GAMUDA / 5398 - 2010 Q1

My TP: 2.11 (PE 16, EPS 0.1244, DPS 0.12)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: Overvalue

My study based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last Q increased 0.57% to 1.92% and also higher than last year 0.16%
- Revenue compare to last year grow 1.63% to 623960 and profit increased 14.5% to 63017, mainly due to higher contributions from all divisions
- Equity compare to last Q increased 2.34% to 3282932, assets increased 0.86% to 5928950 and liabilities decreased 0.92% to 40868
- Minority interest compare to last Q increased 6.35% to 49732
- Got FCF 156877 and NCF 185670
- Profit margin compare to last Q increased 5.59% to 10.1% and also higher than last year 1.14%
- DE compare to last Q decreased 0.0266 to 0.806 but if compare to last year increased 0.0625
- Declared 6 sen dividend
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate PE on current price 2.61 = 20.98
- From date 2009-09-30 to 2009-12-22 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-23 was 3.34 and lowest price on 2009-12-21 was 2.65. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.84/30.81
- From date 2009-06-26 to 2009-09-29 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-08-03 was 3.38 and lowest price on 2009-07-06 was 2.68. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.58/29
- From date 2009-03-27 to 2009-06-25 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-06-12 was 2.8 and lowest price on 2009-03-31 was 1.98. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.69/20.29
- Divident in sen 2010 = 0.06 (declared 6 sen on Q1), 2009 = 0.08 (declared 4% on Q3 and 4% on Q1), 2008 = 0.25 (declared 12.5% on Q3 and 12.5% on Q1)

Lesson learned:
- This company PE so high is normal to market point of view
- Company revenue at growing uptrend