KLCI Stock - KPJ / 5878 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,947,406,110 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.50

My Analysis 

Forecast P/E now	(4.96-0.12)/0.2072 = 23.36 (High)
Target Price	4.56+0.12 = 4.68 (PE 22.0, EPS 0.2072, DPS 0.12)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 1.1% and was third consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 9.1%, eps increased 1.2% and was second consecutive quarter increasing but still lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 1.8%, cash generated from operating more than enough for financing expenses but still generated cash from financing activities to cover investing expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, lower gearing ratio from high to above moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good
First Support Price	4.75
Second Support Price	4.5
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

MIDF Target Price	4.6 (2011-04-14)
TA Target Price	5.04 (2011-08-22)
OSK Target Price	5.21 (2011-11-18)
Maybank Target Price	5.1 (2011-11-30)
RHB Target Price	4.71 (2011-12-07)

Accounting Ratio 

Return on Equity	13.27%
Dividend Yield	2.50%
Profit Margin	10.00%
Tax Rate	22.77%
Asset Turnover	1.0526
Net Asset Value Per Share	1.38
Net Tangible Asset per share	1.16
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	3.6
Cash Per Share	0.32
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.4984
Liquidity Quick Ratio	1.3972
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.5007
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.9188
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.4498
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	12.0%
Days to sell the inventory	10
Days to collect the receivables	59
Days to pay the payables	66

Technical Analysis 

SMA 20	4.811 (Uptrend 22 days)
SMA 50	4.432 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	4.114 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	4.061 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.171844 (Uptrend 6 days)
MACD Histogram	0.016948 (Uptrend 74 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue and pbt due to increase in revenue of the hospitals

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0503*4*1.03 = 0.2072, estimate PE on current price 4.96 = 23.36(DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0497*4*1.03 = 0.2048, estimate highest/lowest PE = 21.63/17.77 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0462*4*1.05 = 0.194, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.56/20.21 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.73/15.99 (DPS 0.15)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0512*4*1.1 = 0.2253, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.18/15.71 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0506*4*1.1 = 0.2226, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.34/13.7 (DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.2174, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.25/13.02 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.1359*4 = 0.5436(after split 2.5 = 0.2174), estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.89/10.9 (DPS 0.2 or 0.08)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.1291*4 = 0.5164, estimate highest/lowest PE = 12.24/6.29 (DPS 0.2)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.1188*4 = 0.4752, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.61/6.92 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q1 result announced = 0.1046*4 = 0.4184, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.29/6.74 (DPS 0.07)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2008 Q4 result announced = 0.107*4 = 0.428, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.99/6.17 (DPS 0.07)

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