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Friday, February 3, 2012

KLCI Stock - MRCB / 1651 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Listing Date1971-03-22
Market Capital (Capital Size)3,105,352,514 (Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00
Major IndustryProperty Development
Sub IndustryConstruction & Project Management

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(2.24-0.015)/0.0811 = 27.44 (Moderate)
Target Price2.27+0.015 = 2.29 (PE 28.0, EPS 0.0811, DPS 0.015)
DecisionBUY if stock price near to SMA20 and got stronger buying volume than selling
Revenue increased 21.9% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 5.7%, eps decreased 43.8% and was third consecutive quarter decreasing but still higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 185.2%, no cash generated from operating and cash generated from borrowings also not enough to cover all expenses hence spent 49.4% of Group cash, stronger liquidity ratio at moderate level now, higher gearing ratio at very high level now, higher property development cost can indicate still good prospect from property development division
First Support Price2.1
Second Support Price2.0

Research House
OSK Target Price3.13 (2011-08-02)
Kenanga Target Price3.44 (2011-08-17)
UOB Target Price2.57 (2011-10-03)
HwangDBS Target Price3.25 (2011-11-01)
CIMB Target Price1.9 (2011-11-24)
AMMB Target Price2.13 (2011-12-07)
RHB Target Price2.55 (2011-12-07)
HLG Target Price2.22 (2012-01-10)
MIDF Target Price2.4 (2012-02-02)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity6.88%
Dividend Yield0.67%
Profit Margin5.75%
Tax Rate6.74%
Asset Turnover0.2366
Net Asset Value Per Share0.96
Net Tangible Asset per share0.92
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share2.05
Cash Per Share0.5
Liquidity Current Ratio2.4804
Liquidity Quick Ratio2.002
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.7993
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio2.703
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.7239
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale108.5%
Days to sell the inventory139
Days to collect the receivables317
Days to pay the payables280

Technical Analysis 
SMA 202.107 (Uptrend 29 days)
SMA 502.04 (Uptrend)
SMA 1001.965 (Uptrend)
SMA 2002.091 (Same)
MACD0.049493 (Uptrend 6 days)
MACD Histogram0.013898 (Uptrend 75 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue was due to higher contribution from the Group’s revenue recognition of ongoing and encouraging strata office sales of property development projects at Kuala Lumpur Sentral however lower revenue was noted from the infrastructure and environmental segment due to completion of existing environmental projects, with continuation of new phases which was recently approved but with limited preliminary work done

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = 0.0811, estimate PE on current price 2.24 = 27.44(DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = 0.0811, estimate highest/lowest PE = 28.91/18.06 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.0156*4*1.3 = 0.0811, estimate highest/lowest PE = 31.87/24.11 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 1067579*1.3*0.09/1380582 = 0.0905(profit margin per 9%, revenue yearly increase rate 30%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 26.02/21.49 (DPS 0.015)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0188*4*1.1 = 0.0827(profit margin 8%, revenue increase rate 20%), estimate highest/lowest PE = 29.02/22.61 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 5Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0129,0.0175,0.0202,0.0237,0.0313(calculation is based on receivables, revenue, 8% profit margin and 27% tax rate), exclude 0.0129 then cum_eps is 0.0927, estimate highest/lowest PE = 24.49/17.26 (DPS 0.01)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.0743, estimate highest/lowest PE = 23.96/18.03 (DPS 0.01)

MRCB latest news (English)

MRCB latest news (Chinese)

1 comment:

farm land investment said...

I love infrastructure stocks. Any company from an emerging market that plays in infrastructure is a great beta on worldwide growth in emerging markets!

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