.00891.70710.5787-162.0%7171493
2011-05-25201112.682.0-20.05%20.05%7439674396226552265515673156730.04470.044713356877751091175895605781731523101123281912357866542125813505713505717502212011-03-3144.73%35.81%30.45%25.55%0.156-1.261.042.060.010.14720.08610.01081.74970.5803-193.5%7962532
2011-02-24201062.242.00.023.88%46.07%275782910508827755164394522250.01250.3073130438676094911635454343714560217521832929434222961662545191233505711699497642442010-12-3146.78%36.49%32.01%42.49%0.1497-2.512.061.060.010.11420.06730.01111.78170.5834-212.3%6949606
2011-01-24201052.422.18-18.79%42.20%81849263472305656668921294478310.07700.3029130299076684211567453614814277916685829890434212407953969105482764701579076303512010-11-3048.77%42.03%37.34%22.48%0.1656-2.662.181.050.020.20750.13070.01861.82380.5885-108.5%6256579
2010-10-25201042.491.63-4.33%23.42%441371816236925361354907265470.03830.20702842652060872437817853249799381870040506266894538948831282671282672437072010-08-3128.03%20.36%15.69%25.63%0.63899.18020.610.385.00.050.37540.26680.06622.64430.725-30.1%293596
2010-07-26201031.91.4-4.81%19.09%417521374867305292095450216390.04250.1687277025203998-7302748049732161249540505251673766228431282671282671872692010-05-3131.42%22.65%17.50%25.39%0.6437-0.570.344.290.090.45760.36640.17562.79350.7364-19.2%172485
2010-04-26201021.551.34-6.35%14.28%48077957349723219047193161890.05610.1262271766204189-675773684767307108184050530460412787731282671282671924002010-02-2834.25%24.54%20.22%26.02%0.6349-0.530.35.00.060.38980.31890.11893.02160.7513-23.4%152897
2010-01-27201011.571.21-7.93%7.93%47657476571216912169898489840.07000.0700299029202229-96800117623151248143421861111092545131282671282671898352009-11-3038.04%30.30%25.53%26.17%0.5244-0.750.732.030.481.44241.30680.97742.08910.676317.8%294874
2009-10-23200941.531.280.0353.62%17.23%408231518903951183722858136120.02230.1061319486206137-11334930471213961063220799907519707405061282671282671782912009-08-3125.14%15.54%9.68%27.66%0.475313.09810.880.662.110.41.12811.04290.77771.81860.64525.5%184289
2009-07-24200931.491.28-7.33%13.56%359871117127786143825789107150.04510.0835277870192947-849231742170591274220798188016059147391282671282671744432009-05-3137.84%28.25%21.64%25.65%0.6168-0.660.642.120.21.63041.47480.58442.2720.694416.4%218246
2009-04-29200921.441.18-2.45%6.24%323537505226016596193849260.01510.0384272703193544-791591741142311994520798159723973247711282671282671500722009-02-2824.85%15.13%8.04%25.49%0.6871-0.620.591.980.291.48711.33130.82982.4450.709711.6%193944
2009-01-15200911.30.94-3.82%3.82%426994269940264026301930190.02350.0235261470179456-820144694803821712081833441173196451282671282671257012008-11-3021.51%14.72%9.43%25.01%0.7734-0.640.611.610.281.94211.5331.19612.18810.686313.9%321546
2008-10-24200841.270.870.058.60%38.77%6034421198612730540698654389990.06750.3040265025186030-78995581837255735574707661437449948208181282671282671218532008-08-3131.90%24.87%21.10%32.02%0.79993.12450.620.591.610.321.77681.31461.11882.3550.701913.6%471264
2008-07-28200831.780.95-8.54%30.17%5198115164211220413408588303460.06700.23663450872118736664133214543436670125975707661235838333324331282671282672283152008-05-3133.08%25.84%21.58%23.46%0.5682-0.990.892.00.411.60411.33841.13481.67420.61414.4%381795
2008-04-22200822.281.71-8.90%21.63%471979966112651301208949217580.06980.1696253089134563-118526376295809518964707662046639430313361282671282672796222008-02-2939.02%31.39%26.80%29.26%0.7044-0.920.922.370.414.18593.78441.59561.13530.531758.3%4414682
2008-01-25200812.542.01-12.74%12.74%5246452464174691746912809128090.09990.0999239164125762-113402156365447279570766101897394781601282671282673078402007-11-3043.77%37.53%33.30%26.68%0.6867-0.880.882.730.774.95294.48743.99461.1090.525859.3%402761
2007-10-26200742.982.010.05N/AN/A4443014739411593268788302194700.06470.1518220618120038-10058047399790862191937223949122700710221282671282672308802007-08-3138.80%30.24%26.09%28.39%0.506711.85830.780.782.310.714.61364.25734.04081.19350.544172.7%391678
2007-07-3020073N/AN/A-N/AN/A341911029645566152864136111690.03220.0871258954166676-92278310632184810466937229215125192471128267128267N/A2007-05-3129.22%22.45%16.28%25.69%0.2601-0.720.72N/A0.992.13982.08131.94091.80620.6437111.1%2950112
2007-04-2720072N/AN/A-N/AN/A331566877346169719339970320.02650.0548258312170171-8814122950193324339937223618721930011282671282672244672007-02-2827.05%20.22%13.92%26.36%N/A-0.690.692.541.02.01631.95571.86011.93070.6588N/A-N/AN/A

