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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

KLCI Stock - PADINI / 7052 - 2012 Quarter 2

PADINI HOLDINGS BERHAD

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to Christmas and Chinese New Year and additional contributions from the 4 new stores opened

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 325811*0.34/657910 = 0.1684, estimate PE on current price 1.39 = 7.78(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1276*1.1 = 0.1404, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.69/7.19 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1144*1.1 = 0.1258, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.51/6.2 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0591*2)*1.05 = 0.1241, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.11/6.81 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4479*0.95/5 = 0.0851, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.39/10.83 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2209*2*1.05 = 0.4639, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.64/7.44 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.84/8.47 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.4074 (around 10% grow from 0.3765, expect next quarter strong due to chinese new year), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.34/8 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.22/7.08 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.4074, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.38/6.27 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.389, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.71/5.78 (DPS 0.14)

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KLCI Stock - SUPERMX / 7106 - 2011 Quarter 4

SUPERMAX CORPORATION BERHAD

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to better sell through recorded as customers increased their orders to replenish their depleted inventories towards the year end but lower profit due to higher priced inventory going into the last quarter of the year and had to realise lower profits when sold

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 769038*0.17/680155 = 0.1922, estimate PE on current price 2.02 = 10.2(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0909*4 = 0.3636(cautious of RM8.9 million profit was from other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.84/8.64 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.075*4*1.1 = 0.33(exclude RM4 million bond write off), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.68/6.62 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0718*4*1.1 = 0.3159, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.42/9.58 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0962*4 = 0.3848, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.94 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1124*4*1.1 = 0.4946, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.31/7.77 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1351*4*0.9 = 0.4864(correction), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.82/7.43 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6576+0.0253 = 0.6829, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.38/8.77 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1644*4 = 0.6576, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.16/8.24 (DPS 0.11)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1514*4 = 0.6056, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.15/5.3 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0972*4 = 0.3888, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.74/5.14 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0743*4 = 0.2972, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.01 (DPS 0.0325)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.2499, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.67/3.07 (DPS 0.0325)

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KLCI Stock - GENTING / 3182 - 2011 Quarter 4

GENTING BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 due to better performance from all segments

- The increase in revenue from the leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia than FY10Q4 was mainly due to overall higher volume of business despite a lower hold percentage in the premium players business

- Revenue from the US segment included construction revenue from the development of Resorts World Casino New York City but mainly from the operations of Resorts World Casino New York City. Consequently, an adjusted EBITDA of RM23.6 million mainly from the operations of Resorts World Casino New York City was recorded whilst construction loss of RM40.9 million was incurred due to cost overrun from the development of Resorts World Casino New York City

- Higher revenue and pbt from the Power Division was due to higher energy charge in the Kuala Langat power plant and increased tariff rate in the Meizhou Wan power plant

- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 mainly due to an improvement in FFB production on the back of continued good yields, especially from the Sabah estates however pbt was lower due to lower palm products selling prices and higher operating expenditure for the operations in Malaysia

- Higher revenue and pbt from the Property Division was contributed mainly by the property segment of GENP, which improved due to better demand for its industrial and commercial properties

- The profit before tax for the current quarter included a reversal of RM308.6 million in respect of previously recognised impairment loss which relates to the UK casino licences and a net fair value gain of RM64.4 million on derivative financial instruments. The previous year’s corresponding quarter’s profit before tax had included loss on discontinuance of cash flow hedge accounting using interest rate swaps of RM145.4 million arising from settlement of interest rate swaps

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 33166943*0.09/3701553 = 0.8064, estimate PE on current price 10.6 = 13.05(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1609*0.9*4 = 0.5792, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.41/17.16 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1713*0.9*4 = 0.6167(exclude RM116.7 million one time gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.77/13.44 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7531*1.1 = 0.8284, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.67/11.25 (DPS 0.078)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.14*4*1.05 = 0.588, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.91/16.59 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0945*4 = 0.3781, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.49/26.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1985*4 = 0.794, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.53/11.22 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2813*1.15 = 0.3235(15% increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.54/2 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0661*4 = 0.2644, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.77/23.18 (DPS 0.072)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0999*4 = 0.3996, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.09/15.62 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 33.23/27.64 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0574*4 = 0.2296, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.88/23 (DPS 0.07)

