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Monday, October 31, 2011

KLCI Stock - GAMUDA / 5398 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)7,022,982,132 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.4-0.12)/0.2254 = 14.55 (Moderate)
Target Price3.61+0.12 = 3.73 (PE 16.0, EPS 0.2254, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price next uptrend start above 3
Comment
Revenue increased 30.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 13.4%, eps increased 7.9% and was sixth consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 39.3%), no cash generated from operating after deduct assets inceased if not will be enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 8.6% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, higher property development cost can indicate got new property project
First Support Price3.0
Second Support Price2.7
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
MIDF Target Price4.68 (2011-03-23)
Kenanga Target Price4.12 (2011-03-25)
AMMB Target Price3.82 (2011-06-14)
UOB Target Price4.4 (2011-06-20)
CIMB Target Price5.63 (2011-06-24)
OSK Target Price4.8 (2011-06-24)
TA Target Price4.32 (2011-06-24)
HwangDBS Target Price5.1 (2011-08-09)
Maybank Target Price4.1 (2011-09-12)
ECM Target Price2.94 (2011-09-30)
HLG Target Price3.81 (2011-09-30)
RHB Target Price3.41 (2011-10-03)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.94%
Dividend Yield3.53%
Profit Margin18.64%
Tax Rate16.37%
Asset Turnover0.354
Net Asset Value Per Share1.72
Net Tangible Asset per share1.67
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.72
Cash Per Share0.64
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1605
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.5377
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6386
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.994
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4853
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale94.2%
Days to sell the inventory211
Days to collect the receivables263
Days to pay the payables142

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 mainly resulted from higher contributions from all divisions

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to lower contributions from all segment offset by higher profit from associated company

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0542+0.0585)*2 = 0.2254, estimate PE on current price 3.4 = 14.55(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.177*1.1 = 0.1947, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.77/12.89 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0439*4*1.05 = 0.1844, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.77/18.71 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0789*2*1.05 = 0.1657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.98/20.64 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0371*4*1.1 = 0.1632, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.84/20.47 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0361*4 = 0.1444, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.73/20.78 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0336*4 = 0.1344, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.14/19.2 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0311*4 = 0.1244, estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.83/19.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0215*4 = 0.086, estimate highest/lowest PE = 38.02/30.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0231*4 = 0.0924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 36.36/27.81 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0244*4 = 0.0976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.59/19.26 (DPS 0.08)

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Sunday, October 30, 2011

KLCI Stock - KELADI / 6769 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)132,704,250 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.175-0.015)/0.025 = 6.40 (Moderate)
Target Price0.22+0.015 = 0.24 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.025, DPS 0.015)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 0.17
Comment
Revenue decreased 50.9% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.7%, eps decreased 15.1% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 104.5%, cash generated from operating is more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at very low level now, no significant increase in property development cost can indicate no new project
First Support Price0.16
Second Support Price0.15
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.78%
Dividend Yield8.57%
Profit Margin53.39%
Tax Rate25.89%
Asset Turnover0.2576
Net Asset Value Per Share0.26
Net Tangible Asset per share0.26
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.62
Cash Per Share0.1
Liquidity Current Ratio7.2231
Liquidity Quick Ratio5.4968
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.3894
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.0892
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.08
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale193.1%
Days to sell the inventory319
Days to collect the receivables121
Days to pay the payables167

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to better performance from all division

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower progress revenue recognition

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.025(recent 4th qrt cum_eps), estimate PE on current price 0.175 = 6.4(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0227, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.15/6.89 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0212+0.018)/2 = 0.0196, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.44/8.16 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.017(recent 4 quarters eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.06/9.41 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*0.9 = 0.016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.19/9.06 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0178 (based on last year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.99/7.87 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0155 (13% drop from 0.0178), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10/9.03 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.0218+0.0289+0.019)/3 = 0.0232, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.6 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.5/10.48 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0042*4 = 0.0168, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.52/7.74 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0031*4 = 0.0124, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.11/8.06 (DPS 0.015)