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtBiological assets (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Fixed deposits with licensed banks (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Bank overdraf (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Payables and accruals (L-1)Provision for taxation (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
201226923555075540452302625880-58946816293106-172926686817951539019413145334226190-19320-687064814315955704880196
201216825114732540452312625599-5783168022446-4165272421190621580813829144584221367-26306-875584574020205441581354
201146727854748540452326225790-5697294101772-9014125233118214927817001144480254488-7533-1189535878224626018181234
201135983215746539952339024316-495613378-4091-24133--55018140889180065-15935-220051-145916019085797
2011270585360295399523525--502366338-4091-29951--49746151022148950-23468-258904-7171206768113150
2011169371856565391323660--489167222674868-28842--35574146405155906-12802-260193-5758194045117589
2010668324846555391323809--485294313584868-21975--26253142983149920-19435-249231-4979194401116354
201056797861740-76222-136095347860701-4807-22662--33117136432334989-11248-65850-6009212314115674
201041140911928-29048-2255283769990974807-9512--174712027098236-5872-48565-119931945243
201031133471928-29046-22652812393663997396-5744--1191120049120980-819-32460-181227878-
201021118681928-29064-22753803704661017396-4692--1312819699118350-1238322931250--30423-
201011087182468-3320-131438018012059707273424708572--2075619650119350-15223939350--21625-
200941093322868-29103-229548139317330717273263005575--1728718835121850-3123-34100-117927050-
20093107119--3360-1325481373282132810800150006943-32251616017968130350-342-288629019-6406-
20092106634--3380-13309827707239254010800191306979-13078684417651131100-629-2812511968-4071-
20091106823--3400-1336479828621720158941980012230-5422292717613131950---1250110281-7111-
20084105270--3420-1341976796168121203482111917200-2984418016866131950350468-123131230177911003-
20083140370--12803-3236984468202208203493256012434-4720460427869137200---12391147212985167076664
2008255127----1088350438279173203483145813107-6686044161392088000---500014093313210418-
2008154695691---1092650762142123201767814811475-694050861311288000---5000950620008144-
2007455023--199-10968506813534719785707278013-17473075955188000---5000713012829075-
2007356098107---1101151251427124150001081573846-32365953802393000---5000070487617844-
2007270591887----483154302-150001084864167-31543410847293000---50000867816088413-

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseCost of salesFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesSelling and distribution costs
201228732414587384730061317405811592802984
20121721651427582903328255140601201912541
20114923735810656537703247843005454852952
20113986135432680063441419745561661863540
20112941967303516883753102036311455-3313
2011174396578841119398830144431194-2492
201062757837511467812361262026682-937
2010581849687041929383476736922401-2596
201044413717753176520615021819243-2069
201034175218552863321501391727--2076
201024807725303161020771922356--2503
201014765731852952622732551411--2533
200944082310933056223923122047--2183
200933598719972237023811151519--2046
20092323536632431322934071468--2085
2009142699100733516226011251410--2612
200846034440764109322775501542--3252
200835198126323478722134291603--2587
200824719737022877921657812173--2210
200815246446602950022236981492--2478
200744443032912718918446001877--2527
200733419114302420121098731254--1934
2007233156121724188208711091247--2127

