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Monday, February 13, 2012

KLCI Stock - UMCCA / 2593 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)1,381,109,926 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.8-0.275)/0.5139 = 12.70 (Moderate)
Target Price6.68+0.275 = 6.96 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.5139, DPS 0.275)
DecisionBUY if stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue decreased 16.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.2%, eps decreased 18.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.6%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, crop production increased, benefit from CPO price above 3k
First Support Price6.7
Second Support Price6.5

Research House
TA Target Price6.9 (2011-12-27)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.17%
Dividend Yield4.04%
Profit Margin51.29%
Tax Rate22.51%
Asset Turnover0.2072
Net Asset Value Per Share5.12
Net Tangible Asset per share5.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.33
Cash Per Share0.85
Liquidity Current Ratio6.7918
Liquidity Quick Ratio6.2672
Liquidity Cash Ratio5.7857
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.1079
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.0974
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale72.5%
Days to sell the inventory47
Days to collect the receivables22
Days to pay the payables68

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.772 (Uptrend 37 days)
SMA 506.653 (Uptrend)
SMA 1006.581 (Same)
SMA 2006.637 (Uptrend)
MACD0.066879 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram0.010428 (Uptrend 42 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower CPO and PK prices as well as lower investment income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.1156*3+0.1426)*1.05 = 0.5139, estimate PE on current price 6.8 = 12.7(DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1426*4*0.9 = 0.5134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1125*4 = 0.45, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/12.89 (DPS 0.25)

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