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Thursday, December 31, 2009

PETDAG / 5681 - 2010 Q2

My TP: 9.09+0.45 = 9.54 (PE 11, EPS 0.8268, DPS 0.45)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, 5% high dividend

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.1% to 4.57% but higher than last year 1.35%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 7.78% to 5151970 but profit drop 2.99% to 199217, mainly due to higher average product selling prices and higher operating expenditure; As compare to last year revenue drop 33.01% but profit growth 51.33%, mainly due to lower average product selling prices and higher product gross profit
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 1.05% to 4355222, assets increased 2.18% to 7463531 and liabilities increased 7.09% to 3108309; As compare to last year equity increased 6.58%, assets decreased 21.81% and liabilities decreased 43.06%
- Got FCF 590307, NCF 325345
- Profit margin compare to last Q decreased 0.43% to 3.87% but higher than last year 2.16%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.0542 to 0.7137 but compare to last year decreased 0.6222
- 15 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2005*4 = 0.802, estimate PE on current price 8.7 = 10.25 (DPS 0.48)
- From date 2009-08-26 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-19 was 9.15 and lowest price on 2009-09-28 was 8.43. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2067*4 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.52/9.65 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-05-26 to 2009-08-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-24 was 8.67 and lowest price on 2009-05-26 was 7.9. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1735*4 = 0.694, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.84/10.73 (DPS 0.45)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-25 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-16 was 8 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 7.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0428*4 = 0.1712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 44.1/40.3 (DPS 0.45)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.15 (declared 15 sen on Q2), 2009 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12 sen on Q2), 2008 = 0.45 (declared 33 sen on Q4 and 12% on Q2), 2007 = 0.3 (declared 20% on Q2 and 10% on Q2)


Wednesday, December 30, 2009

BSTEAD / 2771 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 4.96 (PE 10, EPS 0.4964, DPS 0.3)
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, high dividend

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.46% to 4.68% but lower than last year 9.55%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 11.19% to 1419107 and profit also increased 83.56% to 86163, mainly due to FFB crop rose 15%, Heavy Industries Division’s got improvements in billings and margins, Property Division’s 15% lower mainly due to lower contribution from the hotel operations, Finance & Investment Division’s largely improved on stronger contributions from Affin and BH Insurance, Manufacturing Division turned in a consistent set of results, while the Trading Division’s profit improved as it benefited from the stockholding gains from BHPetrol and profit from the LCCT Baggage Handling system project; As compare to last year revenue drop 25.73% and profit drop 47.46%, mainly due to lower average palm oil price and FFB crop 5% lower, Heavy Industries Division due to slower progress of work and cost escalation, Property Division's 44% lower due to the start up cost of the recently opened Royale Chulan Hotel and absence of corporate lot sales, Finance & Investment Division improved due to BH
Insurance increase in underwriting and investment income, Affin Group increases in net interest and Islamic banking income, while loan provision was also lower and Trading Division posted a lower profit
- Equity compare to last Q increased 24.03% to 4147754, assets increased 1.56% to 8839714 and liabilities decreased 12.46% to 4691960; As compare to last year equity increased 26.08%, assets increased 2.15% and liabilities decreased 12.53%
- Got FCF 42909, NCF -157620
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.39% to 6.07% but lower than last year 2.33%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.4715 to 1.1312 and compare to last year also decreased 0.4994
- 7.5 sen dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1241*4 = 0.4964, estimate PE on current price 3.5 = 6.45 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-08-22 to 2009-11-23 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-20 was 3.63 and lowest price on 2009-11-06 was 3.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0721*4 = 0.2884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/10.58 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-05-19 to 2009-08-21 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 4.52 and lowest price on 2009-08-20 was 3.56. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0934*4 = 0.3736, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.3/8.73 (DPS 0.3)
- From date 2009-02-27 to 2009-05-18 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-13 was 3.74 and lowest price on 2009-03-17 was 3.06. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1699*4 = 0.6796, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.06/4.06 (DPS 0.3)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.175 (proposed 7.5 sen on Q3, 5 sen on Q2 and 5 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.3 (proposed 25% on Q4, 15% on Q3, 10% on Q2 and 10% on Q1), 2007 = 0.3 (proposed 36% on Q4, 14% on Q3 and 10% on Q2)


Tuesday, December 29, 2009

PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Q2

My TP: 6.03 (PE 10, EPS 0.5976, DPS 0.05)
OSK TP: 5.9
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow, low debt