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KLCI Stock - MAYBULK / 5077 - 2011 Quarter 4

MALAYSIAN BULK CARRIERS BHD

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 as a result of the lower charter rates earned lower average charter rates earned by dry bulk carriers in line with the falling BDI due to overcapacity

- The tanker market remained stagnant, although tankers average charter rates improved but revenue declined due to lower revenue days. Factors contributing to the lower revenue days are the disposal of a tanker in February 2011, the scheduled docking for 3 tankers and downtime awaiting employment

- Higher revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 due to charter rates improved whilst revenue days increased

- Lower other operating loss mainly due to reduced losses on foreign exchange and lower mark-to-market losses on investment. The fourth quarter 2011 “other operating loss” figure also includes reversal of a provision for a UK lease and an accounting adjustment for foreign exchange to comply with MFRS 121

- Lower administrative costs than FY11Q3 as the current quarter’s figure includes an overprovision in the previous quarters

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1795850*0.04/1000000 = 0.0718, estimate PE on current price 1.75 = 23.96(DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0219*4 = 0.0876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.59/15.3 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0219+0.0427)*2 = 0.1292, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0427(exclude RM10 million other income)*4 = 0.1708, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/10.42 (DPS 0.1)

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KLCI Stock - RSAWIT / 5113 - 2011 Quarter 4

RIMBUNAN SAWIT BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenu than FY10Q4 mainly attributed by higher FFB, increase in sales volume of CPO and PK but lower pbt principally due to increase of amortisation and depreciation of the newly acquired estate and new mature area, resulting in higher amortisation and depreciation cost by RM4.22 million. Rehabilitation and improvement cost on road repair and field maintenance of newly acquired estate and existing estates during the current quarter increased by RM3.61 million compared to last year corresponding period. Additional RM4.83 million of accrued loan interest incurred on the acquisition of new estate was expensed off as finance cost in the current quarter as the final quantum only confirmed at the redemption date of the outstanding loan and the transfer of the said estate was completed on 30 December 2011

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 due to lower volume of CPO sold and lower CPO selling price. FFB production increased whereas the average selling price decreased

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 65975*1.1/2041722 = 0.0355, estimate PE on current price 1.14 = 31.69(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 17855/1308505*4*1.1 = 0.06, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.08/16.25 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.113/4*2*1.1 = 0.0622, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.4/7.15 (DPS 0.02)

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KLCI Stock - GENM / 4715 - 2011 Quarter 4

GENTING MALAYSIA BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q4 mainly attributable to the leisure and hospitality segment

- Higher revenue from leisure and hospitality business in Malaysia than FY10Q4 mainly due to the overall higher volume of business but lower pbt mainly due to lower hold percentage in the premium players business

- Loss from leisure and hospitality business in US due to the construction loss of RM40.9 million which the Group incurred in the current quarter due to cost overrun from the development of Resorts World Casino New York City. Excluding the construction revenue and construction loss, the Group’s EBITDA would have increased by 10%

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 11926797*0.12/5669441 = 0.2524, estimate PE on current price 3.91 = 15.15(DPS 0.086)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0613*4*1.1 = 0.2697, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.97/13.64 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0736+0.0617)*2*0.95 = 0.2571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.89/11.39 (DPS 0.082)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0736*4 = 0.2944, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.08/11.18 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.2241*1.1 = 0.2465, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.26/12.74 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/13.16 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.98/11.85 (DPS 0.079)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2315*1.05 = 0.2431, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/9.82 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0628*4 = 0.2512, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.25/9.7 (DPS 0.073)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0629*4 = 0.2516, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.45/10.33 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0577*4 = 0.2308, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.35/11.44 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0481*4 = 0.1924, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.23/12.79 (DPS 0.07)

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KLCI Stock - MITRA / 9571 - 2011 Quarter 4

MITRAJAYA HOLDINGS BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY10Q4 due to lower revenue from almost all segment and lower pbt mainly due to lower profit from Property development segment

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to the reversal of liquidated ascertained damages cost in one of the construction project in the preceding quarter

