PROTON / 5304 - 2010 Q2

My TP: 6.03 (PE 10, EPS 0.5976, DPS 0.05)
OSK TP: 5.9
My decison: BUY
Reason: Undervalue, revenue growth, good cash flow, low debt

My study based on 2010 Q2 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.51% to 1.56% and also higher than last year 0.77%
- Revenue compare to last Q growth 13.61% to 2104090 and profit also increased 50.43% to 82062, mainly due to higher domestic sales volume and profit margins which continued to strengthen through better product mix; As compare to last year revenue growth 14.45% and profit growth 87.31%, mainly due to improvement in overall margins resulting from the introduction of the Exora
- Equity compare to last Q increased 1.51% to 5273905, assets decreased 2.61% to 7075541 and liabilities decreased 12.94% to 1801636; As compare to last year equity decreased 4.46%, assets decreased 3.43% and liabilities decreased 0.28%
- Got FCF 614093, NCF 528652
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 0.95% to 3.9% and also higher than last year 1.52%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0567 to 0.3416 but compare to last year increased 0.0143
- No dividend declared
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate PE on current price 4 = 6.61 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-08-19 to 2009-11-23 after 2010 Q1 result announced, highest price on 2009-09-23 was 4.48 and lowest price on 2009-08-19 was 2.93. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)
- From date 2009-05-30 to 2009-08-18 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-11 was 3.06 and lowest price on 2009-06-22 was 2.61.
- From date 2009-02-28 to 2009-05-31 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-04-21 was 3.12 and lowest price on 2009-03-18 was 1.5.
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5 sen on Q2)