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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

KLCI Stock - EKSONS / 9016 - 2012 Quarter 2

Company Info
Market Capital (Capital Size)177,350,040 (Small)
Par ValueRM 0.80

My Analysis
Forecast P/E now(1.08-0.05)/0.1206 = 8.54 (Moderate)
Target Price1.09+0.05 = 1.14 (PE 9.0, EPS 0.1206, DPS 0.05)
DecisionNot interested unless stock price below SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue decreased 56.6% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 44.4%, eps decreased 88.4% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 73.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover all expenses, weaker liquidity ratio but still at high level now, higher gearing ratio at below moderate level now, property division growing, timber division still unstable
First Support Price1.0
Second Support Price0.9

Research House
CIMB Target Price1.87 (2011-04-08)

Accounting Ratio
Return on Equity6.88%
Dividend Yield4.63%
Profit Margin6.43%
Tax Rate-
Asset Turnover0.6696
Net Asset Value Per Share2.31
Net Tangible Asset per share2.15
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share0.48
Cash Per Share0.56
Liquidity Current Ratio3.1907
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.33
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.9706
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.2477
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.1886
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale61.7%
Days to sell the inventory213
Days to collect the receivables33
Days to pay the payables34

Technical Analysis
SMA 201.052 (Uptrend 20 days)
SMA 501.035 (Same)
SMA 1001.056 (Same)
SMA 2001.133 (Downtrend)
MACD0.002847 (Uptrend 25 days)
MACD Histogram0.008535 (Uptrend 19 days)

My notes based on 2012 quarter 2 report (number in '000):-
- Lower revenue and pbt mainly due to Middle East and North Africa markets during the fasting month of Ramadan and the festive period(FY12Q1) and high stock levels in major plywood markets as well as economic uncertainties in Europe affected the global plywood market as buyers go into a cautious buying mode which saw demand for plywood down trending in recent months

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q2 result announced = 0.1206, estimate PE on current price 1.08 = 8.54(DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2012 Q1 result announced = 0.1206*1.2 = 0.1447, estimate highest/lowest PE = 7.74/6.53 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q4 result announced = 0.1096*1.1 = 0.1206, estimate highest/lowest PE = 10.74/7.96 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0261*4*1.05 = 0.1096, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.1/9.35 (DPS 0.025)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0334*4 = 0.1336(use profit margin 6% from 93k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.76/6.96 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0342*4 = 0.1368(use profit margin 8% from 70k revenue), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.04/6.51 (DPS 0.05) (Amendment)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.11*0.9 = 0.099(0.11 is year 2010 cum_eps excluded 9.9 million and 10% negative adjustment for those tax refund), estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.18/7 (DPS 0.05)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.11, estimate highest/lowest PE = 9.82/7.36 (DPS 0.02)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.1, estimate highest/lowest PE = 8.95/7.5 (DPS 0.02)

EKSONS latest news (English)

EKSONS Latest news (Chinese)

USD/MYR chart

Plywood Price Index

Plywood Price Chart

1 comment:

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