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 352485*0.1/386283 = 0.0912, estimate PE on current price 0.6 = 6.03(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.021+0.0285)*2*0.9 = 0.0891, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.01/4.77 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.021*4*0.8 = 0.0672, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/4.99 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.0796+0.0812)*2*1.1 = 0.3538, estimate PE on current price 2.43 = 6.53(DPS 0.12), after split & bonus & free warrants then eps = 0.1049, price = 0.81, PE = 7.34(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.36(due to receivables increased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/4.94 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.43/3.75 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2*0.7*2 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 3.25/3 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.12(average of 0.03 per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.5/7.5 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.08(average of 0.02 per quarter if no new big project secure for construction division), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.13/7.63 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9/7
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.88/6.63
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.44/5.38

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KLCI Stock - UEMLAND / 5148 - 2011 Quarter 4

UEM LAND HOLDINGS BHD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to improved performance from the Group’s various development activities especially SiLC, East Ledang, Nusa Idaman, Nusa Bayu and Symphony Hills. The current quarter also includes the consolidation of the results from Sunrise Berhad

- Its on-going projects have an unbilled sales of RM1.85 billion as at 31 December 2011

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 5296613*0.09/4672449 = 0.102, estimate PE on current price 2.31 = 22.65
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.88/23.88
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0663*1.2 = 0.08, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.63/19.25
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.051*1.3 = 0.0663, estimate highest/lowest PE = 43.89/30.17

UEMLAND latest news (English)

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KLCI Stock - JCY / 5161 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,494,729,200 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.22-0.04)/0.1281 = 9.21 (Moderate)
Target Price1.54+0.04 = 1.58 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1281, DPS 0.04)
DecisionBUY if MACD moving back to bullish trend and got very strong buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 11.3% but still lower than preceding quarter 7.3%, eps increased 182.7% and also higher than preceding quarter 204.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 29.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand improve, affect by weakening of USD against RM, benefit from improvement of average selling price
First Support Price1.15
Second Support Price1.0
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.54 (2012-01-05)
OSK Target Price1.48 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price1.33 (2012-02-09)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity16.16%
Dividend Yield1.64%
Profit Margin29.08%
Tax Rate0.08%
Asset Turnover1.169
Net Asset Value Per Share0.51
Net Tangible Asset per share0.51
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.76
Cash Per Share0.03
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7476
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1498
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1483
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.4631
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3165
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale19.3%
Days to sell the inventory62
Days to collect the receivables93
Days to pay the payables67

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.293 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 501.133 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.812 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.623 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.019203 ( 0.004276 )
Signal (9)0.039801 ( 0.005149 )
MACD Histogram0.020598 (Bearish trend 11 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due mainly to the better Average Selling Price("ASP") as a result of shortage in HDD mechanical components after the October 2011 Thailand floods and appreciating USD exchange rate coupled with effective products mix and continuing efficient cost management during the quarter under review

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 1047414*0.25/2044760 = 0.1281, estimate PE on current price 1.22 = 9.21(DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0103*1.2*4 = 0.0494, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.21/14.22 (DPS 0.0075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0061*1.1*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.38/14.09 (DPS 0.0075)

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KLCI Stock - ANNJOO / 6556 - 2011 Quarter 4

ANN JOO RESOURCES BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to higher sales tonnage contributed from both Manufacturing and Trading Divisions

- Manufacturing Division reported loss mainly due to higher cost of sales impacted by the absorption of initial start up cost of the blast furnace operations and high material costs attributable to a heightened volatility in global steel market

- Trading Division reported higher profit mainly due to higher sales tonnage as a result of the implementation of aggressive mark eting strategies for market share expansion coupled with the recovery in steel demand from various economic sectors

- Higher pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to the recognition of an allowance for diminution in value of inventories of RM37.88 mil and an unrealized foreign exchange loss of RM22.52 mil

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1075033*0.06/763411 = 0.0845, estimate PE on current price 2.05 = 23.61(DPS 0.055)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (37880+22520-29476)*0.83/763444*4*0.9 = 0.121, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.18/12.73 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0477*4*0.8 = 0.1526, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.56/11.25 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.04+0.0602)*2 = 0.2004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.3/10.96 (DPS 0.1234)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04*4 = 0.16, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.31/16.69 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0517*4 = 0.2068(0.0517 is average eps of Q110,Q409,Q308, due to steel price decreasing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.91/11.9 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0591*4 = 0.2364, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.39/9.31 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.048*4 = 0.192, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.68/13.54 (DPS 0.03)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0682*4 = 0.2728, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.17/8.69 (DPS 0.03)

