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Thursday, February 23, 2012

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)33,342,547,986 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.11-0.045)/0.4405 = 13.77 (Moderate)
Target Price6.17+0.045 = 6.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4405, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to bullish trend and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 4.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.5%, eps decreased 50.4% loss but was 125.3% from profit to loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all of financing expenses but got borrowings to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high coal price, lower affect by alternative fuels, offset the effect of strengthen of JPN and USD against RM from Dec to Jan since middle of Jan due to strengthening of RM
First Support Price6.0
Second Support Price5.4
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price7.93 (2011-07-18)
HLG Target Price5.1 (2011-10-31)
Affin Target Price6.7 (2011-11-10)
CIMB Target Price6.47 (2011-12-02)
ECM Target Price7.96 (2011-12-07)
Maybank Target Price6.9 (2012-01-18)
MIDF Target Price6.7 (2012-01-18)
OSK Target Price6.36 (2012-01-18)
RHB Target Price6.5 (2012-01-18)
ZJ Target Price6.4 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price7 (2012-02-08)
AMMB Target Price6.95 (2012-02-17)
HLG Target Price6.5 (2012-02-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-1.63%
Dividend Yield0.74%
Profit Margin-2.48%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4138
Net Asset Value Per Share5.45
Net Tangible Asset per share5.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.14
Cash Per Share1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1247
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7937
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9917
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6773
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6242
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale27.2%
Days to sell the inventory29
Days to collect the receivables67
Days to pay the payables72

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.104 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 505.924 (Uptrend)
SMA 1005.707 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.937 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.033009 ( 0.001526 )
Signal (9)0.05285 ( 0.00496 )
MACD Histogram0.019841 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and SESB however got loss from profit as a result of the utilization of alternative fuels, namely oil and distillate and the increase in the average coal price consumed from USD95.4 to USD 110 per metric tonne

- Lower loss than FY11Q4 mainly attributed by lower utilization of alternative fuels

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 6.11 = 13.77(DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)

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