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.51% to 1.56% and also higher than last year 0.77%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 13.61% to 2104090 and profit also increased 50.43% to 82062, mainly due to higher domestic sales volume and profit margins which continued to strengthen through better product mix; As compare to last year revenue growth 14.45% and profit growth 87.31%, mainly due to improvement in overall margins resulting from the introduction of the Exora
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.51% to 5273905, assets decreased 2.61% to 7075541 and liabilities decreased 12.94% to 1801636; As compare to last year equity decreased 4.46%, assets decreased 3.43% and liabilities decreased 0.28%
- Got FCF 614093, NCF 528652
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.95% to 3.9% and also higher than last year 1.52%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0567 to 0.3416 but compare to last year increased 0.0143
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate PE on current price 4 = 6.61 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-23 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 2.93. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 3.06 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 2.61.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-31 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-21 was 3.12 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 1.5.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on Q2)


HAIO / 7668 - 2010 Q2

OSK TP: 10.55
My TP: 8.17 (PE 8, EPS 0.9696, DPS 0.42)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q decreased 0.1% to 9.6% but still higher than last year 3.22%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 10.9% to 132374 but profit increased 9.33% to 20186, mainly due to focusing on high margin products from the wholesale and retail divisions reduction exercises
- Revenue compare to last year grow 51.65% and profit growth 85.38%, mainly due to higher sales generated by its principal subsidiaries, the MLM and retail divisions, and higher
rental income
- Equity compare to last Q increased 10.46% to 210185, assets increased 7.35% to 295407 and liabilities increased 0.36% to 85222
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 4.15% to 6626
- Got FCF 25227, NCF 24078
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.82% to 15.25% and also higher than last year 2.78%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0408 to 0.4055 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0551
- Declared 10% dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate PE on current price 8.4 = 8.23(DPS 0.42)
- From date 2009-09-30 to 2009-12-22 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-11-11 was 7.99 and lowest price on 2009-09-30 was 6.03. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- From date 2009-06-27 to 2009-09-29 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-29 was 5.69 and lowest price on 2009-06-29 was 4.5. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-26 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 4.44 and lowest price on 2009-03-3 was 3.36. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.1 (declare 10% on 2010 Q2), 2009 = 0.42 (proposed 32% on 2010 Q1 and 10% on 2009 Q2), 2008 = 0.4 (proposed 32% on 2009 Q1 and 8% on 2008 Q2)

Lesson learned:
- PE should use higher since revenue strong growth
- Bonus and share split announced maybe is a catalyst for stock price to shoot up


Monday, December 28, 2009

ADVENTA / 7191 - 2009 Q4

My TP: 2.45 (PE 16, EPS 0.1488, DPS 0.07)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q4 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.41% to 2.91% but still lower than last year 0.3%
- Revenue compare to last Q grow 2.82% to 74752 and profit increased 17.76% to 5398, mainly due to progressive addition of capacity in the surgical and dental gloves products and cost reduction exercises
- Revenue compare to last year grow 15.15% but profit drop 0.68%,
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.17% to 185281, assets increased 0.64% to 344228 and liabilities increased 0.03% to 158947
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 1.22% to 1212
- Got FCF 3463, NCF 1529
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.91% to 7.22% but lower than last year 1.15%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0097 to 0.1343 and compare to last year also decreased 0.0429
- Proposed 4 sen dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate PE on current price 2.97 = 19.49(DPS 0.07)
- From date 2009-09-16 to 2009-12-22 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-12-21 was 2.96 and lowest price on 2009-10-02 was 1.55. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.73/11.68 (DPS 0.06)
- From date 2009-07-01 to 2009-09-15 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-10 was 2.11 and lowest price on 2009-07-07 was 1.08. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.84/9.375 (DPS 0.06)
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-30 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 1.22 and lowest price on 2009-03-31 was 0.82. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.61/8.26 (DPS 0.06)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.03 (proposed 3 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.044 (proposed 4.4 sen on Q4), 2007 = 0.03 (proposed 6% on Q4)