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KLCI Stock - MAHSING / 8583 - 2011 Quarter 4

MAH SING GROUP BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Profit for the year reflects the mix of properties delivered and was arrived at after incorporating a non-recurring provision of RM11.8 million for future operating lease commitments on a commercial building successfully sold en-bloc in 2009

- The Group’s remaining undeveloped land at 1,060 acres with approximately RM14.8 billion in total GDV and unbilled sales provides steady earnings visibility for the next 5-7 years

- Plastics segment continued to grow steadily in sales volume of all product segments from proprietary plastics pallets, OEM parts for electrical and electronic products and automotive components

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 due mainly to the non-recurring provision in the current quarter for future operating lease commitments

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1088489*0.18/853767 = 0.2295, estimate PE on current price 2.21 = 9.3(DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0499*4*0.95 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.2/8.41 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4 = 0.2016, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.12/7.01 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0485*4 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/10.64 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0376*4*1.1 = 0.1654, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.05/13.2 (DPS 0.076)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0357*4*1.1 = 0.1571, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.6/10.85 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0355*4*1.1 = 0.1562, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.45/10.47 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034*4*1.1 = 0.1496, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.13/9.99 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0388*4 = 0.1552, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.6/10.53 (DPS 0.065)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0373*4 = 0.1492, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.73/10.72 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0366*4 = 0.1464, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.66/11.61 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.036*4 = 0.144, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.68/11.39 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0271*4 = 0.1084, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.33/13.28 (DPS 0.08)

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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

KLCI Stock - 3A / 0012 - 2011 Quarter 4

THREE-A RESOURCES BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly due to slightly higher demand for the Group's products and lower raw material costs as well as production efficiency

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 200988*0.09/393600 = 0.046, estimate PE on current price 1.22 = 26.26(DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0342, estimate highest/lowest PE = 41.75/31.81 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0107*4*0.8 = 0.0342, estimate highest/lowest PE = 39.12/30.94 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0153*2 = 0.0306, estimate highest/lowest PE = 60.46/45.42 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.015*4 = 0.06(base on 3% roe per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.8/23.13 (DPS 0.012)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0286*3 = 0.0858(0.0286 is recent 2Q cum_eps, FYQ1-11 & FYQ2-11 to double as current), estimate highest/lowest PE = 22.31/17.88 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.076, estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.89/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.076 (~30% EPS grow), estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.05/20.32 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0191*4 = 0.0764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 30.68/15.63 (DPS 0.016)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0178*4 = 0.0712, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.74/7.09 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.0069*4 = 0.0276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.56/11.96 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.0079*4 = 0.0316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.55/9.34 (DPS 0.01)

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KLCI Stock - DIGI / 6947 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,102,225,000 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.10

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(3.99-0.16)/0.1598 = 23.97 (High)
Target Price3.20+0.16 = 3.36 (PE 20.0, EPS 0.1598, DPS 0.16)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend and got very stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 1.7% and is continuous increasing since FY09Q2 and also is highest all the time(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 8.1%), eps increased 34.8% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.7%, cash generated from operating enough to cover all expenses, slightly higher liquidity ratio but still at weak level now, lower gearing rato but still at very high level now, payables ratio is high, maintaining very high ROE
First Support Price3.95
Second Support Price3.75
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
BNP Paribas Target Price3.07 (2011-05-04)
AMMB Target Price2.74 (2011-07-15)
Kenanga Target Price3.22 (2011-07-21)
TA Target Price3.17 (2011-07-21)
CIMB Target Price3.4 (2011-09-09)
HwangDBS Target Price3.22 (2011-09-09)
UOB Target Price3.39 (2011-10-14)
ECM Target Price3.63 (2011-10-25)
HLG Target Price3.17 (2012-01-20)
Maybank Target Price3.74 (2012-01-20)
MIDF Target Price4.35 (2012-01-20)
RHB Target Price4.4 (2012-01-20)
OSK Target Price4 (2012-02-23)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity88.87%
Dividend Yield29.20%
Profit Margin25.19%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.2263
Net Asset Value Per Share0.18
Net Tangible Asset per share0.09
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share43.11
Cash Per Share0.14
Liquidity Current Ratio0.6258
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.5996
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.4235
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.4457
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7098
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale-16.3%
Days to sell the inventory8
Days to collect the receivables28
Days to pay the payables270