Monthly Business Data
yearmthCrude Palm OilPalm kernel
201276065.31340.8
201265229.871169.37
201255412.851168.97
201244357.52978.68
201234432.1983.86
201224044.48839.54
201214549.91022.39
2011124792.321089.9
2011115533.781268.92
2011105899.61291.13
201196002.911342.75
201185371.461222
201175796.391385.5
201165339.741114.84
201155736.491161.94
201145707.451248.01
201135335.61218.13
201123970.11892.01
201113509.62784.36
2010124581.53996.42
2010115049.21956.75
2010105155.021260.33
201095214.941209.6
201085760.151312.07



Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year

pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

Image


Sunday, August 26, 2012

KLCI Stock - KNM / 7164 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)700,764,815 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now0.7/0.1348 = 5.19 (Moderate)
Target PriceAbove SMA 100
DecisionShort term BUY if stock price can sustain above SMA50 and got very strong buy volume
Comment
Revenue increased 0.1% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.8%, eps decreased 3.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 211.7%, no cash generated from any of cash flow hence spent 60% of Group cash to cover all expenses, slightly better margin but still low, liquidity ratio still indicate very weak financial ratio, although gearing ratio got improved but still indicate weak financial leverage, all accounting of collection or repayment period still as asual acceptable, all segment turned positive
First Support Price0.67
Second Support Price0.63
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
OSK Target Price0.8 (2012-05-23)
AMMB Target Price0.55 (2012-08-17)
HwangDBS Target Price0.7 (2012-08-17)
Jupiter Target Price0.79 (2012-08-17)
Kenanga Target Price0.73 (2012-08-17)
Maybank Target Price0.88 (2012-08-17)
MIDF Target Price0.56 (2012-08-17)
RHB Target Price0.74 (2012-08-17)
TA Target Price1.11 (2012-08-17)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity-2.28%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin5.92%
Net Profit Margin3.71%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.575
Net Asset Value Per Share1.68
Net Tangible Asset per share0.3
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.35
Cash Per Share0.18
Liquidity Current Ratio0.8445
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.4212
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.107
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.3248
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5687
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-11.7%
Days to sell the inventory113
Days to collect the receivables190
Days to pay the payables140

Technical Analysis 
SMA 100.64 (Uptrend)
SMA 200.629 (Uptrend 5 days)
SMA 500.672 (Same)
SMA 1000.733 (Downtrend)
SMA 2000.877 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.004543 ( 0.003952 )
Signal (9)-0.010675 ( 0.003804 )
MACD Histogram0.015218 (Bullish trend 5 days)
Bolinger Upper Band0.744
Bolinger Lower Band0.514

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to higher job recognition on stronger order book and better contribution margin from projects

- Asia & Oceanic Segment saw improvement on contribution from higher margin projects’ progress. Market competition on conventional low end process equipment in 2012 eased with higher order secured

- Europe Segment continue to operate with the strong order book from last year complimented with new orders secured in the current year. Profitability improved on higher project revenue recognition and better contribution margin

- Americas Segment continue to weigh down on the Americas performance, extending losses on the back of slowdown of order book as compared to the previous year. However, North America continue to contribute positively on progress of Canadian oil sands projects

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1648151*0.08/977845 = 0.1348, estimate PE on current price 0.7 = 5.19
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1625722*0.08/977848 = 0.133, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.86/4.21
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to loss
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0889*0.9 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.63/13.75(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0194+0.021)*2*1.1 = 0.0889, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.65/12.26 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0655*2*1.1 = 0.1441, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.12/15.68 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0089*4*1.2 = 0.0427(use VAT 15%, include incoming new contract), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/10.54
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced
- No estimate for next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0081*4 = 0.0324, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0181*4 = 0.0724, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.67/9.39 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0250*4 = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.45/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0214*4 = 0.0856, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.7/3.56 (DPS 0.015)

KNM latest news (English)

KNM Latest news (Chinese)


Saturday, August 18, 2012

KLCI Stock - MAS / 3786 - 2012 Quarter 2

MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BERHAD


Company Description

MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BERHAD is engaged in the business of air transportation and the provision of related services. As of December 31, 2007, it operated over 100 aircrafts, and the fleet dominated by Boeing 737s, 747s and 777s. It operates in two business segments. The Airline operations segment is engaged in the operation of aircraft for passenger. The Cargo services segment is engaged in the operation of aircraft for cargo and mail services. The Company is also engaged in hotel operations, catering, engineering, computerized reservation services, coach transportation, trucking and warehousing services, retailing of goods, terminal charges, and tour and travel-related activities. The Company flies 42,000 passengers to over 100 destinations across six continents everyday. In September 2007, the Company incorporated and purchased Malaysian Aerospace Engineering Sdn. Bhd., MASWings Sdn. Bhd., and FlyFirefly Holiday Sdn. Bhd. In December 2008, it acquired Kelip-kelip Labuan Limited.

