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Thursday, February 2, 2012

KLCI Stock - P&O / 6009 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)229,918,370 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(0.935-0.056)/0.238 = 3.69 (Moderate)
Target Price1.90+0.056 = 1.96 (PE 8.0, EPS 0.238, DPS 0.056)
DecisionBUY if stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 1.4% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 10.9%, eps decreased 9.6% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 28.8%, no cash generated from operating but cash generated from financing enough to cover all expenses, stronger liquidity ratio at strong level now, higher reinsurance assets which could turn into higher revenue, insurance division still recorded high profit
First Support Price0.925
Second Support Price0.88
Risk RatingMODERATE

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity23.21%
Dividend Yield5.99%
Profit Margin15.20%
Tax Rate26.69%
Asset Turnover0.5144
Net Asset Value Per Share0.87
Net Tangible Asset per share0.86
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.87
Cash Per Share2.48
Liquidity Current Ratio6.5455
Liquidity Quick Ratio5.2492
Liquidity Cash Ratio4.3127
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio3.8287
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7929
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale148.1%
Days to sell the inventory143
Days to collect the receivables91
Days to pay the payables27

Technical Analysis
SMA 200.927 (Uptrend 40 days)
SMA 500.845 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.769 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.733 (Same)
MACD0.055712 (Downtrend 3 days)
MACD Histogram0.001254 (Uptrend 69 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributable to higher gross premium recorded by the insurance subsidiary

- Lower pbt than FY10Q4 mainly attributable to higher net claims incurred at the insurance subsidiary

- Lower pbt than FY11Q3 due mainly to impairment loss of available-for-sale financial assets of RM3,665,000, at the insurance subsidiary

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate PE on current price 0.935 = 3.69(DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0368+0.0658)*2*0.75 = 0.1539, estimate highest/lowest PE = 4.96/4.12 (DPS 0.056)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0368*4*0.9 = 0.1325, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.18/5.24 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0277*4 = 0.1108(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.66/6.35 (DPS 0.006)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.05*4/2 = 0.1(ROE 3.5% per quarter), estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.6/7.7

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