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Thursday, February 23, 2012

KLCI Stock - TENAGA / 5347 - 2012 Quarter 1

TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD

Company Description
TENAGA NASIONAL BERHAD (TNB) is engaged in the business of the generation, transmission, distribution and sale of electricity. The Company’s subsidiaries include TNB Engineering Corporation Sdn Bhd, TNB Repair and Maintenance Sdn Bhd, TNB Engineers Sdn Bhd, TNB Capital (L) Ltd, Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd, Malaysia Transformer Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and TNB Coal International Ltd. The principal activities of the subsidiaries include project management and consultancy, engineering works and energy project development services, repair, maintenance and testing of power plants, providing engineering, procurement and construction services for power related projects and investment holding. In December 2007, it acquired Orion Mission Sdn. Bhd. As of March 3, 2008, Khazanah Nasional Berhad held 100% interest in the Company.

Company Info
Listing Date1992-05-28
Market Capital (Capital Size)33,342,547,986 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
BoardMain
SectorTrading/Services
Major IndustryUtilities
Sub IndustryPower Generation
Websitehttp://www.tnb.com.my

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(6.11-0.045)/0.4405 = 13.77 (Moderate)
Target Price6.17+0.045 = 6.21 (PE 14.0, EPS 0.4405, DPS 0.045)
DecisionNot interested unless MACD moving back to bullish trend and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue decreased 4.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 12.5%, eps decreased 50.4% loss but was 125.3% from profit to loss compared to preceding year corresponding quarter, cash generated from operating not enough to cover all of financing expenses but got borrowings to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio from low to moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at high level now, all accounting ratio are good, affecting by high coal price, lower affect by alternative fuels, offset the effect of strengthen of JPN and USD against RM from Dec to Jan since middle of Jan due to strengthening of RM
First Support Price6.0
Second Support Price5.4
Risk RatingHIGH

Research House
Citi Target Price7.9 (2011-05-31)
Kenanga Target Price7.93 (2011-07-18)
HLG Target Price5.1 (2011-10-31)
Affin Target Price6.7 (2011-11-10)
CIMB Target Price6.47 (2011-12-02)
ECM Target Price7.96 (2011-12-07)
Maybank Target Price6.9 (2012-01-18)
MIDF Target Price6.7 (2012-01-18)
OSK Target Price6.36 (2012-01-18)
RHB Target Price6.5 (2012-01-18)
ZJ Target Price6.4 (2012-02-02)
HwangDBS Target Price7 (2012-02-08)
AMMB Target Price6.95 (2012-02-17)
HLG Target Price6.5 (2012-02-17)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity-1.63%
Dividend Yield0.74%
Profit Margin-2.48%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.4138
Net Asset Value Per Share5.45
Net Tangible Asset per share5.45
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.14
Cash Per Share1.45
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1247
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.7937
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9917
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio1.6773
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6242
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale27.2%
Days to sell the inventory29
Days to collect the receivables67
Days to pay the payables72

Technical Analysis
SMA 206.104 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 505.924 (Uptrend)
SMA 1005.707 (Uptrend)
SMA 2005.937 (Same)
MACD (26d/12d)0.033009 ( 0.001526 )
Signal (9)0.05285 ( 0.00496 )
MACD Histogram0.019841 (Bearish trend 19 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY11Q1 mainly from sales of electricity in Peninsular Malaysia and SESB however got loss from profit as a result of the utilization of alternative fuels, namely oil and distillate and the increase in the average coal price consumed from USD95.4 to USD 110 per metric tonne

- Lower loss than FY11Q4 mainly attributed by lower utilization of alternative fuels

