KLCI Stock - BAT / 4162 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	17,634,332,800 (Very Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(61.76-2.6)/2.985 = 19.82 (Moderate)
Target Price	59.70+2.6 = 62.30 (PE 20.0, EPS 2.985, DPS 2.6)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price go through some correction and still sustain long term uptrend
Comment	Revenue increased 2.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.4%, eps increased 13.5% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 19.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 10.5% of Group cash to cover all other expenses, gross margin in decreasing trend, still effectively operate in a low liquidity ratio environment, gearing ratio still show weaker financial leverage compared to recent year, all collection/repayment period was good, higher inventory and higher revenue can indicate products demand still strong, cash decreasing
First Support Price	59.0
Second Support Price	55.0
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	47.45 (2012-02-17)
RHB Target Price	55.2 (2012-04-24)
Alliance Target Price	49.6 (2012-07-20)
AMMB Target Price	49.1 (2012-07-20)
CIMB Target Price	58.5 (2012-07-20)
HLG Target Price	53.1 (2012-07-20)
HwangDBS Target Price	57.4 (2012-07-20)
Kenanga Target Price	58.7 (2012-07-20)
Maybank Target Price	55 (2012-07-20)
OSK Target Price	54.22 (2012-07-20)
TA Target Price	55.61 (2012-07-20)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	168.98%
Dividend Yield	4.21%
Gross Profit Margin	34.51%
Operating Profit Margin	28.42%
Net Profit Margin	27.78%
Tax Rate	25.57%
Asset Turnover	2.5293
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.66
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.22
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	257.82
Cash Per Share	0.96
Liquidity Current Ratio	0.9269
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.5436
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.3117
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	2.5089
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.715
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	-1.5%
Days to sell the inventory	46
Days to collect the receivables	18
Days to pay the payables	50

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	59.148 (Uptrend 47 days)
SMA 50	56.58 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	54.882 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	50.764 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	1.357581 ( 0.047508 )
Signal (9)	1.257092 ( 0.025122 )
MACD Histogram	0.100489 (Bullish trend 16 days)
Bolinger Upper Band	63.938
Bolinger Lower Band	54.358

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to higher domestic volume and higher contract manufacturing revenue(due to higher volume and higher margin following the change from toll to full contract manufacturing model)

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 473510*1.8/285530 = 2.985, estimate PE on current price 52.02 = 19.51(DPS 2.6)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 431735*1.7/285530 = 2.7636, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/17.42 (DPS 2.85)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 438386*1.8/285530 = 2.5705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.04/19.02 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.6173+0.6449)*2*1.05 = 2.6506, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.77/15.45 (DPS 2.76)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 1.2703*2 = 2.5406, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.43/15.74 (DPS 2.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.6254*4 = 2.5016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.43/17.2 (DPS 2.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.5977*4*0.95 = 2.2713, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.36/18.67 (DPS 2.41)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.56/16.8 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 2.4323(7% drop from 2.6154), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.53/16.31 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.82/16.06 (DPS 2.36)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 2.4323, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.99/16.1 (DPS 2.35)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 2.8448, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.36/14.54 (DPS 2.65)

BAT latest news (English)

BAT latest news (Chinese)