KLCI Stock - JCY / 5161 - 2011 Quarter 4

Company Info

Market Capital (Capital Size)	2,903,701,200 (Large)
Par Value	RM 0.25

My Analysis

Forecast P/E now	1.42/0.0494 = 28.74 (Moderate)
Target Price	0.0494*29.0 = 1.43 (PE 29.0, EPS 0.0494)
Decision	Not interested unless stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Comment	Revenue increased 11.3% but still lower than preceding quarter 7.3%, eps increased 182.7% and also higher than preceding quarter 204.9%, cash generated from operating not enough to cover financing expenses hence increased borrowings and spent 29.6% of Group cash to cover other expenses, slightly better liquidity ratio at low level now, slightly lower gearing ratio at moderate level now, all accounting ratio are good, higher inventory can indicate Group products demand improve, affect by weakening of USD against RM, benefit from improvement of average selling price
First Support Price	1.2
Second Support Price	1.1
Risk Rating	MODERATE

Research House

UBS Target Price	0.7 (2011-05-19)
RHB Target Price	0.33 (2011-08-23)
CIMB Target Price	1.54 (2012-01-05)
HLG Target Price	1.26 (2012-01-05)
OSK Target Price	1.48 (2012-01-05)

Accounting Ratio

Return on Equity	1.64%
Dividend Yield	-
Profit Margin	6.01%
Tax Rate	-
Asset Turnover	1.2098
Net Asset Value Per Share	0.43
Net Tangible Asset per share	0.43
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share	1.77
Cash Per Share	0.05
Liquidity Current Ratio	1.3634
Liquidity Quick Ratio	0.898
Liquidity Cash Ratio	0.1936
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio	0.5585
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio	0.3584
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale	10.5%
Days to sell the inventory	50
Days to collect the receivables	74
Days to pay the payables	57

Technical Analysis

SMA 20	1.208 (Uptrend 32 days)
SMA 50	0.934 (Uptrend)
SMA 100	0.667 (Uptrend)
SMA 200	0.573 (Uptrend)
MACD	0.188455 (Uptrend 7 days)
MACD Histogram	0.015772 (Uptrend 32 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 4 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue than FY10Q4 due to the lower average selling price (ASP), lesser volume of shipments and unfavourable US Dollar exchange rate. Despite relatively high raw material cost and high labour cost resulting from shortage of workers in Malaysia, the Group managed to improve its margin and net profit from improving its operational efficiency and effective cost management

- Higher revenue than FY11Q3 due mainly to increase in volume of shipments. Likewise, the overall profitability also increased due to improvement in margin arising from operational efficiency, gain in foreign exchange and reduction in operational cost

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.0103*1.2*4 = 0.0494, estimate PE on current price 1.42 = 28.74(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0061*1.1*4 = 0.0268, estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.38/14.09 (DPS 0.0075)

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