KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	690,804,975 (Medium)
Par Value	RM 0.10

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.05-0.04)/0.1258 = 8.03 (Moderate)
Target Price	1.26+0.04 = 1.30 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.1258, DPS 0.04)
Decision	BUY if stock price next uptrend start above 0.97
Comment	Revenue increased 4.3% and is third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.1%, eps increased 68.6% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.6%, cash generated from operating is around for financing expenses only hence increased loan for other expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at moderate level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at moderate level now, largely increasing inventory can indicate target to get higher sales
First Support Price	1.0
Second Support Price	0.93
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

BIMB Target Price	1.22 (2011-01-24)
OSK Target Price	1.14 (2011-02-28)
Inter Pacific Target Price	1.21 (2011-05-31)
Maybank Target Price	1.3 (2011-07-14)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	26.67%
Dividend Yield	3.81%
Profit Margin	19.19%
Tax Rate	28.73%
Asset Turnover	1.2554
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.43
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.42
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	2.12
Cash Per Share	0.21
Liquidity Current Ratio	2.4009
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.2286
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.9487
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5762
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3655
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	36.6%
Days to sell the inventory	208
Days to collect the receivables	26
Days to pay the payables	110

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 due to an increased amount of promotional sales events but gross margins earned during the quarter under review have however declined by about 3%

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to previous quarter had been substantially boosted by the Chinese New Year festive shopping

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate PE on current price 1.05 = 8.03(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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