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Sunday, February 5, 2012

KLCI Stock - TONGHER / 5010 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)271,425,900 (Small)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(2.13-0.08)/0.2138 = 9.59 (Moderate)
Target Price2.14+0.08 = 2.22 (PE 10.0, EPS 0.2138, DPS 0.08)
DecisionBUY if stock price near to SMA20 and Bolinger upper band open and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue decreased 10.4% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 54.2%, eps decreased 64.6% and was second consecutive quarter decreasing and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 51.4%, cash generate from operating and financing more than enough to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at moderate now, higher inventory which still indicate high revenue in near future, affected by strengthened of RM against USD
First Support Price2.03
Second Support Price1.93

Research House
OSK Target Price2.4 (2011-08-22)
Affin Target Price2.85 (2011-09-07)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity9.08%
Dividend Yield3.76%
Profit Margin5.26%
Tax Rate22.17%
Asset Turnover1.0102
Net Asset Value Per Share2.47
Net Tangible Asset per share2.47
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.83
Cash Per Share0.87
Liquidity Current Ratio2.1661
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.992
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.6384
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5746
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3127
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale34.8%
Days to sell the inventory142
Days to collect the receivables37
Days to pay the payables10

Technical Analysis
SMA 202.074 (Uptrend 19 days)
SMA 502.015 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.995 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.165 (Downtrend)
MACD0.026069 (Uptrend 4 days)
MACD Histogram0.014315 (Uptrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2011 Quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue than FY10Q3 due to increasing demand, and consolidation of the newly acquired subsidiaries, Tong Heer Aluminium Indus, Tong Heer Aluminium Industries Sdn Bhd and its subsidiaries but lower pbt mainly contributed by the unrealized loss on foreign exchange, as a result of the strengthened RM against USD and partially offset higher sales demand

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 due to lower sales and unrealized loss on foreign exchange

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.075+0.0319)*2 = 0.2138, estimate PE on current price 2.13 = 9.59(DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.075*4 = 0.3(exclude RM1.8m other income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.07/5.93 (DPS 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = (0.1043+0.0543)*2 = 0.3172, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.23/5.67 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0375*4 = 0.15(0.0375 is average eps of recent 2 quarter exclude non-repeatable profit RM 5.1 million), estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.93/12.33 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.154*1.1 = 0.1694(0.154 is recent 4Q cum_eps), estimate highest/lowest PE = 11.22/9.92 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0347(average of recent 3Q)*4 = 0.1388, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.54/11.53 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0469*4 = 0.1876, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/8.8 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0278*4 = 0.1112, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.19/14.39 (DPS 0.05)

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