KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2012 Quarter 1

MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD



Company Description

Malaysian Bulk Carriers Berhad is an investment holding company engaged in international shipping. It operates in three segments: Bulk Carriers, Tankers and Ship Management. As of February 28, 2011, the Company’s total fleet was 10 owned and five controlled bulk carriers and three owned tankers. Its bulk carriers are involved in the transportation of dry cargoes comprising major bulks, such as iron ore, coal (steaming and coking coals), grains and minor bulks like sugar, coke and fertilizers, among others. Apart from its own vessels, the Company also charters-in third party vessels to service contracts of affreightment commitments. The tankers are engaged primarily in the seaborne transportation of clean petroleum products, chemicals and vegetable oils. Ship management involves marine operations, technical management of vessels, ship supplies and crewing which are undertaken by PSM Perkapalan Sdn Bhd (PPSB), a wholly-owned subsidiary of MBC

Company Info 

Listing Date	2003-12-02
Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,500,000,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25
Board	Main
Sector	Trading/Services
Major Industry	Transportation
Sub Industry	Shipping Services
Website	http://www.maybulk.com.my/

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(1.5-0.03)/0.0898 = 16.37 (High)
Target Price	1.26+0.03 = 1.29 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0898, DPS 0.03)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price got strong rebound or when sustain at a price with very low sell volume
Comment	Revenue increased 25.5% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 37.2%, eps increased 88.4% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 41.4%, net cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses and got strong cash from disposal activities, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, lower debt ratio at very low level now, all repayment period is good, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price	1.5
Second Support Price	1.36
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

TA Target Price	1.1 (2011-12-29)
MIDF Target Price	1.68 (2012-02-29)
CIMB Target Price	1.63 (2012-06-01)
OSK Target Price	1.46 (2012-06-01)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	3.94%
Dividend Yield	2.00%
Gross Profit Margin	4.23%
Operating Profit Margin	27.35%
Net Profit Margin	43.34%
Tax Rate	1.16%
Asset Turnover	0.1264
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.7
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.7
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	0.95
Cash Per Share	0.42
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.6883
Liquidity Quick Ratio	5.6135
Liquidity Cash Ratio	5.0363
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1042
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0918
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	162.5%
Days to sell the inventory	12
Days to collect the receivables	58
Days to pay the payables	69

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	1.594 (Downtrend 3 days)
SMA 50	1.623 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.766 (Same)
SMA 200	1.74 (Downtrend)
MACD (26d/12d)	-0.017739 ( 0.006171 )
Signal (9)	-0.016537 ( 0.0003 )
MACD Histogram	0.001202 (Bearish trend 1 day)
Bolinger Upper Band	1.712
Bolinger Lower Band	1.476

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q1 due to lower level of charter rates and lower TCE rates earned and the loss of 26 days’ revenue due to unemployment of vessels but contribution from our associate (POSH Group) increased partly due to foreign exchange gain, vessel disposal gain and improvement in utilisation and charter rates in the offshore services sector

- Current quarter’s investment holding income includes gain on disposal of investments (RM3.0 million) and write-back of mark-tomarket provisions (RM8.7 million)

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q4 as a result of revenue days increased due to the delivery of a new long term chartered in vessel although charter rates earned declined

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1795850*0.05/1000000 = 0.0898, estimate PE on current price 1.5 = 16.37(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1795850*0.04/1000000 = 0.0718, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.21/20.89 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.59/15.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

MAYBULK latest news (English)