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Saturday, October 29, 2011

KLCI Stock - HAIO / 7668 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)396,292,952 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.96-0.06)/0.1625 = 11.69 (High)
Target Price1.62+0.06 = 1.68 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1625, DPS 0.06)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 1.8
Comment
Revenue decreased 12.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.9%, eps decreased 9.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 0.9% of Group cash to cover investing expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, inventory increasing can indicate products demand increase, wholesale division got improved products margin
First Support Price1.9
Second Support Price1.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
RHB Target Price1.35 (2011-03-24)
Affin Target Price1.27 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price1.7 (2011-09-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.34%
Dividend Yield2.81%
Profit Margin21.71%
Tax Rate27.35%
Asset Turnover0.8242
Net Asset Value Per Share1.06
Net Tangible Asset per share1.06
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.57
Cash Per Share0.44
Liquidity Current Ratio4.3445
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.0123
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.4282
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2176
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1729
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale54.9%
Days to sell the inventory96
Days to collect the receivables35
Days to pay the payables48

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q1 mainly due to lower contribution from its principal subsidiary, the multi-level marketing (“MLM”) division which was attributable to the slowdown in recruitment of new members and lower level of sales from its members however revenue from the wholesale and retail divisions increased mainly due to the aggressive marketing strategies of the wholesale division and additional revenue generated from 4 new outlets set up by the retail division

- Higher pbt than FY11Q1 due to higher operating margin of 22% as compared to 20% for the same corresponding quarter in the previous year due to the increased contribution from higher margin products, lower costs of imported goods due to the strengthening of Ringgit Malaysia and general improvement in operational efficiency and productivity

- Lower revenue than FY11Q4 mainly due to lower sales as previous quarter got aggressive year-end sales compaign and above reason

- Lower pbt than FY11Q4 due to above reason however higher pbt in wholesale division due to greater contribution from high margin products coupled with the lower cost of imported goods

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0387*4*1.05 = 0.1625, estimate PE on current price 2.16 = 13.31(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = (0.0428+0.0318)*2*1.05 = 0.1567, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.37/9.41 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0318*4*1.05 = 0.1336, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.33/14.93 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0307*4*0.95 = 0.1167, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.91/18.25 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0391*4 = 0.1564, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.01/17.46 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0714*4 = 0.2856*1.1(10% QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.3142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.16/8.78 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.3729, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.17 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2424*4 = 0.9696, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.78/7.44(DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2217*4 = 0.8868, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.54/6.33 (DPS 0.42)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1778*4 = 0.7112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.76 (DPS 0.4)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1463*4 = 0.5852, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.9/5.06 (DPS 0.4)

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Friday, October 28, 2011

KLCI Stock - SCIENTX / 4731 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)529,000,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.3-0.05)/0.3602 = 6.25 (Moderate)
Target Price3.60+0.05 = 3.65 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.3602, DPS 0.05)
DecisionBUY
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.1%, eps increased 1.9% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 16.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly stronger liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from moderate to below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower receivables can indicate sales slow down in Manufacturing division, property development cost also no significant increase which can indicate no new project
First Support Price2.25
Second Support Price2.14
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price2.9 (2011-09-22)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity15.26%
Dividend Yield2.17%
Profit Margin12.65%
Tax Rate16.04%
Asset Turnover1.1089
Net Asset Value Per Share2.17
Net Tangible Asset per share2.17
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.97
Cash Per Share0.19
Liquidity Current Ratio1.5425
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.8142
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2248
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4685
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.302
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale12.3%
Days to sell the inventory69
Days to collect the receivables49
Days to pay the payables71

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 was contributed by both manufacturing and property division

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 mainly higher contribution from Manufacturing division despite lower in Property Development

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0948*4*0.95 = 0.3602, estimate PE on current price 2.3 = 6.25(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4*1.05 = 0.3982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.76/4.9 (DPS 0.05)

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Tuesday, October 25, 2011

KLCI Stock - INGRESS / 7112 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)60,672,000 (Very Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.79/0.0958 = 8.25 (High)
Target Price0.0958*5.0 = 0.48 (PE 5.0, EPS 0.0958)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 0.81
Comment
Revenue increased 1.7% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.9%, eps decreased 46% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.6%, cash generated from operating after deduct operating expenses not enough to cover financing expenses hence generated cash from borrowing but also not enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at very high level now, all accounting ratio are good, revenue and profit of automotive division keep decreasing, power and engineering projects remaining loss, inventory increasing which may indicate revenue going to increase
First Support Price0.77
Second Support Price0.75
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.37%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin3.01%
Tax Rate11.71%
Asset Turnover1.2474
Net Asset Value Per Share2.19
Net Tangible Asset per share2.14
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.36
Cash Per Share0.84
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1654
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9231
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.2709
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.1045
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5973
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale5.3%
Days to sell the inventory30
Days to collect the receivables76
Days to pay the payables54