Technical Analysis
SMA 203.998 (Uptrend 40 days)
SMA 503.832 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.391 (Uptrend)
SMA 200-0.057 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.06541 ( 0.006023 )
Signal (9)0.089683 ( 0.006068 )
MACD Histogram0.024273 (Bearish trend 58 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to revenue grew in mobile broadband/mobile internet

- Higher pat due to tax incentives related to mobile broadband network facilities

- Lower new added customer than FY11Q3 from 327k to 303k (prepaid: 287k to 264k, postpaid: 40k to 39k)

- Prepaid ARPU lower than FY11Q3 from RM43 to RM42

- Postpaid ARPU higher than FY11Q3 from RM85 to RM86

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 1411431*0.88/7775000 = 0.1598, estimate PE on current price 3.99 = 23.97(DPS 0.16)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.42*4*1.05 = 1.764, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.23/18.66 (DPS 1.48)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.4262*4*1.05 = 1.79, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.8/15.02 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.4262*4 = 1.7048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.6/15.31 (DPS 1.72)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1.5151*1.1 = 1.6666, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.42/14.85 (DPS 1.63)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 1.4051*1.1 = 1.5456, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.11/12.46 (DPS 1.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.3254*1.1 = 1.4579(10% grow from 1.3254), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.85/13.04 (DPS 1.99)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.3254(3% grow from 1.2868), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.01 (DPS 2.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.317*4 = 1.268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.21/15.82 (DPS 1.78)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.3139*4 = 1.2556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.27/15.47 (DPS 1.77)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.3016*4 = 1.2064, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.12/16.21 (DPS 1.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.3543*4 = 1.4172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.51/14.1 (DPS 1.62)

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KLCI Stock - CIMB / 1023 - 2011 Quarter 4

CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher pbt mainly from Treasury & Investment and Foreign Banking segments

- The Group’s Malaysian Consumer Banking division PBT declined 24.1% Q-o-Q mainly due to a one off change in methodology in provisions for retail loans. CIB was 42.7% lower given the slower advisory activities in 4Q11 but Treasury and Investments was 73.3% higher due to a large gain on deconsolidation of investment in CIMB Aviva. CIMB Niaga’s PBT contribution was 3.5% lower Q-o-Q at RM390 million. GAM and Insurance PBT fell 5.6% to RM17 million. CIMB Thai’s PBT contribution (after GAAP adjustments) increased three-fold to RM49 million compared to 3Q11

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 27005917*0.15/7432772 = 0.545, estimate PE on current price 7.5 = 13.32(DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.4176*1.05 = 0.4385, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.42/14.6 (DPS 0.24)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1305*0.8*4 = 0.4176(reduce 20% non-interest income due to market sluggish), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.22/15.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1097*4*1.1 = 0.4827(deduct RM160 million losses on loans, advance & financing), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.66 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.49*1.05 = 0.5145, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.86/14.69 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1267*4*0.97 = 0.4916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.29/15.99 (DPS 0.18)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.125*4*1.1 = 0.55, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.42/13.78 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2366*4*1.1 = 1.041(10% increase quarter-by-quarter), after bonus estimate eps = 1.041/2 = 0.5205, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.19/12.46 (DPS 0.185/2 = 0.0925)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2268*4*1.1 = 0.9979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.67/12.5 (DPS 0.185)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.2058*4*1.1 = 0.9055, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.72/13.04 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1879*4*1.1 = 0.8268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.59/11.73 (DPS 0.25)

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KLCI Stock - TDM / 2054 - 2011 Quarter 4

TDM BERHAD


My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt than FY10Q4 benefiting from both higher production of CPO and higher CPO prices

- Lower revenue and pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to lower FFB & CPO productions and lower average CPO & PK prices