Sunday, December 27, 2009

PBBANK / 1295 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 10.62 (PE 13.6, EPS 0.7408, DPS 0.55)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.27% to 5.81% but lower than last year 0.42%
- Interest income compare to last Q grow 2.47% to 1807110 but compare to last year drop 15.62%; Profit compare to last Q increased 4.63% to 5482522 and also higher than last year 3.68%, mainly due to strong loans and deposits growth and stable asset quality
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 0.25% to 11006064, assets increased 2.45% to 209043482 and liabilities increased 2.61% to 198037418
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 0.21% to 708221
- Got FCF 6559853 and NCF 4928164
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.73% to 35.36% and also higher than last year 6.58%
- DE compare to last Q increased 0.501 to 17.9935 but if compare to last year decreased 0.2957
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1852*4 = 0.7408, estimate PE on current price 10.43(DPS 0.55) = 14.08


Saturday, December 26, 2009

GAMUDA / 5398 - 2010 Q1

My TP: 2.11 (PE 16, EPS 0.1244, DPS 0.12)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.57% to 1.92% and also higher than last year 0.16%
- Revenue compare to last year grow 1.63% to 623960 and profit increased 14.5% to 63017, mainly due to higher contributions from all divisions
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.34% to 3282932, assets increased 0.86% to 5928950 and liabilities decreased 0.92% to 40868
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 6.35% to 49732
- Got FCF 156877 and NCF 185670
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 5.59% to 10.1% and also higher than last year 1.14%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0266 to 0.806 but if compare to last year increased 0.0625
- Declared 6 sen dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate PE on current price 2.61 = 20.98
- From date 2009-09-30 to 2009-12-22 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-23 was 3.34 and lowest price on 2009-12-21 was 2.65. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.84/30.81
- From date 2009-06-26 to 2009-09-29 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-03 was 3.38 and lowest price on 2009-07-06 was 2.68. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.58/29
- From date 2009-03-27 to 2009-06-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 2.8 and lowest price on 2009-03-31 was 1.98. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/20.29
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.06 (declared 6 sen on Q1), 2009 = 0.08 (declared 4% on Q3 and 4% on Q1), 2008 = 0.25 (declared 12.5% on Q3 and 12.5% on Q1)

Lesson learned:
- This company PE so high is normal to market point of view
- Company revenue at growing uptrend


Friday, December 25, 2009

TONGHER / 5010 - 2009 Q3

My TP: 1.11 (PE 10, EPS 0.1112)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Although profit increased but revenue still low, overvalue

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q rebound from negative to 1.16% but still lower than last year 2.04%
- Revenue compare to last Q grow 7.91% to 48468 and profit rebound from negative to 3538, but still lower than last year 6223, mainly due to higher cost of raw materials
- Equity compare to last Q increase 1.34% to 304299, assets increased 1.34% to 345167 and liabilities increased 1.32% to 40868
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 1.63% to 29303
- Got FCF 30385, net cash flow increased 11380
- Profit margin compare to last Q rebound from negative to 7.3% and also higher than last year 6.03%
- DE compare to last Q are same at 0.1343 and also better than last year 0.2665, this is historical lowest
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate PE on current price 1.66 = 14.93
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on 2008 Q4), 2007 = 0.16 (proposed 16 sen on 2007 Q4)


Tuesday, December 22, 2009

MAHSING / 8583 - 2009 Q3

Maybank TP: 2.56
CIMB TP: 2.34
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Revenue decreased, bad cash flow and receivables too high, possibly bad debt

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE no surprise at around 3.2%
- Revenue compare to last Q drop 19.19% to 135143 but profit grow 2.11% to 23523, mainly due to the cost reduced
- Equity compare to last Q increase 3.31% to 730096, assets increased 0.23% to 1206783 and liabilities decreased 4.15% to 476687
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 1.87% to 730096
- Cash flow was bad, cash at end of financial period was decreasing to 115278
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 3.63% to 17.41%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0508 to 0.6529, second low in historical
- Receivables hit historical high at 327147
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.373*4 = 0.1492, estimate PE on current price 1.73(DPS 0.08) = 11.6
- From date 2009-08-20 to 2009-10-28 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-04 was 2.08 and lowest price on 2009-10-28 was 1.78. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-19 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-14 was 2.05 and lowest price on 2009-05-29 was 1.72. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- From date 2009-02-25 to 2009-05-28 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 1.85 and lowest price on 2009-02-26 was 1.52. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on 2008 Q4), 2008 = 0.08 (proposed 16% on 2007 Q4)