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pat than FY11Q2 mainly due to lower minority interest(MI) in current quarter

- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to the impact of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan especially to the Thailand's automotive industry

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0228*4*1.05 = 0.0958(if deduct additional RM2 million MI), estimate PE on current price 0.79 = 8.25
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1151*1.05 = 0.1209(exclude RM4.7 million other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.6/5.75
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0274*4*1.05 = 0.1151, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.86/6.47
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0272*4*1.05 = 0.1142, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.36/5.95
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1288*1.05 = 0.1352, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.62/5.18
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0322*4 = 0.1288(0.0322 is eps after exclude 8 million from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.41/4.81
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0346*4 = 0.1384, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.99/3.76
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4 = 0.1428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.67/4.1
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.023*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.24/3.53

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Monday, October 24, 2011

KLCI Stock - IRCB / 2127 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Par ValueRM 0.20
BoardMain

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now0.18/0.0066 = 27.27 (High)
Target Price0.0066*6.0 = 0.04 (PE 6.0, EPS 0.0066)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price next uptrend above 0.16
Comment
Revenue increased 45.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.9%, eps increased 13% loss and largely turned into loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, no cash generated from operating and cash from bank borrowing also not enough to cover all expenses hence spent 20% of Group cash to cover, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate slow down in sales, benefit from latex price decreasing, benefit from strengthening of USD against Ringgit
First Support Price0.145
Second Support Price0.125
Risk RatingHIGH

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-49.91%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin-18.27%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.6557
Net Asset Value Per Share0.15
Net Tangible Asset per share0.15
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.83
Cash Per Share0.09
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4388
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.036
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6585
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1258
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5296
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.8%
Days to sell the inventory68
Days to collect the receivables90
Days to pay the payables30

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher loss before tax mainly due to the high latex prices and weakening of the USD. In addition, the provision for doubtful debts of RM1.42 million and stocks write down of RM0.58 million which were non-recurring in nature had cause further deterioration of the Group's result

- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate PE on current price 0.18 = 27.27
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 27.27/17.42
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced due to loss, if use eps from FY2010Q3 to FY2011Q2 = 0.0066, estimate highest/lowest PE = 40.15/23.48
- No estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced due to exclude other income will be a loss, if use eps from FY2010Q2 to FY2011Q1 = 0.0079, estimate highest/lowest PE = 32.28/2
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0021*2*1.05 = 0.0044(exclude gain from sale of land), estimate highest/lowest PE = 118.18/51.14
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0079(remain recent last 4Q cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 102.53/48.73
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0022*4 = 0.0088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 128.41/67.61

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Saturday, October 22, 2011

KLCI Stock - ADVENTA / 7191 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)255,152,235 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.67-0.02)/0.0728 = 22.66 (High)
Target Price0.73+0.02 = 0.75 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0728, DPS 0.02)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price sustain above 1.7
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.7% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.5%, eps decreased 12.3% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 52.2%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio from above moderate to high level now, all accounting ratio are good, maintaining high inventory can mean demand still strong, benefit from USD strengthening and latex price decreasing
First Support Price1.54
Second Support Price1.45
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.49 (2011-09-29)
OSK Target Price2 (2011-09-29)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity10.92%
Dividend Yield4.19%
Profit Margin2.90%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.8327
Net Asset Value Per Share1.47
Net Tangible Asset per share1.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.01
Cash Per Share0.41
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4406
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9523
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3985
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.1576
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5356
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale17.1%
Days to sell the inventory72
Days to collect the receivables79
Days to pay the payables42

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 due to weaknesses in USD and higher raw material cost despite achieving cost savings across the Group

- Lower revenue and pbt due to Ringgit contributed to the small drop and earnings are still weak from sustained commodity prices

- Internal growth grew at all subsidiaries except in Uruguay where a severe winter cut off fuel supplies, reducing production output