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Financial Quarter Summary

a_date	year	qrt	h_price	l_price	div	roe	c_roe	rev	c_rev	pbt	c_pbt	prof	c_prof	eps	c_eps	asset	liab	mino	equi	cfo	cfi	cff	cash	fcf	net	final	share	c_share	m_cap	date	gros_m	oper_m	prof_m	vat	asset_t	pe	navps	ntaps	p/ntaps	cps	l_cur	l_qui	l_cash	g_de	g_da	avg_w	inv_d	rec_d	pay_d
2012-05-31	2012	1	N/A	N/A	-	1.72%	1.72%	71991	71991	31202	31202	30936	30936	0.0309	0.0309	1925586	176683	53111	1748903	11058	53206	10838	286930	64264	53426	340356	1000000	1000000	1620000	2012-03-31	4.23%	27.35%	43.34%	1.16%	0.1264	-	1.7	1.7	0.95	0.42	5.6883	5.6135	5.0363	0.1042	0.0918	162.5%	12	58	69
2012-02-28	2011	4	1.84	1.53	0.03	0.94%	5.24%	57363	256309	17243	94803	16393	91309	0.0164	0.0913	1987715	191865	55717	1795850	65847	19551	105106	318581	85398	19708	298873	1000000	1000000	1750000	2011-12-31	28.89%	19.09%	30.06%	2.53%	0.1439	19.1657	1.74	1.74	1.01	0.42	5.6072	5.5236	5.0479	0.1103	0.0965	134.3%	13	47	64
2011-11-23	2011	3	2.73	1.39	-	0.02%	4.30%	44379	198946	1060	77560	371	74916	0.0004	0.0749	1865137	180007	52868	1685130	57582	19274	139245	307564	76856	62389	245175	1000000	1000000	1660000	2011-09-30	18.68%	30.27%	2.39%	13.11%	0.168	-	1.63	1.63	1.02	0.36	3.7501	3.6647	3.3601	0.1103	0.0965	94.8%	16	38	113
2011-08-24	2011	2	2.0	1.65	-	1.26%	4.28%	69653	154567	23020	76500	21887	74545	0.0219	0.0745	1869386	185496	56693	1683890	27907	19612	122668	306876	47519	75149	231727	1000000	1000000	2010000	2011-06-30	28.51%	30.12%	33.05%	2.02%	0.2022	-	1.63	1.63	1.23	0.36	4.1249	4.0546	3.5351	0.114	0.0992	84.4%	12	51	96
2011-05-25	2011	1	2.36	1.88	-	3.02%	3.02%	114575	114575	53480	53480	52658	52658	0.0527	0.0527	1966756	196592	56254	1770164	42	53357	10936	311763	53399	42463	354226	1000000	1000000	2260000	2011-03-31	34.32%	42.48%	46.68%	0.73%	0.2056	-	1.71	1.71	1.32	0.48	5.3509	5.2459	4.7676	0.1147	0.1	109.2%	17	44	95
2011-02-23	2010	4	2.89	2.26	0.1	3.64%	12.81%	84725	404250	69454	244368	67702	238368	0.0677	0.2384	1997254	254835	56634	1742419	221760	12737	306868	414537	209023	97845	316692	1000000	1000000	2760000	2010-12-31	43.27%	78.30%	81.98%	1.07%	0.2024	11.5787	1.69	1.69	1.63	0.44	3.7335	3.6611	3.0047	0.1512	0.1276	100.0%	19	40	181
2010-11-23	2010	3	3.0	2.7	-	4.71%	9.17%	109027	319525	88069	174914	87745	170666	0.0877	0.1707	2069635	360141	56248	1709494	176112	12833	207324	416332	163279	44045	372287	1000000	1000000	2870000	2010-09-30	54.85%	73.23%	80.78%	-	0.1943	-	1.65	1.65	1.74	0.44	3.6585	3.6005	3.0544	0.2178	0.174	95.7%	15	55	167
2010-08-24	2010	2	3.03	2.81	-	1.70%	4.46%	96067	210498	33369	86845	31560	82921	0.0316	0.0829	2220903	504778	73567	1716125	198389	72953	174059	436056	125436	48623	387433	1000000	1000000	2870000	2010-06-30	45.93%	21.50%	34.74%	1.58%	0.1761	-	1.64	1.64	1.75	0.52	2.4529	2.4257	2.1255	0.3073	0.2273	90.0%	11	68	349
2010-05-18	2010	1	3.06	2.8	-	2.76%	2.76%	114431	114431	53476	53476	51361	51361	0.0514	0.0514	2265996	399829	73576	1866167	50880	10281	16134	447281	40599	24465	471746	1000000	1000000	2990000	2010-03-31	47.37%	40.27%	46.73%	0.89%	0.1613	-	1.79	1.79	1.67	0.63	9.3316	9.2182	8.3748	0.223	0.1764	170.2%	14	63	115
2010-02-22	2009	4	3.26	2.93	0.15	4.37%	12.03%	82614	303707	90049	248257	88447	243799	0.0884	0.2438	2296186	435111	74001	1861075	114086	87185	382945	816473	26901	356044	460429	1000000	1000000	3080000	2009-12-31	47.70%	88.18%	109.00%	0.91%	0.1323	12.6334	1.79	1.79	1.72	0.61	7.7056	7.6302	6.7773	0.2435	0.1895	199.0%	12	92	146
2009-11-25	2009	3	3.3	2.89	-	3.43%	7.67%	98024	221093	70470	158208	69552	155352	0.0696	0.1554	2234405	427850	73215	1806555	39315	42666	377387	823262	3351	380738	442524	1000000	1000000	3160000	2009-09-30	39.74%	52.45%	71.89%	0.69%	0.1608	-	1.73	1.73	1.83	0.59	9.6299	9.5193	8.2758	0.2468	0.1915	170.4%	11	90	85
