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Friday, October 14, 2011

KLCI Stock - CARLSBG / 2836 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,119,576,640 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.88-0.58)/0.4963 = 12.69 (Moderate)
Target Price6.95+0.58 = 7.53 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4963, DPS 0.58)
DecisionBUY if stock price sustain above 6.8
Revenue decreased 15.2% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 3.4%, eps decreased 36.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 0.7%, cash generated from operating and investing not enough for dividend payment hence increased borrowings and spent 65.2% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price6.8
Second Support Price6.2

Research House
RHB Target Price7.96 (2011-04-21)
AMMB Target Price8.3 (2011-08-01)
Maybank Target Price8 (2011-09-05)
OSK Target Price8.31 (2011-09-15)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity25.50%
Dividend Yield8.07%
Profit Margin11.85%
Tax Rate23.70%
Asset Turnover1.5257
Net Asset Value Per Share1.81
Net Tangible Asset per share0.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share14.57
Cash Per Share0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1753
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9823
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.122
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.6591
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3958
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale3.6%
Days to sell the inventory17
Days to collect the receivables65
Days to pay the payables58

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q2 due to substantial investment in new packaging design and introduction of new large bottles in line with the global rebranding of the Carlsberg brand

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 mainly due to the strong first quarter performance arising from higher domestic sales particularly during the peak Chinese New Year festive period

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4727*1.05 = 0.4963, estimate PE on current price 6.88 = 12.69(DPS 0.58)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1601+0.0997)*2*1.1 = 0.5716, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.81/10.39 (DPS 0.58)

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