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.013*4*1.4 = 0.0728(exclude RM2 million from tax and other income), estimate PE on current price 1.67 = 22.66(DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.03*4*1.3 = 0.156, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.69/8.85 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0265*4*1.3 = 0.1378(slowly recover), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.91/13.5 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/12.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.055*4*0.95 = 0.209, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/8.71 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0434*4 = 0.1736*1.1(QbQ improvement adjustment) = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.81/11.78 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.063*4 = 0.252, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.36/11.35 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0372*4 = 0.1488, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.83/18.28 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0319*4 = 0.1276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.2/11.36 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0272*4 = 0.1088, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.39/7.77 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0232*4 = 0.092, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.04/8.26 (DPS 0.06)

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Friday, October 21, 2011

KLCI Stock - ICAP / 5108 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)281,400,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
DecisionNot interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 1.98
Comment
Revenue decreased 11.5% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 85.5%, eps decreased 39% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 90.1%, got cash generated from operating but lower than preceding year, latest NAV at RM2.77, slightly decreased
First Support Price2.15
Second Support Price2.05
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity4.40%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin83.59%
Tax Rate12.79%
Asset Turnover0.0676
Net Asset Value Per Share2.63
Net Tangible Asset per share2.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.77
Cash Per Share0.89
Liquidity Current Ratio35.4243
Liquidity Quick Ratio35.4243
Liquidity Cash Ratio34.0558
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.01
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0099
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale501.7%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables23
Days to pay the payables13

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- The NAV per share decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter ended 31 August 2011 to RM2.63, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.77
- The NAV per share increased by 8% in the fourth quarter ended 31 May 2011 to RM2.77, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.56
- The NAV per share increased by 4% in the third quarter ended 28 February 2011 to RM2.56, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.47
- The NAV per share increased by 6% in the second quarter ended 30 November 2010 to RM2.47, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.32
- The NAV per share increased by 10% in the first quarter ended 31 August 2010 to RM2.32, compared with the preceding quarter of RM2.1

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Thursday, October 20, 2011

KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,102,914,255 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.11-0.1034)/0.1526 = 13.15 (High)
Target Price1.83+0.1034 = 1.93 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1526, DPS 0.1034)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price next uptrend start above 2
Comment
Revenue decreased 0.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, eps decreased 20.8 and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.1%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses and still got borrowings to cover investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio but still at low level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, lower inventory can translate into sales slow down
First Support Price2.0
Second Support Price1.8
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
Maybank Target Price3.3 (2011-02-09)
RHB Target Price3.02 (2011-02-22)
OSK Target Price2.89 (2011-02-25)
CIMB Target Price3.74 (2011-05-27)
HLG Target Price3.11 (2011-05-27)
MIDF Target Price2.8 (2011-05-27)
Affin Target Price2.7 (2011-09-20)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity8.88%
Dividend Yield4.90%
Profit Margin7.71%
Tax Rate14.51%
Asset Turnover0.6558
Net Asset Value Per Share1.45
Net Tangible Asset per share1.44
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.74
Cash Per Share0.18
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4558
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.4012
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1191
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.572
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6104
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale28.7%
Days to sell the inventory256
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables34

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue mainly attributable to lower export tonnages as a result of disruption in demand growth momentum in the international market on the back of political unrest in Middle East and North Africa region in addition to the earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan

- Lower pbt mainly due to depressed international steel prices while recognising higher input costs

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate PE on current price 2.11 = 13.15(DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

ANNJOO latest news (English)

ANNJOO latest news (Chinese)



KLCI Stock - PROTON / 5304 - 2012 Quarter 1

PROTON HOLDINGS BERHAD

Company Description
Proton Holdings Berhad operates in the automobile industry. The Company is engaged in manufacturing, assembling, trading and the provision of engineering, and other services in respect of motor vehicles and related products. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in vehicle engineering, research and development, manufacturing, distribution sales and after-sales services. The portfolio of PROTON models includes the family-sedan Waja, Gen.2, Perdana V6, Arena, Saga range, Savvy, Satria Neo and the Persona. Its subsidiaries include Perusahaan Otomobil Nasional Sdn. Bhd., Proton Tanjung Malim Sdn. Bhd., Proton Marketing Sdn. Bhd. and Lotus Advance Technologies Sdn. Bhd. On May 15, 2008, the Company acquired Lotus Lightweight Structures Holdings Ltd. During the fiscal year end March 31, 2009, the Company liquidated Smith & Sons Motors Ltd, Proton Direct Ltd., Proton Cars (Europe) Ltd.