Company Info 
Listing Date1985-12-16
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,676,371,864 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryAir Transportation
Sub IndustryAir Cargo
Websitehttp://www.malaysiaairlines.com

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E nowN/A
Target Price> 1.14 (SMA 100)
DecisionShort term BUY if stock price continue strong sustain above SMA50
Comment
Revenue increased 5.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.2%, eps increased 103.3% loss but decreased 33.7% loss than preceding year corresponding quarter, use disposal cash to cover operating expenses and use got more than enough cash generated from financing to cover investing expenses, operating loss reducing, liquidity ratio still indicate very weak financial strength, although gearing ratio got improved but still indicate weak financial leverage, all collection/repayment perid is good, temporary benefit from oil price below 100 but currently is increasing back
First Support Price1.02
Second Support Price0.9
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
ECM Target Price1 (2012-04-06)
Jupiter Target Price1.3 (2012-05-31)
AMMB Target Price1.25 (2012-06-13)
HLG Target Price0.92 (2012-08-15)
HwangDBS Target Price0.9 (2012-08-15)
Kenanga Target Price1.02 (2012-08-15)
Maybank Target Price1.2 (2012-08-15)
MIDF Target Price1.16 (2012-08-15)
OSK Target Price1.38 (2012-08-15)
RHB Target Price1 (2012-08-15)
TA Target Price1.23 (2012-08-15)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity-98.94%
Dividend Yield-
Gross Profit Margin0.00%
Operating Profit Margin-3.17%
Net Profit Margin-10.81%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8726
Net Asset Value Per Share0.45
Net Tangible Asset per share0.4
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.67
Cash Per Share0.59
Liquidity Current Ratio0.3893
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.3517
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2078
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio9.256
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.9016
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-43.5%
Days to sell the inventory8
Days to collect the receivables37
Days to pay the payables109

Technical Analysis 
SMA 101.045 (Uptrend)
SMA 201.052 (Downtrend 39 days)
SMA 501.088 (Downtrend)
SMA 1001.143 (Downtrend)
SMA 2001.284 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)-0.007573 ( 0.004935 )
Signal (9)-0.014118 ( 0.001636 )
MACD Histogram0.006545 (Bullish trend 4 days)
Bolinger Upper Band1.115
Bolinger Lower Band0.989

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q2 due to decrease in operating revenue in Cargo Services was due to 15% decline of load tonnage and 16% decline of capacity and lower loss was due to lower non-fuel cost by 9% and a decrease in fuel cost by 8% in which average fuel cost has decreased from USD140 per barrel to USD 132 per barrel

- Higher revenue than FY12Q1 mainly from passenger revenue and fuel surcharge

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced, mainly use stock price chart technical analysis to trade
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.128*0.9 = 0.1152, estimate PE on current price 1.3 = 11.28
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.067*3)-0.073 = 0.128, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.61
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.07, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.86/19.14

MAS latest news (English)

MAS latest news (Chinese)

Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdategros_moper_mprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-08-1420122N/AN/A-33.07%49.33%321666662824263477355170653492485210420.10450.1559153332581382501114627150824736426717740323068978958814213829993067918894933342156334215635761062012-06-30-3.17%10.81%-0.8726-0.450.42.670.590.38930.35170.20789.2560.9016-43.5%837109
2012-05-22201211.21.02-16.27%16.27%305879030587901693301693301717931717930.05140.0514137883531285198014057936373202446577711117503195881478015739487413536883342156334215634089992012-03-31-10.03%5.54%-0.9858-0.280.224.640.430.37530.33150.168413.93450.9321-39.0%836107
2012-02-29201141.411.02-36.11%71.35%36115701365389413036832512884127738425239880.38220.7552124994761144332913639105614759234221686321796011192377727609749649639588143342156334215647792832011-12-31-36.57%36.10%-1.094-0.310.275.30.330.38620.33540.156410.97670.9155-32.0%834104
2011-11-21201131.741.25-13.50%35.24%349287310063445461540120920247758512466040.14290.373012333078100107101504623223685164081258478819612192377717748869552749685033342156334215645453322011-09-30-10.06%13.21%-1.1072-0.690.652.090.340.50950.42890.1974.33870.8117-20.6%1235108
2011-08-23201121.621.23-14.89%21.74%342867365705725094117476625266807690190.15760.2301124364379643580144732792857279864514877398914192377779474139582715279503342156334215654811352011-06-30-12.03%14.86%-1.0841-0.830.792.080.510.61660.54140.28633.47090.7754-16.8%1241115
2011-05-25201111.951.34-6.85%6.85%314189931418992382512382512423392423390.07250.0725127306919407853137273322838205661457022446869192377766268321581417079633342156334215652806062011-03-31-8.51%7.58%-1.0379-0.990.951.660.560.65370.58120.32082.8430.739-15.3%1141116
2011-02-23201042.011.58-32.61%32.95%3592010129804472644492820362320662344690.06680.0725124320768894832130783537244147958359435429208112449362344639652558519237773476501323477869530022010-12-31-3.82%7.36%12.05%1.044127.59241.091.051.90.640.73610.65730.40672.5240.7155-11.1%1238122
2010-11-25201032.271.92-33.63%1.20%331918593884372421602373523931985520.06880.002712006591871748313917328910896540297018325424012449362306672352432219250403476501319898571615922010-09-30-3.70%7.30%0.90%1.0501-1.020.992.080.650.72430.65140.40542.66170.7261-12.2%1240126
2010-08-16201022.422.02-75.15%31.58%315983460692515325912123405347292246820.16000.0718119398158785024135523154791287759274319225949812449003303095143597020130333342156312774276201152010-06-30-9.04%16.86%-1.0203-1.00.972.350.750.78690.71280.46272.79670.7358-9.5%1241127
2010-05-17201012.311.83-43.57%43.57%290941729094173202513202513100473100470.10350.103511993740833005012384366369046841919682842527187244936224367039048425398462995623299562361709832010-03-31-9.95%11.01%3.03%0.9588-1.221.181.751.061.00460.92090.62392.28140.69450.2%1348126
2010-02-22200942.391.83-14.53%11.68%3219520113098555687334619906097044901970.34710.2864854828678367241186971156216475752938418624732940623135373449126124493621756566171158233374752009-12-31-0.12%17.67%-1.3196.63410.410.345.591.680.85110.78190.530911.20020.9168-7.3%1245133
2009-11-25200933.181.8-7.14%2.85%289386080903352970651067432996231195070.17930.0715819590580594361333413646918473656218333466029406231785182145052214901011671078167106151803412009-09-30-2.53%10.27%-1.4421-0.070.01310.01.450.74030.6760.393365.4520.9833-13.6%1254138
2009-08-06200923.352.9-20.85%4.28%247728251651098961461899048749441796980.49650.1075847993980475181261543242114765706371827854929406231412852113430318063201762305167105254631452009-06-30-17.18%36.17%2.28%1.5187-0.250.1916.321.610.73430.67880.429819.16960.949-13.6%1047128
2009-06-12200913.222.88-16.64%16.64%268438726843877095417095416985466985460.41800.41809132138957886311870-446725914165239381189746294062367478448503824555851671042167104254475962009-03-31-5.26%26.43%-1.5395--0.27-0.34-9.592.110.8880.82720.5532-20.88741.0489-5.1%1043119
2009-02-26200843.422.37-1.17%6.19%37641321503530349841264661461802441900.02760.1461100715965874620112784196976623651135971348964944343381983364149371529406231671002167099645117052008-12-31-1.76%1.32%6.46%1.492818.47612.52.441.112.611.36641.28870.89351.40350.583311.9%94790
2008-11-28200833.322.49-0.97%5.02%39522861127117019683214942380931981320.02150.11171034584262035571199941422854335438083413776164434338124188486426835700701774147177417245418162008-09-30-1.12%0.50%-1.4816-2.332.271.132.721.4121.33570.91611.5020.599614.2%1051102
2008-08-18200823.82.5-1.01%4.06%3657738731888560970195259399781600390.02250.09021040654463143861152540921581350837287496443433835936635946240748761774140177414063869042008-06-30-1.68%1.67%34.43%1.4543-2.32.241.612.861.40181.32740.93131.54740.606814.5%1051117
2008-05-20200814.02.94-3.04%3.04%366114736611471342891342891200611200610.06770.06771003294759646701152540682776411412909896443433819321219330842410301774140177414065643182008-03-31-3.58%3.67%10.25%1.4813-2.292.231.662.891.44791.37451.00611.47030.594515.4%1045111
2008-02-25200744.483.220.02512.81%45.08%4056783146302312470328823332419258514180.15410.5424100619816116032110563945949237058650727498632715846991863312284963944343381569861156986168759912007-12-31-6.88%6.09%1.93%1.45818.07592.512.441.83.131.34991.28040.93591.55430.607812.5%945118
2007-11-26200735.14.26-19.27%32.27%3758443106142223736666353013639356094930.26020.43588489381597153415265251784712721844274525223315846991699636164740332321021398620139862064056792007-09-30-2.77%9.94%2.44%1.6804-1.791.722.662.311.07881.00920.59072.38610.70343.0%1057113
2007-08-27200725.44.42-5.97%13.00%338523268557791189422616351128482455580.08070.1756804175559084081481721333477918753559795125315846991147854109660126813001398620139862067133762007-06-30-1.44%3.51%5.17%1.3065-1.511.453.311.921.01670.94050.49582.78890.73470.9%1578174
2007-05-2820071N/AN/A-7.03%7.03%347054734705471426931426931327101327100.09490.0949735796553295641486920284013730966188051102158469931121626011418448131398620139862080420652007-03-31-3.72%4.11%6.70%0.9679-1.441.394.141.310.97550.8950.37912.64690.7243-1.7%21100228
2007-02-2620064N/AN/A-N/AN/A365093613067175143082731191214721364320.08690.0975702588251372111524618886711410855030241049399117940964410940529015846991398620139862065455412006-12-31-2.52%3.92%14.71%0.5196-1.341.283.661.130.74080.66570.30862.74210.7312-36.5%40178381