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 1174607*0.14/240544 = 0.6836, estimate PE on current price 4.76 = 6.65(DPS 0.215)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.6207*1.1 = 0.6828, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.87/4.79 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1258+0.1354)*2*0.9 = 0.4702, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.98/5.17 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1258*0.85*4 = 0.4277, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.13/5.96 (DPS 0.17)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.4184*0.9 = 0.3766, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.03/6.63 (DPS 0.135)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.4, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.75 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0933*4 = 0.3732(0.0933 is average of eps in FY10Q1 and FY09Q4), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.54/4.82 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0889*4 = 0.3556, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/4.16 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.2503*1.2 = 0.3004, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.23/5.13 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = (0.0923+0.0418+0.019)/3*4*1.2 = 0.245, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.37/5.51 (DPS 0.14)

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Sunday, February 26, 2012

KLCI Stock - ZHULIAN / 5131 - 2011 Quarter 4


Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)855,600,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(1.86-0.12)/0.2169 = 8.02 (Moderate)
Target Price1.95+0.12 = 2.07 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.2169, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price support and uptrend above 1.85
Comment
Revenue decreased 5.4% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 2.3%, eps increased 18.3% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 18.6%, cash generated from operating enough to cover financing expenses but still spent 2.9% of Group cash for investing expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from high to strong level now, lower gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate higher demand of products, affecting by weakening of USD dollar against Ringgit
First Support Price1.85
Second Support Price1.65
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
HwangDBS Target Price2.5 (2011-02-09)
ZJ Target Price2.4 (2012-01-26)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity24.29%
Dividend Yield6.45%
Profit Margin40.25%
Tax Rate17.61%
Asset Turnover0.8013
Net Asset Value Per Share0.85
Net Tangible Asset per share0.85
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.22
Cash Per Share0.28
Liquidity Current Ratio4.5495
Liquidity Quick Ratio3.5766
Liquidity Cash Ratio2.5461
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1373
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1207
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale49.8%
Days to sell the inventory64
Days to collect the receivables50
Days to pay the payables60

Technical Analysis 
SMA 201.894 (Downtrend 1 day)
SMA 501.805 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.715 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.668 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.012482 ( 0.002225 )
Signal (9)0.021825 ( 0.002336 )
MACD Histogram0.009343 (Bearish trend 13 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY11Q3 mainly due to a drop in the local market demand however got higher pbt due mainly to contributed by increase in share of profit of equity accounted investee as well as the strengthening of USD against Ringgit Malaysia

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 392351*0.24/460000 = 0.2047, estimate PE on current price 1.86 = 8.02(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0529+0.0457)*2*1.1 = 0.2169, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.25/7.05 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0457+0.0478)*2*1.05 = 0.1964, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.55/7.03 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0478*4 = 0.1912, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.73/8.16 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0959*2*1.05 = 0.2014, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.44/7.6 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0431*4*1.1 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.39/8.33 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0522*4*1.1 = 0.2297, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/7.23 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.072*4 = 0.288, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.76/7.47 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0715*4 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.66/5.84 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.069*4 = 0.276, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.38/5.04 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0484*4 = 0.1936, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.35/6.56 (DPS 0.12)

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Saturday, February 25, 2012

KLCI Stock - AJIYA / 7609 - 2011 Quarter 4

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to better market sentiment but overall profit margin still decreasing compared to earlier year

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 265072*0.06/69224 = 0.2298, estimate PE on current price 1.72 = 7.48
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0395*4*1.05 = 0.1659, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.19/9.4 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.157*2*0.9 = 0.2826, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.1 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0529*4*1.05 = 0.2222, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.46/7.11 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.07(average eps from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.46/6.25 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.08(average eps)*4*0.95 = 0.304, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.84/6.38 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.3427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.19/5.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0816*4 = 0.3264+0.0163 = 0.3427 (5% grow from 0.3264 due to recovery from previous weak market), estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.16/4.99 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.312(2% drop from 0.3184), estimate PE on current price 2.14 = 6.67(DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.28, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.39/5.18 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.23, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.52/5.22 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 5.15/4.46 (DPS 0.06)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.26, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.69/3.65 (DPS 0.06)

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Friday, February 24, 2012

KLCI Stock - PWROOT / 7237 - 2012 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)154,500,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.20