Company Info
Listing Date1992-06-26
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,449,922,325 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorConsumer Products
Major IndustryAutomotive Manufacturing & Distribution
Sub IndustryAutomotive Related Services
Websitehttp://www.proton.com/

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.64-0.2)/0.3142 = 7.77 (Moderate)
Target Price3.14+0.2 = 3.34 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.3142, DPS 0.2)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price got strong uptrend signal
Comment
Revenue decreased 14.7% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, eps decreased 92.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 94.6% (due to LGIL expenses), low cash generated from operating but cash from financing more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price2.5
Second Support Price2.4
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price4.7 (2011-01-10)
UOB Target Price3.75 (2011-02-17)
TA Target Price4.52 (2011-02-28)
AMMB Target Price5.1 (2011-03-04)
JF Apex Target Price4.48 (2011-05-24)
Affin Target Price3.3 (2011-06-03)
CIMB Target Price3.5 (2011-09-26)
MIDF Target Price2.7 (2011-10-04)
OSK Target Price2 (2011-10-12)
Maybank Target Price2.64 (2011-10-18)
RHB Target Price2.9 (2011-10-19)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity1.32%
Dividend Yield3.79%
Profit Margin0.54%
Tax Rate62.39%
Asset Turnover1.1093
Net Asset Value Per Share9.86
Net Tangible Asset per share8.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.37
Cash Per Share2.58
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1443
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.4767
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7367
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4863
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3272
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale24.7%
Days to sell the inventory50
Days to collect the receivables58
Days to pay the payables65

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt largely attributed by higher expenses incurred by Lotus Group International Limited (LGIL) however is partially offset by a higher revenue from an increase in PROTON's domestic sales volume compared to FY11Q1

- Lower pbt compared to FY11Q4 other than above mention also due to a normalization in the trend of customer's demand for the Inspira and drop in the financing approval rate by local financial institutions in June 2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1122*4*0.7 = 0.3142(exclude LGIL expenses), estimate PE on current price 2.64 = 7.77(DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.2326*0.95 = 0.221, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.38/12.58 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.12*0.95*3-0.1094 = 0.2326(estimate average 5% lower profit from FY11Q2 for next 3 quarter and FY12Q3 still loss), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.16 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4608, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/8.33 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4902*0.95 = 0.4657, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.37/9.28 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4353*1.05 = 0.4571(5% increase), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.44/9.52
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1451*4 = 0.5804, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.67/6.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1494*4 = 0.5976, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.16/6.12 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0993*4 = 0.3972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.15/7.25 (DPS 0.05)

PROTON latest news (English)