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 30044200*0.08/5456669 = 0.4405(ROE 8%), estimate PE on current price 6.11 = 13.77(DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q4 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2 and higher tariff, 4Q eps = 0.4424*1.2 = 0.5309, estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.97/9.97 (DPS 0.045)
- Price moving after 2011 Q3 result announced mainly base on technical analysis and ad-hos news, however if based on average eps of FY11Q1 & FY11Q2, 4Q eps = 0.1229*4*0.9 = 0.4424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.18/10.61 (DPS 0.195)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.1415+0.163)*2*1.05 = 0.6395, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.96/9.01 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.7355*0.8 = 0.5884, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/9.74 (DPS 0.21)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.089*4 = 0.356, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.21/21.88 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.71*1.05 = 0.7455 (5% increase adjustment), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.22/11.21 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.2066+0.1859+0.1673+0.1506 = 0.71 (average 10% drop each quarter, coal price increasing but strong Ringgit offset some impact), estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.14/11.01 (DPS 0.183)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.6484, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.38/11.67 (DPS 0.163)

Coal price chart
- http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/chart-coalaust.html
- http://www.globalcoal.com/

MYR/JPY chart

TENAGA latest news (English)

TENAGA latest news (Chinese)



Financial Quarter Summary
a_dateyearqrth_pricel_pricedivroec_roerevc_revpbtc_pbtprofc_profepsc_epsassetliabminoequicfocficffcashfcfnetfinalsharec_sharem_capdateprof_mvatasset_tpenavpsntapsp/ntapscpsl_curl_quil_cashg_deg_daavg_winv_drec_dpay_d
2012-01-1720121N/AN/A-0.75%0.75%869440086944002154002154002248002248000.04120.0412799507004990650028930030044200790800918700409280039550001279003964900791990054566695456669339950472011-11-302.48%-0.4138-5.455.451.141.452.12471.79370.99171.67730.624227.2%296772
2011-10-28201146.45.34-1.50%1.65%9120200322069006605005467004539004995000.08310.09147461140044339700916003027170050980005212300427200083405001143004386300395420054624475462447320099392011-08-317.24%-0.430564.0845.535.531.060.731.51141.20190.46351.46920.594313.6%316979
2011-07-21201136.474.89-1.51%3.11%77681002299800060140011185004402009030000.08060.165373088300440111006220029077200362680025905003110500834080010363002074200626660054636555463655356230302011-05-317.74%-0.4223-5.315.311.231.151.47231.17220.68191.51680.602214.1%345383
2011-04-21201127.215.960.0452.13%4.53%750350015229900722300171990063030013432000.14150.30167461190044975900388002963600029447001335100135180083411001609600257800859890044530804453080268520722011-02-289.63%12.57%0.4131-6.656.650.911.931.5431.29740.86121.51960.602817.6%325177
2011-01-19201116.535.94-2.41%2.41%772640077264009976009976007129007129000.16300.163074829400451888003760029640600167190057910018540083415001092800907400924890043747204374720283919322010-11-3012.91%28.34%0.4104-6.776.770.962.141.5761.32770.94151.52650.603918.7%344577
2010-10-28201048.886.440.21.29%17.24%786940032320100499900602210038840052019000.08901.192575880600457003003560030180300797480035437002249100616170044311002182000834370043620604362060386914722010-08-316.35%22.18%0.39967.4386.916.911.281.931.65921.40690.86751.5160.602321.1%346386
2010-07-14201039.298.54-3.90%9.91%77233002245070012868003522200110710028135000.25390.645373276800448930003500028383800569250022652001624100616230034273001803200796550043598074359807375379382010-05-3116.66%13.79%0.4082-6.56.51.321.852.03931.7151.15061.58360.612624.3%324879