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.515-0.04)/0.0496 = 9.58 (Moderate)
Target Price0.50+0.04 = 0.54 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.0496, DPS 0.04)
DecisionBUY for dividend
Comment
Revenue increased 5.9% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing(higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 43.6%), eps increased 81.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 305.3%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, lower liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, higher inventory can indicate stronger demand of Group products
First Support Price0.505
Second Support Price0.48
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
JF Apex Target Price0.61 (2011-01-26)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity7.82%
Dividend Yield7.77%
Profit Margin10.88%
Tax Rate23.71%
Asset Turnover0.8514
Net Asset Value Per Share0.62
Net Tangible Asset per share0.6
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.82
Cash Per Share0.12
Liquidity Current Ratio3.1895
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.5135
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7481
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2799
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.2187
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale51.5%
Days to sell the inventory125
Days to collect the receivables143
Days to pay the payables157

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.517 (Uptrend 22 days)
SMA 500.501 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.498 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.509 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.004463 ( 0.00047 )
Signal (9)0.005725 ( 0.000315 )
MACD Histogram0.001262 (Bearish trend 6 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt mainly attributable to the increase in local and export sales from the Group's Fast Moving Consumer Goods business

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q3 result announced = 185972*0.08/300000 = 0.0496(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 0.515 = 9.58(DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.0085*4 = 0.034, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15/12.79 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0407*1.05 = 0.0427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.76/10.19 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0407*1.05 = 0.0427, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.47/11.83 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0323+0.0038)*1.1 = 0.0397, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.74/11.08 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0285*2*0.95 = 0.0542, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.56/8.67 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0338*1.1 = 0.0372(10% increase from 0.0338), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.55/13.98 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0338(follow 2010 cumulative eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.57/13.46 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.04, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.25/11.13 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.68/12.03 (DPS 0.04)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.034, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.94/12.35 (DPS 0.03)

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)33,342,547,986 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.11-0.045)/0.4405 = 13.77 (Moderate)
Target Price6.17+0.045 = 6.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4405, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to bullish trend and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 4.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.5%, eps decreased 50.4% loss but was 125.3% from profit to loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all of financing expenses but got borrowings to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high coal price, lower affect by alternative fuels, offset the effect of strengthen of JPN and USD against RM from Dec to Jan since middle of Jan due to strengthening of RM
First Support Price6.0
Second Support Price5.4
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price7.93 (2011-07-18)
HLG Target Price5.1 (2011-10-31)
Affin Target Price6.7 (2011-11-10)
CIMB Target Price6.47 (2011-12-02)
ECM Target Price7.96 (2011-12-07)
Maybank Target Price6.9 (2012-01-18)
MIDF Target Price6.7 (2012-01-18)
OSK Target Price6.36 (2012-01-18)
RHB Target Price6.5 (2012-01-18)
ZJ Target Price6.4 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price7 (2012-02-08)
AMMB Target Price6.95 (2012-02-17)
HLG Target Price6.5 (2012-02-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-1.63%
Dividend Yield0.74%
Profit Margin-2.48%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4138
Net Asset Value Per Share5.45
Net Tangible Asset per share5.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.14
Cash Per Share1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1247
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7937
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9917
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6773
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6242
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale27.2%
Days to sell the inventory29
Days to collect the receivables67
Days to pay the payables72

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.104 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 505.924 (Uptrend)
SMA 1005.707 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.937 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.033009 ( 0.001526 )
Signal (9)0.05285 ( 0.00496 )
MACD Histogram0.019841 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and SESB however got loss from profit as a result of the utilization of alternative fuels, namely oil and distillate and the increase in the average coal price consumed from USD95.4 to USD 110 per metric tonne

- Lower loss than FY11Q4 mainly attributed by lower utilization of alternative fuels

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 6.11 = 13.77(DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

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Wednesday, February 22, 2012

KLCI Stock - KAF / 5096 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)228,000,000 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.9-0.075)/0.1339 = 13.63 (High)
Target Price1.61+0.075 = 1.68 (PE 12.0, EPS 0.1339, DPS 0.075)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to uptrend
Comment
Revenue decreased 35.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 40.4%, eps increased 64.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 63.1%, not enough cash for operating activities but cash from disposal more than enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now
First Support Price1.7
Second Support Price1.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity3.74%
Dividend Yield7.89%
Profit Margin59.81%
Tax Rate20.36%
Asset Turnover0.0815
Net Asset Value Per Share1.91
Net Tangible Asset per share1.89
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.85
Cash Per Share1.68
Liquidity Current Ratio2.2609
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.2609
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.1909
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.7386
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4245
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale657.0%
Days to sell the inventory-
Days to collect the receivables1959
Days to pay the payables2333