PROTON latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2011-08-2620121N/AN/A-0.08%0.08%223334522333451210712107455445540.00830.008380454882632423-541306547722231893847791216379218417166362138274154921354921316476392011-06-300.54%62.39%1.1093-9.868.030.372.582.14431.47670.73670.48630.327224.7%505865
2011-05-25201143.62.980.11.14%2.81%2618275898173280855215234616431521430.11220.277076539072247167-5406740284451796505965381615018512054415516119950254921354921318508472011-03-313.09%23.76%1.173512.16529.848.190.412.361.7421.19360.58950.41560.293618.2%485467
2011-02-25201134.053.16-1.12%1.69%183306163634575153513437960100905000.10940.164875531142207502-534561261487745497123952162292780698468303293989554921354921322462812010-12-312.81%-1.1421-9.737.960.511.771.70760.93370.45420.4130.292317.6%694165
2010-11-25201124.984.04-1.22%2.79%2240509453039681265185914659191506000.12000.274274938402096333-539750760568433847309631615103373279342316127278754921354921325977772010-09-303.63%18.88%1.1753-9.838.320.572.41.91491.19180.67390.38840.279720.3%584063
2010-08-23201115.034.520.21.56%1.56%2289887228988710464710464784679846790.15420.154274476752036116-54115591389341683123205216104392937861430154900954921354921325593322010-06-304.57%19.08%1.1642-9.858.560.542.921.93141.2560.82530.37630.273420.9%553367
2010-05-26201044.774.35-0.43%4.48%2263311823295237030285019227992390890.04150.435375051512172162-53329891290090392273173704881996897817724113160610954921354921324385052010-03-311.64%38.43%1.09710.19929.718.630.513.031.891.29790.80170.40730.289422.4%544376
2010-02-19201035.034.0-1.67%4.54%2013533596964182958247988796782162890.14510.393867404421978364-4762078897670309730137138908877587940450802135967954921354921321858672009-12-314.12%3.95%1.0936-8.678.620.462.742.00161.32430.81930.41540.293525.0%584368
2009-11-23201024.343.7-1.56%2.59%21040903956108100652165031820621366130.14940.248770755411801636-527390577143715734485441910034614093528652143868654921354921320156112009-09-304.78%18.47%0.9745-9.68.620.432.752.12031.42440.92420.34160.254626.6%564161
2009-08-18201014.62.9-1.05%1.05%18520181852018643796437954551545510.09930.099372650102069454-51955562999577693318297914131223024204727111885854921354921315707492009-06-303.48%15.27%0.9126-9.468.550.332.171.91121.16760.63180.39830.284925.9%715272
2009-05-29200943.072.53-6.33%5.92%140197864865703735643192013229693018060.58810.549570988981997358-5101540368406771274144778115756140286825809089947154921354921316366542009-03-3126.65%-0.9137-9.298.450.351.691.82681.08620.49330.39150.281424.0%725271
2009-02-27200933.21.5-1.39%0.39%15372715084592609455436374674211630.13600.038573038171915884-53879332652973863541248561154599121057379911583985492135492139721072008-12-313.96%-0.9313-9.819.10.192.161.97541.18920.67140.35560.262325.4%734269
2008-11-27200922.041.70.050.79%1.74%183851635473215660811530843811958370.07980.174573269581806766-552019242366522548252452117054119818325063514211765492135492139885832008-09-303.08%22.61%0.9171-10.059.390.192.642.17121.42730.88820.32730.246628.5%654069
2008-08-27200913.141.6-0.95%0.95%17088051708805587005870052026520260.09470.094773506291869878-548075125910410144438781177759157660161538133929754921354921316366542008-06-303.44%11.37%0.8418-9.989.360.322.562.18121.46880.86040.34120.254431.2%684978
2008-05-26200843.862.9-4.01%3.40%171741856215941751821443162174701845510.39600.336072933481872092-5421256843611433802294485469645409809704294117393954921354921320540562008-03-3110.20%-0.770811.139.879.320.42.272.10231.43110.76060.34530.256732.1%696484
2008-02-21200834.143.6-0.20%0.63%14549453904176110303086710329329190.01880.059971621681963577-51985914340773452263629444717398885145179592353454921354921322627572007-12-310.76%6.36%0.7205-9.479.010.461.832.1261.28590.65950.37770.274233.3%886381
2007-11-30200824.443.62-0.07%0.83%130682124492314951418963506432480.00640.078770402401848066-51921741661732142752500124726384810220191067454854921354921319771662007-09-300.38%29.19%0.663-9.459.010.41.462.27321.31670.56940.35590.262538.3%967779
2007-08-28200815.33.54-0.90%0.90%11424111142411468454684546753467530.08510.085169492891761629-518766037823113642900147103815146514246432857454921354921332952782007-06-304.10%-0.4837-9.459.030.660.982.03011.09510.34640.33960.253547.7%141114114
2007-05-3120074N/AN/A-0.02%11.27%12563774911841101016181299155895330.00171.073469467671716179-52305889659227299114136769968036958322821647146454921354921336522662007-03-310.80%-0.3194-9.529.160.731.272.06391.23350.45630.32810.24773.5%182167167
2007-02-2720073N/AN/A-5.39%11.31%96227336554642720126080282814555904480.51251.075171003291877860-5222469380052399124369268848352019127649941198454921354921336248052006-12-3128.27%-0.1355-9.519.180.721.531.75521.0240.46180.35960.2645143.2%390370345