2009-08-26	2009	2	3.32	2.96	-	3.51%	4.24%	70393	123069	73481	87738	71097	85800	0.0711	0.0858	2167220	410913	74450	1756307	5919	36499	372945	823155	42418	415363	407792	1000000	1000000	3130000	2009-06-30	27.71%	66.42%	104.39%	1.40%	0.2204	-	1.68	1.68	1.86	0.54	11.6506	11.5309	10.2767	0.2443	0.1896	116.3%	7	50	50
2009-05-27	2009	1	3.42	3.02	-	0.73%	0.73%	52676	52676	14257	14257	14703	14703	0.0147	0.0147	2531515	433370	139839	2098145	45715	13548	5038	852803	32167	37205	815598	1000000	1000000	3320000	2009-03-31	4.10%	10.95%	27.07%	-	0.2344	-	1.96	1.96	1.69	0.93	17.9998	17.8789	16.5816	0.2213	0.1712	160.1%	7	45	49
2009-02-25	2008	4	3.4	2.72	0.3	0.18%	25.97%	138123	721158	4420	525750	3238	460862	0.0032	0.4609	2483705	457822	141945	2025883	342049	241037	417039	1121598	101012	316027	805571	1000000	1000000	2770000	2008-12-31	23.38%	0.23%	3.20%	-	0.2904	6.0105	1.88	1.88	1.47	0.94	10.127	10.0586	9.2598	0.243	0.1843	128.1%	7	38	86
2008-11-19	2008	3	2.82	2.13	-	8.09%	25.79%	216545	583035	194660	521330	143472	457624	0.1435	0.4576	2406212	426208	138450	1980004	280805	463210	410099	1083766	744015	333916	1417682	1000000	1000000	2310000	2008-09-30	52.35%	92.14%	89.89%	0.70%	0.3216	-	1.84	1.84	1.26	1.58	23.6293	23.4578	22.0726	0.2314	0.1771	209.9%	13	47	63
2008-08-20	2008	2	3.58	2.06	0.1	12.51%	17.71%	186026	366490	226972	326670	221895	314152	0.2219	0.3142	2170847	402262	87094	1768585	222239	254224	316123	1006625	476463	160340	1166965	1000000	1000000	3460000	2008-06-30	46.63%	123.60%	122.01%	0.23%	0.3322	-	1.68	1.68	2.06	1.36	22.3241	22.1844	20.3496	0.2392	0.1853	197.4%	11	41	65
2008-05-21	2008	1	4.34	3.36	-	5.20%	5.20%	180464	180464	99698	99698	92257	92257	0.0923	0.0923	2197856	392306	80837	1805550	77860	8265	8150	990054	69595	61445	1051499	1000000	1000000	4380000	2008-03-31	59.71%	56.87%	55.25%	2.75%	0.3099	-	1.72	1.72	2.55	1.24	24.8564	24.6719	20.0875	0.2275	0.1785	216.4%	16	65	72
2008-02-18	2007	4	4.58	3.62	0.3	9.71%	33.89%	190911	608142	160097	580295	156006	544592	0.1560	0.5446	2187708	413404	79256	1774304	458762	356906	435385	646663	815668	380283	1026946	1000000	1000000	4260000	2007-12-31	58.90%	85.75%	83.86%	0.15%	0.278	7.8224	1.7	1.7	2.51	1.24	21.1739	21.0798	17.8419	0.2439	0.189	229.7%	10	58	97
2007-11-22	2007	3	5.05	3.5	-	7.18%	24.18%	163676	417231	131627	420198	115467	388586	0.1155	0.3886	2105100	414458	79675	1690642	241014	268080	415660	681568	509094	93434	775002	1000000	1000000	4960000	2007-09-30	59.11%	81.92%	80.42%	0.24%	0.2495	-	1.61	1.61	3.08	0.92	15.961	15.8653	13.2722	0.2573	0.1969	197.1%	13	125	99
2007-08-20	2007	2	5.45	4.94	0.08	8.06%	16.99%	146138	253555	140559	288571	129465	273119	0.1295	0.2731	2021048	407297	61938	1613751	167607	16641	307938	676220	184248	123690	552530	1000000	1000000	3740000	2007-06-30	68.70%	95.59%	96.18%	0.22%	0.1789	-	1.55	1.55	2.41	0.85	13.2521	13.1697	10.3904	0.2625	0.2015	277.3%	21	122	194
2007-05-17	2007	1	N/A	N/A	-	8.94%	8.94%	107417	107417	148012	148012	143654	143654	0.1796	0.1796	2144090	403446	51568	1740644	72882	106080	64984	691186	178962	113978	805164	800000	800000	3056000	2007-03-31	65.05%	139.04%	137.79%	1.12%	0.1005	-	2.11	2.11	1.81	1.18	16.6506	16.5304	12.379	0.2389	0.1882	554.9%	45	169	287
2007-02-27	2006	4	N/A	N/A	0.3	N/A	N/A	107989	441600	95766	313487	92775	300565	0.1160	0.3757	2088395	481244	1607151	1607151	270380	120086	183311	725811	150294	33017	692794	800000	800000	2048000	2006-12-31	66.20%	108.12%	88.68%	0.14%	0.0517	6.8138	N/A	N/A	N/A	1.09	7.0969	7.0541	5.9967	N/A	0.2304	820.0%	62	397	714