Monday, December 21, 2009

PARKSON / 5657 - 2010 Q1

OSK TP: 7.11 (05 Feb 10)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: EPS big depend on gain on dilution of retail operations and not sure whether is consistent or not, possibly the price is over value

My opinion based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last year drop 0.38% to 2.43%
- Revenue compare to last year grow 3.34% to 641864 and profit grow 7.35% to 67422, mainly attributed to the new stores opening and same store sales growth(Muslim festive season)
- DE compare to last Q increase 0.0481 to 1.4793, second low in historical
- Equity compare to last Q increase 3.2% to 2770232, assets increased 5.24% to 6868252 and liabilities increased 6.67% to 4098020
- Got FCF 235201 and NCF 241190
- Profit margin compare to last year increased 0.0031% to 10.5%
- Long term borrowing decreased but short term borrowing increased, guess take short term borrowing to repay long term borrowing
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.513+0.4234)/2 = 04682, estimate PE on current price 5.17 = 11.04
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-17 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-14 was 5.46 and lowest price on 2009-10-06 was 4.96. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/11.71
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-23 was 5.65 and lowest price on 2009-06-18 was 4.7. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/11.1
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 4.74 and lowest price on 2009-02-26 was 3.32. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/7.84
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5% on 2009 Q4), 2008 = 0.15 (proposed 5% on 2008 Q4)


Friday, December 18, 2009

KELADI / 6769 - 2010 Q3

My TP: 0.255(PE 11, EPS 0.0232)+0.015(DPS) = 0.27
My stock cost: 0.205
My total dividend collect: 0.035
My decision: HOLD
Reason: Revenue increased, good cash flow and high dividend
Risk: 1st quarter normally low revenue

My opinion based on 2010 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE increasd to 3.3%, average range
- Higher profit was mainly attributed to completion in construction of existing project (Taman Lagenda Phases 1 & 2) and revenue derived from new launching (Taman Lagenda Phases 3 & 4)
- DE dropped to 8.91%, payables and accruals decreased to 13116, average range
- Got FCF 19113, i believe it use this money to reduce the liabilities, company cash still got 53610, hjgher than last year
- Profit margin increased to 31.86%, development cost of projects started reducing to normal range
- No interim dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0078*4 = 0.0312, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate PE on current price 0.15 = 6.47
- From date 2009-09-26 to 2009-12-17 after 2010 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-16 was 0.16 and lowest price on 2009-10-12 was 0.145. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/11.69
- From date 2009-06-27 to 2009-09-25 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-27 was 0.175 and lowest price on 2009-09-03 was 0.145. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.42/8.63
- From date 2009-03-28 to 2009-06-26 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-10 was 0.18 and lowest price on 2009-03-30 was 0.12. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.52/9.68
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.015 (proposed 15% on 2009 Q4), 2008 = 0.025 (proposed 10% on 2008 Q3 and 15% on 2008 Q4), 2007 = 0.015 (proposed 15% on 2007 Q4)


Tuesday, December 15, 2009

GENTING / 3182 - 2009 Q3

OSK Research TP: 7.9 (26 Nov 09)
My TP: 6.39+0.07(DPS) = 6.46 (PE 16, EPS 0.3996)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My opinion based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Revenue was increasing, Leisure & Hospitality Division(Resorts
World Genting and the GENS Group’s UK casino) and the Power Division recorded higher revenue whilst the other business divisions recorded lower revenue.
- Resorts World Genting revenue increased mainly due to higher volume of business. The UK casinos however recorded lower revenue due to lower business volume. The decrease was further exacerbated by the weakening of the Sterling Pound against the Ringgit Malaysia.
- Increase in pre-opening expenses incurred for Resorts World Sentosa.
- Higher revenue from the Power Division arose mainly from the Meizhou Wan power plant due to higher generation of electricity and lower coal prices.
- Revenue from the Plantation Division declined mainly due to lower palm products prices and a lower FFB production.
- The softer property market conditions during the current quarter caused a decline in the revenue from the Property Division.
- The lower revenue from the Oil & Gas Division reflected mainly lower average oil prices.
- DE 0.676 consider good
- Minority interest in positive growing
- No FCF, cash mainly from borrowing, deposit also increased
- ROE quite low
- Profit margin at 15%, still low
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate PE on current price 7.15 = 17.89
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-23 was 7.74 and lowest price on 2009-09-02 was 6.45. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.54/27.95
- From date 2009-05-29 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-28 was 6.7 and lowest price on 2009-06-18 was 5.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.18/23.3
- Genting Casinos new operator of casino at Cairo hotel
- Genting's Cairo casino to make minimal contribution to group


