PARKSON / 5657 - 2010 Q1

OSK TP: 7.11 (05 Feb 10)
My decison: NOT BUY
Reason: EPS big depend on gain on dilution of retail operations and not sure whether is consistent or not, possibly the price is over value

My opinion based on 2010 Q1 report (number in '000):
- ROE compare to last year drop 0.38% to 2.43%
- Revenue compare to last year grow 3.34% to 641864 and profit grow 7.35% to 67422, mainly attributed to the new stores opening and same store sales growth(Muslim festive season)
- DE compare to last Q increase 0.0481 to 1.4793, second low in historical
- Equity compare to last Q increase 3.2% to 2770232, assets increased 5.24% to 6868252 and liabilities increased 6.67% to 4098020
- Got FCF 235201 and NCF 241190
- Profit margin compare to last year increased 0.0031% to 10.5%
- Long term borrowing decreased but short term borrowing increased, guess take short term borrowing to repay long term borrowing
- No dividend propose
- My estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = (0.513+0.4234)/2 = 04682, estimate PE on current price 5.17 = 11.04
- From date 2009-08-27 to 2009-11-17 after 2009 Q4 result announced, highest price on 2009-10-14 was 5.46 and lowest price on 2009-10-06 was 4.96. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.9/11.71
- From date 2009-05-28 to 2009-08-26 after 2009 Q3 result announced, highest price on 2009-07-23 was 5.65 and lowest price on 2009-06-18 was 4.7. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.34/11.1
- From date 2009-02-26 to 2009-05-27 after 2009 Q2 result announced, highest price on 2009-05-27 was 4.74 and lowest price on 2009-02-26 was 3.32. Estimate next 4Q eps = 0.4234, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/7.84
- Divident in sen 2009 = 0.05 (proposed 5% on 2009 Q4), 2008 = 0.15 (proposed 5% on 2008 Q4)