2010-04-20201028.88.00.063.64%6.21%73891001472740012623002235400100010017064000.22960.3917727141004525640032800274577003246200135770097900061630001888500909500707250043566004356600370311002010-02-2817.08%20.66%0.4015-6.36.31.351.642.01951.69511.04591.65020.622423.9%325577
2010-01-20201018.847.73-2.67%2.67%733830073383009731009731007063007063000.16210.16217199510045568400314002642670015500005724004795006158700977600498100665680043569494356949355527032009-11-3013.26%28.32%0.3988-6.066.061.351.531.69131.41650.87761.72640.632918.3%305289
2009-10-26200948.558.080.1230.63%3.52%74626002878560026010015431001643009179000.03790.21157136300045316700402002604630074099003832900279410053810003577000782900616390043401824340182368047432009-08-313.49%48.71%0.403440.09675.995.991.421.431.64661.37730.85161.74250.63516.3%284885
2009-07-22200938.577.95-3.94%2.91%7001800213230001240300128300010231007536000.23600.17397017970044245400711002593430047115002567800243240053820002143700288700509330043346044334604364106732009-05-3117.71%18.91%0.3999-5.975.971.411.181.70711.35940.77931.71070.630516.5%334975
2009-04-15200928.66.70.042.69%1.08%690660014321200815400427006746002695000.15560.0622697051004467030088000250348002486900162970017184005386500857200861200452530043345724334572281747182009-02-2811.81%19.73%0.3882-5.765.761.131.051.72041.3370.72091.79060.640816.8%365275
2009-01-19200916.655.6-3.82%3.82%741460074146007727007727009441009441000.21780.21787032990045594100108100247358007781006300003654005385900148100217300516860043346044334604262243542008-11-3010.42%-0.3715-5.685.681.071.21.69781.34480.75711.85130.648318.3%385686
2008-10-16200846.855.80.11.10%10.07%674310024755300275200302520028290025940000.06530.598469841900440800001047002576190073414004036400320030052792003305000104700538390043351834335183286122072008-08-314.08%-0.356811.03015.925.921.111.251.67551.34070.81131.7180.631118.1%385193
2008-07-24200838.556.0-1.14%11.00%599740018012200440100330180029930028783000.06900.660968853900426857001031002616820048558002652000278290052853002203800579100470620043350064354806348967982008-05-317.34%32.72%0.353-5.995.991.341.091.82111.40980.8051.63770.619919.8%445384
2008-04-14200829.16.550.14.05%9.82%59725001201480012177002861700106410025790000.24430.592268500500422308001063002626970036570001753800206320052892001903200160000512920043550344354902304852382008-02-2920.39%12.12%0.3535-6.016.011.161.181.83571.46560.88971.61410.616520.0%404880
2008-01-152008110.06.6-5.90%5.90%6208300620830016445001644500151540015154000.34800.3480681312004246150010030025669700173860076310012057005285500975500230200505530043540804354080433230962008-11-3026.49%7.73%0.3512-5.875.871.71.171.75431.39710.84871.66060.623218.9%414886
2007-10-252007410.48.650.1630.70%16.84%612600023320400330000476360016890040588000.03870.930067724600436277009830024096900986520047784003730200394270050868001356600529930043636714364146497458492007-08-315.39%57.48%0.344312.25765.55.52.071.221.50621.24480.78631.81790.644214.7%354690
2007-07-1320073N/AN/A0.14.48%15.94%59107001719440014478004433600109180038899000.25020.8920675073004311140015640024395900726810028312002652500392580044369001784400571020043636484361117506183162007-05-3124.49%23.66%0.338-5.565.562.091.311.52681.26830.80451.77860.638616.5%385290
2007-04-1620072N/AN/A0.16.65%11.96%56820001128370016518002985800155550027981000.35700.642766980000435940001429002338600044583001728200182260039297002730100907500483720043576084353838522912962007-02-2829.07%4.62%0.2524-5.345.342.251.121.49211.19420.67091.87560.650921.1%6081120
2007-01-2520071N/AN/A-5.73%5.73%5601700560170013476001347600125620012562000.29030.29036661830044694200122900219241002304100748400285000393350015557001270700520420043275634327563527962682006-11-3024.06%6.66%0.1685-5.045.042.421.211.38831.12340.66952.05010.670927.0%85114171
2006-10-1220064N/AN/A0.143.80%11.06%562030020384200801300279110074190021612000.17330.5056650921004554560012130019546500763290037094002802700282890039235001120800394970042808024274852421658992006-08-3114.26%6.26%0.086319.48334.544.542.170.931.40621.11630.59592.34470.699748.2%153225313