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtDeferred tax assets (A-0)Goodwill on consolidation (A-0)Intangible assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment properties (A-0)Other investments (A-0)Prepaid lease payments (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Available-for-sale financial assets (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Dividend payable (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Provision for liabilities (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)
201211846129008973015369000---252914644951413260-5067-1284882141915478876673783260211528-961411573541659533
201141674029008877395366729---252986145411293033-8769-12070711320760818697462824512868-3614661435191683137
201131366129008946861357966---2544044457496932735197182013988165938197090610481191483360712182-3772931911781563613
201121326529008798322354296---254861847411315036355361876847541416166955330106421953210768717389823821353731881881535140
201111565729008678979354737---26159549611159428536969186203622131243177780210705246035748621528-1194951996461602653
201041503329008563963355184---2624418967616520893693125301-122721296633610740296495900112099-1422361844041734033
201031011829008-355547100495632-2653054970614954653203319755-124424287583311701385919101020772-1498762049211461493
20102882729008509459354171901510397-26856271124815009263203319769-1138462766599117984456810913520380-1817542025861231415
20101590529008471572358509-10397-27825401123111810983813637181-1403495935938122835860011126714160-2433852118751417884
20094572729008431668353989-10397-28271111531391385036412160610-13950819197321224352225492916322-3060391897791381459
20093-29008360078342723-10397-30658281545011727604517994814-13913447762367426552538351010502205952402661821091316223
20092-29008335509354779-10397-30496741663914345984517996545-1215488739142592574802920896020-1807961723481274786
20091-29008312376355956-10397-308337717601138642945179112268-116259483544453101325341001323862-1094751778441340721
20084-29008275192358190-10397240313150446208221226010-114479-11002869844872439130884995891556-1136061865561337462
20083-29008220276364648-1039710585328257021580984971-71385-12821218846277233276681089861430-1582291820601184481
20082-29008214490361319-1039710598321849130734769740-71902-13447519788107453316331097922224-1073481897191106605
20081-29008196715394132-10397104223147347335445058031344598855-14560531053568754956961079792236-1787521922811183931
20074-29008169075393308-1039710657316878273448626475-176048-12736121015957754761501054872222-1644261960671171073
2007312877129008152066404549-10397-3171998216155626682-51086-1334566975051772-5187716964-4237472042721180228

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesShare of profit/ (loss) of associates
201212233345755363467418322950185943
20114261827519212452027509828139355937
2011318330618565404184855197554610136
2011222405091534621365040522147417228
2011122898871996819973348722207974067
20104226331114231348418568324163697889
201032013533328021807502420090335614
2010221040901859021993730920402651717
201011852018982837432780018152463550
200941401978505953478142856193604121121
200931537271137293108382531634207846
2009218385161279741115336218391878028
200911708805667437114408016952934819
20084171741842288429823629417817397507
20083145494570153462226714682507414
200821306821144545293435513359004204
2008111424119237633575512230951847
2007412563771101663514425013081353758
20073962273944392082625512491632169

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holding and othersMalaysiaOthers CountriesProton ManufacturingProton Selling & ManufacturingLotus Selling & Manufacturing
201146799300140500--70315007882000727000
20113--1557100276000---
20112--1995100245400---
20111--1967800322100---
20104128400-1946800445000---
20103105800-1815800303500---
2010251900-1868300287700---
2010128700-1651400229300---
20094--1255900146100---
20093--1364900172400---
20092--1602400228600---
20091--1466400249900---
2008429000-1496600257000---
2008320900-1263200212800---
2008235800-1052100290500---
2008162300-927300277400---
2007479000-1014300330600---
2007384100-751200295200---

Financial Quarter Segments Profit
yearqrtElimination/AdjustmentInvestment holding and othersMalaysiaOthers CountriesProton ManufacturingProton Selling & ManufacturingLotus Selling & Manufacturing
201144000012000--189000176100149300
20113--2700034600---
20112--11760043600---
20111--916009000---
2010487700-53900400---
201032100-671003700---
2010226400-8310033100---
201015600-604002600---
20094--1830069000---
20093--3570030400---
20092--523007400---
20091--459004500---
20084--1884008200---
2008312500-168003000---
200824600-27009400---
200817900-59900200---
200742100-7350064400---
2007364900-29500058200---


Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables






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