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet

year	qrt	Fixed assets (A-0)	Investment in associated companies (A-0)	Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)	Leasehold property (A-0)	Mining asset (A-0)	Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)	Consumable stores, at cost (A-1)	Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)	Deposits with licensed banks (A-1)	Other investments (A-1)	Other receivables, deposits and prepayments (A-1)	Trade receivables (A-1)	Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-0)	Loans & borrowings (L-1)	Other payables (L-1)	Provision for taxation (L-1)	Trade and other payables (L-1)	Minority interest (M-1)
2012	1	506394	754883	184555	-	-	210492	6309	9883	129864	84413	10315	28478	-	92342	46799	-	346	37196	53111
2011	4	-	781743	188910	-	549743	149945	6975	2526	148928	121826	14092	23027	-	108523	47834	-	320	35188	55717
2011	3	535254	747920	176965	-	-	102305	9213	-	142870	117708	10157	22745	-	72009	42476	65036	486	-	52868
2011	2	540565	734590	172941	-	-	82412	7183	-	149315	129319	13356	39705	-	83363	42364	58777	992	-	56693
2011	1	548514	737221	137747	-	-	67459	10661	-	286767	129832	15743	32812	-	95062	42532	58309	689	-	56254
2010	4	562391	746052	136921	-	-	19215	10699	52863	297477	127476	16947	27213	-	107013	43148	104050	624	-	56634
2010	3	607943	764036	150350	17652	-	36168	8404	18386	336119	69905	26167	34505	-	215368	50432	93891	450	-	56248
2010	2	666139	790908	151355	18025	-	55345	6609	-	332088	127680	40991	31763	-	262425	36761	204768	824	-	73567
2010	1	604857	799506	146758	18187	-	106646	8464	-	365100	153510	41720	21248	-	325170	6876	66998	785	-	73576
2009	4	645975	815654	139948	-	-	53711	6797	-	406718	150497	48025	28861	-	344968	7695	81546	902	-	74001
2009	3	567158	965458	-	18628	-	109786	7845	-	332738	144575	63608	24609	-	356908	7666	62176	1100	-	73215
2009	2	575663	965088	-	18485	-	16631	6245	-	391161	128498	46477	18972	-	358728	7569	42933	1683	-	74450
2009	1	612913	893843	-	18893	-	34092	6760	-	781506	111013	58945	13550	-	377488	7790	48092	-	-	139839
2008	4	581858	858576	-	18548	-	13875	6924	5595	791696	131401	49263	25969	-	356635	7346	90205	3636	-	141945
2008	3	635327	56092	-	18539	-	18157	12309	-	1399525	166824	52937	46502	1338	353084	7146	60789	3851	-	138450
2008	2	607860	54706	-	18256	-	2516	9325	42245	1164449	191267	44628	35595	1338	334179	7786	56285	2674	-	87094
2008	1	593013	50996	-	18196	-	5129	11395	162816	1046370	189525	72153	48263	1338	329187	6416	52351	3014	-	80837
2007	4	655175	47605	-	18508	-	38163	6517	127999	988783	208716	53444	42798	1338	342810	6589	60845	1822	-	79256
2007	3	952670	47835	-	-	-	49425	6624	-	725577	143517	132416	47036	514	344738	17631	50818	757	-	79675
2007	2	893027	43733	-	-	-	5689	6741	106138	546841	297610	92923	28346	513	324964	17085	63619	1116	-	61938
2007	1	832563	39968	-	-	-	4749	9185	217227	800415	140185	84446	15352	513	326566	17129	58189	1049	-	51568
2006	4	1001072	36397	-	20240	-	16123	6216	36062	676671	178103	84363	33148	-	336014	73302	71451	477	-	1607151