Financial Quarter Balance Sheet
yearqrtAvailable-for-sale financial assets (A-0)Available-for-sale investment (A-0)Coal mining rights (A-0)Deferred tax assets (A-0)Derivative assets (A-0)Derivative financial assets (A-0)Investment in associated companies (A-0)Investment in jointly controlled entity (A-0)Investments in unquoted shares (A-0)Join venture (A-0)Prepaid operating lease (A-0)Property, plant and equipment (A-0)Receivables (A-0)Amount due from associated companies (A-1)Amount due from jointly controlled entity (A-1)Cash and cash equivalents (A-1)Current asset classified as held for sales (A-1)Current tax assets (A-1)Derivative assets (A-1)Inventories (A-1)Marketable securities (A-1)Other investments (A-1)Other receivables (A-1)Trade receivables (A-1)Consumer deposits (L-0)Deferred income (L-0)Deferred tax liabilities (L-0)Derivative liabilities (L-0)Employee benefits (L-0)Government grant (L-0)Loans & borrowings (L-0)Other liabilities (L-0)Amount due to associated companies (L-1)Current tax liabilities (L-1)Deferred income (L-1)Derivative financial liabilities (L-1)Derivative liabilities (L-1)Loans & borrowings (L-1)Other payables (L-1)Trade and other payables (L-1)Minority interest (M-1)
20121-38000-23900-100000424700500164000--6182450038860028700-791990013800287100-26463008600-11643004917800313690027834007130000-4269300616900223597001615400611200570048910038900-141400013203004115700289300
2011438000--3020089900-407800600164000--6056950038860014600-395420011400264500150026459008600-12046004817500308490028496007155100441004220500627200173268004811007079005700523900--17273001469300411630091600
2011338100--4060073500-415300-50700--58919300-11000-62666001800034200-27625009700-178810026607003040000317780068263004450041459006447001672460020370072350015000---25270001710500422760062200
2011238100--4660072400-334500----58697400-7900-8598900180001460030024549009000-1453600286570029864003140600682530038300405290066830017057100211300617600483100--310036699001520000370200038800
2011138100--5140061900-305900----58666600-6600-92489001800011900-247480090001243001262800254920029450003107700684370056400396260060140017489800217000623400482000---37919001729100333880037600
2010438000--55900--245700-50700--588953004805005700-83437001800015200-24504008600725009333004267100290390027109007270800-386630059900018100900536400623600317600331300--31627001727100354980035600
2010338000-----290400--1520086190057810200-54001470079655001840010700-226750087007250012282002669500284880030101006819100-370620062940020706700179500588600450300---8656001555700353300035000
2010238000-----287700--770082250057745400-61001470070725001850011900-221900086007250013202003068800279550029815006731000-362690067580021440300165800424700533700---9407001445900349460032800
2010138000-----277300--760083050057971800-8500570066568001740016400-209090085001260012586002794500275260029663006665400-355160058710021262000173900505000390700---11162002022900357470031400
2009438000-----297300--790083360058227400-9200-61639001960015400-195570083001260013063002467800271730029522006640400-347060057980021458100235500294000206900---11579001454300414970040200
2009338000-----293300---83930057806300-46100-50933005010016400-228230078001260012840002410200267310029591006573300-338460054390021334800214300445700211000---11609001441500330320071100
2009238000-----284200---84460057692200-47200-45253003030015600-241710068001260013982002393000263430029270006515500-33093005413002219800024060038930052700---12315001289600334120088000
2009138000-----330300---83770057490300-45500-51686001410015000-241870067001260015053002447100259260029180006394700-32195005525002280340026130036920077100---121910016590003527700108100
2008438000-----322500---84410057475200-46100-53839001410014400-223030085001260013667002085500255190028994006337400-31248005636002168210025890034680069400---105830011877003999700104700
2008338000-----311000---84960056957200-46200-47062001630010800-2416300105001260014845001994700249090028612006224100-303300057790021487900136100231200216800---102690012252003174500103100
2008238000-----250400---85400056726200-45900-51292001191009900-2143600110001260014403001720300242190028452006099800-293020059210021413500136300207800406700---11011009955003080700106300
2008138000-----240500---86050056493000-45500-505530011410010500-2137700114001260013525001759600236550028243006073700-282990060630021635800141300223000393600---112750012116003029000100300
2007438000-----233000---85260056405300-45300-529930012500011600-1769500106001260013722001549600231960028035006274400-273060062050021963900145900226100226100---20155001067900323370098300
2007338000-271900---228900---85870055226400-46000-5710200414009500-1842100119001260014506001759100223260027585006098800-26243006316002155930077900197700786900---193650016223002585000156400
2007238000-274500---219000---84860054789300-44500-4837200407008700-2158700108001260016055002091900218810027145006048300-25253006428002215070079200209500591500---233520015385002570400142900
2007138000-277200---200200---16480055100300-44100-5204200414008500-206840099001260015448001903900218670026911006248900-24269006539002260940071000209400368600---329750015418002389000122900
2006438000-279900---200600---85680054344500-43600-3949700-10000-193180092001260015633001852100214770026758006424600-23141006650002458090072300212400184600---253470012447002488800121300

