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Monday, February 6, 2012

KLCI Stock - JCY / 5161 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)2,903,701,200 (Large)
Par ValueRM 0.25

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now1.42/0.0494 = 28.74 (Moderate)
Target Price0.0494*29.0 = 1.43 (PE 29.0, EPS 0.0494)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue increased 11.3% but still lower than preceding quarter 7.3%, eps increased 182.7% and also higher than preceding quarter 204.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 29.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand improve, affect by weakening of USD against RM, benefit from improvement of average selling price
First Support Price1.2
Second Support Price1.1

Research House
UBS Target Price0.7 (2011-05-19)
RHB Target Price0.33 (2011-08-23)
CIMB Target Price1.54 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price1.26 (2012-01-05)
OSK Target Price1.48 (2012-01-05)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity1.64%
Dividend Yield-
Profit Margin6.01%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover1.2098
Net Asset Value Per Share0.43
Net Tangible Asset per share0.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share1.77
Cash Per Share0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio1.3634
Liquidity Quick Ratio0.898
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.1936
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.5585
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.3584
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale10.5%
Days to sell the inventory50
Days to collect the receivables74
Days to pay the payables57

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.208 (Uptrend 32 days)
SMA 500.934 (Uptrend)
SMA 1000.667 (Uptrend)
SMA 2000.573 (Uptrend)
MACD0.188455 (Uptrend 7 days)
MACD Histogram0.015772 (Uptrend 32 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY10Q4 due to the lower average selling price (ASP), lesser volume of shipments and unfavourable US Dollar exchange rate. Despite relatively high raw material cost and high labour cost resulting from shortage of workers in Malaysia, the Group managed to improve its margin and net profit from improving its operational efficiency and effective cost management

- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 due mainly to increase in volume of shipments. Likewise, the overall profitability also increased due to improvement in margin arising from operational efficiency, gain in foreign exchange and reduction in operational cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0103*1.2*4 = 0.0494, estimate PE on current price 1.42 = 28.74(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0061*1.1*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.38/14.09 (DPS 0.0075)

JCY latest news (English)

JCY latest news (Chinese)

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