Financial Quarter Income Statement

year	qrt	Revenue	Income tax expense	Cost of sales	Finance/interest costs	Other income	Administrative/Operating expenses	Minority interest	Share of profit/ (loss) of associates	Share of net profit of jointly controlled entity
2012	1	71991	361	68943	572	20538	3897	95	8111	3974
2011	4	57363	437	40788	486	4791	836	413	3524	3257
2011	3	44379	139	36087	427	17841	3885	550	11387	3534
2011	2	69653	466	49792	450	5799	4678	667	264	2224
2011	1	114575	388	75254	513	13441	4096	434	1848	3479
2010	4	84725	743	48067	636	35871	6187	1009	490	3258
2010	3	109027	53	49228	1396	25297	5256	377	8774	851
2010	2	96067	528	51946	286	19374	4092	1281	4244	8184
2010	1	114431	478	60220	5241	3825	4308	1637	4664	7975
2009	4	82614	822	43211	1853	39188	5739	780	11472	7578
2009	3	98024	489	59070	3616	16638	4178	429	14072	8600
2009	2	70393	1028	50885	4413	31311	4062	1356	22934	8203
2009	1	52676	1794	50516	4055	3608	4319	1348	15467	8612
2008	4	138123	542	105832	7989	26883	5732	1724	12733	-
2008	3	216545	1363	103179	6059	93130	6973	49825	1196	-
2008	2	186026	518	99274	6501	149472	6303	4559	3552	-
2008	1	180464	2737	72706	6633	3823	8943	4704	3693	-
2007	4	190911	239	78458	7293	60105	8850	3852	3682	-
2007	3	163676	315	66935	6379	44761	7411	15845	3915	-
2007	2	146138	310	45746	3141	45310	6006	10784	4004	-
2007	1	107417	1665	37542	4999	86447	6972	2693	3661	-
2006	4	107989	130	36501	24920	50084	4809	2861	3923	-

Financial Quarter Segments Revenue

year	qrt	Shipping Bulkers	Shipping Tankers	Ship brokerage & management
2012	1	57709	12581	1701
2011	4	46190	9883	509
2011	3	35922	6687	2551
2011	2	59663	8038	1952
2011	1	72636	10385	1893
2010	4	70451	12264	2010
2010	3	95351	11552	2124
2010	2	85601	8194	2272
2010	1	97844	13968	2619
2009	4	70288	10390	1936
2009	3	80606	15517	1901
2009	2	54246	13303	2844
2009	1	36810	15196	670
2008	4	124626	11100	2397
2008	3	190462	23988	1360
2008	2	167701	16489	2157
2008	1	155642	22689	2547
2007	4	163900	24814	2509
2007	3	131417	29305	3268
2007	2	108141	36133	2180
2007	1	79723	26011	2023
2006	4	82701	23772	1898