Financial Quarter Income Statement
yearqrtRevenueIncome tax expenseFinance/interest costsOther incomeAdministrative/Operating expensesMinority interestFinance/interest incomeShare of profit/ (loss) of associatesForeign exchange (loss)/gainAfter tax effect of interest savings on UCRISAfter-tax effect of interest expense on Guaranteed Exchangeable BondsShare of net profit of jointly controlled entity
201218694400770018190094900849180017006940020000420200--200
2011491202002287001801001256009494600221004200021700295900--600
201137768100142900231400153700844160018300843004620019300---
201127503500908001672001681007089000120010370014200188800--200
20111772640028270024910084600655760020008910010700106300--200
201047869400110900276500962007249200600675001740025100--200
201037723300177500263500105300692410022005380018900573200--100
20102738910026080027090098000616650014004750012600152400--100
201017338300275600260000828006179900880040900450044500---
20094746260012670028110092900681950030900419005900242600---
200937001800234500273700107400619800017300323009100561400---
2009269066001609002868001005005846200201005130010300120300---
20091741460016800028520056400658020034005160078001437700---
2008467431006100250500108000663820016004650011500295600---
20083599740014400027520022280053625003200502009400202500500--
20082597250014760028010099600493080060005100014600290000900--
20081620830012710029000021670047426002000-9400242200500--
200746126000189700338200186500510970028600-89005440005000-
200735910700342500329200140600471680013500-103004321001000-
20072568200076300323400123600429220020000-235004376007000-
2007156017008980031420014300042527001600-30016010032006800-
2006456203005020034440016170045971009200-860053300-5500-

Short form reference
a_date = announcement date, yr = financial year end, qrt = quarter
h_price = stock highest price during the quarter, l_price = stock lowest price during the quarter
div = dividend recommend or declare in the quarter, roe = return on equity
c_roe = cumulative of return on equity during the financial year
rev = revenue in the current quarter, c_rev = cumulative of revenue during the financial year
pbt = profit before tax in the current quarter, c_pbt = cumulative of profit before tax during the financial year
eps = earnings per share in the current quarter, c_eps = cumulative of earnings per share during the financial year
asset = total asset, liab = total liability, mino = minority interest, equi = total equity
cfo = net cash flow from operating activities, cfi = net cash flow from investing activities
cff = net cash flow from financing activities, cash = cash and cash equivalents as at beginning of financial year
final = cash and cash equivalents as at current financial period ended
share = diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares
c_share = cumulative of diluted/basic weighted average number of ordinary shares during the financial year
m_cap = market capital at announcement date of quarterly report, date = current financial period ended date
prof_m = profit margin, vat = income tax rate, pe = price earning per share ratio of recent four quarter
navps = net asset value per share, ntaps = net tangible asset per share, cps = cash per share
l_cur = liquidity current ratio, l_qui = liquidity quick ratio, l_cash = liquidity cash ratio
g_de = gearing debt to equity ratio, g_da = gearing debt to assets ratio
avg_w = working capital per thousand Ringgit sale
inv_d = days to sell the inventory, rec_d = days to collect the receivables
pay_d = days to pay the payables



6-Months Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com


CURRENT


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING
ANNUAL REPORTS


HISTORICAL


CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDING


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1-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

5-Years Historical Chart from shareinvestor.com

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