LCL / 7177 - 2009 Q3

My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: PN17, drop revenue, loss, bad cash flow and DE too high

My opinion based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Revenue keep droping to 57786, highest at 14790, mainly due to the lower progress billing for most of the on-going Dubai projects
- Loss increasing to 58635 compare to previous quarter 15155, mainly attributed to the unexpected delay in the project resulting in cost overrun arising from the prolongation of projects
- DE too high at 6.2091, loan too much
- Totally negative cash flow
- Asset reduced a lot


Saturday, December 12, 2009

BHIC / 8133 - 2009 Q3

TA Securities Research TP: 6.1 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 5.64 (PE 14, EPS 0.3984, DPS 0.055)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Bad cash flow

My opinion based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.57% to 6.63%
- Revenue compare to last Q increased 19.88% to 144206 was due to progress billing on milestones achieved for various project
- Profit compare to last Q increased 40.49% to 24750 because increased progress billing and improved share of results in associates
- Equity compare to last Q increase 7.33% to 373442, assets increased 1.61% to 507546 and liabilities decreased 11.53% to 134104
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 7.33% to 373442
- Cash flow very bad, cash at end of financial period was decreasing to 33232
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 2.52% to 17.16%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0765 to 0.3591, average range
- Receivables compare to last Q increased 12.45% to 235244
- Long term or short term borrowing increase a lot
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0996*4 = 0.3984, estimate PE on current price 4.95 = 12.42
- From date 2009-08-07 to 2009-11-12 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-10 was 5.35 and lowest price on 2009-10-28 was 4.73. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0709*4 = 0.2836, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.86/16.68
- From date 2009-05-16 to 2009-08-06 after 2009 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-05 was 4.86 and lowest price on 2009-05-18 was 3.24. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0616*4 = 0.2464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.72/13.15
- From date 2009-02-18 to 2009-05-15 after 2008 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-12 was 3.38 and lowest price on 2009-06-16 was 2.4. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0602*4 = 0.2408, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.04/9.97
- Divident in sen 2008 = 0.055 (proposed 5.5% on 2008 Q4), 2008 = 0.015 (proposed 1.5% on 2007 Q4)
- Boustead Naval Shipyard (BNS) has received Letter of Award from MOD at a total sum of RM703.8mn (4 year duration)


Friday, December 11, 2009

MUHIBAH / 5703 - 2009 Q3

S&P Research TP: 1.3 (01 Dec 09)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: DE very high and profit unstable

My study based on 2009 Q3 report (number in '000):
- Turn earn to loss, but revenue still high, mainly costs overrun suffered in YemenLNG jetty project caused by higher cost at final stage of completion and prolongation cost incurred underdifficult weather condition
- Got highest FCF 235914
- DE was increasing to 3.5688, very high
- Increase borrowing but receivables also hit highest amount
- 2008 highest price = 4.2 on 2008-01-11 after 2007 Q3 result announced, the result achieved EPS 0.457 and accumulative EPS 0.1284, estimate EPS for 2008 = 0.2, estimate highest PE = 21
- 2008 lowest price = 0.685 on 2008-10-28 after 2008 Q2 result announced, the result achieved EPS 0.0535 and accumulative EPS 0.1052, estimate EPS still 0.2, thus 2008 lowest PE = 3.43. The reason so low because economic crisis.
- 2009 highest price = 1.63 on 2009-06-12 after 2009 Q1 result announced, the result achieved profit EPS = 0.0389, estimate 2009 EPS = 0.16, estimate 2009 highest PE = 10.19
- 2009 lowest price = 0.655 on 2009-03-12 after 2008 Q4 result announced, the result got a big loss, eps = -0.0882 and accumulative EPS 0.0556


MALTON / 6181 - 2010 Q1

S&P Research TP: 0.5 (03 Dec 09)
My TP: 0.74 (PE 10, eps 0.0736)
My decision: NOT BUY
Reason: Although profit increased but revenue drop, cash level in negative