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAmount due from associated companies (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Negotiable instruments of deposit (A-0)Other assets (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative financial assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Negotiable instruments of deposit (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative financial liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Provisions (L-1)Sales in advance of carriage (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20122-850168679123264---54599-10990858286318-1979797-89551311358332--1360295-172288214268690-89723422662680-3767899-11472061752261256215914627
20121-765171254126355---54599-9938533316134-1427399-762018679370981--1356034-198172504359543-1917220500--2634155-11334651557473292747914057
20114-765151757120043---54599-9073907343582-1014464-8865-362267101073-1268154-198185664290583-14372053079820-1379411-11881651705943264389913639
20113-12191331401060062791--54599-8699413415321-1024091-10962-462173105272-1318091-29187274274221859-157828112834474-557631-8803291807806216929115046
20112-12191277641053568647--54604-8052271449275-1583500-7682-443440105260-149741925409419985493481724-16182-19189-643583-8742352178609216721614473
20111-247513231310757711582--54604-8160766453667-1763471-1274614499422362105272-1489357-291473573813-4049247079--577479-9430821844178220902413727
20104-34951377321018042360--54604-7663357442575-2085451-19436-430849139206-1351207-2101553414913-3614232823108080-293867-9349671677346221906513078
20103-3383811561194737429-232167539532735587165488--2120760---406494138766-1370790-2771753066885-3581-343104-229686-10493851946620200104513917
20102-3376012056185987--241214539522916786843282--2270323---402018240242-1356798--1778443181666-3622-426995-227602-9294741852930198489113552
20101-3284712698382756--238284539523257695997690--2796778---427830392376-1518475--2050433013227-3000-323586-249762-8030341752047198035112384
20094-34026110041789761798-223797539521799833132584--2664859---384916287466-1395888--2717782004062-3696-584787-315518-9022951676536207805211869
20093-265810409569953--224838565201801032983008--1725435---397357705070-1746868-16956497181228455-11066-938317-544478-9375621442911230523413334
20092-265710527776253-100000243132552101984382850447--2133076---366357704846-1644246-1693769901672722-11278-832990-1042297-8781991446514239192412615
20091-1981110742976930-250000210426590962088922546479--2941530--83097386987579909-1661552--2544601668318-11475-866335-945844-8198621137341258508711870
20084-134810625373268-250000213092649462198542464823--3571743---379730795000-1931539-1693-985577-5001---433411-8177031222410240882511278
20083210406377110745769527---6494617478236022075276189784825069107663996-401781-9801771145684---936650-13412---36334210034257421501508821163575711999
20082226973377111157165337---6632517519217939089228-5079876111260142-405815-8842031215282---85967253934526--41774-10591867131811787123181838511525
20081235153351610351663403---6632517566207986872328-5136030163660159-374980-7121781106289-315-8596725227716387----11167437291601462723172739311525
20074243377400710316258447-340000-6632517613206087972878-44343382740--365266485000-1807949-315-859672-4432-----6818281563394300639111056
200732551102260110277564997---699733418791729444--323210268352049-381239-11719541064575-315-5000005494919757---5000009258176626671395152191287715265
20072268826300849130357923---689033457501680478--26813009965650340-412049-10313011223842-315-5000004641819568---5000001338882-1551419195180614817
20071288687341557208568306---103850-2080434--183053648910846717-388710-9429201012457-1053-5000002960120593---5000001227524-1210664184012914869
20064295860418288036267461---102701918242411537129410-15846991064745608-385769-7535961024580-1277--7203120458---10500007194663477141202060172420515246