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.841 (Uptrend 18 days)
SMA 501.605 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.429 (Uptrend)
SMA 2001.353 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.091265 ( 0.005746 )
Signal (9)0.104404 ( 0.003285 )
MACD Histogram0.013139 (Bearish trend 4 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due mainly to lower operating revenue and other income offset by higher other operating expenses

- Higher pbt than FY12Q1 due mainly to higher other income and lower operating revenue offset by lower staff expenses

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 229485*0.07/120000 = 0.1339(ROE 7%), estimate PE on current price 1.9 = 13.63(DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1584*0.8 = 0.1267, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.55/9.67 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1584*0.9 = 0.1426, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.13/7.89 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.1953*0.85 = 0.166, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.58/7.74 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.1819*1.05 = 0.191, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.72/6.73 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.1806*1.05 = 0.1896, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.94/6.99 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1729*0.9 = 0.1556(10% drop due to assets decreased), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.03/7.49 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0443(average from recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.1772, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.93/6.35 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2262, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.26/5.11 (DPS 0.075)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.8/4.97 (DPS 0.075)

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

KLCI Stock - LPI / 8621 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,961,314,852 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(13.38-0.75)/0.7497 = 16.85 (Moderate)
Target Price13.49+0.75 = 14.24 (PE 18.0, EPS 0.7497, DPS 0.75)
DecisionBUY if MACD and signal start moving back to uptrend and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 1.2% and was fourth consecutive quarter increasing (higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 25.5%), eps decreased 12.8% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.8%, not enough cash for operating expenses hence increased borrowing and spent 30.9% of Group cash to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at very strong level now, lower gearing ratio but still at high level now, general insurance revenue and profit increasing
First Support Price13.3
Second Support Price12.5
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
OSK Target Price13.6 (2011-10-07)
RHB Target Price11.6 (2012-01-10)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity13.08%
Dividend Yield5.61%
Profit Margin21.73%
Tax Rate24.36%
Asset Turnover0.3754
Net Asset Value Per Share5.36
Net Tangible Asset per share5.36
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.58
Cash Per Share1.89
Liquidity Current Ratio5.9659
Liquidity Quick Ratio4.0625
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.9323
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.0356
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.5087
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale118.2%
Days to sell the inventory299
Days to collect the receivables185
Days to pay the payables121

Technical Analysis
SMA 2013.442 (Downtrend 6 days)
SMA 5013.164 (Uptrend)
SMA 10012.603 (Uptrend)
SMA 20012.725 (Uptrend)
MACD (26d/12d)0.064559 ( 0.010365 )
Signal (9)0.093426 ( 0.007217 )
MACD Histogram0.028867 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly contributed by higher gross earned premium

- Higher pbt than FY10Q4 due to growth in the gross earned premium and lower net commission expense

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 mainly due to higher investment income received in the preceding quarter. The current quarter‟s results was also negatively impacted by the huge losses incurred by the Malaysian Motor Insurance Pool (MMIP), which was formed to cater for unplaced motor risks. All licensed general insurers have an equal share of participation in the pool. Our share of loss through the MMIP was RM11.1 million. This resulted in an increase in our motor loss ratio to 81.1% and dampened underwriting profits

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.1785*4*1.05 = 0.7497, estimate PE on current price 13.38 = 16.85(DPS 0.75)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = (0.2048+0.1426)*2 = 0.6948, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.94/15.98 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = (0.1754+0.1426)*2*1.05 = 0.6678, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.22/16.05 (DPS 0.7)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.1754*4*1.1 = 0.7718, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.19/16.65 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.6383*1.1 = 0.7021, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.27/17.73 (DPS 0.55)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.1685*4*1.05 = 0.7077, estimate highest/lowest PE = 19.57/15.42 (DPS 0.37)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.46/15.5 (DPS 0.5125)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 1.0303(10% grow from 0.9366), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.15/12.76 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 1.0533(15% grow from 0.9159), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.94/11.53 (DPS 0.675)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 1.0253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.23/11.16 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 1.0204, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.43/10.25 (DPS 0.74)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.979, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.88/8.63 (DPS 0.85)

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