My opinion based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 1.09% to 1.51%
- Revenue compare to last Q decreased 23.43% to 79717 because lower billings from construction and project management division
- Profit compare to last Q increased 258.82%, mainly attributed to improved contributions from the property development division and the positive effects of costs containment measures
- Equity compare to last Q decreased 0.31%, assets decreased 3.42% to 780503 and liabilities decreased 6.86% to 356456
- Minority interest compare to last Q decreased 100%
- Got little FCF 1803, but cash at end of financial period was negative
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 6.32% to 8.03%
- DE compare to last quarter decreased 0.059 to 0.8406
- No dividend recommended
- My highest estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0184*4 = 0.0736, estimate PE on current price 0.38 = 5.16
- My lowest estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate PE on current price 0.38 = 19
- From date 2009-08-29 to 2009-11-25 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-11-03 was 0.35. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.005*4 = 0.02, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.5/17.5
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-28 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-13 was 0.43 and lowest price on 2009-07-13 was 0.3. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.003*4 = 0.012, estimate highest/lowest PE = 35.83/25
- From date 2009-02-20 to 2009-05-27 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-14 was 0.39 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 0.26. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0067*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.55/9.7
- Divident in sen 2007 = 0.01 (proposed 1% after 2007 Q4)
- The acquisition of 20% equity interest in Austin Heights Sdn Bhd completed at the end of the quarter is expected to contribute to the medium and long term profitability of the Group.


Thursday, December 10, 2009

KELADI / 6769 - 2010 Q2

My opinion based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE was dropping to 1.29%/Q, average were > 2%
- Profit also dropping to 2345, average were > 3500, profit drop due to lower contribution from the property development activities caused by the global financial crisis which has affected sales of houses.
- Watching liability (payables and accruals) whether will it drop at next Q, current at 19075, DE 11.55%
- Got FCF 13630, company cash increasing to 56658, average 45000
- Profit margin ~21%, second low compare to previous, profit margin has been substantially reduced by the higher development cost of projects
- 2008 highest/lowest PE = 8.13/3.11, 2009 = 8.26/4.82, 2010 estimated eps = 0.013, 2010 estimated PE on current price = 11.54
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.015, 2008 = 0.025, 2007 = 0.015


BJTOTO / 1562 - 2010 Q2

Maybank Research TP: 4.05 (03 Dec 09)
OSK Research TP: 4.9 (11 Dec 09)
My TP: 4.88+0.29(DPS) = 5.17 (PE 16, eps 0.3048)
My stock cost: 4.14
My decision: HOLD
Reason: Undervalue, good cash flow and high dividend

My opinion based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE still high at 32.46% but drop from 46.47%, average 20-30%
- Revenue drop 8.99% compare to last year
- Equity increased 46.13%, assets increased 6.61% and liabilities decreased 2.81%
- DE drop from 4.1973 to 2.7916, but this rate still consider high, average ~1.8.
- Long term borrowing decreased 15.1% but short term borrowing increased 9.63%
- Deposit increased 18.05% and receivables increased 91.9%
- Free cash flow decreased if compare to last year, mainly due to cash flow from operating decreased
- Minority interest (MI) increased ~10% to 10624 after reducing > 60% to 9784 since highest MI on 2008 Q4
- Total treasury shares as at 31 July 2009 reduce to 5332
- No dividend proposed
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0762*4 = 0.3048, estimate PE on current price 4.34 = 13.29(DPS 0.29)
- From date 2009-09-10 to 2009-12-10 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-25 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-11-30 was 4.14. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0797*4 = 0.3188, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.14/12.08 (DPS 0.29)
- From date 2009-06-16 to 2009-09-09 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-16 was 5.25 and lowest price on 2009-07-15 was 4.24. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0854*4 = 0.3416, but this is too high, so use last 3 years average eps = (0.3268+0.276+0.2905)/3 = 0.2978, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.66/13.26 (DPS 0.29)
- From date 2009-03-17 to 2009-06-15 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-11 was 5 and lowest price on 2009-03-31 was 4.58. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0773*4 = 0.3092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.33/13.97 (DPS 0.26)
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.19 (proposed 19 sen on Q1), 2009 = 0.29 (proposed 11 sen on Q4, 5 sen on Q3, 7 sen on Q2 and 6 sen on Q1), 2008 = 0.35 (proposed 9 sen on Q4 8 sen on Q3, 8 sen on Q2 and 10 sen on Q1), 2007 = 0.45 (proposed 7.5 sen on Q4, 12.5 sen on Q3, 12.5 sen on Q2 and 12.5 sen on Q1)