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesDiscontinued operationForeign exchange (loss)/gainAfter tax effect of finance cost on RCPSDerivative (loss)/gainShare of net profit of jointly controlled entityGains on sale of propertiesResidual value sharing on sale of aircraft by Penerbangan Malaysia BerhadDomestic rationalisation expenses and redundancy expensesCompensation for domestic rationalisation
201223216666943627728440834029925705206--17297415277-----
2012130587902045446025589934215744186313--19962223778-----
201143611570268184393866606499876651914216--21730276912792----
20113349287315472416637216837213705737565-195075-701835855----
20112342867316347354525655238977389222221---560853140----
2011131418993439383725220134615056495773---645702817----
20104359201031854324398112835358075297704--61481437741931----
20103331918521764502980384327691366513013--608615571410280----
2010231598349703304453101349855411683231---2171590----
20101290941796892789039255030124635153780---566551798----
20094321952041824247918927033050168539798---5816931741----
2009328938601839199986711230342767191704---202059-----
2009224772822045718045696602972574745677---1340500-----
20091268438711587174403855928640115925965---557001-----
20084376413232192005810230438001974423647-----13---
200833952286188843028216699240750014745566122----0---
200823657738209926864115921371208305805-----453---
2008136611471375935658729336174864694956-----1944---
20074405678347791110580722385842232826270----119819517--
200733758443910596058398637383266267140258----51729220557--
20072338523261451314454379339095451353837317----342828292--
20071347054795601303257247339867742345204362----17726---
20064365093621044120776474036236485667537961----209263562900

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentAirlines OperationsCargo ServicesCatering services
20122536793623243066082466199-
20121160403414642952961431253-
20114260383731803414312523279-
20113381393392073304318489623-
20112183142765103156860530009-
20111220822662832875886510214-
20104289112781943225041616252-
20103250082841642999506578836-
20102289193200722825450625537-
20101253222513812599371536105-
20094275412320452868732634571-
20093240812124952614822450594-
20092227371959472273810380122-
20091234121950262496766359235-
200841512728095334086966183002962
200832351637729136368466684072601
200822472427589732220536789402529
200812278424840432615606253362405
200741538329269735571597270702727
200732732826293734022777015462528
200722583125942630796246479332546
200712215922580031713566105032506
200643712026229131570067734842859

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtOthersElimination/AdjustmentAirlines OperationsCargo ServicesCatering services
2012229625520526298760328-
20121151263131729164239-
201146697676121396298065-
2011314801962350695524312-
2011254544688650242834449-
2011128511894728057120522-
2010435638467914310026959-
201032757272019585640182-
2010276481063557885849254-
201014963300929298325314-
20094214233888156026221430-
200931186353725793936932-
2009226711323195834848343-
200911526595362015684958-
20084350136759381514148610
200832483272111932775397585
200823447861777548403603
200814365-6479963533201
2007488943909522545964771735
2007350836034818827715338
20072417811426615461615079476
200713676534211212418617108
20064661347786369365456963

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables


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