Financial Quarter Segments Profit

year	qrt	Investment holding and others	Shipping Bulkers	Shipping Tankers	Ship brokerage & management
2012	1	14649	6102	2129	580
2011	4	4400	12021	2348	538
2011	3	17408	6855	3303	172
2011	2	4263	21378	5516	610
2011	1	5378	36477	5750	698
2010	4	5264	45387	978	16075
2010	3	-	60720	178	18577
2010	2	-	43107	21	24013
2010	1	-	45644	5305	5747
2009	4	-	42529	3999	24485
2009	3	-	30548	6603	12731
2009	2	-	15088	2287	28129
2009	1	-	105	4583	12544
2008	4	-	29665	1668	37132
2008	3	-	251518	14452	75105
2008	2	-	176317	40849	4538
2008	1	-	98451	13080	19614
2007	4	-	103046	45275	6819
2007	3	-	71259	45846	8132
2007	2	-	79155	50129	1581
2007	1	-	125435	12316	1231
2006	4	-	58273	10890	36465

Financial Quarter Segments Associate

year	qrt	Investment holding and others
2012	1	12085
2011	4	-
2011	3	-
2011	2	-
2011	1	-
2010	4	-
2010	3	-
2010	2	-
2010	1	-
2009	4	-
2009	3	-
2009	2	-
2009	1	-
2008	4	-
2008	3	-
2008	2	-
2008	1	-
2007	4	-
2007	3	-
2007	2	-
2007	1	-
2006	4	-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables

CURRENT

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
●ANNUAL REPORTS

HISTORICAL

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

ARCHIVES

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●CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 4

MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 as a result of the lower charter rates earned lower average charter rates earned by dry bulk carriers in line with the falling BDI due to overcapacity

- The tanker market remained stagnant, although tankers average charter rates improved but revenue declined due to lower revenue days. Factors contributing to the lower revenue days are the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, the scheduled docking for 3 tankers and downtime awaiting employment

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 due to charter rates improved whilst revenue days increased

- Lower other operating loss mainly due to reduced losses on foreign exchange and lower mark-to-market losses on investment. The fourth quarter 2011 “other operating loss” figure also includes reversal of a provision for a UK lease and an accounting adjustment for foreign exchange to comply with MFRS 121

- Lower administrative costs than FY11Q3 as the current quarter’s figure includes an overprovision in the previous quarters

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1795850*0.04/1000000 = 0.0718, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 23.96(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.59/15.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

MAYBULK latest news (English)

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KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,790,000,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.79-0.05)/0.0876 = 19.86 (High)
Target Price	1.23+0.05 = 1.28 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.0876, DPS 0.05)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price below or near to SMA20
Comment	Revenue decreased 36.3% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 59.3%, eps decreased 98.2% and was fourth consecutive quarter decreasing (lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 99.5%), cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses together with cash generated from disposal also not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 20.3% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from strong to high level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio still acceptable, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price	1.52
Second Support Price	1.39
Risk Rating	HIGH

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price	2.82 (2011-06-17)
TA Target Price	1.1 (2011-12-29)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	8.34%
Dividend Yield	5.59%
Profit Margin	2.39%
Tax Rate	13.11%
Asset Turnover	0.1521
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.63
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.02
Cash Per Share	0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio	3.7501
Liquidity Quick Ratio	3.6647
Liquidity Cash Ratio	3.3601
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1103
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0965
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	104.7%
Days to sell the inventory	17
Days to collect the receivables	42
Days to pay the payables	120

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.486 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 50	1.626 (Downtrend)
SMA 100	1.742 (Downtrend)
SMA 200	2.063 (Downtrend)
MACD	-0.070478 (Uptrend 8 days)
MACD Histogram	0.025792 (Uptrend 5 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt is attributed to a 35% fall in the charter rates for the dry bulk segment and reduced revenue days from tanker segment

- The BDI’s 9 months average of 1,428 points for 2011 is a 51% decline against the comparative average of 2,885 in 2010. Against the backdrop of the weak dry bulk sector, the Group’s charter rates for our dry bulk carriers declined by 35% to USD17,491/day, compared to USD26,908/day for the same period last year

- The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) remained flat from 2010 into the third quarter this year and this is reflected in our tanker revenue. Our tankers’ average TC rates for the 9 months of 2011 was USD12,257/day, compared to USD12,315/day for the same period last year. Revenue days from tanker segment were lower in this current 9 months due to the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, and the scheduled dockings of 3 tankers

- Gains on foreign exchange and disposal of vessel, offset by mark-to-market loss on investment, contributed a net “other operating income” of RM1.39 million for the 9 months of 2011. Finance cost decreased by 78% (or RM4.96 million) y-o-y as last year’s comparative includes provisions for early termination of a structured lease

