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Sunday, February 12, 2012

KLCI Stock - TM / 4863 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)17,386,173,622 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.86-0.229)/0.1566 = 29.57 (High)
Target Price4.38+0.229 = 4.61 (PE 28.0, EPS 0.1566, DPS 0.229)
DecisionTechinal BUY if stock price go up together with Bolinger upper band and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue increased 3.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.8%, eps increased 137.4% but lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 31.4%, cash generated from operating not enough for financing expenses hence increased borrowing and spent 4.4% of Group cash to cover the rest of expenses, better liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio from high to very high level now, payables ratio slightly high but still acceptable, most division growth, affected by strengthening of USD against RM from Sept 11 to Feb 12, chart technical outlook is good
First Support Price4.7
Second Support Price4.4

Research House
TA Target Price4.23 (2011-02-28)
Kenanga Target Price4.39 (2011-06-09)
CIMB Target Price4.92 (2011-07-27)
AMMB Target Price4 (2011-08-04)
HeangDBS Target Price5 (2011-09-28)
MIDF Target Price4.45 (2011-10-03)
ECM Target Price3.7 (2011-11-25)
Maybank Target Price4.84 (2011-11-25)
HLG Target Price4.54 (2012-01-03)
RHB Target Price5.85 (2012-01-06)
OSK Target Price5.5 (2012-01-10)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity14.21%
Dividend Yield4.71%
Profit Margin14.52%
Tax Rate6.32%
Asset Turnover0.4486
Net Asset Value Per Share1.78
Net Tangible Asset per share1.69
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.63
Cash Per Share1.05
Liquidity Current Ratio1.7666
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.6996
Liquidity Cash Ratio1.024
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.1428
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.6767
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale31.1%
Days to sell the inventory15
Days to collect the receivables95
Days to pay the payables218

Technical Analysis 
SMA 204.826 (Uptrend 4 days)
SMA 504.675 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.388 (Uptrend)
SMA 2004.056 (Uptrend)
MACD0.134997 (Downtrend 18 days)
MACD Histogram-0.023061 (Downtrend 13 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue mainly attributed to higher revenue from Internet and multimedia, data and non-telecommunications related services, which mitigated the impact of lower revenue from voice and other telecommunications related services

- Internet and multimedia services registered higher revenue than FY10Q3 arising from increased broadband and UniFi customers(1.71 million & 164,375 vs 1.60 million and 13,901)

- Higher revenue from data arising from demand for higher bandwidth services

- Non-telecommunications related services registered higher revenue from issuance of Yellow Pages for all regions as well as increased space rental revenue of subsidiaries

- Higher operating profit largely attributed to higher other gains from the disposal of investments. Current year quarter included RM283.5 million gain on disposal of Axiata shares as compared to gain on disposal of Measat and Axiata shares of RM141.7 million and RM10.6 million respectively in third quarter 2010

- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 primarily attributed to unrealised foreign exchange loss on borrowings

- Higher pbt than FY11Q2 mainly due to higher revenue and other gains net of unrealised foreign exchange loss on translation of foreign currency borrowings

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0356*4*1.1 = 0.1566(excluded disposal of Axiata shares of RM283.5 million and reduction of possible more foreign exchange loss), estimate PE on current price 4.86 = 29.57(DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0812*2*1.05 = 0.1705, estimate highest/lowest PE = 25.05/21.71 (DPS 0.229)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0457*4*1.05 = 0.1919, estimate highest/lowest PE = 20.42/18.18 (DPS 0.261)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0543*4 = 0.2172(exclude one time income and use average foreign exchange gain), estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.17/14.09 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0504*4*0.95 = 0.1814, estimate highest/lowest PE = 18.3/16.81 (DPS 0.26)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0606(average of recent 4Q eps)*4 = 0.2424, estimate highest/lowest PE = 13.9/12.46 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.0479*4 = 0.1916, estimate highest/lowest PE = 17.38/14.87 (DPS 0.23)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0505*4 = 0.202, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.54/13.71(DPS 0.22)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.2, estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.45/13.85 (DPS 0.22)

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