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Monday, February 13, 2012

KLCI Stock - SCIENTX / 4731 - 2012 Quarter 1

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)611,800,000 (Medium)
Par ValueRM 0.50

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.66-0.12)/0.3836 = 6.62 (Moderate)
Target Price2.69+0.12 = 2.81 (PE 7.0, EPS 0.3836, DPS 0.12)
DecisionBUY if stock price around SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment
Revenue increased 4.2% and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 14.5%, eps decreased 0.7% but higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 21.5%, cash generated from operating and financing more than enough to cover all expenses, slightly weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from below moderate to moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, lower inventory can indicate sales slow down in Manufacturing division, lower property development cost also can indicate no new property development project
First Support Price2.5
Second Support Price2.25
Risk RatingMODERATE

Research House
TA Target Price2.9 (2011-12-28)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity16.14%
Dividend Yield4.51%
Profit Margin12.30%
Tax Rate18.62%
Asset Turnover1.0649
Net Asset Value Per Share2.27
Net Tangible Asset per share2.27
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.11
Cash Per Share0.36
Liquidity Current Ratio1.4646
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.9238
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.3561
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.515
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3227
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale12.1%
Days to sell the inventory59
Days to collect the receivables54
Days to pay the payables66

Technical Analysis 
SMA 202.543 (Uptrend 25 days)
SMA 502.462 (Uptrend)
SMA 1002.313 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.362 (Uptrend)
MACD0.075977 (Uptrend 9 days)
MACD Histogram0.016269 (Uptrend 78 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 1 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly due to growth from all division

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.0959*4 = 0.3836, estimate PE on current price 2.66 = 6.62(DPS 0.13)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0948*4*0.95 = 0.3602, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.69/5.55 (DPS 0.12)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0948*4*1.05 = 0.3982, estimate highest/lowest PE = 6.76/4.9 (DPS 0.05)

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