- Compared to FY10Q3, is lower profit share from the Group’s jointly controlled entities in the dry bulk sector due to the falling dry bulk market

- But compared to FY11Q2, associate company POSH Group reported an increase as the employment rates for their vessels improved. Jointly controlled entity Progress Shipping Pte Ltd Group, took delivery of a new handysize at end June 2011 and this vessel has contributed positively to their results

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate PE on current price 1.79 = 19.86(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

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KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,840,000,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(1.84-0.1)/0.1292 = 13.47 (High)
Target Price	1.55+0.1 = 1.65 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1292, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price sustain above 1.8
Comment	Revenue decreased 18% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 27.5%, eps decreased 58.4% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 30.7%, cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses and cash generated from disposal not enough to cover financing expenses hence spent 24.5% of Group cash to cover, weaker liquidity ratio from very strong to strong level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by lower charter rates
First Support Price	1.7
Second Support Price	1.6
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price	2.82 (2011-06-17)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	13.45%
Dividend Yield	5.43%
Profit Margin	33.05%
Tax Rate	2.02%
Asset Turnover	0.1863
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.63
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.63
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.23
Cash Per Share	0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio	4.1249
Liquidity Quick Ratio	4.0546
Liquidity Cash Ratio	3.5351
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.114
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0992
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	91.6%
Days to sell the inventory	12
Days to collect the receivables	56
Days to pay the payables	101

My notes based on 2011 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- The BDI started the year at 1,693 and ended the first half 2011 at 1,413. For first half 2011, the BDI averaged 1,372 points reflecting a 57% decline from the average of 3,165 registered in the first half of last year. TCE/day for dry bulk carriers in 1H2011 was US$19,604/day compared to 1H2010’s TCE/day of US$28,387. The tanker market continued to remain weak with MBC’s tankers’ earning US$12,952/day in 1H2011, against last year’s comparative average of US$13,059/day

- Lower operating profit mainly due to the lower charter rates

- Other operating income was a RM19.2 million comprises of gains from foreign exchange, investment activities and disposal of a tanker

- Contribution from associate (POSH) declined 76% due to the continued weakness in the offshore service sector. Contribution from the jointly controlled entities in the dry bulk sector declined 65%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate PE on current price 1.84 = 13.47(DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

MAYBULK latest news (English)

MAYBULK latest news (Chinese)

KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 1

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,230,000,000 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(2.23-0.1)/0.1708 = 12.47 (Moderate)
Target Price	2.39+0.1 = 2.49 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.1708, DPS 0.1)
Decision	Not interested unless revenue and profit increase more
Comment	Revenue increased 0.2% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.8%, eps decreased 22.2% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.5%, almost like no cash generated from operating after deduct payables expenses but cash generated from disposal more than enough to cover financing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	2.1
Second Support Price	1.9
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

OSK Target Price	2.21 (2011-05-26)
MIDF Target Price	2.82 (2011-06-17)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	13.83%
Dividend Yield	4.48%
Profit Margin	62.98%
Tax Rate	0.73%
Asset Turnover	0.1905
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.71
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.71
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.32
Cash Per Share	0.48
Liquidity Current Ratio	5.3509
Liquidity Quick Ratio	5.2459
Liquidity Cash Ratio	4.7676
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1147
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.1
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	117.9%
Days to sell the inventory	18
Days to collect the receivables	47
Days to pay the payables	99

My notes based on 2011 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY10Q1 attributed to a 28% fall in the hire rates, the BDI averaged 1365 in the current quarter, a 54% decline from the 2984 average in the comparative quarter last year. The weaker market is reflected in the lower TCE/day achieved by dry bulk segment for Q1 2011 of US$21,398/day compared to Q1 last year’s US$30,260. The tanker market continued to remain weak and this has resulted in a 21% lower tanker TCE average of US$12,610/day against last year’s comparative average of US$15,938/day

- Higher other income than FY10Q1 primarily due to a RM8.4 million foreign exchange gain and RM4.6 million gain from the disposal of a tanker

- Lower profit from associate due to weak offshore services market

- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 attributed to the increased revenue days from ship-chartering segment

- The Group sold a tanker in February 2011 registering a gain of RM4.6 million, as compared to a gain of RM22.6 million posted in preceding quarter. This has resulted in a RM18.0 million q-o-q drop in the other operating income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate PE on current price 2.23 = 12.47(DPS 0.1)

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