KLCI Stock - UMCCA / 2593 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	1,381,109,926 (Large)
Par Value	RM 1.00

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	(6.8-0.275)/0.5139 = 12.70 (Moderate)
Target Price	6.68+0.275 = 6.96 (PE 13.0, EPS 0.5139, DPS 0.275)
Decision	BUY if stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue decreased 16.5% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.2%, eps decreased 18.9% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.6%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at very strong level now, slightly higher gearing ratio at low level now, all accounting ratio are good, crop production increased, benefit from CPO price above 3k
First Support Price	6.7
Second Support Price	6.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

TA Target Price

6.9 (2011-12-27)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	9.17%
Dividend Yield	4.04%
Profit Margin	51.29%
Tax Rate	22.51%
Asset Turnover	0.2072
Net Asset Value Per Share	5.12
Net Tangible Asset per share	5.03
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.33
Cash Per Share	0.85
Liquidity Current Ratio	6.7918
Liquidity Quick Ratio	6.2672
Liquidity Cash Ratio	5.7857
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.1079
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.0974
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	72.5%
Days to sell the inventory	47
Days to collect the receivables	22
Days to pay the payables	68

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	6.772 (Uptrend 37 days)
SMA 50	6.653 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	6.581 (Same)
SMA 200	6.637 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.066879 (Downtrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram	0.010428 (Uptrend 42 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower pbt than FY12Q1 mainly due to lower CPO and PK prices as well as lower investment income

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = (0.1156*3+0.1426)*1.05 = 0.5139, estimate PE on current price 6.8 = 12.7(DPS 0.275)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1426*4*0.9 = 0.5134, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.66/11.2 (DPS 0.25)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1125*4 = 0.45, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.27/12.89 (DPS 0.25)

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