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Thursday, February 9, 2012

KLCI Stock - AXIATA / 6888 - 2011 Quarter 3

Company Info 
Market Capital (Capital Size)42,081,921,263 (Very Large)
Par ValueRM 1.00

My Analysis 
Forecast P/E now(4.97-0.14)/0.3098 = 15.59 (Moderate)
Target Price5.11+0.14 = 5.25 (PE 16.5, EPS 0.3098, DPS 0.14)
DecisionBUY if stock price near to SMA20
Revenue increased 3.6% and was second consecutive quarter increasing and also higher than preceding year corresponding quarter 6.5%, eps decreased 11.1% and also lower than preceding year corresponding quarter 7.7%, cash generated from operating more than enough to cover financing expenses and also got borrowing to cover investing expenses, weaker liquidity ratio at low level now, higher gearing ratio at above moderate level now, high payables ratio
First Support Price4.8
Second Support Price4.6

Research House
Credit Suisse Target Price6.1 (2011-03-30)
CIMB Target Price5.8 (2011-08-24)
JF Apex Target Price5.29 (2011-08-24)
Kenanga Target Price5.45 (2011-08-24)
TA Target Price5.95 (2011-08-24)
UOB Target Price5.5 (2011-08-24)
ECM Target Price5.76 (2011-12-01)
Maybank Target Price5.1 (2011-12-01)
Affin Target Price4.39 (2011-12-02)
RHB Target Price5.15 (2011-12-13)
HLG Target Price4.92 (2012-01-18)
MIDF Target Price5.85 (2012-01-30)
HwangDBS Target Price4.8 (2012-02-03)
OSK Target Price5.6 (2012-02-03)
AMMB Target Price6.08 (2012-02-08)

Accounting Ratio 
Return on Equity6.71%
Dividend Yield2.82%
Profit Margin22.97%
Tax Rate29.50%
Asset Turnover0.4046
Net Asset Value Per Share2.28
Net Tangible Asset per share1.38
Price/Net Tangible Asset Per Share3.7
Cash Per Share0.8
Liquidity Current Ratio1.1727
Liquidity Quick Ratio1.1316
Liquidity Cash Ratio0.8661
Gearing Debt to Equity Ratio0.9773
Gearing Debt to Asset Ratio0.4718
Working capital per thousand Ringgit sale8.4%
Days to sell the inventory20
Days to collect the receivables39
Days to pay the payables326

Technical Analysis 
SMA 204.857 (Uptrend 1 day)
SMA 504.872 (Uptrend)
SMA 1004.773 (Uptrend)
SMA 2004.773 (Uptrend)
MACD-0.001899 (Uptrend 1 day)
MACD Histogram-0.024103 (Downtrend 15 days)

My notes based on 2011 quarter 3 report (number in '000):-
- Higher revenue due to higher prepaid and postpaid revenue from Robi Axiata Limited, higher prepaid and global revenue from Dialog Axiata Group, increase in subscriber base from XL and increase in broadband subscribers and increase in revenue generating base customers from Celcom Axiata Berhad

- The fluctuation of Ringgit (RM) against local currencies of OpCo had unfavourably affected the overall Group’s translated revenue. At constant currency using Q3’10 exchange rate, the Group revenue would have registered a higher growth of 8.3%, quarter-on-quarter

- Lower pbt than FY10Q3 mainly due to one-off gain on disposal of shares in XL

- Lower pbt than FY11Q2 mainly arising from strengthening of USD against local currencies which recorded foreign exchange losses of RM53.1 million in Q3’11 as compared to foreign exchange gains of RM30.2 million in Q2’11, and lower contribution from Celcom and XL

- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q3 result announced = (0.0781+0.0694)*2*1.05 = 0.3098, estimate PE on current price 4.97 = 15.59(DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q2 result announced = (0.0781+0.0645)*2*1.05 = 0.2995, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.56/14.32 (DPS 0.14)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2011 Q1 result announced = 0.3024, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.93/14.62 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q4 result announced = 0.072*4*1.05 = 0.3024, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.47/15.08 (DPS 0.1)
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q3 result announced = 0.0752*4*1.05 = 0.3158, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.12/13.93
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q2 result announced = 0.0681*4*1.05 = 0.286, estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.29/15.24
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2010 Q1 result announced = 0.265(no adjustment due to higher profit is from non-repeatable income), estimate highest/lowest PE = 16.98/13.89
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q4 result announced = 0.631(average recent 3 quarter)*4 = 0.2524+(0.05*0.2524) = 0.265(5% grow from 0.2524), estimate highest/lowest PE = 15.28/13.21
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q3 result announced = 0.0595*4 = 0.238, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.71/12.61
- Estimate next 4Q eps after 2009 Q2 result announced = 0.0579*4 = 0.2316, estimate highest/lowest PE = 14.12/12.52

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